The most pivotal games left this season, and an ode to John Madden
With only two weeks to go in the regular season, there's still a lot to be decided — and several important contests in Week 17. Plus, we say goodbye to a giant of the football world.
Last week, the Cowboys clinched a postseason berth a few days before they played thanks to the 49ers’ loss to the Titans. Then, the Cowboys won their division before their Sunday night kickoff due to some convoluted tiebreaker that required the Raiders to beat the Broncos.
So two games, one that pitted an NFC West team against an AFC South team and another between two AFC West rivals, directly impacted the NFC East race.
Similarly, each one of the 32 games remaining in the regular season is meaningful in one way or another. Even if, in the case of Giants-Bears, its significance is mostly about draft positioning.
But we still have two more weeks to go until the playoffs begin, and the college football postseason hasn’t even kicked into high gear yet — I’m not quite ready to turn my attention to the 2022 draft. Instead, I’d like to focus on the playoff picture, which has quite a bit left to be decided: specifically, eight open spots and all 14 seeds.
Because a few Week 18 contests might have more or less relevance depending on the results from Week 17, I decided to single out the most important matchups facing us this weekend only. Let’s dive in.
Chiefs at Bengals
The Bengals are fresh off a dominant performance over the Ravens, putting Cincinnati in the driver’s seat in the AFC North. The good news is the Bengals are one win away from their first division crown since 2015. The bad news is that their next opponent just so happens to be the hottest team in the league and the reigning AFC champs.
While the Chiefs have already secured a playoff spot and their sixth straight AFC West title, they remain in play for the No. 1 seed in the conference, and the first-round bye and homefield advantage that come with it. Kansas City can clinch the top seed for the second year in a row if it beats the Cincinnati and the Titans lose.
The Chiefs are rounding into form at just the right time. They’re riding an eight-game winning streak, and the offense, which had gone cold for a stretch, has averaged more than 37 points the last three weeks. Travis Kelce should be back in the lineup this week too.
The Bengals, despite their impressive win over the Ravens, will be home underdogs. They haven’t been consistent enough to get the benefit of the doubt against the AFC’s standard bearer, and the Bengals also haven’t been in a situation quite like this in years. The Chiefs, however, have plenty of experience with high-profile, must-win games. If the Bengals pull off the upset, they won’t just be the kings of the AFC North. They’ll also prove that they should be considered a real threat in the postseason.
Dolphins at Titans
Early this season, the Dolphins lost seven in a row. Since then, they’ve won seven in a row, the first team in NFL history to do both in the same season. Their recent streak has vaulted them into the final wild card spot in the AFC. If they can finish the year on a nine-game winning streak, then the Dolphins will make the postseason for the first time since 2016.
It won’t be easy, though. Miami ends the season with two other playoff-likely opponents: Tennessee and New England.
It’s also difficult to tell how good the Dolphins really are. Only one of their victories during this stretch has come against a team that currently has a winning record (the Ravens). Even though their defense is a top-10 DVOA unit, the offense and special teams rank in the bottom third of the league. A loss in Tennessee alone wouldn’t eliminate Miami from the postseason, but it would drop its chances down to 6 percent, per the NY Times. And, a Dolphins loss, plus wins by the Patriots, Raiders, and Chargers, would put the nail in their coffin.
While the Titans have been a roller coaster all season, the return of A.J. Brown proved to be the jump-start their offense needed. They rallied to beat the 49ers — their first quality win in more than a month — last week thanks in large part to Brown’s contributions (11 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown).
A win on Sunday would give the Titans their second straight AFC South title and would also keep them alive in the No. 1 seed race. On the other hand, a loss could, depending on the results of their respective games, clinch the top seed for the Chiefs and keep the Colts in contention in the division.
Raiders at Colts
The Colts have been on a tear since losing to the Titans for a second time. They’re 6-1 in that span, with their only blemish a last-minute loss to the Bucs. As a result, they’re one win away from making the playoffs.
However, they’ve been hit hard by Covid the last two weeks and it’s uncertain if quarterback Carson Wentz will be cleared to play on Sunday. Unfortunately, the “personal decision” of Wentz and others in the Colts locker room — and, via rumors, the misinformation shared among their mommy blogger-esque wives — could now negatively impact their playoff chances. But Wentz and the team could also benefit from the NFL’s new rule that only requires players to quarantine five days after a positive test.
The Colts were without a few key players last week and still managed to take down the Cardinals, though. So the Raiders should expect a challenge either way.
Despite currently sitting in the No. 11 spot in the AFC standings, the Raiders are in the playoffs if they win out:
That’s possible but tricky. Vegas has won its last two games (by a total of six points) and hasn’t strung together more than three consecutive wins this season. And even if the Raiders get by the Colts, their final game is against the Chargers, who already beat them earlier this year.
In that scenario, a loss to the Chargers would put the Raiders’ chances of getting to the postseason around 9 percent. If they lose to the Colts, that number would only be 7 percent. And a Raiders loss this week, plus wins by the Chargers and Ravens, would eliminate them completely.
Eagles at Washington
The NFC East winner has already been decided. Washington could win out and still miss the postseason — NY Times pegged its chances in that situation at 22 percent. But its Sunday date with the Eagles still matters to the overall playoff picture. To even have a shot at the postseason, WFT needs to do what it couldn’t do two weeks ago when it was forced to turn to Garrett Gilbert at quarterback due to a Covid outbreak: beat Philadelphia.
The Eagles, who are holding on to the final wild card spot in the NFC, control their own destiny. They’ll be in the playoffs if they win their last two games and could clinch with a victory over Washington if a couple other games go their way:
Even if they lose once — they host a rematch against the Cowboys in Week 18 — the Eagles still have a 70+ chance of making the field. That’s because they own a one-game lead over the teams right behind them in the standings: the 7-8 Vikings, Falcons, and Saints. Of those three, the Saints are probably the likeliest to win out, but only if they don’t have to start Ian Book.
