NFL picks for an early but pivotal Week 4

Divisional rivalries and a whole lot of bad vibes are on the menu this weekend.

Seasons aren’t won or lost in one week, especially when we’re not even through the first month. But Week 4 is set up to be a critical point for many teams around the NFL. 

The Lions started things off by taking an early lead in the NFC North with their commanding win in Green Bay on Thursday night. Who thought any of us would live long enough to hear a “let’s go Lions” chant break out at Lambeau Field?

A few more squads will try to establish themselves as the favorite in their division this weekend, while two others will avoid the dreaded 0-4 start by the time Sunday is over.

I ended up with a pretty good record last week, so let’s see if I can carry that momentum into Week 4. My picks are in bold below, with the odds from DraftKings included:

Falcons “at” Jaguars (-3)

Dolphins at Bills (-2.5)

Commanders at Eagles (-9)

Vikings at Panthers (+4.5)

Ravens at Browns (-3)

Bengals at Titans (+2.5)

Steelers at Texans (+2.5)

Buccaneers at Saints (-3.5)

Broncos at Bears (+3)

Rams at Colts (+1)

Raiders at Chargers (-5.5)

Cardinals at 49ers (-14)

Patriots at Cowboys (-6.5)

Chiefs at Jets (+9)

Seahawks at Giants (+1)

Before I discuss each matchup in further detail, be sure to check out Christian’s Week 4 picks.

Revenge is (maybe) on the menu

Several teams will be looking for a little payback after a memorable loss last season. Week 4 is also personal for a couple of players who will face their former franchise.

Dolphins over Bills

The last time these two division rivals met, the Dolphins were starting a third-string rookie at quarterback and still nearly upset the Bills in the playoffs. This time, Miami’s offense is healthy — and looks like a juggernaut. Buffalo is coming off its own dominating win in Week 3 and is back to playing the part of contender. But I need to see an opponent slow down the Dolphins before I pick against them again.

Eagles over Commanders

Last year, the Commanders handed the Eagles their first loss of the season. That could be the case again this year … when they meet in Washington next month. For now, though, I have a hard time trusting Sam Howell’s ball security against Philly’s defense. Howell just had a four-interception outing against the Bills, while the Eagles rank second in the NFL (behind the aforementioned Bills) in takeaways.

Cowboys over Patriots

The Cowboys are trying to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Cardinals, who ran for 222 yards and two touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott is fresh off his best game with the Patriots: 16 carries for 80 yards. Though he has yet to score a touchdown this year, Zeke did plenty of that in his seven seasons in Dallas, especially in the red zone.

And wouldn’t you know it, the Cowboys are struggling in that area this season — they’ve scored a touchdown on just six of their 15 red zone trips. I blame that more on a banged-up offensive line and Mike McCarthy’s playcalling than on them missing Elliott, however. I think the loss in Arizona in Week 3 could’ve been the wakeup call that Dallas needed.

49ers over Cardinals

The 49ers have less of a bone to pick with their NFC West rivals than they do with Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals’ new head coach. The Niners last tasted defeat in January, when an injured Brock Purdy was forced to play and Philadelphia’s defense — then under Gannon’s leadership — feasted. Gannon is familiar with San Francisco’s offense and just scored his first win as a head coach when Arizona shocked Dallas. But Purdy is healthy for the rematch, and so is most of the 49ers’ formidable squad.

Seahawks over Giants

Last year, Geno Smith went 3-0 against his former teams in a revenge tour sweep. He’ll meet the Giants once more on Monday night, a time slot that has been absolutely brutal to Daniel Jones. In fact, Jones has a hideous record in primetime games, though the Giants were big-time underdogs in most of those. That includes their Week 3 contest against the 49ers on Thursday night, which means they’ll get a little extra rest heading into Monday.

Still, Saquon Barkley isn’t expected to return to the lineup just yet, and New York’s defense simply hasn’t been good enough for me to bet against Geno.

