NFL Week 13: A long December
We got a little more clarity on the playoff races this week, but there's still a ways to go until we know who will be left standing.
Tempers flared around the NFL on Sunday. Dre Greenlaw got into it with the Eagles’ security guy, “Big Dom,” who looks exactly like how you would expect him to based on that nickname. Both were ejected.
So were Brian Burns and Isiah Pacheco, who threw punches in separate games. Alex Singleton was merely flagged for pushing C.J. Stroud, but it did turn what probably would have been a field goal try into a touchdown for the Texans.
It was a pretty ugly day in the league in general, as we were also subjected to a number of major injuries, poor officiating, and more god-awful Jets QB play.
To give myself and anyone reading this newsletter a break from reliving the worst of Week 13, I’d like to do something a little different with my Monday morning post. This week, I’m going to take a closer look at the most competitive playoff races, a topic that I always enjoy (and hope you do as well).
Admittedly, the division battles across the NFL are lacking in drama this season. Only two — the NFC East and NFC South — are within one game. Luckily for us, the races for the No. 1 seeds and the wild card spots are headed for an exciting finish.
(Also luckily for us is that the NFL format is nothing like college football’s, so we’re spared the controversy of leaving out an undefeated Power 5 conference champion.)
First, let’s see what the playoff standings looked like as entered Week 13.
AFC, pre-Week 13
1. Ravens (9-3)
2. Chiefs (8-3)
3. Jaguars (8-3)
4. Dolphins (8-3)
5. Steelers (7-4)
6. Browns (7-4)
7. Colts (6-5)
In the hunt: Texans (6-5), Broncos (6-5), Bills (6-6)
NFC, pre-Week 13
1. Eagles (10-1)
2. 49ers (8-3)
3. Lions (8-3)
4. Falcons (5-6)
5. Cowboys (8-3)
6. Seahawks (6-5)
7. Vikings (6-6)
In the hunt: Packers (5-6), Rams (5-6), Saints (5-6), Bucs (4-7)
Now here’s how things stand after Sunday, with only Jaguars-Bengals left in the week.
AFC, post-Week 13 Sunday
1. Dolphins (9-3)
2. Ravens (9-3)
3. Jaguars (8-3)
4. Chiefs (8-4)
5. Steelers (7-5)
6. Browns (7-5)
7. Colts (7-5)
In the hunt: Texans (7-5), Broncos (6-6), Bills (6-6)
NFC, post-Week 13 Sunday
1. Eagles (10-2)
2. 49ers (9-3)
3. Lions (9-3)
4. Falcons (6-6)
5. Cowboys (9-3)
6. Vikings (6-6)
7. Packers (6-6)
In the hunt: Rams (6-6), Seahawks (6-6), Bucs (5-7), Saints (5-7)
It’s still early December, so these standings will undoubtedly change as the month rolls along. But who helped themselves the most in Week 13, and what does that mean going forward? Let’s examine it further.
AFC No. 1 seed contenders
Based on the NY Times’ playoff simulator, this is a tight race between the Dolphins (28%), Ravens (25%), Jaguars (25%), and Chiefs (22%).
Miami Dolphins
What they did in Week 13: They cruised to a 45-15 win over the Commanders, the first time they scored more than 40 points since Week 6 against the Panthers and their first turnover-free game since their demolition of the Broncos in Week 4. The Dolphins also broke out a roller coaster-themed touchdown celebration, arguably the best of the season in the NFL.
Why they will clinch the No. 1 seed: Can anyone slow down Tyreek Hill? The speedy receiver is gaining MVP buzz after his eighth 100+ yard receiving performance. On Sunday, he lit up the Commanders for 157 yards and two touchdowns — one for 78 yards and another for 60 yards — on just five catches. Hill isn’t just on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record, either. He’s also on pace to become the first NFL player in league history to total 2,000 receiving yards in a season.
Plus, Miami’s defense has been coming on strong lately. After allowing nearly 30 points per game in the first month of the year, that number is down to 18.4 points in the weeks since. The Dolphins have also forced at least one turnover in six consecutive contests.
Why they won’t clinch the No. 1 seed: The Dolphins have yet to beat an opponent with a winning record this season — and haven’t done so since Week 3 of 2022. Their final three games are all against quality competition, too: the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills.
