NFL season predictions we definitely won't regret
Our batting average is low, but we are duty bound to look into the crystal ball.
It’s officially game week. As such, we’re bringing back our favorite early September tradition: season predictions.
OK, the Post Route is barely a year old. Can we really call this a tradition if this is only the second time we’ve done this? Eh, semantics. If it wasn’t a tradition before, it is now.
A little forewarning here: Most of our predictions will not come to pass. If you look back at last year’s post, our batting average, to borrow from another sport’s lexicon, was below the Mendoza line. In fact, it was more on par with the batting average of an NL starting pitcher.
Will that stop us from swinging again? Absolutely not. Will we stop with the baseball metaphors? Thankfully, yes. So please read on.
Which team will be the best surprise?
Christian: Sam Darnold and Matt Rhule will give the Carolinas something to believe in.
I know it sounds bad. I don’t love that I wrote it. But Darnold’s catch coming both into and out of USC is that all the mechanics were there and he just needed the right coach to make the puzzle pieces look like a bear eating honey and not the Lovecraftian horror we’ve seen instead. His head coaches since 2016 have been Clay Helton (perpetually about to get fired at USC), Todd Bowles (a great defensive coordinator whose average season in New York ended 6-10) and Adam Gase (got to coach Peyton Manning once and somehow derived multiple head coach stints from it).
Now he’s got Rhule, whose entire persona is built from putting the pieces together to make them greater than the sum of those parts. Last year he fleshed out Robby Anderson’s route tree to make him and DJ Moore 1,000-yard wideouts despite Teddy Bridgewater’s downfield limitations. This year he’ll have both those guys, rookie wideout Terrace Marshall Jr (nine catches, 181 yards in limited preseason action), and a hopefully healthy Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.
At the center is Darnold, who went 20 of 27 for 186 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions in roughly 2.1 quarters of work this August. Rhule built Charlie Brewer into an All-Big 12 quarterback while turning a one-win team into an 11-win unit in three seasons at Baylor. Before that he helped PJ Walker sort out his efficiency woes while winning 10 games in back-to-back seasons at Temple (this had happened exactly zero times in program history). Rhule only won five games in his NFL debut and his defense needs so, so much work … but I think the ingredients are there for another turnaround, this time led by the face that launched a thousand memes.
Ryan: The Washington Football Team. Though, I don’t really know how big of a surprise that really is. They won the NFC East by default last year, and they should repeat as Division champs this year … but they’ll be a lot better than the “7-9 someone has to win this awful trophy” victors they were last year.
The defense is a top 10 unit. This year they won’t have to carry all the weight now that the team isn’t leaning on a QB rotation of Dwyane Haskins-Kyle Allen-Alex Smith. I’m sure that I too am overbuying on Fitz Magic here--he really isn’t as good as we tend to think is--but it’s a big step up for this team. Plus, with playmakers like Scary Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson, there’s a lot offensive production waiting for just a little competence under center.
Which team will fail to live up to its hype?
Christian: 37 years on this planet have conditioned me to believe this will be the Browns, but I can’t bring myself to bet against that roster — they used the offseason to address their biggest weakness! Kevin Stefanski is a perfect fit for Baker Mayfield! Myles Garrett!
Instead, I can see Tennessee’s escape from its nine-win inertia as a temporary one. There are very real concerns about a defense that ranked 29th in DVOA last fall and then added Bud Dupree (coming off a torn ACL), Denico Autry (31 years old), Janoris Jenkins (33 years old, mostly bad at football), and Caleb Farley (a rookie who’s struggled this summer). Julio Jones is also on the wrong side of 30 and the receiving/tight end depth behind him and A.J Brown is troubling. There’s a lot that can go wrong there, and a brutal schedule will provide several opportunities for band-aid scrapes to become fatal wounds.
Sarah: After several offseasons of buying into the Cowboys’ hype, I refuse to be Charlie Brown and the football anymore. The answer is the Cowboys, because it’s always the Cowboys.
Unless by picking the Cowboys, I will have reverse-jinxed them and they won’t disappoint ... no, don’t let me fall into this trap again!
Ryan: Cleveland, Tennessee and Dallas are all excellent picks. I’m also prepared to be wholly underwhelmed by Seattle. Their offseason went from disgruntled quarterback unhappy with the offense (surprise, Brain Schottenheimer is not good at his job!) to everybody’s happy and their going to throw more. We’ll see.
Which team will go from worst to first in its division?
Christian: The NFC East is ripe for this category since everyone’s a goddamn mess, but last year’s basement-dweller was Philadelphia, a team destined to play 2021 on expert mode thanks to the near $50 million in dead salary cap cash keeping the roster in purgatory. The Jets, Falcons, and Lions are multiple-year teardowns. The Broncos will be much better, but thinking they’ll vault past the Chiefs and Chargers and, sure why not, Raiders just because Teddy Bridgewater is there to throw for six yards on third-and-long is probably a losing bet.
So let’s cop out and go with the 2019 NFC champions. San Francisco fell apart last fall due mostly to awful injury luck. While the NFC West remains the toughest division in the NFL, the Niners have an elite defense and enough breakthrough skill players to win games whether Trey Lance is launching interceptions into double coverage or Jimmy Garoppolo is doing the same, just over a much shorter distance.
