NFL picks for a sure-to-be-close Week 1

Football is a game of inches, as we were reminded in the season opener.

The NFL knows how to kick off a season, huh? Despite a 20-minute delay, the Chiefs and Ravens kept us on the edge of our seats all Thursday night, with the season opener coming down to not inches but millimeters.

Will the rest of Week 1 live up to that kind of excitement? Probably not, but I still have high hopes that the remaining slate will bring a good bit of drama, starting with the NFL’s first regular season game in South America. 

My Week 1 picks are in bold below. I also listed the odds, per DraftKings, as of Thursday night:

Packers “at” Eagles (-2)

Steelers at Falcons (-3.5)

Cardinals at Bills (-6.5)

Titans at Bears (-3.5)

Patriots at Bengals (-8.5)

Texans at Colts (+3)

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5)

Panthers at Saints (-4)

Vikings at Giants (+1.5)

Cowboys at Browns (-2.5)

Raiders at Chargers (-3)

Broncos at Seahawks (-6)

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5)

Rams at Lions (-4.5)

Jets at 49ers (-4.5)

As a reminder, Christian is still making his weekly picks at FTW if you want to check them out, too. 

The “just flip a coin” picks

I’m rarely surprised by any Week 1 outcome because there are always so many unknowns. Still, these are the most “toss-up” games of the bunch.

Packers over Eagles: The deciding factor for me was Eagles cornerback Darius Slay offending the entire country of Brazil. 

Falcons over Steelers: If this were late in the season rather than Week 1, I’d feel comfortable taking the Steelers. But with a lot of questions surrounding the offense, I’m not sure that new OC Arthur Smith can get revenge against his old team. 

Giants over Vikings: Sam Darnold returning to MetLife Stadium might be the most interesting storyline in this matchup, and it’s really not all that interesting. 

Cowboys over Browns: Ah, two teams that disappointed their fans in the playoffs and could very well do the same this year. When in doubt, side with the one with the better QB.

Chargers over Raiders: With the previous sentence in mind, I’m going with Justin Herbert, foot injury or not, over Gardner Minshew. 

Welcome to the NFL, rookie QBs

Just like last year, three first-year quarterbacks will start in Week 1. Last season, they went 0-3, but I’m predicting a (slightly) better result this year.

Bears over Titans: Caleb Williams landed in a more favorable spot than the other QBs in his draft class, and he has the good fortune to start with a relatively easy opponent. 

Seahawks over Broncos: Bo Nix’s two losses last year in college came against a team from Washington. Unfortunately for him, I believe that’s how his NFL career will begin too.

Buccaneers over Commanders: Jayden Daniels was impressive this preseason, and the Bucs lost a few key defensive players in the offseason. Still, it’s not easy facing a Todd Bowles defense in your first ever game, particularly when Bowles is EXCITED.

Could be closer than expected

Some will just be closer than the point spread, while others will be straight-up upsets. 

Bills over Cardinals: The Cardinals weren’t good last year, but they were pesky. I don’t think they’ll go down without a fight this year either.

Bengals over Patriots: Mind you, the Bengals are more than a touchdown favorite. So in this case, when I say “closer than expected,” I don’t anticipate it being a nail-biter.

Texans over Colts: The Texans are coming off a great season and offseason, but the Colts played them tough last year and split the series 1-1. This could be another close one.

Dolphins over Jaguars: We might be sleeping a little on the Jaguars this year, and I almost called the upset here. Ultimately, I decided not to pull the trigger because I want to see how the Jags perform before I declare them a comeback team. 

Panthers over Saints: I don’t know if I took the Panthers to win in any of my weekly picks last season. Even so, we’re due for at least one true upset in Week 1, and I have my doubts about the Saints’ “new” offense outside of Chris Olave. 

Lions over Rams: Sean McVay always has his team ready to go, and the Rams were not an easy out for the Lions when these two met in the playoffs. But have you seen Dan Campbell in those Applebee’s commercials? I’m not betting against a coach who can act that well. 

49ers over Jets: Assuming Aaron Rodgers plays more than four snaps on Monday, the Jets should be able to give the 49ers a game, especially because it’s the regular season and not the postseason (Rodgers’ record vs. SF is 6-3 in the former and 0-4 in the latter). But we still don’t know what the 40-year-old will look like, particularly against one of the NFL’s strongest defenses.