Baltimore Ravens
What they did in Week 13: Bye
Why they will clinch the No. 1 seed: The Ravens have held steady at No. 1 in overall DVOA since late October, thanks to their top-five offense and defense. They’ve lost three games by a total of 12 points — and led going into the fourth quarter in each one. Simply put, Baltimore does not get blown out.
Why they won’t clinch the No. 1 seed: Their five remaining opponents are all .500 or better. In fact, they have a brutal three-week stretch coming up against the Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins, who are all contending for a top seed in their conference.
Jacksonville Jaguars
What they did in Week 13: They’ll play the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night.
Why they will clinch the No. 1 seed: Other than a Sunday night showdown with the Ravens in a couple weeks, the Jaguars have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. The non-Lamar Jackson quarterbacks they’ll be facing include backups (Jake Browning, whoever the Browns start), rookies (Bryce Young, Will Levis), and Baker Mayfield.
Why they won’t clinch the No. 1 seed: Jacksonville is not the most battle-tested team near the top of the AFC. The Jags’ only wins against above-.500 opponents have come against division rivals (Colts twice, Texans) and the Steelers, while it hasn’t even been a month since the 49ers blew the doors off of them.
Kansas City Chiefs
What they did in Week 13: They fell to the Packers after being unable to stage a late rally at two different points in the last six minutes. Most notably, the final drive, when the Chiefs had a chance to potentially force overtime, was a mess for everyone involved.
Why they will clinch the No. 1 seed: Because this is what they do. KC has claimed three of the last five No. 1 seeds and has hosted five straight AFC title games. Patrick Mahomes? Still the quarterback. Andy Reid? Still the coach. I would never count them out.
Why they won’t clinch the No. 1 seed: The Chiefs have been up and down recently, alternating wins and losses in the last six weeks. There are plenty of reasons for that: a banged-up defense, a slow-starting offense, and a lack of reliable weapons for Mahomes outside of Travis Kelce.
AFC wild card contenders
Despite the current standings, the Texans (78%) and Colts (67%) have the highest chances of making the postseason, followed by the Browns (60%), Steelers (53%), Broncos (21%), and Bills (14%).
Pittsburgh Steelers
What they did in Week 13: They lost at home to the Cardinals for the first time since 1969, in a game marred by bad weather, an injury to Kenny Pickett, and way too many penalties.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: As terrible as the Steelers looked on Sunday, they haven’t played particularly watchable football at all this season — and still have found ways to grind out wins. And they can keep it up starting in Week 14. Although Pickett will be out this Thursday, Pittsburgh will be going up against an even worse offense than its own: New England’s, which scored zero points against the Chargers this week and managed a combined 13 points in the two weeks prior.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: The Steelers’ final two home games (vs. Pats, Bengals) might be easy, with or without Pickett. Their final three road games (at Colts, Seahawks, and Ravens) will all be challenging, even if Pickett is good to go by then.
Cleveland Browns
What they did in Week 13: They lost to the Rams in a game that was close until late in the fourth quarter. A couple of mistakes in the last 6+ minutes made the final score, 36-19, look worse than it was.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: Joe Flacco, in his Browns debut, was pretty solid, minus a fourth-quarter interception that all but sealed the loss. Flacco was 23 of 44 for 254 yards, two touchdowns, and the pick, the kind of performance that can help stabilize Cleveland’s offense if he can deliver it each week.
The normally stout defense wasn’t at its best this week, but a not-100 percent Myles Garrett still played — and lost his helmet to a Rams player — and Denzel Ward’s eventual (?) return will boost the secondary.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: I mean, this is the Cleveland Browns we’re talking about. They of course can fart away their season over the last five weeks. My biggest concern for them, other than their cursed existence, is the health of the team, which also lost Amari Cooper for the second half against the Rams due to a head injury.
Indianapolis Colts
What they did in Week 13: They handed the Titans their first loss in Nashville this season, a wackadoodle thriller that ended in a walk-off touchdown in overtime.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: The Colts have found a nice rhythm since dropping three straight at the end of October. Since then, they’ve reeled off four wins in a row and seem to have settled into a flow on both offense and defense. Even better news is that their schedule is one of the easiest remaining in the entire NFL, featuring exactly one matchup against a quarterback who has been his team’s full-time starter this year: rookie C.J. Stroud and the Texans, who lost in Indy back in Week 2. (That’s assuming that Kenny Pickett is still out in two weeks when the Steelers and Colts play.)
