Put up or shut up Week 11 NFL picks
Who can (potentially) salvage their season this weekend?
In this year’s premiere of Hard Knocks In Season, narrator Liev Schreiber said something about the Cardinals that applies to a few other teams at the moment: “If they want to salvage their season, it has to start this week.” And somehow, even a couple weeks later, it still describes the Cardinals too.
We are at least a week away (but probably more) from any playoff-clinching, or playoff-eliminating, scenarios. But we can safely assume that teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, and Vikings will be playing past Week 18, while the Texans, Raiders, and Lions might as well study up on draft prospects. However, there are a few others, in that 4- to 5-win range, who are in limbo more than anyone else. A win or loss in Week 11 won’t make or break their season, but it could be their turning point, good or bad.
The Packers might’ve just reached theirs after a home loss to the Titans. Fresh off a comeback OT win over the Cowboys, Green Bay had momentum heading into its Thursday night showdown with Tennessee, then immediately squandered it. At 4-7, the Packers’ season isn’t over, but they would need a lot to go right to make it back to the postseason. In fact, FiveThirtyEight puts their chances at just 5 percent right now. If they had beaten the Titans, then the Pack’s playoff chances would’ve jumped to 20 percent.
So which other teams similarly have a “put up or shut up” game this weekend? First, let’s take a look at the latest odds from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Browns at Bills (-7.5)
Eagles at Colts (+6.5)
Lions at Giants (-3)
Jets at Patriots (-3.5)
Panthers at Ravens (-13)
Bears at Falcons (-3)
Commanders at Texans (+3)
Rams at Saints (-2.5)
Raiders at Broncos (-3)
Cowboys at Vikings (+1.5)
Bengals at Steelers (+3.5)
Chiefs at Chargers (+5)
49ers at Cardinals (+8)
Second, check out Christian’s Week 11 picks 11 at FTW (spoiler alert: he’s already 1-0).
Third, keep reading for my thoughts on who will and who won’t salvage their season … potentially, anyway.
A quick note before we get started: I’m only focusing on teams with 4-5 wins and who currently have a halfway decent chance to be in the playoff field. So sorry, Falcons and Colts, I’m not including you because there’s no reason to waste anyone’s time.
I won’t be tricked again: Patriots over Jets
It’s been just a few weeks since the Patriots and Jets last met. I had high hopes that the Jets, led by their relentless defense, would break the curse the Patriots held over them. Instead, New England, led by its own relentless defense, won its 13th straight game in the rivalry.
The Patriots harassed Zach Wilson all afternoon, picking him off three times and leaving the usually affable quarterback so frustrated with himself that he gave reporters terse, Belichickian answers.
And maybe gave the Pats a little bulletin board material in the process:
Zaaaach.
It’s not the Jets who are more in need of a win this weekend, though. It’s the Patriots, who are 5-4 and one game back of NY in the AFC East standings. Plus, New England’s upcoming schedule — the Vikings and Bills are up next — is no cakewalk, so a victory this week would give the Patriots a bit more wiggle room if they stumble against stiffer competition.
Bill Belichick will try to force Wilson to beat them, and the second-year QB is not consistent enough for me to trust him to do that … unless the Jets let Wilson run more, like Justin Fields did against New England’s defense, its worst game in an otherwise impressive stretch in the past month and change.
But even then, I simply can’t pick the Jets against the Patriots again. I took a chance once already, and it backfired. If I’m wrong this time, however, I won’t complain.
A repeat of last year: Bengals over Steelers
Last year, the Bengals were 5-4 heading into their bye week. They notched a key win in Week 11, the beginning of a strong finish to their season.
This year, the Bengals are 5-4 and coming out of their bye, they face a familiar foe in Week 11: their most hated rival. The Steelers topped the Bengals in overtime in Week 1, a game with such a preposterous final 12 minutes that it could never be replicated.
And I don’t think the outcome will be either. Even without Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati’s offense has enough playmakers to keep Pittsburgh at bay. Joe Burrow has been playing like his 2021 self again — chalk his slow start up to the emergency appendectomy he had in July, which caused him to lose weight and sit out the preseason.
The Steelers, who welcomed T.J. Watt back last week, aren’t to be taken lightly, and the Bengals won’t. But on Sunday, the Bengals should add another 2021 throwback to their list: earning a win over the Steelers, which they did twice last season.
It’ll be an important victory, too, especially if Cincy can use it as a springboard. Looking at the rest of the Bengals’ schedule — Titans, Chiefs, a (presumably) Deshaun Watson-led Browns, Bucs, Bills, and Ravens — it only gets tougher from here on out.
A potential trap game buuuuut: Commanders over Texans
I think the Texans will win another game this year, but don’t expect me to actually predict it to happen in any given week. Still, they have a decent shot at getting win No. 2 this Sunday.
The Commanders are riding high after handing the Eagles their first loss of the season, and could be due for a letdown in Houston. The Texans, for all their many flaws, have a way of hanging in games, even though they can’t finish them successfully.
Washington can use the same blueprint in Texas as it did in Pennsylvania: a steady dose of the run game, dominating time of possession, and leaning on a defense that can force the other team to make mistakes.
Philly’s main flaw is its rush defense, which it has since tried to improve with the signings of veterans Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. Houston’s defense is even worse against the run.
That, plus the potential return of Chase Young, is why I think the Commanders can notch their sixth win of the year and, more importantly, stay in the crowded NFC East race.
What could’ve been: Chiefs over Chargers
The Chargers had such a great offseason that there was talk they could challenge the Chiefs for the AFC West throne. Since then, though, both teams are back on their usual track: LA is snakebit with injuries, and KC is well on its way to a seventh straight divisional championship.
If the Chargers have any hope of putting an end to that streak, it has to start with a win on Sunday night. That’s a tall task, but the Chargers never roll over against the Chiefs. Four of their last five matchups have been decided by one score, including two in OT and a three-point Kansas City win earlier this season.
Justin Herbert could also have a couple weapons back, which he didn’t have last weekend when the Chargers almost upset the 49ers. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes will be down one target as JuJu Smith-Schuster recovers from a nasty hit he sustained in Week 10.
However, I don’t often bet against Mahomes, particularly in a primetime divisional clash. Before the season, this could’ve been the deciding game of the AFC West. Now, because of a banged-up Chargers roster, it just looks like one that will put the Chiefs one step closer to another title.
The Hard Knocks bump: Cardinals over 49ers
I’m taking a swing here, thanks to a phenomenon that might not exist except in my own head: the Hard Knocks bump.
Last year, the Colts were the first team to be at the center of Hard Knocks In Season. Entering November, they were just 4-5 and needed a big second-half push to make it to the postseason. Then they won six of their next seven contests and seemed well on their way to doing just that; at the time, I called it the Hard Knocks effect.
Unfortunately, they faltered in the last two weeks of the season, so the bump only lasted so long.
It would not surprise me if the Cardinals, currently 4-6, followed a similar trajectory. They already have one victory since the show premiered, and they know if they have any realistic hope at punching their playoff ticket, they have to keep finding ways to win:
That’ll be difficult with a Mexico City date against the surging 49ers, perhaps without Kyler Murray. But 1) the Cardinals played well with Colt McCoy at quarterback last week and 2) San Francisco has lost three of its last four against Arizona, including one matchup last year against McCoy.
Either way, the rivalry game should make for a compelling episode of Hard Knocks. As a TV fan, though, I think the better storyline is if the Cardinals win. I wouldn’t consider it a huge upset, even though Arizona is an 8-point underdogs. That’s just life in the NFC West.
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