NFL picks for a full-sized Week 8

There are no byes this week, for some reason.

We are back to a full 16-game slate this week, and I figured that makes this a good time to check in on the state of the season. But since we still have slightly more than half a season left to play, it’d be unwise to read too much into how things stand presently. 

Last year at this time, the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions — aka, the eventual AFC and NFC title game participants — all ranked near the top of the power rankings. Yet teams with the best records also included a few playoff squads that went through a second-half swoon (Eagles, Dolphins) and a couple others that missed the postseason entirely (Jaguars, Seahawks). Meanwhile, a handful of teams with losing records eventually turned their season around and made the playoffs (Texans, Bucs, Packers, Rams). 

In other words, we might know who several of the contenders are, but we’re also in for some surprises. 

We already got one on Thursday night, when the Rams beat the Vikings. But, I don’t forecast this being an upset-heavy weekend in the NFL. Here’s a look at the rest of the games, along with my picks in bold and the odds from DraftKings:

Titans at Lions (-11.5)

Ravens at Browns (+8.5)

Packers at Jaguars (+4)

Colts at Texans (-5)

Jets at Patriots (+7)

Eagles at Bengals (-3)

Falcons at Buccaneers (+2.5)

Cardinals at Dolphins (-4)

Bills at Seahawks (+3)

Saints at Chargers (-7)

Chiefs at Raiders (+9.5)

Panthers at Broncos (-10)

Bears at Commanders (+3)

Cowboys at 49ers (-4.5)

Giants at Steelers (-6)

Be sure to check out Christian’s Week 8 picks at FTW, too. 

Last year’s contenders that still look the part

So far, most of the teams that we thought would be good are, in fact, good.

Lions over Titans

Before the season started, I picked the Lions to make the Super Bowl. I’m not saying they’ll coast there, but right now, they’re the best team in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Titans are having a fire sale with their roster. 

Ravens over Browns

Before the season started, I picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl. I’m not sure they’re built to beat the Chiefs, but they’re certainly built to beat the Browns.

Packers over Jaguars

The Packers play in the toughest division in the NFL and might have to settle for a wild-card spot again. But as we saw last year, they can be dangerous in January. And this season, they’ve been dangerous against AFC South teams.

Bills over Seahawks

The Bills are probably the third-most likely team to emerge out of the AFC this season, after the Chiefs and Ravens. They don’t really have any signature wins … yet. A win in Seattle would qualify, even if DK Metcalf is for the Seahawks.

Chiefs over Raiders

The Raiders were actually the last team to beat the Chiefs. It happened on Christmas Day but seems like a lifetime ago.

Maybe a contender, maybe a pretender

These teams could either turn it on in the second half of the season or fall off a cliff. Could go either way!

Bengals over Eagles

Both of these teams are an enigma, with the potential to get hot if they can put it all together … which they haven’t. Although the Eagles have a win over an opponent with a pulse (the Packers, in Week 1), I’m going with the Bengals at home after they got a little positive injury news.

Falcons over Buccaneers

It seems like one of these two will win the NFC South, and I had planned to take the Bucs in a rematch. But then Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving all got hurt. 

Chargers over Saints

Both the Chargers and Saints have fallen off since their 2-0 starts, in no small part due to injuries. The Chargers are less injured than the Saints, though, and can get back above .500 — and into the early playoff mix — with a win.

Broncos over Panthers

Bryce Young gets a chance to start again after Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in a car crash. Those are unfortunate circumstances, even more so because he’s about to face the third-best defense in the league. The Broncos aren’t a great team, but they have the special teams and defense to potentially be in the postseason conversation.

Bears over Commanders

I still don’t know how real either team is or if they’re both paper tigers. I think the Bears are closer to being a threat than the Commanders, especially this week if Jayden Daniels doesn’t play.

Steelers over Giants

Russell Wilson’s Steelers looked legit in the second half against the Jets last Sunday night. I’m guessing they’ll still have some bumps this season, but I don’t expect those bumps to come against the Giants. 

The “just flip a coin” picks 

Vegas doesn’t think there are many, if any, 50/50 games week, but I disagree.

Texans over Colts

In Week 1, I predicted the first Texans-Colts matchup would be closer than expected but still picked the favored Houston, who won 29-27. I expect a similar result this time around. The Texans’ passing game has struggled without Nico Collins recently, and every single Colts game has been decided by six points or fewer. But I think Joe Mixon should be able to gash Indy’s poor run defense again.

Jets over Patriots

In no world should this be a coin-toss game, especially when the Jets crushed the Patriots just last month. However, the Jets have been so dysfunctional, and Drake Maye has been pretty decent since entering New England’s starting lineup. I’m still taking the Jets, though, in part because of Davante Adams’ speech to the team. 

Dolphins over Cardinals

Tua Tagovailoa’s return won’t fix the Dolphins. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game all season, even when he was in the lineup. Maybe he will boost them psychologically, though. Plus, the Cardinals haven’t had a winning streak in three seasons. 

49ers over Cowboys

Both teams have had rotten injury luck this season — for a minute there, the 49ers’ de facto WR1 was Ricky Pearsall, who just made his NFL debut this past weekend a couple months after he was shot. But assuming Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are good to go Sunday, I’ll side with the Niners, who have now won three straight over the Cowboys.