NFL Week 14: Help yourself

It was a much better Sunday for some playoff hopefuls than others.

I understand if you felt a little deja vu this Sunday in the NFL. In a week that already featured a number of backup quarterbacks, two more starters (C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert) left their game with an injury and did not return. In Herbert’s case, his season could very well be over.

And after last week’s officiating debacle on Sunday Night Football, the refs were under fire again in Week 14. Most notably, the normally mild-mannered Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes were upset due to a (correct) offsides call on Kadarius Toney that wiped out an extremely cool go-ahead touchdown. Mahomes in particular was livid in a way I’ve never seen, but I get why the frustrations would be mounting for him when his receivers find new ways to fail him each week. Reid and Mahomes weren’t alone, however. Myles Garrett also had words for the officials even after a Browns win.

But just like last week, I don’t want to focus on the negatives and who had the “worst” week in the NFL. Instead, I’d like to discuss who helped themselves the most this week. Specifically, I’m going to look at the teams that saw an uptick in their playoff chances (but shoutout to players like Justin Fields and Zach Wilson, who balled out and deserve some kudos too). 

With two more games left in Week 14, zero teams have clinched a postseason spot. Here’s who can at least feel better about their prospects heading into Week 15.

Buffalo Bills (7-6)

Playoff chances (%)

FPI: From 25.3 to 38.2

NYT: From 20 to 39

The last time we saw the Bills on the field, they fell in overtime to the Eagles, Buffalo’s sixth loss of the season (each one decided by one possession). The last time we heard about the Bills off the field, Sean McDermott had to apologize for a 9/11-inspired (and not in a good way) speech he made to the team a few years ago, among other incidents mentioned in a recent report about his tenure.

They needed a win on Sunday. Not just to boost morale, but also to potentially save their season. Based on the way they played, the Bills knew the stakes. Josh Allen pulled out a few ridiculous plays, of both the throwing and running variety, and made a clutch pass on third down to extend Buffalo’s go-ahead drive. The defense held Patrick Mahomes to his worst QBR of the year (27.3), forced two turnovers, and (with some help from Kadarius Toney), finally protected a late-game lead. 

The Bills still have to face the Cowboys and Dolphins to close out the season, and in a crowded AFC wild card race where they are currently the No. 11 seed, they probably have to win at least three of their last four games to make it back to the postseason. That’s certainly possible if Allen and Co. play like they did in Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

No. 1 seed chances (%)

NYT: From 37 to 43

Steve Kornacki: From 40 to 57

The Ravens’ win in Week 14 was unlike any of their previous nine this season. They went back-and-forth with the Rams all day long, with the lead changing nine total times (the most in any game this year). Lamar Jackson strengthened his MVP case with a productive outing: 316 passing yards (his second-most this year), three passing touchdowns, and 70 yards rushing (also his second-most this year). 

His biggest moment came with over a minute remaining and Baltimore trailing by five. On third-and-17 from LA’s 21-yard line, Jackson dropped back and delivered a silky-smooth deep pass to Zay Flowers for the touchdown. But the Ravens’ defense wasn’t able to hold the lead, allowing the red-hot Matthew Stafford to direct a game-tying field goal drive and send things to overtime.

After both offenses stalled, backup punt returner Tylan Wallace came through with the best highlight of the weekend: a 76-yard walk-off touchdown (I’m beginning to understand why the Rams have the worst-ranked special teams unit, per DVOA). It was the kind of resilient victory that the Ravens needed, especially at this time of the year as the playoffs loom — as do showdowns with Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins before that. Speaking of, that New Year’s Eve matchup with Miami just might decide who ends up with the top seed in the AFC.

Cleveland Browns (8-5)

Playoff chances (%)

FPI: From 64.4 to 80.8

NYT: From 70 to 84

Steve Kornacki: From 55 to 75

Remarkably, Trevor Lawrence played in Cleveland on Sunday, less than a week after limping off with a high ankle sprain on Monday Night Football. Despite the toughness he showed, Lawrence was still outplayed by 38-year-old Joe Flacco in his second start for the Browns. 

