The struggle of Week 15 picks is real
We, along with a special guest, tried to navigate this minefield of a week.
Once again, it’s already been a whirlwind week in the NFL before most of the games have even been played.
The Jaguars dumped Urban Meyer, one of the biggest head-coaching failures in NFL history. More than 100 players tested positive for Covid, and the outbreak (many involving vaccinated and asymptomatic personnel) led to the NFL tweaking its rules. The Washington Post reported Dan Snyder tried to block the NFL from interviewing a woman who accused the WFT owner of sexual misconduct (he settled a $1.6 million lawsuit with the accused, a former employee).
And in lighter news, we’re still waiting for teams to clinch playoff spots, only the third time in the last 43 years when there have been no berths locked down heading into Week 15.
That should change this weekend, since a few teams — the Bucs, Packers, and Cardinals — face “win-and-in” scenarios. But then again, you never know what this season will bring next.
This week, we’re back to a 16-game schedule and for the first time all season, we have two Saturday contests. There are several double-digit favorites in Week 15, but the lines will likely continue to change as more players are added to or activated off of the Covid list. Let’s take a look at the odds, as of Thursday night from DraftKings, for the 15 remaining games (the favored team is in bold):
Raiders at Browns (+3.5)
Patriots at Colts (-2.5)
Cowboys at Giants (+11)
Texans at Jaguars (-3.5)
Titans at Steelers (+1)
Panthers at Bills (-11)
Cardinals at Lions (+12.5)
Jets at Dolphins (-9.5)
Washington at Eagles (-9.5)
Bengals at Broncos (-2.5)
Falcons at 49ers (-9)
Packers at Ravens (+5.5)
Seahawks at Rams (-5.5)
Saints at Bucs (-11)
Vikings at Bears (+6)
Although Sarah and Christian will continue to highlight select matchups this week, we have a special guest stopping by who will pick all of the games. Sarah is trying to beat the Christmas rush by visiting family this week and doesn’t have as much time as usual to write up detailed analysis of her predictions. So she recruited a younger family member to pitch in. We’ll get things started with his picks.
Hudson’s picks
Please welcome Hudson to the Post Route. Hudson, who is Sarah’s cousin, will turn 12 in a couple weeks, which is strange because it was just yesterday that she was waiting at the hospital for him to be born.
Hudson’s favorite NFL team is the Bengals, but he’s a huge sports fan in general. He follows all the latest news and was completely up for the task of making picks this week, even though no one really knows who will even be available at game time.
Unfortunately, Hudson has already fallen victim to the Chargers curse — he picked them to top the Chiefs, but they let Patrick Mahomes come back to tie it in regulation, then beat them in overtime. Here’s who he decided to take for the rest of the Week 15’s matchups:
Raiders at Browns
Patriots at Colts
Titans at Steelers
Panthers at Bills
Washington at Eagles
Texans at Jaguars
Cowboys at Giants
Cardinals at Lions
Jets at Dolphins
Bengals at Broncos
Falcons at 49ers
Seahawks at Rams
Packers at Ravens
Saints at Buccaneers
Vikings at Bears
Hudson mostly sided with the favorites, but his upset picks are strategic. The Patriots have the longest winning streak in the NFL while the Colts have just two wins over teams that currently have winning records (the Niners and Bills). The Bengals, despite their inconsistency this season, have a higher ceiling than the similarly inconsistent Broncos. The Rams could be missing half their roster due to Covid and, as we know, anyone can beat anyone in the NFC West. The Bears gave the Packers a scare last week (at least through the first half) and even with their struggles this season, they never had to suffer the indignity of losing to the Lions like the Vikings did.
All together, Hudson’s picks look pretty good to us — he might have a future in this. Thanks for helping us out, Hudson!
Sarah’s picks
As mentioned, my time is limited this week, so I’m going to do my version of a two-minute drill with my picks.
You should feel most confident in these picks
Cowboys over Giants: Are the Giants still starting Mike Glennon? Yes? Then expect the Cowboys to get their 10th win of the season.
Eagles over Washington: Is anyone healthy for Washington? Seriously, anyone?
Bucs over Saints: The Saints, with Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian, got the Bucs the first time they met. I don’t think they’ll do it again, especially with Taysom Hill at quarterback.
You should feel least confident in these picks
Raiders vs. Browns: This is either going to be like the Browns’ loss to the Jets last year, when all their wide receivers went on the Covid list, or like their victory the next week over the Steelers, when they needed a win to make the playoffs. Without knowing who will be cleared to play, I … kinda like the Browns in a near must-win game? I guess?
Patriots vs. Colts: If this one comes down to the wire, the Patriots will likely win. The Colts are 1-4 in one-possession games, with their only such win coming against the Jaguars. The Patriots have to lose again at some point (right?), so I’m leaning slightly toward the Colts. But maybe that’s wishful thinking and/or the Hard Knocks effect.
Texans vs. Jaguars: On the one hand, the Jaguars should get the “ding dong, our awful coach is gone” bump. On the other hand, they’ve already lost to the Texans once this year and their interim coach is now Darrell Bevell. I’ll take the Jags due to the post-coach firing factor, but I really do not wish to think any more about the most poop emoji game since Jags-Titans in 2014.
