How each NFC team could disappoint in 2023
Some teams will surpass expectations but others will fall short.
It’s been over a week now since the USWNT lost in gut-wrenching fashion in the Women’s World Cup. It wasn’t terribly surprising because the team just never seemed to jell, but it was still a major letdown that the two-time defending champs bowed out so early.
In all honesty, I’m not over it yet, even though I’ve been able to turn my attention to NFL games in the time since (well, preseason, anyway). While I usually don’t like to take a pessimistic approach to the start of the new season, the USWNT’s disappointing loss has left me in a certain mood, wondering how each NFL team could suffer a similar fate in its own way.
Like I’ve done in the past, I’m breaking this topic into two separate newsletters, one focusing on the AFC and the other on the NFC. However, as a change of pace, I’m tackling the NFC first. Keep an eye out for the AFC version later this week.
Arizona Cardinals: If they can’t figure out what to do with Kyler Murray
The Cardinals are the favorites to land the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — as summed up in this brief glimpse of training camp. If that’s how this season unfolds, then Arizona has a decision to make about its current quarterback (and one-time No. 1 pick) Kyler Murray: Stick with him after extending him just last year, or try to find a trade partner and draft USC QB Caleb Williams.
Murray’s late-2022 ACL tear complicates matters. He could miss significant time, depending on how his recovery goes. If he returns in decent time, how good — or bad — would he have to play for the Cards to know definitively what to do with Murray? There might not be an easy answer.
Atlanta Falcons: If the offense isn’t more balanced
Last season, only the Bears threw less than the Falcons did. No team ran the ball more than Atlanta, too. Without an elite mobile quarterback — which Marcus Mariota was not and Desmond Ridder isn’t either — that’s just no way to compete in today’s NFL.
Hopefully, Arthur Smith has figured out that sweet spot between the pass-happy Matt Ryan days and the run-heavy offense from a year ago. I mean, what’s the point of using a high draft pick on dynamic targets like Kyle Pitts and Drake London, as well as the versatile Bijan Robinson, if you’re not going to get them the ball?
Carolina Panthers: If Bryce Young doesn’t look like the answer
I don’t want to sound like the Panthers’ entire season is riding solely on Bryce Young’s shoulders, because that’s both not true and unfair to the 22-year-old rookie. If Young struggles in his first season, then there would be plenty of blame to go around, from the coaching staff to the offensive line to the receiving corps to the front office.
Young doesn’t need to be the NFL Offensive Rookie of Year, however, to have a successful Year 1 campaign. All he needs to do is show flashes of being the franchise QB that the Panthers expected him to be when they traded up to draft him first overall.
Chicago Bears: If the passing game doesn’t improve
The entire Bears offense knows that Justin Fields has to throw for more — a lot more — than the 149.5 yards per game he averaged in 2022. Fields most of all. As coach Matt Eberflus said, the biggest issue is that Fields needs to trust his receivers, and his receivers need to give their quarterback a reason to trust them.
New Bears receiver DJ Moore is helping the cause, at least during training camp and preseason. Now they just need to carry over that momentum to the regular season.
Dallas Cowboys: If they have another early playoff exit
The Cowboys might have Super Bowl aspirations, but before they can even think about playing for an NFL championship, they have to first win an NFC championship. And that would require getting to Conference Championship Weekend, which they haven’t done since January 1996, weeks before Leighton Vander Esch was born.
Last year, they made a little progress by winning a road playoff game for the first time since 1992. They followed that up with an offensive dud against the 49ers for the second straight postseason. Will Mike McCarthy taking over playcalling duties change Dallas’ playoff luck? I have many doubts, but at least he does have a Divisional Round win at AT&T Stadium on his resume.
Detroit Lions: If they Lions it up
Dan Campbell has alternated between downplaying expectations and embracing them, in a way that only he can: that is, by paraphrasing Bette Midler and adding in a near-swear word.
If you ask most Lions fans, they’re approaching this new season with wary excitement. Yes, the Lions clicked at the end of last year and looked the part of NFC North contender … but Detroit faithful have been burned too many times before.
Green Bay Packers: If the Jordan Love era is a bust
Three years ago, Green Bay risked Aaron Rodgers’ petty wrath by drafting his eventual replacement. Jordan Love, despite being a first-round pick, was viewed as a bit of a project and, as such, has appeared in only 10 games so far in his career.
After a down season from Rodgers, the Packers and their longtime quarterback agreed to part ways, paving the way for Love to take over, just as Rodgers once did for Brett Favre. I don’t think it’d be fair to compare what Love does this season to Rodgers in his MVP form, but the young QB does need to justify why the Packers put their faith in him. Besides, if Love doesn’t work out, Rodgers would be soooo annoying about it.
Los Angeles Rams: If they’re boring
Almost no one has high hopes for the Rams this season, other than those in the Rams locker room. Sean McVay’s usually high-flying offense had its worst season, by far, in 2022 (No. 23 in offensive DVOA) after Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp were lost for the year.
