NFL picks for a confusing Week 5

Most of the teams in the league right now are in that gray "sometimes good, sometimes bad" area.

After their crushing collapse against the Broncos in Week 4, the Bears had two options. They could have built off their explosive first half while moving on from the disastrous second half, or they could have continued on their downward spiral. They chose the former. 

After they came up just short in overtime against the Eagles in Week 4, the Commanders had two options. They could have used that close loss as a sign that they were on the right track, or they could have wallowed in the defeat and phoned it in the next week. They chose the latter (and were called out by Magic Johnson, normally so encouraging).

Week 5 has barely started and we already have one surprising result. The Bears, in a fitting homage to Dick Butkus, played their best game of the year on Thursday night in Washington. It’s not often that anyone suggests “hey, do what the Bears just did,” but maybe another underdog or two can follow in their footsteps this weekend. 

My picks last week were decent again, but we also didn’t get many upsets. I was much more indecisive about the Week 5 slate — more than one-third of the league came into this week with a 2-2 record, and I’m uncertain about which of those teams are good and which aren’t. So I don’t feel entirely optimistic about my picks, listed in bold below, along with the odds as of Thursday night: 

Jaguars “at” Bills (-5.5)

Giants at Dolphins (-12.5)

Panthers at Lions (-10)

Ravens at Steelers (+4.5)

Texans at Falcons (-1.5)

Saints at Patriots (-1)

Titans at Colts (+2.5)

Eagles at Rams (+4)

Bengals at Cardinals (+3)

Chiefs at Vikings (+3.5)

Jets at Broncos (-2.5)

Cowboys at 49ers (-3.5)

Packers at Raiders (-1)

Reminder: Byes start now, so four teams have the week off. 

As Christian noted in his picks column, there are quite a few toss-up matchups this week. Let’s break them all down. 

The upsets I was tempted to pick but didn’t

If the Bears started a trend in Week 5, then we could be headed for upset city this Sunday. Perhaps one or two of these favorites will blow it — I just couldn’t bring myself to bet (theoretically anyway) against them.

Bills over Jaguars

The Bills and Jaguars have gone head-to-head six times in the last decade, and all six were one-score results. That includes their previous meeting two years ago, which Jacksonville won by a ghastly score of 9-6. 

I’m not going out on a limb here by predicting we’ll see more offense this time around. But I did almost take a chance and call for the upset. After all, the Jags are in London for the second straight week and didn’t have to deal with the jet lag and travel logistics that the Bills just did. The Jags are also more used to playing abroad — the Bills haven’t been to the UK since 2015, a few years before the Josh Allen era began (and guess what, they lost to Jacksonville by three points). 

Plus, Buffalo is primed for a letdown after dismantling the Dolphins in Week 4. All the ingredients are there for the Jaguars to surprise some folks. Alas, I picked against the Bills last week and that was a poor decision. I’m not going to risk it again.

Ravens over Steelers

The Steelers are one of those teams that can turn on a dime. As soon as you’re ready to write them off, they put together a strong enough performance to remind you why this franchise hasn’t had a losing season in 20 years. 

I think that, back home at ex-Heinz Field/whatever the stadium is called now, they can put last week’s ugly loss to the Texans behind them and give the Ravens a game. I also think that it would take Baltimore shooting itself in the foot multiple times — certainly a possibility! — for Pittsburgh to steal a win over the AFC North leaders.

Eagles over Rams

Despite their perfect record, the Eagles have been far from perfect this season. They needed overtime — and Reed Blankenship’s forearm — to hold off the Commanders last week, and they only have one double-digit win so far. They’re still one of the best teams in the league, though. 

The Rams also needed overtime a week ago to beat the Colts, but they’re no pushover. They’ve been competitive in all four games, thanks in large part to Matthew Stafford quietly dicing it up each week. And now he could have Cooper Kupp back. It wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Eagles dropped their first game of the season this week, but I don’t think LA’s defense can do enough to stop Philly’s offense.

Chiefs over Vikings

I’m guessing this one will come down to the fourth quarter. The Chiefs have been uncharacteristically mortal on offense this season, and the Vikings have only played in one-score contests. And maybe Kirk Cousins felt inspired by watching the Twins end their playoff losing skid. 

A big problem for Minnesota right now — besides its goal-line turnovers — is its defense, which is still finding itself under new DC Brian Flores. The Vikings have blitzed a lot this season, and that won’t work against Patrick Mahomes. But Flores has schemed, sometimes successfully, against Mahomes before, and his defense has done a good job of keeping explosive plays in check this year. In the end, however, I don’t trust the Vikings enough, especially with Jim Nantz on the call. 

The upsets I was absolutely not tempted to pick and didn’t 

Yes, a double-digit underdog has already prevailed this season (Cardinals vs. Cowboys). It could very well happen again at some point. Do I think it will this week? No.