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: Their current streak has come against all teams with losing records, including the one-win Panthers and two-win Patriots. Their upcoming schedule may not be difficult, but there aren’t any gimme victories in there. Stroud and the Texans, in particular, are much better than they were in September. And to be honest, the Colts were a little lucky to beat the Titans this week — not the first time they’ve benefited from their opponent making unforced errors.
Houston Texans
What they did in Week 13: They held off the Broncos, with Jimmie Ward picking off Russell Wilson in the end zone to preserve the five-point win and snap Denver’s five-game winning streak.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: C.J. Stroud continues to make impossible throws each week and elevate the playmakers around him — this week, it was Nico Collins (191 yards) and backup tight end Brevin Jordan (64 yards) with a career high in receiving yards. But I don’t want to overlook the defense, which has made great strides this season. The younger guys are starting to come on, too. Second-year corner Derek Stingley Jr. missed time earlier this season after dealing with a hamstring injury, but since he’s been back, he’s recorded four interceptions, including two against Wilson on Sunday. Rookie pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. also came up big, sacking Wilson twice and adding two more tackles for loss.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: The offense keeps suffering major injuries every week. Last week, starting guard Tytus Howard was lost for the season. This week, it was rookie sensation Tank Dell, who had emerged as Stroud’s favorite target. Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz have been in and out of the lineup, as well. That puts a lot of pressure on Stroud, first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, and the still-developing defense as they enter the home stretch of the season.
Denver Broncos
What they did in Week 13: Their comeback in Houston came up short when Wilson threw his third pick of the day with 9 seconds remaining.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: Though they suffered a setback this week, the Broncos proved over their five-game winning streak that they can play with anyone. All five of those wins, plus Sunday’s loss to the Texans, came against teams that are .500 or above. Only one remaining opponent, the Lions, fits that bill.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: Denver followed the same blueprint when it tallied those five straight victories: an aggressive defense that forces turnovers and an efficient offense that rarely turns it over. When that breaks down, though, are the Broncos good enough to still win? They weren’t this week when the Texans flipped the script and won the turnover battle 3-0. Currently 3-5 in the conference, the Broncos won’t win many tiebreakers in the competitive AFC.
Buffalo Bills
What they did in Week 13: Bye
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: The Bills have regained their spark on offense after firing Ken Dorsey. When they’re clicking like that, or like they were earlier this season when they averaged 41 points during a three-game winning streak, they can be hard to beat. And if they can string together a few wins in a row, then watch out.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: Well, to start a winning streak, the Bills have to actually, y’know, win consecutive games, which they haven’t done since Weeks 2-4. Three of their five remaining opponents are all but assured of a playoff berth (Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins). Unless they win out, it could be too little too late for Buffalo.
NFC No. 1 seed contenders
While the Lions and Cowboys are still alive for the top seed, this is essentially a battle between the Eagles (46%) and 49ers (43%).
Philadelphia Eagles
What they did in Week 13: They got rolled up by the 49ers, who outscored the Eagles 42-13 after the first quarter. It was Philly’s first home loss of the year and first loss by multiple touchdowns since 2021.
Why they will clinch the No. 1 seed: The showdown with the Niners got away from the Eagles this week, which is more understandable when you remember that Philadelphia played three games in 13 days and San Francisco had 10 days to prepare. That one outcome doesn’t define who this team is, led by MVP candidate Jalen Hurts. Through this gauntlet part of the schedule, the Eagles still beat the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. Another win over the Cowboys next week could all but sew up the No. 1 seed for Philly, which finishes the season with two matchups against the Giants and another against the Cardinals.
Why they won’t clinch the No. 1 seed: First, the Eagles need to beat the Cowboys, who have been a monster in Dallas this season. That’s no easy task, especially when the only member of the Eagles who seemingly made any defensive play this weekend was their security chief. If Philly loses next Sunday, then it would need the 49ers to lose again this season to hold on to the top seed. I’m not about to bet that will happen.
