NFL Week 11: The playoff picture is already a mess
We look at which games impacted (or will impact) the playoff races most. Plus, Kirk Cousins had a bad-good day and Jonathan Taylor is a fantasy god (or devil, if you had to play against him).
Normally at this time of year, we’re starting to see the NFL playoff picture take shape. This NFL season is anything but normal, however. There’s no clear No. 1 team in either conference or an MVP frontrunner. Anyone can beat or lose to anyone … or at least in the Lions’ case, give their opponents a scare.
And rather than this season stabilizing as it wears on, it’s been getting more unpredictable lately:
As further evidence, let’s compare the playoff standings before Week 11 and what they look like now, with one more game left to be played on Monday night.
Playoff standings entering Week 11:
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans, 8-2
2. Buffalo Bills, 6-3
3. Baltimore Ravens, 6-3
4. Kansas City Chiefs, 6-4
5. Pittsburgh Steelers, 5-3-1
6. New England Patriots, 6-4
7. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-4
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers, 8-2
2. Arizona Cardinals, 8-2
3. Dallas Cowboys, 7-2
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-3
5. Los Angeles Rams, 7-3
6. New Orleans Saints, 5-4
7. Carolina Panthers, 5-5
Playoff standings after Sunday:
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans, 8-3
2. Baltimore Ravens, 7-3
3. New England Patriots, 7-4
4. Kansas City Chiefs, 7-4
5. Cincinnati Bengals, 6-4
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 6-4
7. Buffalo Bills, 6-4
NFC
1. Arizona Cardinals, 9-2
2. Green Bay Packers, 8-3
3. Dallas Cowboys, 7-3
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-3
5. Los Angeles Rams, 7-3
6. Minnesota Vikings, 5-5
7. New Orleans Saints, 5-5
There were quite a few outcomes this week that didn’t just muddle the current seedings but could play a pivotal role in what the final standings look like. Sometimes, one result from earlier in the season comes back to either benefit or bite a team on the playoff bubble. On that note, these are the four games on Sunday I think were most critical to the postseason race.
The Chiefs keep their momentum going while slowing down the Cowboys
I didn’t believe the Chiefs’ recent string of wins was evidence that they had turned their season around. They were still playing sloppy football in narrow victories over the Giants and Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, and even a blowout over the Raiders seemed more like a bad Vegas defensive game plan than KC flipping the switch.
The Chiefs’ win over the Cowboys Sunday felt like the real deal, though. It wasn’t a complete effort — their turnover woes continued with a Patrick Mahomes interception and fumble, and the offense managed just 19 points. But they also stymied the league’s top-scoring offense, holding the Cowboys to three field goals and keeping them out of the end zone for the first time all season. Granted, Dak Prescott was without left tackle Tyron Smith and No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper, and then CeeDee Lamb was in concussion protocol for the second half. That shouldn’t discount how much the Kansas City defense was able to disrupt things, though. Prescott was sacked five times, threw two interceptions, and fumbled twice (he lost one).
The Chiefs needed the W to stay atop the AFC West, where they hold a slight edge over a Chargers team that has already beaten them once. But they survived the toughest part of their schedule and can potentially use that momentum to build up their lead with three straight games against division rivals up next.
The good news for the Cowboys is they still have a 2.5-game buffer in their division and a perfect record so far against NFC East foes — and four more matchups left to either solidify or lose that lead. The bad news is that the Eagles and Washington Football Team not only both won on Sunday, but they have also started to find their rhythm. If Dallas can’t bounce back quickly from this disappointing loss, then it might soon have some competition for the division title.
The Ravens won a very 2021 Ravens game … without Lamar Jackson
Tyler Huntley found out on Sunday morning that he would start for the first time in his NFL career because Lamar Jackson was out with a non-Covid illness. (With all due respect, why are you always sick, Lamar?!)
And somehow, it still played out like so many other Ravens games this year. Huntley didn’t look great, though he wasn’t bad either. He completed 26 of 36 passes for 219 yards and ran for another 40 yards, but threw an interception and took six sacks. Thanks to a strong showing from the Baltimore defense and the opponent being the Bears, Huntley was able to keep the Ravens in the game.
