The obvious picks and shockers in the 1st round of the 2024 NFL Draft
The draft started off as chalk ... until it wasn't.
The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft both lived up to expectations and defied them. We knew offense would dominate the first night, but I don’t know how many of us guessed that we’d have to wait until pick No. 15 until a defensive player was chosen. And we knew there’d be a run on quarterbacks — but six in the top 12?!
Both of those trends, by the way, set a record. So did the number of offensive prospects taken in the first round (23), the number of receivers (7, tying a record), and the number of tackles (8, also tying a record). Not to mention, the attendance in Detroit.
In general, that’s how the NFL Draft usually unfolds: in ways both predictable and not. Last year, I monitored 16 different mock drafts from around the sports internet to see how accurate they ended up being. The result? Not very accurate. The “best” mock draft only had six picks that were right on the money.
I decided to try that experiment again this year, and overall, the mock drafts were slightly more precise1. Joel Klatt came out with the best hit rate: He nailed nine picks, and then identified one more right player/team combination but in the wrong spot.
Let’s take a look at all 32 picks, as well as how many of those 16 mocks were correct, or partially correct, with each selection.
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Correct mock drafts: 16/16
As everyone has anticipated for about two years now, Williams was the first player to hear his name called in the 2024 draft. The Bears have had rotten luck at quarterback since their Super Bowl win nearly 40 years ago, but Williams has been set up for success more than his predecessors.
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Correct mock drafts: 15/16
Despite a little late drama, Daniels became the Commanders’ highest-drafted QB since Robert Griffin III in 2012. He has a decent enough supporting cast to start right away, and Kliff Kingsbury should know how to get the most out of Daniels’ dual-threat skills. Hopefully, though, Washington targets an offensive lineman or two later in the draft so Daniels doesn’t take too many unnecessary sacks.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Correct mock drafts: 12/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 2/16 (two had Maye going No. 3 but thought the Vikings would jump up to get him)
According to Ian Rapoport, both the Vikings and Giants tried to trade up to No. 3. However, the Patriots chose what was probably the wise option in this draft and didn’t pass on the opportunity to land a promising quarterback. I don’t know if Maye can or should start in Week 1. Bill Belichick is a bit concerned about his lack of experience, though C.J. Stroud thinks Maye is the most NFL-ready of any QB this year. Either way, hopefully the new regime in New England is more patient with him, and helps him out more, than the old one did with Mac Jones.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Correct mock drafts: 16/16
More chalk! Unsurprisingly, no one was buying the idea that another receiver would be selected before Harrison Jr., who spends, like, 12 hours a day on the JUGS machine and definitely has the competitive spirit and work ethic to live up to his hype. No one was happier about the pick than Kyler Murray, who now has “Maserati Marv” as his No. 1 receiver.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
This pick had been trending toward an offensive tackle in recent weeks, but JC Latham had been the more popular projection for LA. Instead, the Chargers went with the baby-faced Joe Alt.
And if you’re wondering why the receiver-needy Chargers elected for a tackle over another skill player for Justin Herbert, then you should know that to Jim Harbaugh, offensive linemen are weapons.
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Correct mock drafts: 10/16
The Giants supposedly tried to move up for Maye, but the Patriots wouldn’t budge. If Nabers was indeed their plan B, then he’s a great consolation prize. While he might not be Daniel Jones’ favorite target from day one, he should be by the time the 2024 season is over.
7. Tennessee Titans: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
It wasn’t a secret that the Titans would use their first pick on an offensive lineman. That it ended up being Latham was a bit of a surprise, though. Maybe that’s because Alt, who was mocked often to Tennessee, wasn’t available. Or maybe the Titans wanted Latham all along.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Correct mock drafts: 0/16 (WHO WOULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING?)
I’m still kind of in shock about this one. I know I wasn’t the only person who yelled, “WHAT?” at the TV when Penix Jr. to the Falcons was announced. Kirk Cousins probably did too!
There are many reasons that this pick was a head-scratcher, but I suppose I’ll play devil’s advocate. Kirk Cousins will be 36 in August and is coming off a major Achilles injury. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the same player he was once. If need be, Penix could step into the lineup and let the ball fly, and per the latest mock drafts, he likely wasn’t going to fall past the Raiders at No. 13. In fact, three teams were reportedly trying to trade up to nab him. So if the Falcons liked him, they had to act fast — and they did, for better or worse.