Flacco is well acquainted with Cleveland Browns Stadium, though, after his long career with the Ravens. And Flacco, who ranks third among QBs in most wins at said stadium, looked as comfortable as ever in Cleveland. He threw 45 times for 311 yards and three touchdowns — all of which are single-game highs for the 2023 Browns — and became the fourth QB to win a game for Cleveland this season. His most consequential play occurred early in the fourth quarter. Kevin Stefanski opted to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Jacksonville’s 41-yard line when the Browns were up one score. Flacco then found an open David Bell, who scampered home for the long touchdown. 

As usual, Cleveland’s defense (10 pass deflections, eight TFLs, four forced turnovers) and kicker Dustin Hopkins (a Browns record 31 made field goals) did their part to help earn a victory. But for once, the offense carried its weight too. It’s no wonder Stefanski named Flacco the starter for the rest of the season … and maybe into the postseason as well.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)

Playoff chances (%)

FPI: From 15.2 to 25.3

NYT: From 10 to 26

It sure seemed like the Bengals’ season was all but over a month ago when Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury. While they remain the biggest long shots among the clog of the AFC teams, they’ve done an admirable job without Burrow’s presence. Jake Browning has come out of nowhere to revive Cincy’s offense. After their 34-14 win over the Colts, the Bengals have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games for the first time all season. 

In his first three starts, the 27-year-old has completed 79.3 percent of his passes (an NFL record) for 856 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 113.4 passer rating, and also has two rushing TDs. In addition, he has appeared to unlock rookie Chase Brown, who has exploded for 166 total yards and a score the past two weeks after barely touching the ball all season. 

Browning will need to keep up his Burrow-like pace — and avoid any more muscle cramps — for the Bengals to stay in the playoff race. It may be unlikely, but Browning continues to defy expectations.

Denver Broncos (7-6)

Playoff chances (%)

FPI: From 15.6 to 38.1

NYT: From 30 to 50

The Broncos bounced back from their close loss to the Texans last week and looked ready to start another five-game winning streak. The defense — you know, that same one that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3 — led the way, as it has for almost two months now. 

Denver’s D came to play right away. On the Chargers’ first drive, Alex Singleton sacked Justin Herbert on third down to force a punt. That was the first of six sacks by the Broncos, each one by a different defender. It was also the first of 12 third-down attempts by the Chargers, all of which failed. Then, after Russell Wilson threw an interception to give LA good field position, the defense got back to work and stopped Herbert and Co. again, this time on fourth down. That was one of six fourth-down attempts by the Chargers, all but one of which failed. 

On the Chargers’ next possession, Herbert was picked off deep in LA territory, which set up Javonte Williams’ first rushing score since 2021. The Broncos led the entire rest of the afternoon, with an assist from an efficient offense and Courtland Sutton’s playmaking ability. 

But make no mistake: Their incredible second half of the season has been thanks to the defense. Since Week 7, the Broncos have allowed 15.6 points per game (second-fewest in the NFL in that span) and have 18 takeaways (most in the NFL). With only one above-.500 opponent left on their schedule — the somewhat struggling Lions — Denver could complete this turnaround with its first trip to the postseason in eight years. 

Dallas Cowboys (10-3)

NFC East title chances (%)

FPI: From 18 to 30

NYT: From 15 to 28

Steve Kornacki: From 18 to 35

On Sunday night, the Cowboys did what they’ve done all season: They won at home while scoring 30+ points. This time, however, they beat an opponent that currently has a winning record; all of their other wins are against teams below .500. Even more importantly, this victory came against the hated Eagles — and vaulted Dallas to the top spot in the NFC East, at least for now. 

Even after a terrific performance from Brock Purdy against the Seahawks, Dak Prescott is now the MVP frontrunner following the Cowboys’ 33-13 win. Aside from one mistake — that turned into Philly’s lone TD of the night — Prescott was dealing this week, as he has for the past two months. While his numbers were perfectly fine (271 yards, two TDs, 99.4), they don’t tell the entire story of how in command he was of the offense, particularly when it came to fitting the ball into a tight window. 

After the game, Prescott was quick to give credit to the Dallas defense and his kicker, as he should. The Cowboys forced three turnovers, all of which killed potential scoring drives, and kept the Eagles out of the end zone. Meanwhile, former soccer player-turned-kicker Brandon Aubrey has been automatic during his unprecedented start to an NFL career.