Ryan: Has there ever been a season where there wasn’t a team going from worst to first? I realize I could look that up, but then I’m down a rabbit hole for a one liner, and well, that’s just not a wise use of time. If it hasn’t happened before, this could be the first year. The 49ers are the only team among last year’s basement dwellers capable of doing so this year.
Which team will go from division champion to missing the playoffs?
Christian: Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson has Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and then a bunch of stuffed animals dressed in blue and neon green as his receiving corps. Seattle’s defense ranked 16th in DVOA last season and the team’s biggest move to address that this offseason was to extend Jamal Adams, who is one hell of a safety blitzer but arguably a net negative in coverage for the Seahawks (he allowed a 77.5 percent completion rate in 45 targets last season with zero interceptions). Help is unlikely to come from a rookie source because the team had only three draft picks.
That doesn’t mean Seattle is doomed to regress, but the level of talent across the rest of the NFC West probably does. The Rams have a quarterback who can embrace Sean McVay’s offensive fireworks in Matthew Stafford, as well as the reigning defensive player of the year. The 49ers finally have a healthy roster, managed to still rank as a top-six defense even in spite of a litany of injuries, and are less than two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. The Cardinals have a talented enough defense that if Kliff Kingsbury can be even 30 percent the genius Arizona thought he was upon his hiring they should improve from last year’s 8-8 mark.
The Seahawks have the toughest battle to retain their division crown and arguably did the least to improve in the West. Unless Russ cooks his ass off, this could be only the second time Seattle misses the postseason since 2011.
Ryan: I want to say Tennessee, but I’m not convinced the Colts can take the top spot in the AFC South either. There’s no way New Orleans wins the NFC South this year.
Which team is most likely to go 8-8-1?
Sarah: To me, the three most obvious candidates are the Washington Football Team, Cardinals, and Vikings.
I’m hopeful the Cardinals can get over the hump and if not make the playoffs, at least wind up with a winning record. The Vikings have been a mess this preseason, for reasons both football related and not. Even though Kirk Cousins is a .500 quarterback personified — his career record, I kid you not, is 51-51-2 — right now I can’t trust this team to put together a non-losing record.
So that leaves Washington, which could have the best defense in the NFL this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick will alternate between moments of brilliance (he did go to Harvard after all!) and moments where he looks like, well, a 38-year-old journeyman starting for his ninth team. That should still be an improvement over Washington’s quarterback situation last year.
With a difficult schedule and a still-limited offense, Washington’s record probably won’t be too far removed from last year’s 7-9 finish ... but hey, that might be enough to win the NFC East again.
Ryan: This feels like a very Chicago Bears thing to me. The team’s already committed to throwing away at least the first part of the season with Andy Dalton under center, and if anyone is a true .500 player …
Which two teams will earn No. 1 seeds in the playoffs?
Christian: The Bills and Packers. Buffalo has an easier schedule than the Chiefs. Green Bay remains a regular season stalwart and, as good as the Buccaneers look, they still lost five games last year (including one to Nick Foles! That happened! The man just can’t stop beating Tom Brady!). Another scorched-earth campaign from Aaron Rodgers should be enough to get Green Bay an extra week off before underwhelming in the playoffs again.
Sarah: I’ll go with two playoff teams from last year that don’t appear headed for a downturn and have two of the easiest schedules in the NFL: the Bills and Buccaneers. (The alliteration is just a bonus.)
It’d be easy to default to the Chiefs in the AFC. They’ve secured the top seed in two of the last three years, and unless Patrick Mahomes misses significant time, they’ll be right back in the postseason come January.
But their schedule is fairly difficult, including four games against the toughest division in the conference, the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Bills will face the worst division, the AFC South.
The Bucs, despite being the defending champions, were blessed with an easier schedule in part because they finished in second, not first, in the NFC South last year. They also lucked into playing the entire NFC East, so go ahead and pencil in four wins right there.
Ryan: The Bucs. But the curveball one from me is the Steelers. I’m not a fan of Ben Roethlisberger, but the hype around his health, and specifically his arm strength, seem to actually be real, not just the usual training camp bullshit.
Who will end up as Super Bowl 56 champs?
Christian: The Kansas City Chiefs. The offensive line issues that cost them Super Bowl 54 have been fixed, at least on the surface. The defense is still good enough to create enough space for Patrick Mahomes to find his rhythm. The rest of the AFC is a rising tide, but no one has the top gear Kansas City does … yet.
Sarah: Even though NFL teams almost never repeat in this day and age (it’s been almost two decades since we’ve had back-to-back champs), I picked the Chiefs to win it all last year and stuck with that prediction until about the second quarter of Super Bowl 55.
I could ride with the Chiefs again this year and feel entirely comfortable with that decision, but to be honest, I don’t want to. I don’t mean that as an insult against KC at all; I simply would rather mix it up a little.
It’s often an act of folly to believe a team that has never won a Super Bowl will break that streak, especially one with a history of unprecedented failure in the big game. But what the heck, I’ll take the Bills.
