How each AFC team could disappoint in 2023

These aren't *quite* worst-case scenarios.

So often, August is a time for optimism in the NFL. It’s easy to believe your favorite team will win 13 games, at minimum, when almost every single player is in the best shape of his life and the training camp clips you watch mostly lack context. 

This week, I took the opposite attitude and focused on ways teams could instead disappoint. I led off the week with a look at how it could happen in NFC and will close out the week with the AFC side of things.

Baltimore Ravens: If the offense isn’t dangerous

For the past few years, the Ravens have been trying to recapture their 2019 season, when they boasted the best offense in the league and Lamar Jackson won MVP honors. But injuries, a lack of weapons around Jackson, and questionable playcalling have all contributed to Baltimore’s offensive inconsistencies. 

The Ravens were proactive this offseason to try to fix those problems. They hired Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator, signed Odell Beckham Jr., drafted athletic receiver Zay Flowers, and extended Jackson. By all accounts, they should be, as tight end Mark Andrews put it, “dangerous.” Now if they can just stay healthy …

Buffalo Bills: If they flounder in the postseason (again)

The Bills have tallied double-digits wins in four consecutive seasons. By the time 2023 comes to a close, they’ll probably tack on another year to that streak. And yet, they only have one appearance in the AFC title game, and zero Super Bowl trips, to show for it. 

For Buffalo, simply making the playoffs was a huge accomplishment not that long ago. These Bills have higher aspirations, and Josh Allen and the rest of the team are talented enough to go all the way, as Jim Nantz predicted they would this year. To do so, however, they have to play the same kind of football in January as they have been playing in October.

Cincinnati Bengals: If they don’t take advantage of this window

Like the Bills, the Bengals have experienced a recent resurgence but have still never won a Super Bowl. Unlike the Bills, the Bengals have at least played for the Lombardi Trophy not too long ago. 

That’s the objective in Cincinnati: to get back to the Super Bowl and win it this time. Currently, the Bengals have the right formula to make it happen, with a young franchise QB still waiting for his first extension, dynamic receivers on their rookie contracts, and a couple of cornerstone defenders. Earlier this year, Joe Burrow famously said the Bengals’ Super Bowl window is “his whole career” — and I don’t necessarily disagree with him — but the fact remains that they are in prime position right now to claim the franchise’s first ever championship. Gotta strike while the iron is hot.

Cleveland Browns: If Deshaun Watson stinks it up 

The Browns’ futility at the quarterback position is a well-known and lengthy saga. I mean, Baker Mayfield ranks fourth in franchise history in passing yards. Tim Couch is sixth! 

They paid an obscene price, in more ways than one, to remedy that when they traded for Deshaun Watson. Last season, Watson served an 11-game suspension after he was accused by more than two dozen women of sexual misconduct. When he returned to the field, he wasn’t even as productive as backup Jacoby Brissett. This year, his first as a full-time starter since 2020, Watson has to prove he’s still the quarterback he used to be, or else Cleveland’s big-time gamble on him is going to look like its worst QB decision yet — and that’s saying something.

Denver Broncos: If Russell Wilson doesn’t get back on track

Sean Payton caused a stir when he blasted Nathaniel Hackett’s coaching job last year in Denver — the Jets don’t seem to be in a particularly forgiving/forgetting mood about it. Maybe Payton broke an unspoken coaches rule, but he wasn’t exactly wrong either. Still, Russell Wilson deserves some of the blame for his 2022 struggles, too. 

Payton was hired to resurrect both Wilson and the Broncos’ moribund offense. While their training camp got off to a rough start (so many injuries), Wilson and the offense have been on the upswing. Now we’ll see if that carries over to the regular season. If not, Payton won’t have Hackett to point fingers at this time.

Houston Texans: If the future doesn’t look promising 

The Texans don’t have to win a lot of games — and they probably won’t — to fulfill their 2023 mission. What they do need to do is show signs of turning a corner under first-time head coach DeMeco Ryans. The defense, Ryans’ specialty, hasn’t been respectable since 2018 and will have to improve. So far, there’s room for optimism there. 

The offense will receive most of the attention, however, particularly No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud. It’s fair to expect some bumps along the way for any rookie quarterback, but Stroud, similar to No. 1 pick Bryce Young, needs to flash his potential.

Indianapolis Colts: If the offense is D.O.A.

Last season, the Colts had the No. 32-ranked offense in the league, per DVOA. I suppose that’s what happens when you shuffle between ineffective options at quarterback and have Jeff Saturday, fresh from the ESPN studios, as your coach for half the season. 

Shane Steichen, who thrived as the OC in Philadelphia, takes over for Saturday and probably can’t do any worse. Although this is Steichen’s first head coaching gig, he has worked with many smart football minds throughout his career. Steichen has proven to be creative with his offenses in the past, which makes his pairing with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson exciting. But there’s still so much we don’t know about what kind of NFL player the 21-year-old will be. That, plus a disgruntled Jonathan Taylor, means fans might have to be patient with Indy’s offense. That’s fine. Another season of a flaccid offense is not.

Jacksonville Jaguars: If they don’t build off their momentum

The Jaguars’ arrival came a little sooner than anticipated. After a mostly forgettable 4-8 start to 2022, they reeled off five straight wins to claim the AFC South, then added another victory in the postseason. 

