7 questions — and 7 predictions — about the 2024 NFL season

It's never easy to predict what will happen in any NFL season.

The 2024 NFL season is just days away, meaning I’m running out of time to get my preseason predictions in writing. I better fix that!

Before I get to it, I wanted to let you know that I will be changing up this newsletter a bit this season. I have a separate gig that will keep me busy, and I won’t be able to send out my usual post-Sunday reaction newsletter. However, I plan to keep publishing my weekly picks every Friday. 

I have a better track record at making game picks than I do at foreseeing what will happen in a given season. But that hasn’t stopped me before and I predict that it won’t in the future, either. 

So let’s take a look at a few storylines heading into the new season and my (probably wrong) guesses as to how they will all unfold. 

Will the Chiefs threepeat?

This season, the Chiefs will be looking to make history (again). The back-to-back champs will try to win their third Super Bowl in a row, a feat that has never been accomplished.

A couple of franchises have come close, though. Two decades ago, the Patriots claimed three titles in four years. The Cowboys did the same in the ‘90s. And just like them, the Chiefs have stability where it matters most: at head coach and at the quarterback position. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the two biggest reasons, by far, that Kansas City has played in four of the last five Super Bowls. 

Barring an injury to Mahomes, there’s little chance that the Chiefs won’t be a contender this year. In fact, depending on which sportsbook you prefer to cite, they’re the current Super Bowl 59 favorites. 

That doesn’t mean they’re inevitable, even if it feels like it sometimes. There’s still a ton of uncertainty in the receiving corps outside of tight end Travis Kelce, who will be 35 soon. One free agent who was supposed to bring both experience and playmaking to the group, Hollywood Brown, has been sidelined with a collarbone injury and won’t be ready for Week 1. A youngster who seemed on the verge of stardom, Rashee Rice, has been dealing with legal troubles this offseason.

And while the defense is coming off its best season in the Mahomes era, it’s fair to wonder if this will be a top-10 unit again.

But, as they proved last season, never count the Chiefs out. Did the team that lost at home on Christmas Day to Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders look like it was seven weeks away from winning a title? No. Yet that’s what happened. 

Even if they get off to a slow start again this year — which seems doubtful based on their relatively easy strength of schedule — the Chiefs are always a threat to go into turbo mode. Because KC knows exactly what it takes to go all the way. 

My prediction: No. 

The pieces still have to fall in just the right place for any championship team, even one that’s been there before. I have reservations about the rest of the contenders — i.e. the 49ers’ and Ravens’ OL, Josh Allen’s supporting cast, the Lions’ defense — so I’m not entirely confident in picking the Super Bowl 59 winner right now. I will venture a guess anyway because it’s just for fun: Ravens over Lions.

Alas, I will almost certainly be wrong. The real Super Bowl matchup is almost never that exciting.

Will there be a first-time MVP?

It’s practically a given that the 2024 NFL MVP will be a quarterback considering the last 11 honorees have all come at that position. The last non-QB MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. 

There’s a decent chance that he will be a repeat winner. Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes have accounted for the last six MVPs, with each QB earning two apiece in that time span. They’re also the only active players to win MVP. 

While the oddsmakers have tabbed Mahomes as the preseason MVP favorite this year, you have to scroll a little ways until Jackson’s name pops up. Between the two are a handful of other quarterbacks who have been in the conversation but have never been MVP: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. After half of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks are listed (Rodgers shows up between Dak Prescott and Jared Goff), the first player at another position finally appears. That would be Christian McCaffrey, the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year. 

Last season, McCaffrey finished third in MVP voting, just ahead of his quarterback, Brock Purdy. So it’s not as if CMC is a long shot for the award … but I still wouldn’t bet against a quarterback.

My prediction: No. 

Most likely, there will be several MVP candidates heading into the last month of the season, but no one who has completely separated himself from the pack. That would put the first half of December as the most decisive time in this race. 

Mahomes will have a chance to shine a couple of times then. The Chiefs will face two playoff teams from a year ago — the Browns and Texans — in that stretch. Presumably, Kansas City will lock down the AFC West for the ninth straight season at that point, if not earlier. 

In one sense, Mahomes would kind of be the default choice. He’s the best player in the NFL and has the Super Bowl rings to prove it. But he’ll have earned it, too. I think KC will end up with a better record and a higher-scoring offense this year than last year, with Mahomes doing most of the heavy lifting.

Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year? 

As you might recall, this year’s draft set a record with the number of offensive players taken in the first round. So apologies to the defensive rookies, but all eyes will be on the first-year offensive guys. 

Unlike the MVP award, there tends to be a little more variety in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. In the last seven seasons, quarterbacks have won the award three times, while running backs and wide receivers boast two each. 

The competition should be fierce this year. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is one of three rookies to earn the starting QB job in Week 1. No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels and No. 12 pick Bo Nix are also starters out of the gate, both with less help than Williams has in Chicago. If either can pull a C.J. Stroud — that is, lead a team with low expectations to a playoff berth — then they’ll be strong OROTY candidates. 

Although this was a weak year for running backs, the wide receiver class is loaded. In particular, top-six picks Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers should show out in year one, even if neither the Cardinals nor the Giants are expected to make much noise.

My prediction: Caleb Williams. 