Two notes: 1) My preseason Super Bowl prediction is never right and 2) about 80 percent of the time, for one reason or another, I’m annoyed with whichever team wins the Super Bowl. Cole Beasley represents so much of what’s wrong with our society right now that I’m not in favor of anything that brings him professional success.
So either I’ll finally guess the correct Super Bowl winner, or Beasley will end the season as a loser, to match his off-field personality.
Ryan: The Bucs. If everyone stays healthy, they’re just so good, loaded everywhere. Plus, we’ve not advanced far enough as a society to deserve anything other than another Tom Brady Super Bowl win. Sorry.
Who do you think will win Comeback Player of the Year honors?
Christian: It’s almost certainly going to be Dak Prescott, who returns to a Cowboy lineup that is loaded with weapons and happens to play in the league’s weakest division. Joe Burrow could usurp him if he can get the Bengals to approach respectability after suffering the kind of knee injury that would have, 50 years ago, reduced him to cigarette spokesperson. I’ll leave a dark horse spot available for Odell Beckham Jr. as well, though I’m beginning to think the Browns don’t particularly need him.
Ryan: Unlikely he’d beat out Dak, but I wonder if Saquon Barkley could sneak into the conversation.
Which non-quarterback has a chance at winning MVP?
Christian D’Andrea: Alvin Kamara. Derrick Henry’s been the answer each of the last two years, but his track record against good teams last season is a concern. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry against non-playoff teams and a useful, but less impressive 4.3 against defenses that made it to the postseason.
The Titans went 4-5 in those games and, after winning the AFC South, have been rewarded with 10 games against teams who were .500 or better last fall. There’s a chance Henry is merely very good rather than superhuman, but Tennessee will still likely be a pretty good team because A.J. Brown and Julio Jones can pick up any slack.
The Saints don’t have that safety net. Their new quarterback threw 30 interceptions the last time he started a full season. WR1 Michael Thomas will miss at least six weeks to start the year and the group behind him is … uninspiring. If the Saints return to the playoffs, it’ll almost certainly ride on Kamara doing the heavy lifting -- and that’d make him my non-QB MVP.
Which rookie will put up the most receiving yards in 2021?
Christian: I’m gonna drop off the beaten path and throw Elijah Moore’s name into the mix. Ole Miss wideouts have acclimated to the league in record time recently and he’s going to be part of a Jets’ offense that will be throwing the ball all over the field in an effort to erase some unfortunate deficits. His main competition for targets includes Corey Davis (good and occasionally great when healthy), Jamison Crowder (sure), Keelan Cole (uh), Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims (oh no). If he hits the ground running he could work his way into 6-8 targets per game early in the year.
Sarah: Since we didn’t specify that it had to be a wide receiver, my vote goes to a tight end. It just so happens that Kyle Pitts looks nothing like other tight ends:
I trust new Falcons coach Arthur Smith, who worked wonders as the Titans OC, to know how to use Pitts — i.e., not in a traditional tight end role. Considering the continuing sad state of their defense, the Falcons will need to win shootout-type games, which means the offense will be throwing a lot. While Calvin Ridley is WR1 and Julio Jones is in Tennessee, Pitts could quickly become Matt Ryan’s second-favorite target.
Last year, Justin Jefferson set a new rookie record with 1,400 receiving yards. I don’t expect Pitts, or anyone else, to come anywhere close to that number, even with a 17th game. But if he approaches the tight end rookie receiving record, then Pitts could also end up leading the entire 2021 draft class.
Who will be the most sacked quarterback this season?
Christian: Zach Wilson. He’s going to be playing behind a line that has Mekhi Becton and not much else in terms of dependable blocking. He’s going to be playing for a team that will be trailing most of the time. He’s a deep ball aficionado who needs time in the pocket for his receivers to get downfield. He’s gonna get hit a lot.
Runner-up: Tyrod Taylor. He’ll win the per-game prize, but there’s no way he’s gonna play 17 games. Or, if we want to defer to tradition, Russell Wilson getting treated like a pinata is as richly associated with Seattle as unaffordable rent or terrible baseball.
Sarah: Last year, Daniel Jones was the fourth-most sacked quarterback in the league despite playing in only 14 games. In just 27 career appearances, he’s already been sacked 83 times. That pattern carried over into the preseason:
That’s hardly a surprise, either, since the Giants didn’t make any major moves to improve their offensive line. They didn’t sign a notable free agent or draft a highly regarded offensive lineman. A couple of vets they signed in the summer quickly retired rather than put up with Joe Judge’s BS. Nate Solder returns after opting out of the 2020 season, but he’s 33 and didn’t play all that well last time he was on the field. They recently traded for Billy Price, who was a disappointment in Cincinnati and will start his Giants tenure as a backup.
Maybe the young offensive line can develop into the hog mollies Dave Gettleman insists they are, but they won’t have much time: the Giants start the season against the Broncos (Von Miller, Bradley Chubb), Washington (Chase Young and the rest of the nasty bunch), and the Falcons (for real — thanks to Dean Pees).
Jones might end up as this season’s most sacked quarterback thanks to September alone.