NFL Conference Championships: Lessons on how to make a Super Bowl
Do what the Bengals and Rams did: Get a franchise QB. Do not do what the Chiefs and 49ers did: Squander your opportunities.
In two weeks from now, either Matthew Stafford or the Bengals will have just won a Super Bowl. That’s nuts, but it’s an appropriate ending for an unpredictable NFL season that has been all over the place.
Even if Sunday’s championship games lacked the same fireworks as last weekend’s slate, they were still highly entertaining. Both victors came back from double-digit deficits to win by three points, capping off their madcap journey to Super Bowl 56.
Maybe it’s because Ben Roethlisberger just retired, and Tom Brady might have too. Or maybe I’m simply basking in the euphoria from what was the most enjoyable postseason in recent memory (no, not that Euphoria, which I’ve decided, like TikTok, belongs to the younger generation and I do not need to participate). But it feels like we just ushered in a new era of the NFL.
All those “fun” facts about how X of the last Super Bowls have featured Brady, Roethlisberger, or a Manning? No more! It’s possible we’ll just replace those names with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen, or it could even go a different route, like “X of the last Super Bowls have included coaches from the Sean McVay tree.” Whatever ends up happening, today’s NFL appears to be in good — and new — hands.
The Rams and Bengals took different overall approaches to reach the big game. The Bengals’ roster is young and filled with homegrown talent, with a few key free agent signings mixed in. The Rams haven’t had a draft high pick in, like, 45 years and built most of their roster through trades and free agency.
What they did on Sunday, however, was remarkably similar and provided a blueprint to future teams on how to make a Super Bowl. Let’s go over the four main lessons from Conference Championship Weekend.
1. It doesn’t matter how, just get a franchise quarterback
This is not brand new information; it’s really the maxim of the entire NFL and has been for years. Still, I’m not sure it’s ever been more clear just how much an elite quarterback can transform your team.
Two years ago, the Bengals finished the season a league-worst 2-14. If they had won just one more game, they likely wouldn’t have been in position to draft Joe Burrow with the No. 1 pick. Cincinnati wasn’t trying to tank for Burrow (“Blow for Joe”? nah, too dirty-sounding), but it was the most fortunate outcome after suffering through a miserable season.
And now the Bengals are one of the fastest turnaround stories in NFL history. Burrow hasn’t done it alone, of course. The front office made other savvy draft picks the last two years (Tee Higgins, Logan Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase, Evan McPherson) and beefed up the defense via free agency (D.J. Reader, Vonn Bell, Trey Hendrickson). But Burrow has been the biggest piece of this restoration projection, thanks to his arm, sometimes his legs, his leadership, composure, and how he embraces his franchise. I mean, who else would bless us with such a delightfully dorky Ickey Shuffle on national TV?
The Rams have never been bad during the Sean McVay era. They’ve had a winning record in all five of his seasons, have made the playoffs in four, and appeared in the Super Bowl three years ago ... when they scored just three points.
Jared Goff wasn’t the only reason the Rams lost Super Bowl 53, but his uninspiring play was a theme throughout their playoff trips. In six postseason games, Goff completed 57.4 percent of his passes for 1,300 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 79.9 passer rating. McVay knew Goff’s limitations were going to get in the way of the big prize, so the Rams traded him for another former No. 1 pick, Matthew Stafford, a reliably good quarterback who was unlucky enough to be drafted by the Lions.
In his three playoff appearances for LA so far, Stafford has completed 72 percent of his passes for 905 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and a 115.6 passer rating, while leading two game-winning drives. McVay upgraded at the most important position, and it’s paying off exactly as he intended.
Kyle Shanahan also made a major move to give the 49ers a franchise quarterback when he traded up to draft Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick. However, Shanahan was adamant Jimmy Garoppolo would remain the starter in 2021, and he stuck to that.
If there were any doubts about who would start in 2022, that was erased with another lackluster Jimmy G performance on Sunday. In what was likely his last game as a 49er, Garoppolo’s game typified his entire career in San Francisco: He managed the offense well enough to build a lead, and then when the pressure came, he was helpless:
Garoppolo was good enough in Shanahan’s system to win games, but he wasn’t good enough to bring the Niners a championship. Next year, we’ll see if Lance can change things for the better.
2. Don’t let any opportunities slip through your fingers
In one of her final Jeopardy! appearances, 40-day winner Amy Schneider told Ken Jennings, during the “meet the contestants” segment, that she had one ritual before each game. In her head, she’d recite part of Eminem’s “Lose Yourself” to remind herself that this was a once-in-a-lifetime experience and to focus just on Jeopardy! and nothing else while the game was being played.
It apparently worked, since she became the winningest woman in Jeopardy! history. And though athletes using “Lose Yourself” lyrics to pump themselves up might seem cliched — they’ve been doing it for almost 20 years now! — the message is still worthwhile (no, not the “mom's spaghetti” part).
Because the truth is we never know if a team will get another chance at a conference or NFL championship. The Bills were an AFC favorite this year and didn’t make it out of the Divisional Round. The Chiefs have only won one Super Bowl in the Mahomes era so far. The Packers have only won one Super Bowl in the much longer Aaron Rodgers era. So don’t waste your opportunity when it presents itself.
This far into the postseason, one play can change the entire game — or could have, if a player had made it.
