Revisiting old predictions about the 2023 NFL season

No surprise, but I got a lot wrong (and also a couple things right).

This week is a breather of sorts in the NFL. Sure, the coaching cycle just wrapped up, the Pro Bowl festivities are going on this weekend, and we’re familiarizing ourselves with the draft prospects who have been standouts in the East-West Shrine Bowl and during the Senior Bowl practices.

But compared to the past five months, it’s been a fairly low-key week around the league. Well, at least until Monday comes and the next seven days will be all Super Bowl everything. 

I figured now, before we turn our attention to the big game, would be the perfect time to revisit the predictions I made from before the season, as well as the ones I made in Week 10. 

I didn’t get all that many right, nor did I expect to because it’s incredibly difficult to foresee what the NFL has in store for us. Yet, I wasn’t too far off base with any of my guesses, either. Let’s take a look back at what I thought was coming vs. what really happened.

Award winners

The NFL Honors show, when the league presents its regular season awards, is set for next Thursday, a few nights before the Super Bowl. Several of the awards are up for grabs, while there is a clear favorite for others. 

So I don’t know exactly how my predictions will pan out, but I at least have a good idea. Almost everyone I picked is a finalist and a couple have already taken home the Pro Football Writers of America version of the awards. 

My preseason prediction for MVP: Jalen Hurts

Who it probably will be: Lamar Jackson

Hurts was right in the MVP mix in early December, but he fell out of the race by the end of the month after both his performance, and the Eagles’ as a whole, declined. At the same time, Jackson went on a tear. In his final six games of the regular season, he threw 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions, posted a 109.8 passer rating, ran for 340 yards, and led the Ravens to six wins and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

My preseason prediction for Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey

Who it probably will be: Christian McCaffrey

Tyreek Hill had been McCaffrey’s closest competition all season, but the Dolphins’ speedy receiver was banged up throughout December, which lessened his impact. McCaffrey stayed healthy again this year and continued to shine in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459), touches (339), all-purpose yards (2,023), and rushing + receiving touchdowns (21), despite sitting out the final week to rest up for the playoffs. 

My preseason prediction for Defensive Player of the Year: Micah Parsons

Who it probably will be: Myles Garrett?

Parsons has the second-best DPOY odds behind Garrett and made a strong case for the award this season. In fact, he was the favorite until Garrett, who was the backbone of one of the NFL’s top defenses, overtook him late. I don’t think we can count out T.J. Watt, either. He was the league leader in sacks (19), though he wasn’t double-teamed as often as Garrett or Parsons. In the end, I think I will be right that someone will earn his first Defensive Player of the Year Award, but it’ll be Garrett, not Parsons. 

My preseason prediction for Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson

Who it probably will be: C.J. Stroud

Robinson put together a promising rookie campaign, even in Arthur Smith’s frustrating offense, and is a finalist for this award. Still, this turned out to be an awesome year for offensive rookies — Stroud and Puka Nacua most of all. Nacua broke a couple of longstanding first-year receiving records, but Stroud is the one who plays the most important position on the field. He solidified himself as the Texans’ franchise quarterback in about, oh, Week 3, and helped the once-floundering franchise secure the AFC South title and a spot in the playoffs.

My preseason prediction for Defensive Rookie of the Year: Will Anderson Jr.

Who it probably will be: Anderson? Jalen Carter?

Carter, who got off to a scorching start to the year with the Eagles, remains the betting favorite. However, Anderson is right behind him and has already racked up the PFWA’s award for top defensive rookie. Unlike Carter, Anderson took a little time to get settled into his pass-rushing role, but once he did, Anderson was a force for the Texans. He set a rookie franchise record with seven sacks, six of which came in November and December.

My preseason prediction for Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin

Who it probably will be: Damar Hamlin

Hamlin isn’t an automatic shoo-in for this award anymore, all thanks to Joe Flacco. In November, the then-38-year-old got off the couch and lifted the Browns to a 4-1 record and a playoff berth. But, as Flacco himself said, he simply came back from being old. Hamlin came back from a near-death experience. It took a lot of work, emotionally and physically, for Hamlin to return to the field, and his story — and his advocacy for CPR education — should continue to be celebrated (but not exploited; looking at you, NFL).

My preseason prediction for Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell

Who it probably will be: Kevin Stefanski? DeMeco Ryans?

The Coach of the Year Award is often handed out to the guy whose team most exceeded expectations. Campbell guided the Detroit Lions to their first division title in 30 years (and later, their first playoff win in 32 years), which was quite an impressive feat. But that’s what the Lions were supposed to do this year. The Texans, with a rookie head coach and rookie quarterback, weren’t supposed to win the AFC South this year. They did under Ryans. And no team had ever made the playoffs while starting five different quarterbacks. That is, until Stefanski’s Browns did so this year.