Why these are potential upset picks
Well, I juuuust missed on my upset picks last week — the Bengals and Bills both lost in overtime. I’m at least giving the Bengals a second chance, though considering I’m also siding with the underdog Browns this week, maybe I’m putting too much faith in Ohio’s teams.
Bengals vs. Broncos: The Bengals are at least consistent in their inconsistency: In their last eight games, they’ve won two in a row, lost two in a row, won two in a row, and lost two in a row. That means they’re due for a win, especially since they should’ve beaten the 49ers last week. And they probably — probably — won’t be plagued by as many self-inflicted wounds again. Plus, Trey Hendrickson, their leader in sacks, should return to the lineup.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have been alternating between wins and losses for the past five weeks, so if that pattern holds, a loss in the cards for them. But it’s not like they’re all that trustworthy either. Both teams will be hungry for a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and if this game comes down to which team can score the quickest, or which quarterback can rally his offense, then the Bengals have the edge.
Christian’s picks
Welp, this week is a minefield. Not only are we beset by a messy playoff race that throws simple picks into question, but now we’ve got a rash of COVID-19 absences tearing through starting lineups and swinging betting lines all over the map. I’m not sure anyone’s got a good grip on this weekend, but hell, let’s see what we can do.
Pick I like the most
Minnesota Vikings (-200) over the Chicago Bears
That number on the Vikings was from early Thursday, before Allen Robinson and Eddie Jackson hit the Covid reserve. Even with those guys playing, it was way too low for Minnesota.
Chicago is a bad team playing out the final four weeks of Matt Nagy’s head coaching career. Its only purpose over the next month is to give Justin Fields some quality reps and leave fans with the hope that the guy who takes over in 2022 can make him the franchise quarterback for whom Illinois has waited three decades. The defense is mostly uninterested in making tackles and, yeah, I get that. Collisions suck.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is still in the NFC’s jumbled playoff hunt. That’s the division that let Mitchell Trubisky win NVP honors in last year’s Wild Card Round. The Vikings have something to play for and a tough non-Bears schedule remaining (vs. Rams, at Packers). For them to get to their prescribed 8-9 record and make Mike Zimmer the Northwoods version of Jeff Fisher, they’ll likely have to sweep the season series with the Bears.
And they will, starting Monday.
Pick I overthought, so you should probably fade it
Jacksonville Jaguars (-220) over the Houston Texans
This was originally a Texans pick, but Jacksonville’s ability to do the bare minimum in the face of crisis has earned it an ever-so-slight sliver of my confidence. These two teams met to kick off the Urban Meyer era in Week 1 and set the perfect tone for it: a 16-point loss for the Jags as three-point favorites. Now the players who so validly despised the used car salesman posing as an NFL head coach can prove they’re significantly better off without him (they are).
Standing in their way is a Texans team that was supposed to be the laughing stock Jacksonville is, but has exceeded expectations by being merely bad and not a trainwreck as it puts the Bill O’Brien era — which looks like ‘Bama compared to the Meyer disaster — in its rear view. Lately, however, they’ve looked like the perfect companion piece to the Jags’ season of sadness.
Houston beat the Titans in Week 10 despite getting outgained 420 yards to 190, then embarked on a three-game losing streak where it scored 27 total points. Davis Mills threw for 331 yards in his last game, but his presence in the offense seems to have zero effect on the outcome of the game; the Texans lose by double digits whether he’s throwing for 300+ or 87 yards. He’ll have a chance to crack Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked passing defense, but this season’s final scores suggest it won’t matter.
I’m not the only one riding a Jacksonville post-Urban bounce. This line has flown up from -140 to -220 in 10 hours since news broke about the team’s interim coach situation. Even if that doesn’t hold true, the Jaguars found a way to make a Week 15 game between two 2-11 teams interesting. They deserve credit for that.
Upset pick I like the most
Cleveland Browns (+165) over Las Vegas Raiders
This is a barren field in Week 15. The Patriots are technically a slight underdog in Indianapolis Saturday night, but they’ll hit Jonathan Taylor with the league’s sixth-ranked rushing defense and baffle Carson Wentz with the third-ranked passing D (take the under). Washington was a great pick but since half its defense is sick, it’s gone from a 2.5-point underdog to 9.5 points and taken any confidence along with it. I have no faith in the Bengals, and there’s no point in ever betting on a Seahawks-Rams matchup because the only guarantee is that the game will not turn out how you expect or even how a normal football game turns out, ever.
That leaves me backing Cleveland, since I’m not going to touch the Jets, Falcons, Giants, Panthers, or Lions. The Browns will be missing several key players due to COVID but already have a win over one middle-road AFC West team at home with Case Keenum at quarterback (over the Broncos, 17-14, in Week 7). Downgrading to Nick Mullens, if they have to, may not be that much of a step down!
They’ll be down a few members of their secondary, but the Raiders’ passing game has been a heaping scoop of nothing since Henry Ruggs committed what appears to be at the very least vehicular manslaughter. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney are, as of Thursday night, still healthy and capable of giving Derek Carr nightmares. Nick Chubb might run for 200 yards.
It’s a flimsy pick, but this is an awful week for upset picks when COVID-19 is slingshotting lines all over the place. If there’s one team I can expect to survive chaos, it’s the franchise born in a cauldron of it. Browns by three.