Dolphins over Giants

Coming into Week 5, the Giants were ranked dead last in team DVOA. They have played exactly one good half of football all season (their comeback against the Cardinals). But this week presents an opportunity for the offense to start kicking it into gear after their abominable outing against the Seahawks: Miami’s defense clocks in at No. 29 in DVOA. 

Of course, Miami’s offense is ranked first in the NFL, and I highly question whether the Giants can slow the Dolphins’ playmakers down at all. I expect a bounce-back win for Mike McDaniel’s crew after their loss to New York’s one decidedly good team, the Bills, last week.

Lions over Panthers

It hasn’t been that long since these two teams faced off. Last season on Christmas Eve, in a game I have zero recollection of, the Panthers topped the Lions in Carolina. Since then, the Lions have lost once (Week 2), while the Panthers have won only once (Week 18 of last year).

I do not think their current trajectories will be altered this week. Carolina is better than its winless record would suggest, but Detroit could be undefeated right now if it had won an overtime coin toss. Maybe a different Lions team loses this matchup — I doubt this version does, though. 

The upsets I did pick

Depending on how the lines move, one of these favorites could be an underdog by the time kickoff arrives. I’m still including it!

Jets over Broncos

I understand if you’re skeptical of Zach Wilson stringing together two great performances in a row, but remember two things: 1) Denver’s defense is terrrrrible and 2) the Jets badly want to embarrass Sean Payton. That’s enough for me to predict a slight upset.

Cowboys over 49ers

The 49ers remind me a lot of last year’s Eagles: no obvious flaws, and they handle their business each week. To beat them, it’ll take a spirited effort from their opponent and a few self-inflicted mistakes from a typically sound team. 

The Cowboys could check both of those boxes. They’re hungry to avenge their last two losses to the 49ers, which occurred in the last two postseasons. And though neither squad gives the ball away often, the Cowboys are more adept at forcing turnovers than the Niners. Dallas also has an inside source of sorts: Trey Lance, who has been helping the defense scout his former team.

I should probably know better by now than to pick against the 49ers, particularly in a showdown with the Cowboys. But wouldn’t it just be like the Cowboys to finally vanquish their playoff nemesis during the regular season … and then possibly lose to them again next January.

Packers over Raiders

Even if Davante Adams downplayed his first meeting with the Packers since his trade to Vegas, I’m sure he’ll be extra motivated on Monday night. It’s not Adams that I’m concerned about, though, because he can still make plays like this while injured. Instead, the entire organization appears to be in disarray — and yet the Raiders are technically favored (at the moment, anyway) this week.

The Packers have been inconsistent this year, as has first-year starter Jordan Love, but the Raiders are simply too dysfunctional for me to put any faith in them.

The “just flip a coin” picks

To paraphrase To Tell the Truth, and my favorite episode of the Twilight Zone, and an early Eminem hit, will the real version of these teams below please stand up?

Falcons over Texans

The Falcons are often a tough team to peg and can quickly transform from an incompetent squad to a respectable one, and vice versa. 

The Texans have been on a roll the last two weeks, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud most of all. As such, they’ve been a surprisingly fun team to watch, and I really want to pick them this week. But I’ve also picked against them the last two weeks and have been perfectly happy to be wrong about it. Maybe I can make it three in a row — or maybe Bijan Robinson will give Houston’s defense fits and Jessie Bates III will be the first player to intercept Stroud, and the Falcons can end their two-game losing streak.

Patriots over Saints

I have absolutely no idea how this one will go, other than I do not expect it to be a high-scoring affair at all (will either side even crack 20 points?!?). Mac Jones was downright atrocious against the Cowboys last week, while a still-injured Derek Carr looked like he should’ve taken at least another week to heal instead of trying to take on the Bucs’ defense. 

The Patriots will also be missing two key defensive players — Matthew Judon and rookie Christian Gonzalez — and they won’t be coming back for a while, if at all this season. I’m giving the Pats the edge, however, because this game is in New England.

Colts over Titans

The Colts have been better than anticipated this season, and the Titans are coming off their most complete game yet in a 27-3 win over the Bengals. This one has major implications in the extremely tight AFC South race, where all teams are currently sitting at 2-2. 

Joe Burrow’s limited mobility was one of the reasons the Titans so thoroughly dominated the Bengals. Anthony Richardson will not have that problem, nor will Jonathan Taylor if he’s activated, which is why I’m ultimately siding with the home team. 

Bengals over Cardinals

I never would have believed this a month ago, but the Cardinals have played better, on the whole, than the Bengals this season. It’s clear that Cincinnati’s effectiveness has been hampered by Joe Burrow’s calf injury on offense and by the personnel turnover this offseason on defense. 

That said, Burrow is feeling the best he has for a while and he knows the urgency the 1-3 Bengals face. I don’t know if the “real” Bengals will show up on Sunday, but I do think we’ll see an improved version.