For what it’s worth, Stefanski is a slight favorite, but Ryans, like his player Will Anderson, might have momentum on his side.

Stats leaders

I did not nail any of these predictions. In fact, I might have cursed the players I chose — all of them ended up getting hurt this season (but only one was a major injury).

My preseason prediction for passing yards leader: Trevor Lawrence

Who it actually was: Tua Tagovailoa (4,624 yards)

I, like many others, expected Lawrence and the Jaguars to pick up where they left off last season. Instead, they lacked consistency for much of the season and came up just shy of a return to the playoffs. Lawrence dealt with a few ailments in December, after which the Jags went 1-5 to end the season. Nevertheless, he only missed one start and finished 10th in the league in passing yards with 4,016.

My preseason prediction for receiving yards leader: Ja’Marr Chase

Who it actually was: Tyreek Hill (1,799 yards)

This season wasn’t exactly smooth sailing for the Bengals either. Like the Jaguars, Cincinnati started the year off slowly, got on a bit of a roll in the middle of the season, and couldn’t do quite enough to sneak into the postseason. 

Chase’s numbers were hampered by injuries to himself and to his quarterback, Joe Burrow. Though Chase only missed one start, Burrow’s season ended after Week 10. Chase still led the Bengals in receiving (by a lot) with 100 receptions and 1,216 yards, both of which ranked 12th among NFL WRs in 2023.

My preseason prediction for rushing yards leader: Nick Chubb

Who it actually was: Christian McCaffrey (1,459)

You know, I was feeling pretty good about my prediction at the start of the season. In Week 1, Chubb ran for 106 yards against the Bengals. In Week 2, he already had 64 yards on the ground against the Steelers in the second quarter. Unfortunately, that’s when he suffered a brutal ACL injury — which has since required two surgeries — and just like that, his season was over. I’m sorry, Nick!

Super Bowl matchup

Another swing and a miss here, though at least both teams made it to the postseason.  As I noted in my preseason newsletter, most Super Bowls feature at least one team that did not win a playoff game the year before. That’s not the case this year.

My preseason prediction: Eagles over Dolphins

Who it actually was: Chiefs vs. 49ers

By the start of December, my Super Bowl pick was looking great. The Eagles were sitting atop the NFC with a 10-1 record and had just come back from a thrilling overtime win over the Bills. The Dolphins were 8-3, and while they had yet to beat a team with a winning record, they were still right in the thick of the AFC No. 1 seed race. 

By the start of January, I knew both teams were doomed for short playoff stints. Philly completely imploded and Nick Sirianni was nearly replaced by Bill Belichick a few weeks ago (and could be next year, who knows). Miami limped into the postseason with mounting injuries and an offense that failed to show up against top competition. 

So, we are left with a Super Bowl matchup that I would have never predicted — but only because it was way too obvious.

Midseason(ish) predictions

In mid-November, I tried to envision how the season would play out for a handful of teams. Similar to my preseason predictions, there was some accuracy mixed in with some off-the-mark forecasting.

Prediction No. 1: The Ravens will win the AFC North, but the Chiefs will secure the No. 1 seed 

What actually happened: The Ravens did win the AFC North … and secured the No. 1 seed

I wrote that prediction after Baltimore fell to Cleveland. That also happened to be the Ravens’ last regular season loss with their starters. They locked up the No. 1 seed and the AFC North following their Week 17 win over the Dolphins. Meanwhile, Kansas City went 4-4 the rest of the way and earned the No. 3 seed. Not that it really mattered, since the Chiefs went on to clinch the AFC Championship last week in Baltimore.

Prediction No. 2: The Texans will make the playoffs

What actually happened: The Texans DID make the playoffs

I was banking on the Texans as a wild card team, but I still thought they had an outside shot to be AFC South champs. That’s what unfolded when they went to Indianapolis in Week 18 and came away with the division-deciding W. Houston even won its first-round playoff game before bowing out to the Ravens.

Prediction No. 3: The Lions will be the first team to clinch their division

What actually happened: The Lions were the second team to clinch their division, after the 49ers

The 49ers claimed the NFC West in Week 15 with a win over the Cardinals. The Lions would follow suit the next week by beating the Vikings, Detroit’s first division championship since before the NFC North was called the NFC North. As it were, the Lions and 49ers would go on to meet in the NFC Championship Game, where the visitors blew it.

Prediction No. 4: The NFC South champ will finish with a losing record (again)

What actually happened: The NFC South champ finished with a 9-8 record

The NFC South came down to the final week of the season, when the 8-8 Bucs, 8-8 Saints, and 7-9 Falcons were all still alive. If the Falcons had prevailed over the Saints, and the Bucs had lost to the lowly Panthers, then my prediction would have been right. Alas, Tampa won in Carolina and took the division crown in the process.

The Saints also topped the Falcons, meaning two NFC South teams finished the year with a winning record. Now that’s something I certainly didn’t see coming!