As with four previous wins this season, the Ravens rallied from a late deficit to rip the hearts out of the other fanbase. The biggest play came on third-and-12 with 33 seconds remaining, when Huntley channeled Jackson and found Sammy Watkins in the clutch:
That set up the game-winning touchdown, clinching Baltimore’s fifth fourth-quarter comeback of 2021. The Ravens needed this win for many reasons. They were able to maintain their small cushion atop the tightly contested AFC North. They are 0-1 against their division so far, and the team that beat them is breathing down their neck after the Bengals won on Sunday. The rest of their schedule isn’t easy — out of their seven remaining games, five are against AFC North competition and the other two are against likely playoff teams (Packers and Rams).
But once again they showed more resolve than anyone else has in the league this year. Gutting out close wins can give teams confidence, no matter what challenge they face next. It can also be the difference between winning a division and getting left out of the postseason altogether, especially in this year’s AFC North.
The Vikings jump up into the playoff picture — and put pressure on the Packers
The Packers aren’t in serious danger of losing the NFC North yet, even after dropping their first division game. However, their 34-31 loss to the Vikings could end up costing them the top seed in the NFC — and the bye week and homefield advantage that comes with it.
Right now, the Packers are still 2.5 games up on the Vikings, but they fell to the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Despite Green Bay holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona, the Packers have a slightly more difficult schedule left than the Cardinals do. The Packers have four more matchups against teams that are currently .500 or better. The Cardinals have three, while their other opponents are the three worst teams in the NFC.
Plus, the Cards have already proven they can win without their best playmakers. They’re 2-1 so far without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup. The Packers can’t say the same — they’re 0-2 when either Aaron, Rodgers or Jones, doesn’t play. Rodgers is now dealing with a toe injury, and Jones could be out another week.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have rebounded from their 1-3 start to the season to get to 5-5. Now they control their own destiny in the wild card hunt and can even get back in the NFC North race if Green Bay stumbles.
In their last two outings, they closed out a one-score game against a quality opponent — a result that had evaded them through much of the season. Minnesota had been better than its record suggested and has seemed to find a winning formula, at least on offense. The Vikes have a balanced offensive attack, don’t turn the ball over much, and Kirk Cousins’ chemistry with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson is better than ever:
The defense needs to figure out how to maintain double-digit leads, but at least it’s getting a couple playmakers healthy again at the right time.
The Colts’ domination of the Bills shakes up the AFC
Maybe it’s a Hard Knocks bump, but for the first time all season, the Colts have a winning record. And they got there with their finest win of the season: a 25-point win (their second-largest margin of victory) in Buffalo.
While the Colts are currently just outside of the playoff picture, they’re hotter than anyone else in the AFC’s wild card gridlock of five- and six-win teams. They’ve done it with NFL leading rusher Jonathan Taylor, the league’s best turnover margin, a resurgent defense, and Carson Wentz not brain-farting games like he did against the Titans last month.
Speaking of the Titans, their shocking (well as much as any outcome is shocking this season) loss to the Texans opened the door a little for the Colts in the AFC South. However, Tennessee swept the season series against Indianapolis and has a more manageable schedule the rest of the way. The Colts’ best bet as a playoff contender is still as a wild card team, unless the Titans’ horrible injury luck catches up to them.
The Bills were supposed to have the top defense in the league, but after allowing 41 points including five touchdowns to one player, it’s hard to know what to make of them:
Like the season itself, the Bills have been inscrutable, capable of losing a 9-6 game to one laughingstock and then turning around and beating the brakes off another laughingstock the next week. Their inconsistencies have led them to get jumped by the streaking Patriots, who are in sole possession of first place in the AFC East for the first time in the post-Tom Brady era. The Bills and Patriots still have to play each other twice in December, which could determine who takes the division crown. But conference losses like this could also come back to haunt Buffalo when the standings, either in the AFC East or in the AFC Wild Card, are being settled.
And based on how this season is going, that will happen in Week 18 and not a second before. — SH
Christian’s Shit List
All the things I hated from Week 11.
1. A.J. Brown, unable to do this on his own
We’re getting a glimpse into the desolate future the Titans saw after Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith left in free agency but before they traded for Julio Jones. Brown, saddled with double teams thanks to Tennessee’s lack of a dynamic running game or viable WR2, has been butt the past two weeks. Without Jones or Derrick Henry in the lineup, he’s had 13 targets but only six catches for 64 yards — a 4.9 yard per target that ranks 155th of 159 eligible players this season.