The Eagles are still the favorite to win the NFC East due to their favorable remaining schedule, but the Cowboys have at least given themselves a fighting chance to take back the division, and the guaranteed home playoff game that comes with it.

Minnesota Vikings (7-6)

Playoff chances (%)

FPI: From 49.5 to 64.3

NYT: From 51 to 57

A 3-0 final score is so rare in the modern NFL that the last time it happened was 2007. A 3-0 final score indoors is so rare in the NFL that it had never happened before, at least until Sunday between the Raiders and Vikings. 

Neither offense could get anything going, and only a Vikings missed field goal try prevented an all-punt first half. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Justin Jefferson left with an injury in his first game back — this throw from Josh Dobbs did Jefferson zero favors. From there, Dobbs couldn’t regain the magic he had in his first couple appearances with the Vikings and was eventually benched for Nick Mullens, who led them into field goal range with two minutes to go. 

Those three points decided the game, and kept the Vikings in the thick of the NFC wild card race. Mullens finished 9 of 13 for 83 yards in limited time and will likely get the chance to start next week. At this point, the Vikings don’t need major heroics from their quarterback. They just need competency, especially when the defense is dominating like it did in Vegas again. Rookie linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. was the star, with 13 tackles, a sack, and a game-sealing pick (one of three takeaways from the Minnesota defense). 

The defense can’t bail the Vikings out every week — like their 12-10 loss to the Bears in their previous game — but it’s playing well enough that with even an average offense (and hopefully the quick return of Jefferson), Minnesota could secure a playoff berth.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)

Playoff chances (%)

FPI: From 25.2 to 41.1

NYT: From 33 to 55

Steve Kornacki: From 30 to 50

One team will have to win the NFC South, and it is guaranteed to be one that, through Week 14, has a 6-7 record. That’s because the Buccaneers, Saints, and Falcons are all 6-7, while the one-win Panthers were eliminated from playoff contention last week. 

Though the Bucs and Saints each won this weekend and saw their playoff chances boosted in the process, Tampa is the current favorite to clinch the division title. That’s because they took down the former favorite, the Falcons, in thrilling fashion. 

The Bucs had led for most of the second half until late in the fourth quarter, when Desmond Ridder’s touchdown run put the Falcons on top by three points. It may have seemed like Tampa once again couldn’t make enough stops on defense or enough plays down the stretch to get the win. However, Baker Mayfield was able to direct his first fourth-quarter comeback of the season on a 12-play, 75-yard drive. Two big plays — Rachaad White’s fourth-down conversion and Mayfield’s 32-yard pass to Chris Godwin — helped get the Bucs into the red zone. From there, Mayfield hit Cade Otton for the go-ahead touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining. 

That put the Buccaneers back in the driver’s seat in the NFC South, though they also have a more difficult remaining schedule than both the Falcons and Saints do. All three are still very much alive, but at least right now, it’s the “tough” Bucs’ division to lose.

San Francisco 49ers (10-3)

No. 1 seed chances (%)

NYT: From 47 to 71

ESPN Analytics: From 42 to 58 

On the 49ers’ first offensive play against the Seahawks, Christian McCaffrey raced down the field for 72 yards. One play later, Jordan Mason was in the end zone for an early 7-0 lead. It appeared like it was going to be yet another game in which the Niners crush their opponent without much resistance. 

And it kiiiinda was. I mean, McCaffrey ran for 145 yards. Brock Purdy threw for a career-high 368 yards. Deebo Samuel (7 catches, 149 yards), Brandon Aiyuk (6 catches, 126 yards), and George Kittle (3 catches, 76 yards) all averaged more than 20 yards per reception. The defense recorded four sacks, snagged two picks, and stopped Seattle on all but two of its 12 third- and fourth-down attempts. 

Yet the final score was “only” 28-16. Drew Lock, who started in place of an injured Geno Smith, played mostly well until his two fourth-quarter interceptions. That’s when San Francisco was finally able to put Seattle away. It didn’t matter that it took a little longer than usual, though. The Niners still won their fifth straight game, all by double digits, and coupled with the Eagles’ loss, they are now in control of the No. 1 seed. If they win out, the NFC playoffs will go through San Francisco.