NFL picks for an embattled Week 15

It's coaching hot seat season.

A few weeks ago, Adam Schefter warned us to prepare for a ruthless Black Monday. He said he thought there would be seven to 10 head coach openings by the end of the season, and that he expected the final total to be on the higher end. 

So far, two positions are already open: the Panthers and Raiders. Maybe, by the time you’re reading this, the Chargers will have joined them. Their Thursday night clash with the Raiders was an absolute bloodbath — historic in the worst of ways for the Chargers but in the best of ways for Vegas.

Earlier this week, longtime Patriots beat writer Tom E. Curran reported that Robert Kraft had already decided to move on from Bill Belichick once the season concludes. The writing was kinda on the wall all year, but it’ll still feel foreign to look over at the New England sideline and not see the scowling hoodie there, staring daggers at anyone who crosses him (and even those who don’t). 

That’s four coaching spots that should be available by Black Monday, but as Schefter promised, more will be coming. Quite a few other head coaches are on the hot seat, and how this week goes, and the next three after that, will decide who stays and who doesn’t.

Despite the startling way Week 15 began, I don’t think this weekend’s slate will be quite as strange as last weekend’s. I mean, Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson were the NFC and AFC Offensive Players of the Week, which pretty much says it all. 

I expect more of a return to normalcy in Week 15, but famous last words, right? Below, you’ll find my picks for the rest of the matchups — which will be spread out on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday — in bold, along with the odds as of Thursday night:

Vikings at Bengals (-3.5)

Steelers at Colts (-1.5)

Broncos at Lions (-4.5)

Chiefs at Patriots (+8)

Jets at Dolphins (-9.5)

Giants at Saints (-6)

Bears at Browns (-3)

Falcons at Panthers (+3)

Buccaneers at Packers (-3.5)

Texans at Titans (-3)

49ers at Cardinals (+12)

Commanders at Rams (-6.5)

Cowboys at Bills (-2)

Ravens at Jaguars (+3.5)

Eagles at Seahawks (+3)

And don’t forget to check out Christian’s picks for this week. Now let’s look a little more at who is and isn’t coaching for their jobs.

The seats are getting hotter

It might be too late for a couple of coaches to save their jobs, but others still have time, if they can finish the year on a strong note.

Chiefs over Patriots

One of these teams is on a losing streak and the other is coming off a win, and it’s the exact opposite as I would have guessed just a week ago. The Patriots even scored more points (21) than the Chiefs (17) did in Week 14!

This looks to be the last time Patrick Mahomes will face Bill Belichick, at least Belichick as the Patriots’ head coach. Right now, Mahomes is 2-2 against Belichick in his career, including a loss in the postseason. I’d bet Mahomes improves that record to 3-2 and, to atone for his antics last Sunday, for him to be extra polite afterward. 

Dolphins over Jets

How the Jets finish the season — Zach Wilson most of all — could determine if Robert Saleh is still their coach in 2024. If they lose out and Wilson reverts back to his worst tendencies, then I could see Jets ownership deciding to cut bait on both Saleh and Wilson (and probably most of this year’s starting offense, sans Garrett Wilson). 

I think the Jets have at least one more win in them, though I’d be a little surprised if it happened this Sunday. Not shocked, however, because Miami’s injuries are starting to pile up and Tyreek Hill’s status is uncertain. But the Dolphins will want to get the bad taste of Monday night’s collapse out of their mouths. They should be able to do that against a Jets team they demolished just a few weeks ago.

Browns over Bears

While the Bears have won two in a row for the first time since 2021, both Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields will need to add more wins to their resume to remain in Chicago once the season is over.

I’d understand if Fields still had nightmares from the last time he faced the Browns: In his first ever start, he was sacked nine times. Fields and his offensive line are much better since then, but so is Cleveland’s defense. I don’t expect Fields to be sacked nearly as many times as he was during his last trip to Cleveland — though surely Myles Garrett will take him down at least once — but I expect the end result, a Browns win, to be the same.

Falcons over Panthers

Arthur Smith’s job is supposedly safe unless the Falcons implode (always possible). But I don’t think any coach in the NFC South is truly safe unless he secures the very winnable divisional title, whether that’s Smith, Todd Bowles, or Dennis Allen. 

A loss to the Panthers would be crushing to both the Falcons’ playoff hopes and Smith’s job security. Luckily for them, I doubt it’ll come to that. The Panthers are in much worse shape as a franchise.  

Packers over Buccaneers 

The Bucs’ return to the top of the NFC South standings might not last that long. Their first cold weather game of the season awaits in Green Bay, where the Packers are trying to bounce back from Matt LaFleur’s first ever loss in December. 

The Pack’s rash of injuries is concerning, but Tampa hasn’t had a winning streak longer than two games all season and has only one road win over a non-divisional opponent (the Vikings in Week 1). If the Bucs could reverse both trends, then they’d be one step closer to another NFC South title and another season with Todd Bowles. I predict this division won’t be decided until Week 18, though, which means I’m also predicting a Tampa loss this week.

Rams over Commanders

Ron Rivera’s tenure in Washington is clearly reaching its end. The Commanders haven’t had much of a pulse lately and will be trying to avoid another blowout loss this Sunday.