Brown’s inability to escape double teams has been a problem, as he’s gone from one of the league’s most explosive players to a slightly above-average wideout. His catch rate, yards per catch, and yards per target are all career lows. A lacking supporting cast has left him to languish as the focal point of opposing defenses, but he had struggles even before Henry and Jones departed for the injured list. Brown had just 10 catches for 130 yards over his first four games of 2021.
The Titans need him more than ever, but the third-year wideout is incapable of rising to that challenge. That’s a problem for Tennessee, who will have to carry on without its stud tailback through the remainder of the regular season. The Colts are suddenly surging, and if the Titans want to keep their sights locked on another AFC South title, they’ll need their top wideout to start looking like one.
2. Kirk Cousins, who had a great day despite kinda having an awful day
Cousins beat the Packers at home behind a 340-yard, three-touchdown performance. He delivered two different lead-taking drives in the final five minutes. It was one of the finest days of his Vikings career.
It was also extremely lucky. Cousins finished his day without a turnover, but could have reasonably thrown five interceptions that were either dropped, erased by penalties, or snuffed out when his wideouts had to swap hats and suddenly play defensive back.
Like this overthrow that went right through Eric Stokes’ hands before an eventual Vikings touchdown.
Or this play that set up a game-winning field goal when Rasul Douglas gave Cousins too much credit for being able to put an out-route on the numbers:
Cousins got the win and put up big numbers in the process. The way he did so does not mean he’s capable of fixing the Vikings. Once again, Minnesota is destined to hover around .500 and maybe make the postseason, though no one will take it seriously as a contender. This is the blessing of the Mike Zimmer/Kirk Cousins relationship. This is the curse of the Mike Zimmer/Kirk Cousins relationship.
3. Dan Campbell, turtling up at the worst possible time
Coming into Week 11, no team had gone for it more than Campbell’s Lions at 2.6 times per game. Only the Chargers had converted more fourth downs. This is not a team that settled for insurance when staring down an opponent’s ace.
But on Sunday, that’s exactly what Campbell did. Detroit faced fourth-and-1 at the Cleveland 25 while trailing 13-7 with 9:07 to play in a showdown with the underperforming Browns. His running game had averaged 7.8 yards per carry at that point, and any drive that followed would rely heavily on backup quarterback Tim Boyle, an enigma of a player who got an NFL job despite this collegiate statline:
He was that bad at UConn and Eastern Kentucky! He’s now spent three years in the NFL. HE IS ELIGIBLE FOR AN NFL PENSION DESPITE A 12:26 TD:INT RATIO AT TWO VERY BAD COLLEGE PROGRAMS. AND THIS IS WHO DAN CAMPBELL TRUSTED INSTEAD OF GOING FOR IT ON FOURTH DOWN.
Detroit actually kept Cleveland from scoring and got the ball back with 5:16 to play, predictably did nothing with it, and punted it back to Nick Chubb and the Browns, who ran the clock out for the win. The Lions had a reasonable chance to win their first game of the season, and while that almost certainly would have been erased by something heartbreaking like an eight-lateral triple-option touchdown as time expired, it would have been more honorable than staring down glory and running screaming in the opposite direction.
4. Ben Roethlisberger’s launch codes
The man is a North Korean missile silo.
5. The Steelers and Chargers’ forgetful finish
With less than four minutes to go, the Chargers went for it on fourth-and-1 in their own territory. This would probably have gone much better had Los Angeles remembered to block Pittsburgh’s starting inside linebacker:
Not to be outdone, the Steelers saw Justin Herbert trailing by three in a two-minute drill and decided, sure, why not let his top deep threat roam free with the game on the line? What’s the worst that could happen?
This game was very stupid.
6. Jonathan Taylor, who I love very much but had to face in fantasy this week
Taylor is the best Wisconsin running back not named Ron Dayne and very possibly the best former Badger to play in the NFL. However, having to deal with this shit:
was extremely not fun. — CD
Week 11 results, in five words or fewer
49ers 30, Jaguars 10
Colts 41, Bills 15
Vikings 34, Packers 31
Browns 13, Lions 10
Dolphins 24, Jets 17
Washington 27, Panthers 21
Rivera spoils Cam’s homecoming
Texans 22, Titans 13
Tannehill just threw another pick
Ravens 16, Bears 13
Eagles 40, Saints 29
Bengals 32, Raiders 13
Chiefs 19, Cowboys 9
Cardinals 23, Seahawks 13
Mounting frustration in Seattle
Chargers 41, Steelers 37