Following an unremarkable offseason, GM Les Snead has declared the Rams “boring,” but even during a rebuild, they don’t have to be a chore to watch each week. It could depend on how healthy their key players are — Stafford and Aaron Donald are injury-free right now, though Kupp is not.
Minnesota Vikings: If they majorly backslide
The Vikings will almost certainly take a step back this year after they finished last season with a 13-4 record and a negative point differential. There’s no way they’ll replicate their success in one-score games (11-0 in 2022!), but they don’t have to, either, in order to contend in an up-for-grabs NFC North.
Even with a few fewer wins, Minnesota can get to the postseason. However, if the Vikings can’t withstand the losses of several veterans (such as Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and Eric Kendricks), then it’s not hard to imagine them reverting back to the last years of the Mike Zimmer era, when they were a nine-loss team — and just outside the playoff picture.
New Orleans Saints: If the Derek Carr signing is a flop
The Saints find themselves in prime position to snag a playoff berth, just as they were the last two seasons before ultimately coming up short. The New Orleans defense, under one-time DC and now head coach Dennis Allen, has continued to carry the team. But the Saints need more production from the offense and just haven’t had much luck at the quarterback position since Drew Brees’ retirement two years ago.
Will Derek Carr change their fortunes? Well, it depends on which Carr they get this year: the one who has been a solid quarterback in his career, or the one whose Raiders tenure ended ignominiously. In other words, will he be Philip Rivers with the Colts or Matt Ryan with the Colts?
New York Giants: If the Daniel Jones contract looks like a mistake
This offseason, the Giants had to make a decision about both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, who were set to become free agents. And because this is 2023, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that they gave their quarterback a big extension and franchise-tagged their running back.
The details of Jones’ contract did cause some of us to do a double take, though: $160 million for Daniel Jones?! On the one hand, Jones shined in his first year under Brian Daboll, putting together his best statistical season and leading the Giants to a playoff win. On the other hand, it was just one season and Jones, well, stunk it up against the Eagles in a playoff loss. At this point, I don’t think any of us know who the real Jones is as a quarterback, but 2023 should give us some clarity, good or bad.
Philadelphia Eagles: If they don’t win the NFC East
It’s been almost 20 years since the Eagles won back-to-back NFC East titles — the last team to accomplish that feat. While the division has quickly transformed from a laughingstock to a powerhouse, Philadelphia boasts the all-around talent on both sides of the ball to end the two-decade drought.
Of course, the Eagles are dreaming bigger than a division championship, and they can and should make the playoffs even if they don’t win the NFC East. Still, it’d be a disappointment if they fumbled their momentum from Jalen Hurts’ breakout year and let *gasp* the Cowboys claim the division instead.
San Francisco 49ers: If they play QB musical chairs again
Since 2015, the 49ers have only enjoyed one season in which a single quarterback started every game for them. That was Jimmy Garoppolo in 2019, the same year they made the Super Bowl. Even still, I don’t think I would have described them as cursed at the position until I watched injured third-stringer Brock Purdy being forced to play in the NFC title game when journeyman fourth-stringer Josh Johnson also got hurt.
Purdy is the unofficial starter now and seems to be recovering well from his arm injury, but what if he has a setback or what if his 5-0 stint in the regular season was a fluke? Sam Darnold and Trey Lance are both former starters competing for the backup job who could take over if Purdy struggles or gets hurt again. They also both have their own lengthy injury history, so maybe Kyle Shanahan should keep Philip Rivers on standby.
Seattle Seahawks: If Geno Smith regresses
Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year campaign was one of the best storylines of 2022. In his first season since 2014 as a full-time starter, he put up career numbers and led the Seahawks to a surprise playoff spot. This offseason, Seattle gave Smith an extension and arguably the No. 1 receiver in the draft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, much to Smith’s delight.
Yet there’s reason for caution with Smith: He’ll turn 33 this year. He totaled 31 turnover-worthy plays last year. And in his final six games — five in the regular season, one in the postseason — his passer rating only topped 100 once after he did so nine times through the first 12 weeks, and he threw as many interceptions (six) in that latter portion as he did in the earlier one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If the defense doesn’t rebound
The “honor” of most uninspiring quarterback battle this year goes to Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Needless to say, even with a new offensive coordinator, the Bucs probably won’t light it up this year. The defense has higher expectations. In fact, Antoine Winfield Jr. says Tampa is aiming to have the No. 1 defense in the league in 2023.
The unit took a step back last season, especially against the run, when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles was elevated to head coach. With many of its big names back on defense — including Winfield Jr., Carlton Davis, Devin White, and Shaq Barrett — the Bucs have the right pieces to dominate again on that side of the ball. They better hope so anyway, since that’s their only real chance of competing.
Washington Commanders: If the offense is still limp
Ron Rivera raised eyebrows recently when he said some players seemed uncertain about new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s intensity, causing Washington’s head coach to clarify that his remarks weren’t meant to be criticism.
If the Commanders have trouble adjusting to Bieniemy’s offense, then 2023 could be yet another season — every year post-Kirk Cousins — that the team has had to rely on its defense to shoulder the load. But the offense, even with questions about Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, has the makings to be competent this year, if the players buy in to Bieniemy’s tough love.