NFL Conference Championships: Doom and gloom

Well, that was a depressing weekend (unless you're a fan of one of the winning teams, that is).

I don’t have all that many rooting interests in the NFL, which has made it easier for me to stay neutral over the years. But in general, I have a soft spot for teams and players who have never won, or even competed for, a championship finally getting over the hurdle. 

As such, the potential Super Bowl matchup that I was least excited about was Chiefs-49ers … the one that’s happening, unfortunately. The NFL, more than any other American professional sports league, is supposed to be a champion of parity, but it hasn’t always been that way. The Patriots or Chiefs have represented the AFC in eight of the last 10 Super Bowls, including the one in two weeks. Speaking of the Patriots, they’re the only franchise that has more Super Bowl appearances than the 49ers, who are tied with the Steelers, Cowboys, and Broncos with eight trips apiece. 

And so, I’ll fully admit that I’m bummed we’re getting a retread of a Super Bowl from only four years ago¹. Between now and Feb. 11, I will do my best to drum up some enthusiasm for the big game. These are two great teams, the 49ers have a stable of fun playmakers, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, blah blah blah.

I will also do my best to avoid reading about — and, I promise you, avoid writing about — anything involving the “is Brock Purdy just a game manager?” and “are the cameras showing Taylor Swift too much?” discourse. Here’s my contribution before I shut up about them: everyone who weighs in on either topic is extremely annoying. Just move on so the rest of us can live in peace!

At the moment, however, I’m still in my feelings and don’t particularly want to discuss the two winners. I don’t think the NFL is rigged in their favor, and I believe they fairly earned their spot in the Super Bowl. Yet it also feels like they’ve been touched by the football gods and all we could do was sit back and watch in horror on Sunday as they implausibly wriggled out of every possible jam.

Of course, that’s not quite what happened. The Ravens and Lions simply crapped the bed, each in different ways.

The Ravens’ dream season turns into a major disappointment

At the worst possible time, the Ravens — the most complete team all season — turned into the Bills². Just as the Bills were their own worst enemy against the Chiefs in Buffalo last week, the Ravens couldn’t get out of their own way in Baltimore, which was hosting its first AFC Championship Game in 53 years. 

You can make one, maybe two mistakes against Kansas City in the playoffs and survive. But an avalanche of errors, from both the offense and defense, was the Ravens’ undoing. Here’s how I would rank them in importance, from least to most costly:

3. Stupid penalties

The Ravens were called for a decent number of penalties this season, but that was not the case in the Divisional Round, when they were flagged just three times for 15 yards. Alas, they couldn’t replicate that kind of clean game against the Chiefs. 

Maybe the pressure got to them. Maybe they couldn’t maintain their cool, while the more seasoned Chiefs could. Or maybe they were merely unlucky to draw the NFL ref who favors the road team more than any other official. 

Whatever the reason, the Ravens kept hurting themselves with unnecessary penalties. 

On the Chiefs’ final drive before halftime, they started at their own 11-yard line while leading 17-10. By the time they had snapped the ball three times, the Ravens had already spotted them a free 30 yards. First, Kyle Van Noy shoved Travis Kelce, who was getting into it with Roquan Smith. Only the veteran Van Noy was flagged, leaving Kelce to celebrate the 15-yard gift. Then, Travis Jones inadvertently clotheslined Mahomes, which turned what would have been a third down into another first down. 

By the end of the drive, KC had tacked on a field goal. That gave Baltimore its biggest deficit (10 points) of the season with Jackson at quarterback. 

Late in the third quarter, with the score remaining at 17-7, the Ravens finally got a massive play they had been waiting for: Jackson hit Zay Flowers for a 54-yard gain, which should have set the offense up inside the red zone. Instead, the officials rang up Flowers for taunting L'Jarius Sneed, which pushed the Ravens back 15 yards. This was still a good opportunity for Baltimore to score, but another Flowers mistake — a fumble forced by a probably extra-motivated Sneed — a few plays later cost them the chance. But more on that later.

In the fourth quarter, Jadeveon Clowney was flagged for roughing the passer. Although the Chiefs did not score on that possession, the penalty helped extend the drive and bleed valuable minutes off the clock.

Baltimore was whistled eight times, losing 95 yards in the process. The defense was at fault for six of those. I didn’t find any of the calls, or missed calls, to be particularly egregious. Yet almost all of them, with a little more discipline, were avoidable.

2. Getting away from their identity 

Baltimore’s defense frustrated me a bit in the first half. I don’t blame the Ravens for not being able to do much about a “Kelce making an incredible grab with a defender draped over him” situation, but Mahomes also shouldn’t have had so much time to run around before making that throw. The pass rush wasn’t getting much pressure on Mahomes at all, despite him being without All-Pro guard Joe Thuney. The Ravens allowed 17 points, the second-most they surrendered in a first half all season, and it easily could have been worse. 