The last time the Jags made the playoffs before that was during the 2017 season, when they nearly upset the Patriots. That wasn’t a starting-off point to a better future, though. Rather, Jacksonville followed up that season by returning to its bad habits: infrequent wins and fourth-place finishes in the division. The situations aren’t quite comparable. For one, the Jags’ quarterback then was Blake Bortles, and now it’s Trevor Lawrence, who has the skills to be one of the greats (Doug Pederson thinks he’s already there). If Lawrence doesn’t take another step forward, the Jaguars probably won’t either — and then they’d be back to their playoff-less ways.

Kansas City Chiefs: If they don’t repeat 

Every NFL team has the same goal every season: win the Super Bowl. And that’s really hard to do! At most, about a third of the league has a decent shot at doing so in a given year, and even then, only a handful of franchises are obvious contenders. 

It’s disappointing for those that come up short, but that doesn’t mean the season was a failure. Look at the two most recent Super Bowl runners-up: the Eagles and Bengals can feel proud for all they accomplished those seasons. It’s a different story for the Chiefs, who are aiming for dynasty status and, per Patrick Mahomes, need another title to call themselves one. It won’t be easy for Kansas City to check that box this season — no team has repeated as champs in almost two decades, since the dynastic Patriots. 

Las Vegas Raiders: If the Josh McDaniels Experience flames out

Josh McDaniels was viewed as a wunderkind when the Broncos hired the then-32-year-old as their coach in 2009. His tenure lasted 28 games, and McDaniels went back to his OC roots. It took another dozen years until he officially accepted his next head coaching job (a few years after he backed out of the Colts’ gig). 

In his first year in Vegas, McDaniels didn’t appear to have learned many lessons from his failed stint in Denver. The Raiders set a dubious NFL record for blown leads, and Derek Carr and McDaniels just never seemed to mesh. That won’t be the case with new Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who worked with McDaniels in New England. If Garoppolo’s injury issues continue to plague him, though, then McDaniels might have a tough time turning things around.

Los Angeles Chargers: If the Chargering strikes again

For 30 minutes in the playoffs, the Chargers looked the part of a contender. Then they Chargers-ed it. So how do they conquer the franchise’s extensive history of heartbreak? It could be the simple matter of having a stronger mentality. Because from a talent standpoint, the Chargers are in solid shape. Quarterback Justin Herbert is already one of the best young QBs in the league and keeps getting better. His receivers and offensive line are (when healthy) good. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are one of the top pass-rushing tandems in the NFL (when healthy). 

Now if they could just get out of their own way and not completely collapse, especially when the postseason rolls around.

Miami Dolphins: If they don’t make a run in the playoffs

The Dolphins might have been a little ahead of schedule when they secured a spot in the playoffs in Mike McDaniel’s first year. They could have gone even further if they hadn’t been forced to start rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson in the Wild Card Round — Miami nearly pulled off the upset against Buffalo. 

Tua Tagovailoa is healthy now and has taken steps this offseason to stay that way in the future. Tagovailoa was enjoying a third-year breakout when his season ended early. If he can pick up where he left off, and if the defense can improve under the legendary watch of Vic Fangio, then the Dolphins should make it back to the postseason. That won’t be good enough, though. They also need to win at least one game in the playoffs, something they haven’t done since 2000.

New England Patriots: If the offense continues to languish

The Patriots would have been a playoff team last year if they had fielded an even mediocre offense. Instead, the offense was worse than that, which was bound to happen when Bill Belichick put Matt Patricia in charge of it. Pretty much every offensive player regressed, second-year quarterback Mac Jones most of all. 

The offense is now in capable hands again after Belichick brought Bill O’Brien back to New England. That alone gives Jones a chance for a bounce-back year, as does the addition of vets like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ezekiel Elliott. The offense won’t light up the scoreboard, but it shouldn’t have to paired with top-tier defense. It simply needs to be average. And if it can’t, maybe rookie Malik Cunningham can give the Pats a spark. 

New York Jets: If Aaron Rodgers isn’t the missing ingredient

Everything you read about Aaron Rodgers’ coupling with the Jets suggests that it’s a match made in heaven. The same thing happens when you watch the new season of Hard Knocks. But what if Rodgers is losing a step, as he looked like last season? And even if Rodgers is his normal elite QB self, what if his offensive line can’t protect the soon-to-be 40-year-old?

Robert Saleh laid into the OL in the latest episode of Hard Knocks, summing up what has been the Jets’ No. 1 problem during their 12-year playoff drought: the offense has stunk it up! If that continues to be the case in 2023, even with a future Hall of Fame quarterback under center, then that postseason-less streak will become a teenager.

Pittsburgh Steelers: If they finish below .500

This offseason, the Steelers seem to be the overlooked team in the AFC North, which is wild to think considering Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in his 16 years as head coach. And yet, the hype is practically nonexistent. 

Maybe that’s because Kenny Pickett is still a bit of a question mark at quarterback and needs to make a jump in his second season, the defensive mainstays are all getting older, and the Steelers are … well, a little boring, especially compared to the rest of the division. There are legit reasons this could be the year Tomlin suffers his first below-.500 season. Underestimate him at your own risk, though.

Tennessee Titans: If they don’t reclaim the AFC South

Despite a slew of injuries to key players last year, the Titans were still in position to win their division for the third straight year. However, in the final week of the season, a fumble call went against recently signed free agent Joshua Dobbs, who started the pivotal clash. The Jaguars got the win and with it, the AFC South crown. 

Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and Harold Landry are back this season and healthy (for the time being at least). Joining them is new Titan DeAndre Hopkins, who should give the receiving corps a much-needed boost. The Titans are loaded with experience, and with a little better injury luck, they can contend for the division as they have every year Mike Vrabel has been the head coach. But will that be enough to hold off the upstart Jags? If not, it could be time for a roster reset in Tennessee.