The vibes are so bad

Barring any ties, two winless teams should get off the schneid — but only because they’ll be playing a similarly winless opponent. They’re not the only ones who are down in a big way, either.

Vikings over Panthers

The Vikings could easily be 3-0 right now, but their magic in one-score contests ended in 2022. The Panthers aren’t horrible and will get a win eventually. I just don’t think it’ll be this week. Or next week. Or the next.

Broncos over Bears

This matchup makes me sad, for Justin Fields most of all. But at least the Broncos have shown some life on offense, which is more than I can say for the Bears.

Chargers over Raiders

The Chargers secured their first victory of the season, though it was much nervier than it had any right to be. Now is the time to start a winning streak because the Raiders are a mess. 

Chiefs over Jets

Speaking of messes, let’s talk about the Jets. Aaron Rodgers called out his teammates (from Malibu), while Rodgers’ backup, Zach Wilson, is forced to try to prove Joe Namath and Willie Gay wrong. And he’ll have to do it on Sunday night, in front of millions of eyeballs and one of the most famous people in the world, against the reigning Super Bowl champs. Poor Zach.

The “just flip a coin” picks

Unlike last week, a majority of this week’s games are expected to be close. That’s good for entertainment purposes but bad for picking purposes.

Jaguars over Falcons

The Jaguars have had a disappointing start to the season, but contrary to what some may say, Trevor Lawrence has been fine. On the other sideline, Desmond Ridder is still figuring things out and doesn’t have the experience that Lawrence does playing in London. I’ll give the Jags the edge in their home away from home.

Steelers over Texans

The Steelers are not a great team and are somehow 2-1. The Texans have been getting better each week and are coming off their first win of the season. C.J. Stroud was a surgeon, even in the face of pressure, in the best game yet of his young career. But that was against the Jaguars, who have fewer sacks as a team (5) than T.J. Watt does (6) through three weeks. With big brother J.J. set to be inducted into the Texans’ Ring of Honor on Sunday, I think T.J. will be extra motivated to put on a show against Houston’s third-string-laden offensive line.

Ravens over Browns

Injuries finally caught up to the Ravens last week, and they were still only a Justin Tucker *gasp* miss away from improving to 3-0. Or if you prefer to blame the refs, they were an egregious no-call from improving to 3-0. The Browns would also be 3-0 if not for Deshaun Watson gift-wrapping two touchdowns for Pittsburgh’s defense in Week 2. As scary as Cleveland’s No. 1 defense (per DVOA) is, I don’t trust Watson enough to come through in a pivotal clash like this.

Saints over Buccaneers 

Every Saints game has been decided by a field goal or less, including their one-point loss to the Packers last week. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but then couldn’t muster any offense when Derek Carr left with an injury. Carr’s status this week is up in the air, and if he can’t go, Jameis Winston will be tasked to battle his former team.

Winston is 1-1 against the Bucs as a starter — and that was when Tampa had Tom Brady at quarterback, not Baker Mayfield. Last week against the Eagles, Mayfield faced his first legit defense of the season and struggled. New Orleans’ defense is, except for the fourth quarter in Green Bay, a legit defense as well.

Rams over Colts

The Rams started off the season on a positive note but have since dropped two in a row, albeit one-possession losses against two of last year’s playoff teams. The Colts are performing above expectations, and if I were Matthew Stafford, I’d be nervous about their pass rush against the Rams’ shaky OL. But they don’t have Aaron Donald, and the Rams do. I also believe Sean McVay can make the necessary adjustments to give his team a good chance of rebounding in Indianapolis. 

Bengals over Texans

It wasn’t all that comfortable watching a still-injured Joe Burrow tough it out last week against the Rams, but thankfully, he made it through the evening and more importantly to Burrow, he regained his rhythm with Ja’Marr Chase and got the win. Cincy’s pass rush also came alive to the tune of six sacks, which isn’t great news for Ryan Tannehill. Even though I remain worried about Burrow’s health, I’m not confident that the Titans have anyone who can keep up with Chase.