The Rams should be able to score early and often. Washington’s beleaguered defense ranks dead last in the NFL in points allowed, while LA has put up 30+ points in each of the last three weeks. But maybe Washington’s offense will come to play after the team’s bye. These last few weeks can at least serve as OC Eric Bieniemy’s audition for head coach.

Both coaches are safe

And, not coincidentally, almost all of these teams are vying for a playoff spot.

Bengals over Vikings

Nick Mullens will make his first start since he had to fill in for Baker Mayfield in 2021 when Covid tore through the Browns’ locker room. In the past two years, Mullens has made just five appearances for Minnesota, including last week when he replaced Josh Dobbs and led the Vikings to that “thrilling” 3-0 win over the Raiders. 

Mullens looked totally fine in his limited action, though he was no Jake Browning (words I never thought I’d type). The Bengals have scored 34 points in back-to-back weeks with Browning under center to get back in the playoff hunt. Minnesota DC Brian Flores will probably make life difficult for Browning, but the backup QB will have two things on his side: the motivation of playing against his former team and a bunch of rowdy Cincinnati fans ready to drink a lot and scream a lot on Saturday afternoon. 

Lions over Broncos

The Lions need to get their mojo back, and unfortunately for them, they have a Saturday night date with one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Broncos have won six of their last seven matchups, and in that span, their defense has been one of the NFL’s top units and has forced the most takeaways since Week 7. 

Meanwhile, the Lions are in a mini-funk, having lost two of their last three contests — and they’ve turned the ball over six times in those two losses. As impressive as Denver’s turnaround has been, I’m not ready to give up on Detroit, which played its best football at this same time last year. Plus, the Lions are 3-0 in primetime this season and have won four straight at night dating back to last year.

49ers over Cardinals

Due to various injuries, it’s been more than two years since Kyler Murray has played against the 49ers. Murray and the Cardinals won that Week 5 matchup in 2021, and like almost every other Murray vs. the 49ers showdown, it was a one-score game.

I can potentially see a similar result this time around. That is, an unexpectedly close contest, not a Cardinals win.

Ravens over Jaguars

The Ravens need a win to stay atop the AFC. The Jaguars need a win to end their two-game skid. After this is over, one team will lament its missed opportunity. 

Sorry, Jacksonville, but I’m guessing that will be you. Not that Baltimore isn’t capable of losing this game — it did last season, a result that still eats at Patrick Queen. The Ravens are healthier, though, and their physicality should present problems for the Jags. On the plus side for the Jaguars, they finish the season with three below-.500 opponents, so even if they do lose for the third consecutive week, there are better days ahead.

Eagles over Seahawks

Like the Jags, the Eagles have lost two straight but close out the season with three relatively easy games. But first up on the agenda is a trip to Seattle, where shenanigans tend to unfold on Monday Night Football.

The Seahawks have won seven in a row over the Eagles dating back to 2011. All of this sounds like a bad omen for Philly, but the Seahawks are just 1-5 since the beginning of November and don’t know for sure who will be starting at quarterback this week. While the Eagles won’t be able to fix all their biggest problems in one night, they *won’t* be facing the 49ers or the Cowboys in Dallas this time, so I suspect they’ll look more like themselves again. 

The “just flip a coin” picks

This week, I waffled the most on a game with a line of -6. 

Steelers over Colts 

I’m taking a chance here that Mike Tomlin’s magic will outweigh Mitchell Trubisky’s, uh, whatever the opposite of magic is. Tomlin’s non-losing season streak is in jeopardy heading into the final stretch. The Steelers cannot afford to lose more than two games from here on out. I won’t believe a Tomlin team finishes with a below.-500 record until I see it with my own eyes, though. 

Not to mention, T.J. Watt will be back and the Steelers will be more rested than the Colts. Again, I’m counting on both factors to compensate for whatever Trubisky does or does not do on Saturday.

Saints over Giants

I’m a little surprised that the Saints are a touchdown favorite, considering that Tommy DeVito has been outplaying Derek Carr, the latter of whom had 37 yards passing going into the fourth quarter last Sunday. The Giants’ defense is not a good matchup for him, either. 

I honestly don’t know why I’m picking the Saints. I guess I have my doubts that DeVito’s “rizz” — my apologies for using the word “rizz” — won’t translate in the South?

Titans over Texans

Last Sunday, the cursed MetLife Stadium turf claimed Will Anderson Jr., Nico Collins, and C.J. Stroud, among others. Anderson is likely out this week, while the statuses of Collins and Stroud remain up in the air. Earlier in the week, DeMeco Ryans did not sound optimistic about Stroud’s chances of suiting up. Per Ryans, “not many guys” who sustain a concussion go on to play the next week. I disagree with him that it’s rare; in fact, it happens way more than it should!

But Ryans is right that Stroud’s health is what matters most of all. In this case, it means we should probably expect Davis Mills to start in Tennessee. Unless Stroud clears concussion protocol, I’m not feeling great about the Texans against the Titans.

Cowboys over Bills

The Cowboys aren’t at home, where they are lethal, and the Bills are coming off a big-time win in Kansas City, where they finally looked more like the Buffalo team we thought we’d watch all season.

However, the Bills haven’t beaten two good teams in a row this season, and I need to see more from them to truly believe they’re “back,” especially when it took another Chiefs receiver brain fart to get them a victory last week. I don’t think the Cowboys have anyone on the roster who can single-handedly deliver a win to the other team like that. At least, not until playoff time.