NFL picks for a disorderly Week 3
Oh no, Chargers vs. Vikings is coming!
One of my least favorite things about the early part of an NFL season is all the overreacting. There’s no need to worry about Kansas City’s offense just yet, especially when the Chiefs will be, AT WORST, 6-2 when November rolls around. And no, Bryce Young isn’t a bust because he’s struggled in his first two games with little help.
Fans have always had trouble seeing the big picture, but it’s gotten worse over the years as our addiction to phones grows and our attention span shortens. I will spare you my incredibly long rant about what has happened to digital media and media literacy in general. Instead, I’ll just point to the Bears’ week from hell as an example of this rot, from both the fans and media.
It’s been a strange few days in the NFL, with out-of-context quotes, an abrupt DC resignation, and way too many injuries dominating the headlines. I suppose, in a way, it’s fitting that the Week 3 slate is an odd mix of likely blowouts — as the 49ers-Giants game went on Thursday night — and “could go either way” matchups. There’s just a disjointed feel to this whole week.
Still, I’m not predicting many upsets this weekend, as you can see below with my picks in bold (the odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night):
Broncos at Dolphins (-6.5)
Bills at Commanders (+6.5)
Texans at Jaguars (-8.5)
Colts at Ravens (-8)
Falcons at Lions (-3)
Patriots at Jets (+2.5)
Titans at Browns (-3.5)
Saints at Packers (-1.5)
Chargers at Vikings (-1)
Cowboys at Cardinals (+12.5)
Panthers at Seahawks (-6.5)
Bears at Chiefs (-12.5)
Steelers at Raiders (-2.5)
Eagles at Buccaneers (+5)
Rams at Bengals?? (-3)
Don’t forget to check out Christian’s picks, either. Now let’s preview Week 3.
The big favorites for a reason
It seems like, based on the law of averages, at least one of these underdogs will win. I’m not feeling any of them enough to pick them outright, even though I don’t think all of the favorites will cover.
Dolphins over Broncos
In January 2022, the Dolphins tried to make a play for then-Saints coach Sean Payton (and were punished for it). That same month, the Broncos fired Vic Fangio.
Now, Payton is in Denver, Fangio is Miami’s DC, and this goof is the head coach of the Dolphins — and Mike McDaniel has them knocking on the door of a 3-0 start for the second year in a row. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming into Miami staring down the possibility of an 0-3 start for the second time in four years. While their two losses have been by slim margins, the Broncos have had issues with both their offense and defense. I don’t think those will get fixed against an opponent that’s looked like the team to beat in the AFC so far.
Bills over Commanders
Despite what the line suggests, I don’t think this is a slam dunk for the Bills. Washington’s defense is better than what the Bills saw from the Raiders last week, and its offense is starting to hum under Eric Bieniemy.
So much of the outcome depends on which version of Josh Allen shows up: the mistake-prone QB who tries to do waaay too much (like in Week 1) or the gunslinger who can lead Buffalo’s offense to a bunch of points in a hurry (like in Week 2). I’m guessing that it’ll be the latter.
Jaguars over Texans
Last week, the Jaguars had chances to tie or take the lead against the Chiefs, but they couldn’t convert — comically so — in the red zone. Luckily for them, Houston’s defense has practically shepherded its opponents into the end zone: it’s given up seven touchdowns in nine red zone opportunities.
Be careful about assuming this will be a blowout, though. When favored at home, Trevor Lawrence’s Jags have never covered … yet, to be fair, that’s only been four times.
Ravens over Colts
I don’t know if the Ravens will cover, but I do like them at home against a better-than-expected Colts team. Baltimore is handling its injuries fine so far, while Lamar Jackson is looking pretty comfortable in the pocket with a more improved (finally!) receiving corps.
Unfortunately, rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson remains in concussion protocol as of Thursday and could miss the game. Richardson has flashed in his limited play, but it might not be the worst thing if the more experienced Gardner Minshew gets the start against the tenacious Ravens defense.
Cowboys over Cardinals
Losing Trevon Diggs is a huge and unfortunate blow for the Cowboys. Still, this is the matchup between the team that plays hard and is good vs. the team that plays hard and is bad. I know which one I’m picking!
Seahawks over Panthers
The Seahawks have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team in the early part of the season, and their litany of injuries this week is a bit concerning. As is their defense’s 100 percent fail rate in the red zone. Then again, the Panthers haven’t been adept at converting in the red zone (2 of 5).
But this Sunday, it’ll be Andy Dalton who gets the start while Bryce Young recovers from an ankle injury. Dalton got a win over the Seahawks a year ago when he was with the Saints, though Taysom Hill did most of the work. And the Panthers don’t exactly have many big-play threats like Hill. Or really any.
Chiefs over Bears
The Bears will either respond to their tumultuous week with a more inspired effort or a (somehow) more deflated one. I choose to be hopeful that we’ll see a better version of the team than we’ve seen the last two weeks. Will that be enough to scare Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs? Absolutely not.
Eagles over Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has had a strong start to the season. Coming into Week 3, his 104.4 passer rating ranked fifth in the NFL, and he has yet to turn the ball over. Yet Mayfield has had similar starts in the past — his passer rating after Week 2 in 2021 was just a hair under what it currently is — and this year, he’s faced two iffy secondaries (Vikings, Bears). Now he has to go up against the Eagles, who have a much more formidable secondary, even if they haven’t been their best selves so far this season.
Philly has also forced more turnovers than every team except Dallas, so I predict two things: Mayfield will cough up the ball at least once, and he’ll take his first L in Tampa.
