NFL Week 12 picks from the family
It's Thanksgiving week, the perfect time to ask my parents for their thoughts on all 16 NFL games.
Happy early Thanksgiving, our most footballish holiday of the year.
It’s been a few years since I left town for Thanksgiving. That year, I visited my mom and stepdad, Mike, and it was just the three of us for Thanksgiving. I had a nice holiday, eating good food and watching football with two of my favorite people. Overall, our day was low-key, which I appreciated because I had to work during all three NFL games. As an editor, I didn’t write all that often, but I pitched in that year with an article that poked fun at Matt Ryan.
The good news for Matt Ryan is that he won’t be playing on Thanksgiving Day this year. The bad news for us is that Ryan and the Colts are in primetime again, and the last time that happened, I thought Al Michaels was going to quit on air.
The Colts and Steelers will close out Week 12 on Monday night, but we have a lot more action than that beforehand. There are no byes this week, which means all 32 teams will be out there on the football field, as crappy as that turf may be.
And, perhaps like at your Thanksgiving dinner, we have several big spreads this weekend. Here are the latest odds from DraftKings, as of Wednesday afternoon, with the favored team in bold:
Bills at Lions (+9)
Giants at Cowboys (-10)
Patriots at Vikings (-2.5)
Buccaneers at Browns (+3.5)
Bengals at Titans (+2)
Texans at Dolphins (-13.5)
Bears at Jets (-6)
Falcons at Commanders (-4.5)
Broncos at Panthers (+1.5)
Ravens at Jaguars (+3.5)
Chargers at Cardinals (+3)
Raiders at Seahawks (-3.5)
Rams at Chiefs (-15.5)
Saints at 49ers (-9.5)
Packers at Eagles (-6.5)
Steelers at Colts (-2.5)
Still, this is a tricky slate for anyone betting on games due to all the quarterback uncertainty around the league. Baker Mayfield, Davis Mills, and Zach Wilson were benched; Justin Fields might not play and Matthew Stafford (and maybe John Wolford) won’t.
As usual, Christian has you covered with straight-up picks for every game. We’re going to do something a little differently here, though. Since I won’t be able to spend Thanksgiving with my parents, I thought I’d spend it with them spiritually — by recruiting them to help with my picks this week.
My parents’ Week 12 picks
If you remember earlier this season, my mom has already been my guest picker once before. This time, she and my stepdad talked the games over and decided together which team to pick in each matchup.
Their predictions are in bold:
Bills at Lions
Giants at Cowboys
Patriots at Vikings
Buccaneers at Browns
Bengals at Titans
Texans at Dolphins
Bears at Jets
Falcons at Commanders
Broncos at Panthers
Ravens at Jaguars
Chargers at Cardinals
Raiders at Seahawks
Rams at Chiefs
Saints at 49ers
Packers at Eagles
Steelers at Colts
As you can see, they mostly went with the favorites, but they sprinkled in a few upsets too. Let’s check out what my parents had to say.
Bills over Lions
My stepdad is a Lions fan, but probably because he’s a Lions fan, he did not think they could pull off the upset and win for the fourth straight week.
“The Bills are just the better team,” he explained. “I’ll be cheering for the Lions, but over the years, my expectations have grown a little shallow. In fact, winning three in a row? We never would have imagined that after the first few games of the season. I hope they win on Thursday, but I don’t expect them to.”
Meanwhile, my mom said she’d be pleasantly surprised if the Lions could get their fourth win in a row, but, “I am picking the Bills for my buddy Freddy.”
Cowboys over Giants
According to my mom, “Both teams are 7-3, but I’m giving the nod to the Cowboys because of injuries for the Giants. Plus my friend Owen and I love Zeke Elliott.”
Mike has the Dallas defense in his fantasy football league, so he knows the danger any opponent faces when it squares off against that unit. He’s confident that, as they did earlier this season, the Cowboys will prevail over the Giants, led by a defense that continues to step it up.
Vikings over Patriots
For about a decade, my parents were snowbirds in Florida, where they encountered a lot of New Englanders. As such, they have grown quite weary of the Patriots and refuse to root for them.
Besides, my mom thinks that Minnesota will rise to the challenge: “With a 40-3 loss at home last week against Dallas, I predict the Vikings will be hungry for a win.”
Browns over Buccaneers
My mom is a well wisher for any Ohio team, so she’s taking the Browns in a slight upset. And perhaps she’s hoping that Tom Brady has an absolutely miserable football weekend.
Bengals over Titans
Both my mom and Mike are sending good vibes to Joe Burrow this weekend. With Ja’Marr Chase’s potential return, my mom believes Burrow can hold off Mike Vrabel’s tough Titans team, as he did last year in the playoffs. Mike has Burrow on his fantasy team, a move that has paid off in recent weeks. Getting his favorite target back should only help Burrow’s numbers.
Dolphins over Texans
My mom would like to see the Texans finally get another win, but she knows that, even with a change at quarterback, “it would take a miracle for them to beat the Dolphins.”
Bears over Jets
The Jets’ ferocious defense poses a big challenge for a banged-up Justin Fields. But the Jets have offensive issues of their own, and Robert Saleh made the decision to start Mike White over Zach Wilson, much to the latter’s chagrin:
Still, my mom thinks that if the Fields is healthy enough to play, the Bears can take down the Jets.
Falcons over Commanders
The Commanders have been on a roll with Taylor Heinicke, but the Falcons are unpredictable and my mom is backing them on the road … unless Chase Young makes his season debut.
Broncos over Panthers
My parents picked the Broncos before the Panthers announced their decision to start Sam Darnold:
When I asked if they wanted to change their mind after the QB switch, they said they did not. Or, as Mike put it, “To be honest, I haven’t thought about this game at all.” Totally understandable!
Ravens over Jaguars
With the way Baltimore’s defense has played lately, my folks are not optimistic that Trevor Lawrence and the Jags can get a win against the Ravens.
Chargers over Cardinals
Mike, who also has James Conner on his fantasy team, is hoping the running back can rack up the yards against the Chargers’ subpar rush defense. But the Cardinals are a mess, on and off the field, so he’s giving the edge to the Chargers.
Seahawks over Raiders
My mom’s explanation for this one was simple but logical: “The Seahawks are coming off a bye week and the game is in Seattle, so I am selecting them to beat the Raiders.”
Chiefs over Rams
One team has lost four in a row and could be starting a third-stringer at QB. The other team has Patrick Mahomes and hasn’t lost in November since 2019. This wasn’t a difficult decision.
49ers over Saints
Both my mom and stepdad had high praise for Chris Olave, and think he can continue his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign against the 49ers. “Olave has become quite the go-to guy in New Orleans,” Mike said. “He doesn’t score a touchdown every game, but he’s always making his presence felt.”
Nevertheless, the 49ers are the more complete team.
Eagles over Packers
Not only do my parents not want Aaron Rodgers to win, they don’t predict he will. The Eagles have stumbled a bit lately, but they’re still much better off than the Packers right now.
Colts over Steelers
This week’s Monday Night Football showdown probably won’t be a barnburner, but it was a hard game to pick. Ultimately, my mom sided with the home team: “Because the game is in Indianapolis, I think the Colts will have the edge over the struggling Steelers.”
Thanks again to my mom and stepdad for weighing in on all 16 games this week. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!