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Correct mock drafts: 5/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 2/16 (one thought the Bears would trade up for Odunze at No. 7 and another thought the Colts would trade up to No. 9 for him)
Williams and Odunze were on the same flight to Detroit and days later found out they’ll be teammates. It’s like the NFL version of a romcom! The new BFFs are an exciting pairing on their own. Now add DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to the mix, and Chicago’s offense has the potential to light up the scoreboard. Still, I feel bad for Justin Fields that he never got this kind of support from the front office.
10. Minnesota Vikings (trade up): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 11/16 (split between draftniks who believed the Vikings would trade up to a higher spot for McCarthy, and those who believed they could stay and draft him at No. 11)
For months now, McCarthy has been linked to the Vikings, and most thought they’d have to move up to get him. However, no one in any of the mock drafts I tracked predicted that they’d only go up one spot. If the biggest knock on McCarthy is that he wasn’t asked to do much at Michigan, then at least he landed in a spot where he can once again get the ball to more talented players.
11. New York Jets (trade down): Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 4/16 (three mocks projected Fashanu as the No. 11 pick and another projected him to the Jets at No. 10)
Unless the Jets completely screwed things up, they were either going to come out of the first round with another weapon for their 40-year-old quarterback or more protection for him. And they didn’t screw it up! They even got some draft capital in exchange for moving down a spot and still winding up with a potential left tackle of the future.
12. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 3/16 (they thought the Broncos would trade down and snag Nix later in the first round)
In this case, the earlier mock drafts were more accurate than the most recent ones. Nix at No. 12 was a popular choice for most of this draft cycle, until this past week when there was no consensus on what the Broncos would do with their first-rounder. Considering the run on quarterbacks, and Denver’s lack of a second-round pick, you can at least understand why Sean Payton wouldn’t want to wait any longer to get his QB (who, c’mon, is no Patrick Mahomes).
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Any realistic chance of the Raiders drafting a QB in the first round ended when Nix went off the board. Vegas had bigger needs than tight end, but Bowers is basically a larger wide receiver anyway — and probably the best player available at this point.
14. New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
There was a near-consensus that the Saints would draft an offensive tackle, but only a couple mock drafts projected Fuaga as the pick. It’s unclear where he’ll play just yet — Fuaga was a RT in college and could be a guard in the NFL — but the Saints certainly need the OL depth.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 1/16 (one mocked Latu to the Bears at No. 15 after a trade)
A defensive player, at long last! The Colts were expected to bolster their defense in the first round. I thought they might target a cornerback, but they could also use the pass-rushing prowess that Latu brings to the table.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Correct mock drafts: 1/16
The Seahawks were another team looking for defensive reinforcements, though Murphy was already gone in a lot of mock drafts by this pick. When he was available in the real draft, I doubt Mike Macdonald hesitated for a second about selecting the guy who has drawn comparisons to Aaron Donald.
17. Minnesota Vikings (trade up): Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Now it’s a defensive party! Similar to Murphy, Turner was widely expected to be taken earlier than this pick. When he was still on the board, the Vikings made another trade, leaping the Rams to lock up who some believe is the top edge prospect in this draft class.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Correct mock drafts: 3/16
So far, the Bengals have ignored trade requests from receiver Tee Higgins and pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. They could have tried to fortify either position in the first round, but they took my advice and opted for Mims, a tackle with a high ceiling who can develop into Joe Burrow’s best protector.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
I originally wanted the Rams to draft an edge defender in the first round, but Peter Schrager was so adamant that Sean McVay would use his first ever first-round selection on an offensive player that I believed him. Not everyone else did, though, and sure enough, the Rams took care of one of their main priorities right away.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Here’s another example of the mock drafts correctly predicting the position but not the player. In a majority of them, Fautanu had already been drafted by pick No. 20. That wasn’t the case in the real world, and the Steelers ended up with perhaps the most versatile lineman in this class.