San Francisco 49ers
What they did in Week 13: After a slow start, they got their revenge over the Eagles for last season’s NFC Championship. In particular, Deebo Samuel (138 total yards, 3 TDs) and Christian McCaffrey (133 total yards, 1 TD) went off.
Why they will clinch the No. 1 seed: Since their bye, the Niners have broken out of their three-game slide and picked up where they left off before that: by destroying their opponents. The 49ers have won nine games so far, all but one of the double-digit variety (a seven-point W over the Rams). It’s hard to imagine that the San Francisco team we saw in Philadelphia will lose another game the rest of the season.
Why they won’t clinch the No. 1 seed: I remember right before the Niners went on their skid when I wrote that I’d be surprised if they lost before November. Then they did, three times in a row! Which is to say that the NFL is unpredictable and the teams don’t look the same every week. The 49ers have already proven to be beatable this year. Just because they weren’t — in a clash they had waited all year for — this week doesn’t mean much next week against the Seahawks or in a few weeks against the Ravens.
NFC wild card contenders
At this point, it’s a given that the Eagles and Cowboys will both make it back to the playoffs, with one as the NFC East winner and the other as the No. 5 seed. I also refuse to believe that the NFC South will get more than one team into the postseason. Either the Falcons, Saints, or Bucs will slapstick their way to a division title, but I don’t want to entertain the possibility of a runner-up also sneaking in.
So in this section, I will also focus on the four non-NFC South teams that are in play for the final two wild card spots: the Packers (70%), Rams (50%), Vikings (42%), and Seahawks (23%).
Minnesota Vikings
What they did in Week 13: Bye
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: After a difficult start to the season, the Vikings won five straight games before dropping two more close contests. The defense has been the team’s strength since, and if the offense can cut down on turnovers and get Justin Jefferson back, then it can flip those marginal losses into wins. They are also 6-3 in the NFC, which could be an important tiebreaker.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: No one knows who the Vikings’ starting quarterback will be or how long of a leash he’ll have. Their final three-week stretch is also one of the most daunting in the league: vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions.
Green Bay Packers
What they did in Week 13: They pushed the Chiefs around (sometimes literally) on Sunday night for the Packers’ third straight win. Jordan Love continued his tear with another three-touchdown outing after struggling through October.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: Matt LaFleur is now 16-0 in December as Green Bay’s head coach, and if he can stay undefeated this month, then I think the Packers would safely be in. And if you look at their schedule, it’s very possible, with upcoming dates against the Giants, Bucs, Panthers, and Vikings, plus the Bears in the first week of January. With the way Love has been playing, that’s a cakewalk of a schedule.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: Will the offensive injuries start to catch up to the Pack? Aaron Jones has missed the last couple of weeks, and now Christian Watson’s nagging hamstring injury is back. The Green Bay offense was already low on star power in the first place, so if Watson in particular is sidelined again, Love’s hot streak could end.
Los Angeles Rams
What they did in Week 13: They topped the Browns in LA, the Rams’ third consecutive win. Matthew Stafford did not throw an interception for the first time since October, and Puka Nacua shook off an injury for a 105-receiving yard day.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: Sean McVay teams don’t quit, and this one has figured out how to tough out games. The Rams are mostly healthy again, and with a good mix of up-and-coming youngsters and experienced vets, they can pick up a few more NFC wins against the likes of the Commanders, Saints, and Giants.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: The Rams haven’t been able to beat any elite teams this year, and they still face two more: the Ravens and 49ers. They also couldn’t pull away from the Browns, who were starting their fourth QB this season, until late. In short, the Rams aren’t exactly dominant.
Seattle Seahawks
What they did in Week 13: They came up short against the Cowboys on Thursday night despite leading for most of the second half. It was the Seahawks’ third loss in as many weeks.
Why they will clinch a wild card spot: The offense came alive again in Dallas. If that’s the version that shows up for the rest of the season, the Seahawks can hang with anyone. And their last three games should be all wins: Titans, Steelers, and Cardinals.
Why they won’t clinch a wild card spot: Given how wildly uneven the Seahawks have been, we can’t count on them sweeping their final three foes. And before that, Seattle’s next two opponents are the 49ers and Eagles. Yikes.