Another boring choice, I know. But Williams is in a unique situation for someone who was drafted so high. Even if there are some “growing pains,” Williams doesn’t have to do it all, not with elite receivers like DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and fellow rookie Rome Odunze. Still, Williams can obviously play that role when need be. I would guess that in the second half of the season, he really starts to come into his own as the Bears push for a postseason berth.

Which team will field the best defense this season?

There’s not just one way to grade a defense. Defenses used to be rated by how many points or yards they allowed each week. In the analytics era, advanced stats like DVOA, EPA per play, and success rate are favored. 

By those metrics, either the Ravens or Browns had the No. 1-ranked defense in the NFL last season, followed by the Jets. Other notable top-10 units included the 49ers, Chiefs, and Cowboys. 

My prediction: The Jets. 

I still believe the Ravens and Browns will be near the top of the rankings. But scary enough for the rest of the league, the Jets should be even better on defense. 

They didn’t lose any major contributors this offseason while gaining a couple of potential game-changers with Javon Kinlaw and Haason Reddick … assuming the latter’s holdout ever ends. If not, second-year pass rusher Will McDonald IV could be poised for a breakout season. The Jets also return arguably the best secondary in the NFL, with sure-tackling safety Chuck Clark back after he missed last season with a knee injury. 

Perhaps most importantly, the defense should get more of a breather this year. A healthy Aaron Rodgers, even if he’s not in MVP form, can at the very least make the offense halfway competent, a far cry from how it’s looked the past few years. If Rodgers and Co. can stay on the field longer, the defense will get a chance to rest more — and have more time to figure out how it’s going to ruin the opposing quarterback’s day.

Which playoff droughts will end?

Last season, the Texans were a surprise team, making it back to the playoffs for the first time in four years. The Lions ended several much more dubious postseason streaks of their own. They secured a division title and hosted a playoff game for the first time in 30 years, they won their first playoff game and advanced to the conference championship round for the first time in 32 years, and they very nearly made it to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. 

The Dolphins weren’t quite as lucky, despite back-to-back postseason berths for the first time in more than two decades. Miami hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000, which is now the longest active drought in the NFL. Will that change come January? Maybe! But I have my sights set on two other teams to make their long-suffering fans happy, at least temporarily. 

My prediction: The Jets will make the playoffs and the Lions will finally get to the Super Bowl. 

Currently, the Jets own the longest active playoff-less streak in the league. They haven’t sniffed the postseason since the 2010 season. I think that will change this year, provided that Rodgers doesn’t get seriously hurt again. Even average quarterback play could turn Garrett Wilson into a bona fide star receiver. Add in a dominant defense and the ingredients are there for the Jets to return to the postseason. 

The Lions are one of four franchises — along with the Texans, Jaguars, and Browns — without a Super Bowl appearance. I know it’s dangerous to ever believe good things can happen to the Lions, but they lived up to their high expectations last year. Perhaps even surpassed them. And Dan Campbell has done an admirable job of building his players up while also keeping them focused and not buying into the hype too much.

Their schedule will be more difficult this season than last, but the offense should continue to be efficient under OC Ben Johnson and the defense should improve, at least if the newcomers stay healthy. 

So I will choose to be hopeful that the Lions can finally reach the Super Bowl this year, even if I’m not willing to bet on them to win the whole thing.

How many QBs will make a start this season?

Last year, a whopping 66 quarterbacks started at least one game in the NFL. Somehow, that’s not even a record. The year before that, 68 different quarterbacks made a start. 

Overall, we’ve seen that number steadily climb in recent years. In 2019, it was 57. In 2020, it was 59. In 2021, it was 62.

What will happen in 2024? Will the number dip for the second consecutive season, or will it rise again?

My prediction: It will slightly drop — 65 quarterbacks will start in 2024. 

Even with better injury luck at the position, I think every season from now on will feature 60+ starting quarterbacks. I base this prediction on a few factors. 

The regular season is longer than it used to be and will likely expand to 18 games in the near future. That doesn’t just lead to the potential for more injuries; coaches will also want to give their starting QB more rest and let them sit during meaningless games. Sometimes, those games are meaningless because a team has already clinched a playoff spot, and other times they’ve already been eliminated. When it’s the latter, teams might want to see what they have in a backup quarterback before deciding whether to move on from their regular starter.

Then there’s the emergency QB rule, which remains in effect after passing last offseason. Now, more franchises carry three quarterbacks on their 53-man roster than they used to, and for the reasons I just said, that gives teams more opportunity to play different guys under center if they have to or if they choose to. 

Will scoring continue to decline across the league?

In each of the last four seasons, the scoring average in the NFL has steadily fallen, from the Covid-impacted high of 24.8 points in 2020, back to a more normal 23.0 points in 2021, and then down to 21.9 points in 2022 and 21.8 points in 2023. That last number was the second-lowest average since 2010, after the 2017 season (which averaged 21.7 points). 

Will we see a new recent low in 2024, or will we get to enjoy more offense this year?

My prediction: Scoring will increase a little, to an average of 22.3 points. 

As we just established in the previous section, more quarterbacks are playing now than ever, and some of them stink out loud! It’s no wonder that scoring has decreased when, for example, Zach Wilson has started 33 games in the last three years.

It’s not just quarterbacks, either. Longer seasons mean more playing time for backups in general, and in those situations, it can be hard for the offense to gain a rhythm. 

I don’t think there will be an explosion of points each week in the NFL this season, but I do think we’re due for a higher average, even just a small jump, in 2024.