The defense at least made adjustments at halftime and looked more like itself in the second half. It sacked Mahomes twice, forced three three-and-outs, and did not let Kansas City score again.

On the other hand, Baltimore’s offense looked unrecognizable all game. Last week, OC Todd Monken’s adjustments propelled the Ravens to a 24-point second half and win over the Texans. This week, they managed a paltry three points after halftime.

Curiously, Baltimore abandoned the run game, which was tops in the NFL this year in attempts, yards, and DVOA, as well as third in yards per carry average. KC’s otherwise excellent defense struggled against the run too, ranking No. 18 in rushing yards allowed, No. 24 in yards per carry, and No. 17 in DVOA. And still, the Ravens only ran the ball 16 times for 81 yards, with running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill getting a measly six carries. 

It’s not like the passing game was working out well, either. The Chiefs relentlessly pressured Jackson. It was similar to what the Texans did a week ago, but KC’s much better secondary was able to lock up Jackson’s receivers and he often didn’t have anywhere to throw the ball. One cool exception: that time when he passed it to himself. 

Jackson led the team with 54 rushing yards, but he also seemed indecisive about when to take off and run (undoubtedly, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo deserves his share of credit for that). That said, the Ravens stubbornly sticking to the pass — and not even using the run to set up the pass — and failing to make necessary tweaks was not Jackson’s fault. That’s on the coaches.

1. Untimely turnovers

During the regular season, the Ravens were tied with the Giants for the best turnover margin in the NFL (+12). Both had forced a league-high 31 turnovers and had given the ball away 19 times. The Chiefs ranked near the bottom in all three categories, totaling 28 giveaways and 17 takeaways for a -11 turnover margin. 

In the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens coughed the ball up on three occasions, while the Chiefs didn’t at all. Baltimore had lost the turnover battle a few times this year, but never as badly as that -3 turnover margin on Sunday.

Even worse for the Ravens is when they committed those turnovers. Jackson fumbled once in the first half on a strip-sack, which didn’t end up costing Baltimore (but the play may have gotten into Jackson’s head). The second two, which occurred in the fourth quarter, mattered much more. 

Let’s circle back to Flowers’ fumble, which came when he tried to extend the ball and right before he crossed the plane. That negated what would have been a touchdown and could have gotten the Ravens to within three points at the start of the final period. The missed opportunity cut Baltimore’s win probability in half.

(Afterward, Flowers slammed his hands into the Ravens’ bench and cut himself, a metaphor that’s a little too on the nose, if you ask me.)

The score was still 17-7 when they got the ball back four minutes later. The offense put together a sustained drive for the first time since the first quarter and had marched to Kansas City’s 25-yard line. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Jackson threw an ill-advised pass into triple coverage as he tried to target Isaiah Likely for only the third time all afternoon. It was picked off.

In a short and crucial period, the Chiefs had come up with two takeaways inside their own 25-yard. Before that, they had done so only three times all season.

Even though the Ravens made a field goal on their next (also their last) drive, that interception was when the game was effectively over. 

As Patrick Queen later told reporters, “When they needed critical plays, they made critical plays. They executed, we didn’t. You can’t do that in the playoffs. It comes down to every single play.” 

That’s where the Chiefs’ experience, and ability to maintain their composure, showed up most of all. A similar situation played out in the NFC Championship Game. 

The Lions’ collapse is a new chapter in their painful history

If the Ravens were channeling the Bills this weekend, the Lions were doing their best impression of the Falcons. I’m not even referring to the infamous 28-3 blown lead in the Super Bowl, which Kyle Shanahan was also present for. Instead, I’m talking about the NFC title game from 11 years ago. The Falcons jumped out to a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter, but the 49ers kept chipping away and eventually won 28-24. It was the largest comeback win in NFC Championship history. 

Well, it had been. Now it’s tied with this year’s edition, when the Lions squandered a 17-point halftime lead — the biggest halftime collapse in any Conference Championship Round. The way it happened was both believable and unbelievable: Detroit failed to execute and was also plagued with terrible luck. 

And just like I did with the Ravens above, I will list their most glaring second-half mistakes in reverse order, from bad to worse:

6. Wasting Jack Fox’s glorious 74-yard punt

After the 49ers had rallied to tie the game at 24-24, the Lions went three-and-out. The vibes were awful, and all they needed at the moment was ONE thing to go right. Out came Jack Fox to deliver a gorgeous punt that should have pinned the 49ers inside the 5-yard line.

However, Chase Lucas tried to down it at the 1-yard line and ended up touching the ball while he was standing in the end zone. The Niners then received the ball at the 20-yard line and seven (geez) minutes later, they took their first lead of the night on a field goal. 

5. Dan Campbell’s game management

Your mileage may vary on whether you believe Dan Campbell should have gone for it twice on fourth down in the second half. I think there are valid criticisms to his aggressiveness, particularly when he bypassed a potential game-tying field goal halfway through the fourth quarter. Rather than the Lions gaining back a modicum of momentum, they tried to convert on fourth-and-3 and didn’t get it thanks to an off-target Jared Goff throw, which then turned into another 49ers touchdown drive. 