The “just flip a coin” picks
This part is shorter than usual, only because I saved a few of the coin-flip games for the next section.
Packers over Saints
Through two games, Jordan Love has thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions, the best TD:INT ratio in the NFL. But as his botched snap last week proved, he’s still learning what it takes to be Green Bay’s starter.
None of the defenses that Love has battled this season are on par with the Saints’ fearsome unit, which could bait the young quarterback into making mistakes. At the same time, New Orleans’ offense hasn’t been particularly sharp, coming in at No. 21 in offensive DVOA. This has all the makings of a 20-17 game, the same margin the Saints won by last week. However, I’m giving the edge to the home team this week.
Steelers over Raiders
The Steelers beat the Browns on Monday night despite the offense not stepping foot inside Cleveland’s 30-yard line. I don’t think they can count on two defensive scores every week, either, though Mike Tomlin isn’t sweating his offense quite yet.
Can Kenny Pickett & Co. get their mojo back this week against a Raiders defense that desperately misses Chandler Jones? I don’t have a ton of faith in Pittsburgh OC Matt Canada, but I do in Tomlin.
The extremely cursed clashes
Week 3 has provided us (or damned us) with some of the most snakebitten games we’ll see all season, whether that describes one team in the matchup or both.
Lions over Falcons
Most of you have probably heard of the Mandela Effect and experienced the phenomenon in one way or another. Like, for instance, did you know that Ed McMahon was a spokesman for American Family Publishers and NOT Publishers Clearing House?
Well, I just discovered that I have a false memory for a Falcons-Lions game that never existed. In my head, I remember Younghoe Koo kicking a last-second field goal to give Atlanta a win in Detroit at some point in the last few years. When I tried to find the box score, I realized that particular outcome never happened. It sure sounds like something the Lions and Falcons would do, though, right?
They have met four times in the last nine years, and each matchup was decided by one score. There was a last-second game-winning field goal for the Lions (in 2014), a last-second touchdown for the Lions that was nullified and gave the win to the Falcons (in 2017), a last-second game-winning touchdown for the Lions after Todd Gurley accidentally scored for the Falcons (in 2020), and Tim Boyle throwing a red zone interception in the last minute to quash the Lions’ comeback hopes (in 2021).
Based on that history, and everything else we know about these franchises, their latest battle is practically guaranteed to 1) get really weird and 2) go down to the wire. Both the Lions and Falcons might be good this time around, but I’m going with Detroit because I still don’t know what to make of Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder.
All that being said, if Koo kicks a game-winner for the Falcons, then I will have no choice but to believe that I’m a time traveler.
Browns over Titans
I don’t wish injuries on any players, but I can’t be the only one who thought, “no, not Nick Chubb! Football gods, take Deshaun Watson instead!” when the Cleveland running back suffered a devastating knee injury on Monday. By the end of the night, I’m guessing Browns fans were thinking the same thing after Watson’s second turnover-turned-TD cost them an elusive win in Pittsburgh.
As awful as Watson has been under center, Cleveland’s defense has been one of the best in the NFL. The Titans will be limping into Ohio with a paper-thin offensive line and possibly without Derrick Henry. That’s why I’m reluctantly riding with the Browns, while being totally aware that the football gods could strike them again at any time, as so often happens.
Patriots over Jets
The Jets have lost to the Patriots 14 times in a row, a streak that Garrett Wilson has called “unacceptable.” Now would be as good a time as any to end that skid: New England will be bringing an 0-2 record and a banged-up secondary into MetLife Stadium.
Although I don’t doubt Garrett Wilson’s ability to turn around the Jets’ misfortunes, I do doubt Zach Wilson’s ability to handle a Bill Belichick defense. The third-year quarterback has thrown seven interceptions against the Patriots in his career — and is just coming off a three-interception Week 2. Reading between the admittedly short lines, Belichick is not concerned about the Jets breaking their curse this week.
Vikings over Chargers, I guess
Why did the NFL even allow this matchup to happen? Even before both teams fell to 0-2 — all of which were one-score games, naturally — I shuddered when I saw this on the schedule. One ill-fated franchise that often loses in excruciating ways will find a way to stumble against another ill-fated franchise that often loses in excruciating ways, and IT WILL BE UNBEARABLE.
I think the Chargers are the more talented team, but they currently have the worst-ranked defense (per DVOA), with the secondary mostly to blame. And, well, the Vikings have reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson. That’s why I picked Minnesota, but honestly, I want nothing to do with this game.
The “is Joe Burrow playing?” game
As of Thursday night, no one knows if Joe Burrow’s calf injury will keep him out of Monday night’s Super Bowl 56 rematch. Kinda makes this showdown hard to project!
Bengals over Rams if Burrow plays; Rams over Bengals if he doesn’t
I don’t think the Bengals will risk Burrow if he’s not 100 percent (or as close to 100 percent as any NFL player can be). And if he’s healthy, I’m feeling optimistic that he’ll start to turn a corner and play more like himself. Why? Because we saw him do it last year and because he was in my dream the other night. I don’t really remember the details of that dream, except that I saw him in a Best Buy and he seemed to be doing well. I’m taking that as a positive sign.
If the Bengals have to turn to Jake Browning, however, I’m changing my pick to the Rams. Matthew Stafford and record-setting rookie Puka Nacua should be able to rack up yards against Cincinnati’s young secondary, and I don’t have high hopes that Browning, who has attempted one single pass in his career, is ready for a potential shootout.