However, if the Eagles lose out, their postseason odds will plummet to 5 percent.
Playoff implications aside, Washington should have plenty of motivation. The team was embarrassed in primetime this past week, both on the field and on the sideline:
It can keep its faint playoff hopes alive with a victory and put a dent in a rival’s own playoff hopes. It’s maybe not the nicest way to repay the Eagles for “tanking” in the final week of the 2020 season to hand Washington the division, but all’s fair in love and football.
Cardinals at Cowboys
Unlike every other matchup on this list, the Cardinals and Cowboys have already clinched a playoff bid. Seeding is on the line both, though, and so is a little something else.
As of now, the Cowboys rank second in the NFC, but they can end up with any seed from No. 1 to No. 4. If they win both of their last two games, the worst seed they can lock up is No. 3:
Dallas has rebounded from a rocky stretch in November; since the start of December, the Cowboys are 4-0. What they haven’t been able to secure is a win over a playoff-bound team. Their last victory over an opponent that currently has a winning record came against the Patriots in Week 6. Beating the Cardinals, even a slumping Cardinals team, would change that and perhaps give the Cowboys a confidence boost heading into the postseason.
The Cardinals need a confidence boost even more. They’ve fallen from the No. 1 spot in the NFC to No. 5 in the midst of their three-game skid. Their play during this time has been defined by boneheaded mistakes and missed opportunities, while Kyler Murray has thrown just two touchdowns compared to three interceptions.
It must feel like deja vu for Arizona fans, who saw their team go from contenders to missing the playoffs during the second half of the season last year. Then, the Cardinals went 2-5 in the last seven weeks of the season. Now, they’re 2-4 over the last six weeks.
There’s still time for them to get right before Wild Card Weekend, but that time is quickly dwindling. Getting back to their first-half selves — the team that began the year 7-0 — in Dallas on Sunday would be a good place to start.
Browns at Steelers
The Browns and Steelers could both be eliminated from AFC North contention before this year’s Monday Night Football finale. If the Bengals beat the Chiefs, then the Browns and Steelers have no shot at the division title and would all-but-officially be out of the playoff conversation.
If the favored Chiefs win, though, then the division will be up for grabs heading into the final week. And the winner of Steelers-Browns could be the AFC North champs if they win in Week 18 and the Bengals lose again (depending on what happens to the Ravens).
The Browns would have a direct say in the matter regardless, because they play host to the Bengals in Week 18. That matchup will either be for all the marbles or simply for Ohio bragging rights.
In the event that the Bengals do clinch the division this Sunday, then the Browns and Steelers still have something to pay for on Monday night in Pittsburgh. This could very well be Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game of his career (for the love of god, please let it be). The Steelers, coming off a humbling loss to the Chiefs, have a chance to send the winningest quarterback in franchise history out on a high note.
Or, the Browns could exact a little rare revenge against the quarterback who has been a thorn in their side for almost two decades. Roethlisberger, an Ohio native, is 25-2-1 against the Browns in the regular season — the highest number of wins he has against any opponent in his career. For as frustrating as this season has been for Cleveland, spoiling Big Ben’s swan song would almost make up for all 2021’s disappointment. — SH
A quick ode to John Madden
John Madden passed away Tuesday, three days after FOX’s special ode to him aired on Christmas Day. You’ll find no small amount of tribute there, or online the next few days, or during NFL and college football broadcasts this weekend. Madden was one of the biggest figures in football, which is especially notable considering his time as an employee in the NFL lasted only one decade.
But if there’s one thing we’re going to remember about the man, it’s this. Everything he touched turned to gold, because he didn’t pick up anything he didn’t 100 percent believe in.
Madden was so enjoyable and so simultaneously good at his job that Al Davis genuinely liked him. He turned a Raider team of misfits so thoroughly rough around the edges that franchise teams five decades later still get stereotyped at the hint of a dirty play and turned them into Super Bowl champions. His success was not a one off; he was not Jon Gruden. He was John Fucking Madden:
In the gap between coaching and providing color commentary for national NFL broadcasts, he took a detour to plow through walls to hawk shitty beer. With his help, light beer stretched past the expiration date of a fad and became the dominant force in American brewing.
Madden understood the seriousness it takes to understand the moving parts of professional football and the lack of seriousness needed to connect with an audience watching at home. He is the voice inside the heads of millions of people across the globe whenever they see a linebacker step into a hole and drive his shoulder into a running back. BOOM!
That attention to detail also led him to be more than just an idle name on the front of a Commodore 64 game box. Madden played an active role in laying out the blueprints for the football franchise that bears his name and revolutionized the way we view sports video games. He was an unassailable spokesman — knowledgeable, credible, and approachable. He wasn’t a superhero athlete, he was the goofy uncle we looked forward to seeing every Thanksgiving even though he’d fart himself awake on the couch afterward.
In a game of Taboo where the key word is NFL, “Madden” might not make the list of the five prohibited words you can’t say lest the game get too easy — but he’d be pretty damn close. He was never a salesman, but he never stopped selling. And because he truly cared about the things he poured his life into, we trusted him and welcomed him into our homes despite knowing nothing about him aside from his fear of flying and love of cooked birds stuffed inside cooked birds stuffed inside cooked birds.
John Madden died Tuesday and football will continue turning without his physical presence. But his personality was baked into the game a long time ago. And like the chicken buried deep inside a duck buried in the hollows of a turkey, it’s a structural piece of a complex dish that couldn’t possibly be the same without it. — CD