21. Miami Dolphins: Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
The Dolphins were a wild card of sorts in this draft. No one could agree on which prospect they’d add and whether he’d be an offensive or defensive player. Chop Robinson wasn’t a name I remember ever seeing linked to Miami, but that doesn’t mean this was a bad pick, either. As a rookie, Robinson can learn behind Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, and Shaq Barrett, and rotate in when needed.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 2/16 (two guessed that the Eagles would trade into the teens for Mitchell)
The Eagles stayed put and still came away with arguably this year’s top cornerback, which also happened to be their biggest hole? Howie Roseman’s done it again!
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (trade down): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 1/16 (Christian projected Thomas Jr. to the Jaguars at No. 17)
Ten picks after Bowers, we’re finally back to offensive skill players again. The Jags lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, but they secured the younger, faster, and cheaper Thomas in the first round, even after trading down. While Thomas might be a little raw still, he can make his presence felt immediately in Jacksonville.
24. Detroit Lions (trade up): Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
The Lions probably didn’t think that Arnold would still be on the board here, and he almost certainly wouldn’t have been if they had stayed at No. 29. By jumping up five spots, they checked off their most pressing need and landed the No. 2 rated cornerback — No. 1, per a couple of experts — in this class.
25. Green Bay Packers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
The streak is over! For the first time since 2011, the Packers used a first-round pick on a much-needed offensive lineman. I guess they just like Jordan Love more than they did Aaron Rodgers. (Don’t we all?)
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Graham Barton, C, Duke
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
I thought the Buccaneers would select an edge rusher in the first round, and maybe they would have if the top four players at the position weren’t already gone. Whether they pivoted or not, the Bucs managed to address a major need with Barton, who will likely play center in the NFL.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri
Correct mock drafts: 3/16
Last week, I had singled out cornerback as a position for the Cardinals to zero in on at the end of the first round. They could use as much help as they can get on defense, though, so it’s not a huge surprise that they decided to go after a pass rusher instead.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (trade up): Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 2/16 (two predicted the Chiefs would get Worthy at No. 32)
I don’t know why the Bills would simply let the Chiefs walk away with the fastest player in this draft, but that’s what happened after they swapped picks. You fools!
29. Dallas Cowboys (trade down): Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 5/16 (Guyton was a somewhat popular pick for the Cowboys at No. 24)
Guyton isn’t a finished product, and it remains to be seen if he can be a starting left tackle in the NFL. At right tackle, he did protect lefty Dillon Gabriel’s blind side in college, though. The athletic Guyton will get the opportunity to do the same for Dak Prescott, and if he’s ready, then Tyler Smith can stay at left guard.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Correct mock drafts: 2/16
With most of the Round 1-worthy linemen selected, the Ravens tackled their No. 1 defensive need on the first night of the draft. Wiggins is a very Ravens-type pick, too (a compliment).
31. San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
It had been a minute since I had seen Pearsall in the first round of any mock drafts. Some experts really like him, and based on C.J. Stroud’s reaction, Pearsall wouldn’t have been around the next time the Niners are on the clock late in the second round. This also reignites the possibility of the 49ers trading Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk on Day 2, especially after the Bills moved out of the first round instead of drafting a receiver.
32. Carolina Panthers (trade up): Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
Correct mock drafts: 0/16
Partially correct mock drafts: 3/16 (three draft writers expected the Chiefs to get Legette with the final pick in the first round)
On the one hand, it’s a relief to see the Panthers actively trying to help Bryce Young. On the other hand, Legette is a bit of an unknown. Although he only had one productive year in college, the hope is that he’ll explode in the NFL a la DK Metcalf, another strong, big-bodied receiver — and one who previously worked with Dave Canales, now the head coach in Carolina. To be honest, that has more of a chance of coming true if team owner David Tepper *didn’t* make the call to draft him.
The 16 mock drafts I tracked this year: Charles McDonald and Nate Tice (Yahoo), Charles Davis (NFL), Bucky Brooks (NFL), Daniel Jeremiah (NFL), Christian D’Andrea (FTW), Joel Klatt (Fox Sports), Dane Brugler (The Athletic), Mel Kiper (ESPN), Matt Miller (ESPN), Field Yates (ESPN), Trevor Sikkema (PFF), Albert Breer (SI), Mike Florio (PFT), Chris Trapasso (CBS), Danny Kelly (The Ringer), and Josh Norris (Underdog Fantasy).