NFL Week 13 picks for the streakers
As in, the teams on the longest winning and losing streaks. What did you think I meant?
December might be my favorite month of the NFL regular season because it means we enter each week with a number of potential playoff scenarios. This Sunday, the Vikings and Eagles could become the first teams to clinch a postseason berth, while the Texans and Bears could be eliminated. Sure, it’s only a matter of time before all of that happens anyway, but it still raises the stakes a little more.
On Thursday night, the Bills inched a step closer to their fourth consecutive playoff bid with a fairly uneventful 24-10 win over the Patriots. Buffalo has now won three straight after losing two in a row at the start of November.
As of right now, the Bills are one of six teams on a 3+ game winning streak. On the flip side, there are four other teams stuck in a 3+ game slump. Whose good luck or bad luck will come to an end in Week 13?
Before we get to that, let’s first check out the latest odds, as of Thursday evening, from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Jets at Vikings (-3)
Commanders at Giants (+2.5)
Titans at Eagles (-4.5)
Broncos at Ravens (-8.5)
Browns at Texans (+7)
Jaguars at Lions (+1)
Steelers at Falcons (-1)
Packers at Bears (+3.5)
Dolphins at 49ers (-4)
Seahawks at Rams (+7)
Chiefs at Bengals (+1.5)
Chargers at Raiders (-1)
Colts at Cowboys (-10.5)
Saints at Buccaneers (-4)
Also, be sure to read up on Christian’s picks for the entire Week 13 slate.
Last week, I asked my parents to pick every game (they finished a very respectable 10-6), but this week, I’m back to only writing about select matchups. As hinted above, I’m going to focus on the hottest and coldest teams in the NFL.
Who will (or won’t) end their losing streak
The icky reunion: Browns over Texans
Deshaun Watson will play in the regular season for the first time in 700 days, and he’ll do so in a familiar venue. In his debut with the Browns, Watson will square off against his former team, the Texans.
The Houston crowd, which will include some of the more than two dozen women who accused him of sexual misconduct, will probably not greet Watson kindly, and for good reason. Perhaps the Texans will be motivated to take down their one-time quarterback, who could be rusty after his absence from the field. The Texans have been competitive about half the time during their current six-game losing skid, but considering how non-competitive they’ve looked in recent weeks, I can’t pick them to win, even if it’d be the more palatable outcome on Sunday.
The birthday blues: Ravens over Broncos
The Ravens are 7-4, and all four of their losses have followed the same script: They’ve led by double digits and then, through a series of self-inflicted mistakes, have collapsed.
If that’s the key to beating the Ravens, then the Broncos would have to stage a double-digit comeback to break their three-game losing streak. You expect me to believe that this Denver offense, which is bad but not quite historically bad, can do that? The players, at least half of them, can’t even bother to show up to their quarterback’s birthday party!
So yeah, even with Lamar Jackson not at 100 percent, I have to side with Baltimore in this one.
Love will have to wait: Packers over Bears
The Bears have lost five in a row and could be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss on Sunday, combined with a Seahawks win. Their players are also dropping like flies, though Justin Fields could be back in the lineup this week.
The Packers, losers of seven of their last eight, are only a game up on the Bears in the division and have injuries of their own, including at quarterback. But Aaron Rodgers is supposed to play, and even a declining Aaron Rodgers with a rib injury will probably continue to own Chicago. Then next week, or whenever they’re officially out of the playoff race, maybe the Pack can finally see what they have in Jordan Love.
The hangover worsens: Seahawks over Rams
The devil is collecting on whatever deal the Rams made with him to win the Super Bowl last year:
They’re mired in a five-game slide and with Aaron Donald now joining Matthew Stafford on the injury list, there’s little hope for a reprieve from their misery this week. That’s good news for any fans of schadenfreude and/or the Seahawks, who can end their mini-slump with a win. After two close losses in a row, I think Geno Smith and Co. can bounce back in LA, presumably in front of a bunch of Seattle fans.
Who will (or won’t) continue their winning streak
Master of the Commanders: Giants over Commanders
The Giants have fallen back to Earth a bit after their surprising 6-1 start to the season. Their only win in their last four contests was against the NFL’s worst team, the Texans. On the other end of the spectrum, the Commanders have rebounded from their Carson Wentz-induced 1-4 record at the beginning of the season. Their only loss since was when they came up three points short to the soon-to-be-playoff-bound Vikings.
Now both the Giants and Commanders are above .500 and in the postseason hunt, along with the rest of the NFC East. NY has dealt with a slew of injuries and will welcome back a few players this weekend, giving the offense a much-needed boost against Washington’s resurgent defense.
Watch for Daniel Jones, who has a 4-1 career record against the Commanders, to run a little more this week. I can’t imagine this will be a particularly pleasant game to watch, but in a pivotal matchup, I think the Jones and the Giants can do just enough to put a stop to Washington’s win streak.
Obi-Wan vs. Darth Vader: 49ers over Dolphins
The Dolphins are tied with the Chiefs for the longest active winning streak in the league (five games). Not only that, but Miami has only lost one game in which Tua Tagovailoa has started: the infamous Thursday night matchup against the Bengals, which he exited partway through due to a head injury.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have reeled off four straight wins, led by a defense that hasn’t given up more than 16 points in any of those victories. The Dolphins have scored 30+ points in four consecutive games — but against opponents that all rank in the bottom third of the league in points allowed. The 49ers, on the other hand, are No. 1 in scoring defense.
San Francisco’s offense hasn’t been nearly as consistent as its defense, and several playmakers are either banged up (Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel) or on IR (Elijah Mitchell). But Kyle Shanahan is usually at his best when he’s scheming against coaches he knows well, like Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur. I expect that to continue when he faces off with his former assistant coach, Mike McDaniel.
OK, my Star Wars knowledge is somewhat limited, but I’ll go with this analogy (even if McDaniel is way too goofy to be the former Anakin Skywalker). If I recall correctly, while Darth Vader bested Obi-Wan (for good), Obi-Wan got at least one head-to-head win (and I guess a draw?) before that. So McDaniel can take down his former teacher one day, just maybe not this Sunday.
The Decemberists: Chiefs over Bengals
Last week, the Bengals held off the Titans in a close win and will next face the Chiefs. If that sounds familiar, there’s a reason: That’s how last season’s postseason played out. The Bengals ended up beating the Chiefs, just as they did earlier in January during the regular season.
I’m not optimistic the same result will happen this time around, even with the expected return of Ja’Marr Chase. We know Cincinnati is a tough matchup for Kansas City, and the Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of three straight and seven of their last nine. The Chiefs have also “struggled” against last year’s AFC playoff teams — they lost to the Bills in a rematch, they needed overtime to escape the Malik Willis-led Titans, and they squeaked it out against the then-1-4 Raiders by one point.
The Chiefs have had this game circled on their calendar for almost a year, however. With revenge on their minds, I think they can edge the Bengals in Cincinnati. Besides, why bet against Patrick Mahomes in December?