On the other hand, that’s been Campbell’s M.O. his entire tenure. It got the Lions this far, so why change his approach now? Besides, it’s easy to question his decisions after the plays didn’t work. 

For his part, Campbell said he didn’t regret going for it on either fourth down, especially because he knew that Shanahan was trying to run as much time off the clock as possible. 

I understand Campbell’s point, and I don’t have an issue with him staying true to himself. The playcalls themselves were not my favorite — why not try running it at least once? — and the Lions couldn’t execute them properly. 

In my opinion, Campbell should catch the most flack for how he managed Detroit’s final possession. The Lions had the ball at midfield at the two-minute warning and then found themselves at San Francisco’s 1-yard line with 1:10 left on the clock. On third-and-goal, THIS is when they decided to run it?!

The problem is not with the run, or that it didn’t work, but with the situation. The Lions had to burn their first timeout when David Montgomery was stuffed, leaving them with only two timeouts and less than a minute left to play. As a result, the Lions would have to recover the onside kick (unlikely) because the 49ers could just kneel out the clock if they got the ball back.

After Detroit scored on fourth down, that’s exactly what happened.

4. Letting Purdy beat you with his legs

Purdy is a better runner than you might expect. He gained 144 yards on the ground this year and rushed for two touchdowns. But it’s not like he’s even as effective with his legs as other sneaky-mobile quarterbacks like Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Usually, anyway. He was in the second half against the Lions, though. 

Purdy scrambled three times for 52 yards, all for first down, and the 49ers scored on each drive. He also bought time with his legs until he found open receivers, who were ready to make toe-tapping catches. 

Not counting his two kneel downs, Purdy averaged 17.3 yards per carry, against a defense that ranked third in the NFL in yards per rush (3.7) and first in rushing DVOA. That’s embarrassing, Lions!

3. So many drops

This season, Goff saw 6.1 percent of his passes dropped, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (I will remind you that Purdy had, by far, the lowest rate at 2.1 percent). Josh Reynolds was credited with four drops this season for a 6.3 drop percentage — or, right between Amon-Ra St. Brown (4.9%) and Jameson Williams (9.5%).

But Sunday was absolutely brutal for Reynolds. He had one catch for 25 yards and two horrible drops. The first came on the Lions’ first fourth-down try of the second half, right before the Niners scored to get to within seven. The second came on third down right before Fox’s wasted punt when the score was tied. Both were potential game-changers. 

Reynolds wasn’t alone, though. Prior to Reynolds’ third-down drop, Sam LaPorta had the ball knocked out of his hands on what would have been a first down. Later, Williams had a would-be touchdown sail between his fingers on the same fourth-quarter drive that Campbell decided not to attempt the tying field goal. 

2. A rare Jahmyr Gibbs fumble

Gibbs was one of the most electric rookies this year, and he was also one of the least turnover-prone. In 182 carries during the regular season, he lost just one fumble. 

Unluckily for him, his second came at a pivotal point in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers were on the upswing after stopping the Lions on fourth down and then scoring on a magical drive (more on that next) to make it 24-17. Detroit needed to put a positive drive together to, at worst, stop the bleeding and, at best, add to its lead. 

You probably know what happened, though. On the first snap, a janky exchange led to Gibbs’ second career lost fumble. Soon after, the 49ers tied it up. That play more than any other accounted for the most expected points lost for the Lions. 

1. An almost-interception becomes a miracle catch

Right after the Lions’ first failed fourth down, they had a chance to snatch the momentum right back. Purdy, who had already thrown an interception in the first half, looked like he had just thrown his second. He tried to connect with Brandon Aiyuk on a 51-yard bomb, but cornerback Kindle Vildor had a bead on the ball and was in the right position to haul in the pick. 

But, as the cliche goes, there’s a reason he plays defense. The football hit Vildor’s face mask and thanks to a combination of talent, coordination, and amazing luck, Aiyuk caught the ball off the ricochet. If you had told me that the 49ers were living out a real-life Angels in the Outfield scenario, I would have believed you. 

Three plays later, Aiyuk caught a touchdown pass that cut the Lions’ lead down to 24-17. The coulda, woulda, shoulda interception might not have been the costliest play of the night, but I think it was the moment when we all knew what was coming next: The 49ers would complete the comeback and send the Lions back home with their 12th straight postseason road loss.

Hopefully, this is just the beginning for the Lions, but as Campbell honestly told his players, “This might have been our only shot.” You never know what the future holds, so you have to grab the opportunity — or the fourth-down pass, or the touchdown, or the interception — when you have the chance.

1. I don’t think anyone wants to relive early 2020 ever again!

2. To be fair, this is not just a Bills thing. The Ravens suffered plenty of self-inflicted wounds in their first three losses of the season, but those all happened months ago.