Eli Apple is lucky to have Vonn Bell as a teammate, because when Apple dropped what could’ve been a game-winning pick-six, the dread kicked in. It felt inevitable that Mahomes would pull off a big play on third down, giving their OT drive new life. Instead, when Mahomes dropped back and let it fly, Bell was there to snag the interception:
(While the Bengals stopped Mahomes this week when the Bills couldn’t last week, this doesn’t change the fact that the NFL’s OT rules still SUCK.)
Unfortunately for Jaquiski Tartt, no one was there to atone for his mistake. Tartt butterfingered a gimme interception when the 49ers held a three-point lead in the fourth quarter:
That could’ve been Stafford’s massive brain fart moment … if Tartt had just held on. Eight plays later, the game was tied.
Afterward, Tartt pointed the finger squarely at himself:
Although his woulda, coulda, shoulda pick was a pivotal moment, I hope Tartt doesn’t beat himself up too much over it. There’s enough blame on the 49ers to go around (starting with his own coach, but more on that later).
3. Don’t get greedy …
The Chiefs were rolling in the first half of the AFC title game. The offense that had scored on its final four possessions last week had put up touchdowns on its first three drives against the Bengals — and was on the verge of adding more points right before halftime.
With five seconds in the first half and facing second-and-goal from the 1-yard line, Mahomes had to either find an open man in the end zone or throw the ball away. He did neither and tossed it to Tyreek Hill, who was tackled before reaching the goal line as time expired:
In his postgame presser, Mahomes admitted that he got “greedy” on that play and should have put the Chiefs in position to kick a field goal. It certainly seemed like a big error at the time, but in hindsight, it was much more than that: It was the turning point in the game.
Mahomes and the offense were never the same after that. They scored a mere three points in the second half (again!) and got deep into Bengals territory just once.
4. … but don’t play it too safe either
Kyle Shanahan with a double-digit lead in the postseason — what could go wrong?
Well a lot, especially when he keeps insisting on punting in obvious go-for-it situations.
His most egregious decision came with 10 minutes remaining on fourth-and-2 at the LA 45-yard line. The Rams had scored on their previous possession, but the 49ers still led 17-14. On the previous down, Sean McVay made a bizarre challenge that wasted his final timeout.
Rather than make McVay pay for that, or try to extend the drive and burn some clock and maybe score and, idk, try to win the game, Shanahan punted the ball when the numbers recommended otherwise:
On the ensuing drive, the Rams tied things up and the narrative about Shanahan’s fourth-quarter game management added another chapter.
After, Shanahan, unlike Tartt, didn’t apologize or offer any kind of explanation:
Scared money don’t make money, Kyle. Or win championships. — SH
Christian’s Shit List
All the things I hated in the Conference Championships
1. Jimmy Garoppolo, whose inner monologue was drowned out by panic sirens
Pressure turns coal into diamonds. It turns Garoppolo into terminal stage Brett Favre.
The 49ers quarterback displayed the kind of boneheaded gunslinging that ended Favre’s career and convinced Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to trade three first-round picks to find a replacement in San Francisco. Every Handsome James rollout under pressure is a disaster, with multiple plays Sunday eerily reminiscent of the fourth-quarter interception that gave the Cowboys new life in the Wild Card Round.
Of course, that all paled in comparison to this play, which surely broke Jeff Garcia’s heart.
This throw, typically reserved for Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray (playoff games only), ended the Niners’ comeback hopes and sealed another perfect weekend of zero wins with my picks. All Jimmy G needed to do was be average to win this game. He just needed to hand the ball to Eli Mitchell and hit Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on crossing routes and let them run. And he did that, for a while! And then the Rams brought pressure and he was unable to see beyond his own impending doom.
That’s why Trey Lance is taking over next year.
2. Fred Warner, who did not need to do this
Here’s how Warner celebrated Matthew Stafford’s end zone interception in the first quarter.
Gross! Stafford wasn’t part of the play and the All-Pro linebacker blasted him in the helmet anyway. Now he’s not only looking at an unexpected departure from the playoffs, but a meaty fine from the NFL. At least he knows it was shitty.
3. Ben Skowronek, who was nearly a playoff legend
Oops.
4. Patrick Mahomes, who fell apart in the second half against the Bengals … again
Mahomes was brilliant in the first half. He threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns. But the one touchdown he didn’t get appeared to break him; his screen to Tyreek Hill with five seconds left was stopped at the 2-yard line and left Kansas City deep in the red zone without any points before halftime.
Those points proved costly, but Mahomes was a different man in the second half. The creativity that drove him to repair broken plays was gone. He lingered in the pocket and ran into trouble instead of out of it. In the first 20 minutes after halftime he was responsible for -1 net passing yard. He threw for 55 yards, zero touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions in the second half and overtime.
With the game on the line, he looked nothing like the quarterback who needed just 13 seconds to crush the Bills’ playoff hopes in the Divisional Round. This version of Patrick Mahomes looked like the kind of guy who gets mad about insurance rates. This guy was a straight-up goober:
Mahomes lost the magic that made him a king the week prior. He’ll be stuck at home instead of playing in his third straight Super Bowl as a result.
5. The Bengals’ blocking, which still sucks
Don’t let the fact Joe Burrow was only sacked once fool you; the Bengals got beat early and often despite having numbers up front against a Chiefs defense that rarely blitzed. Cincinnati got beat three-on-five, four-on-five, and five-on-six to hamstring Burrow’s deep passing game. And the one sack the team *did* give up was an embarrassment.
Now that unit has to face Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and a defense that had more sacks than all but two other teams this season. Good luck! — CD
Conference Championship results, in zero words
AFC: Bengals 27, Chiefs 24
NFC: Rams 20, 49ers 17
