NFL picks for a messy Week 14

So many backup QBs, so much drama.

It’s only fitting that Week 14 kicked off with a battle between two backup quarterbacks on Thursday night. Bailey Zappe, who has been starting in place of the benched Mac Jones, led the Patriots to only their third win of the season, even though they had just three active receivers in the lineup. 

Mitchell Trubisky, who has taken over temporarily for the injured Kenny Pickett, engineered two second-half touchdown drives, but they weren’t enough to earn a W or stop the Steeler faithful from raining down boos — and chants for Mason Rudolph — on him. 

Bleak stuff. Which is kind of the theme for this week, when as many as 12 teams (including the Pats and Steelers) could be starting a quarterback who wasn’t QB1 at the beginning of the season. 

There are a few players whose status is unknown heading into the weekend, which made picking the games a little trickier. Here’s what I settled on, with my picks listed in bold, along with the latest odds as of Friday morning:

Rams at Ravens (-7.5)

Texans at Jets (+3.5)

Lions at Bears (+3.5)

Buccaneers at Falcons (-1.5)

Panthers at Saints (-5)

Colts at Bengals (-1.5)

Jaguars at Browns (-3)

Seahawks at 49ers (-11)

Vikings at Raiders (+3)

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

Broncos at Chargers (-2.5)

Eagles at Cowboys (-3.5)

Titans at Dolphins (-13)

Packers at Giants (+6.5)

I’m not feeling super confident with my choices, so as always, be sure to check out what Christian has to say about Week 14. Now let’s look at whatever chaos awaits us.

The backup QBs in the spotlight

Quite a few second-stringers will be in the starting lineup this week, and I’ve gotta admit, the ones I’ve highlighted below have been pretty entertaining.

Bengals over Colts

The Colts have exceeded expectations this season, but so has Bengals backup Jake Browning. In the only two starts of his career, the one-time practice squad journeyman has completed nearly 81 percent of his passes, thrown for 581 yards, posted a 109.1 passer rating, led a game-winning drive in OT against the Jaguars, and won AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.  

Can he keep the momentum going against the Colts, who have won four in a row with backup-turned-starter Gardner Minshew? I will say yes, if only because it feels like Indy is due for another loss soon. 

Browns over Jaguars

I will preface this by saying that I’m just assuming Trevor Lawrence won’t play, but that assumption looks a little less likely than it did earlier this week. I would probably change my pick if Lawrence is good to go because of his importance to Jacksonville’s offense and how strong the Jags have been on the road (5-0). 

On the other hand, Cleveland’s defense has been much scarier at home this season. That should be the case again on Sunday with Denzel Ward looking ready to return. The Pro Bowl corner will line up against an offense missing its leading receiver (Christian Kirk) and maybe its quarterback. 

Just like the Jags, the Browns’ QB situation is up in the air and their leading receiver could be out this week, but a lackluster offense hasn’t stopped them from winning other games this year. Give me Joe Flacco (?) and Cleveland’s D over C.J. Beathard (?), at least for now.

Vikings over Raiders

The Vikings are sticking with “Passtronaut” Josh Dobbs this week despite his turnover issues. I like the confidence that Kevin O’Connell and the rest of the offense has shown in Dobbs, and I think he can reward their trust with a bounce-back performance after the bye. The return of Justin Jefferson should only help Dobbs. So should Minnesota’s defense, which has forced 13 turnovers since Week 6 and can get rookie QB Aidan O’Connell (no relation to Kevin) to make a few mistakes of his own. 

Packers over Giants

A few weeks ago, I seriously wondered if the Giants would win another game this season. Since then, they’ve won two! And Tommy DeVito — sorry, I mean “Tommy Cutlets” — has played well enough for the Giants to roll with him on Monday night even though Tyrod Taylor is healthy again. I can’t say I expected that.

I also didn’t expect to see Jordan Love balling out like he has recently. Although I never gave up on him during his and the Packers’ midseason slump, his turnaround in the last three weeks has been amazing. But don’t sleep on Green Bay’s defense, which has played a big part in the team’s current winning streak. With the way they’re playing, both Love and the defense should be able to quiet the thousands of fans in New Jersey cheering on Tommy. Besides, who wants to bet against Matt LaFleur in December?

The teams with relative QB stability

For the most part, the teams at the top of the standings are the ones that have lacked much QB drama/injury issues this year.

Ravens over Rams

The Rams are riding a hot streak, with three wins in as many weeks. Not only did they rebound from a three-game slide immediately before that, but they’ve also found themselves right in the mix for an NFC wild card spot. 

Unfortunately for the Rams, they have yet to beat a truly elite team — and have a date with one of them this weekend in Baltimore. The Ravens are rested after their bye and know they can’t afford any missteps if they want to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

Lions over Bears

The Bears, before their bye week, earned their first victory against an NFC North opponent in the Matt Eberflus era when they edged past the Vikings. But they almost had another divisional win the week before in Detroit, where they let the Lions stage a late rally. 

We know the Bears can hold their own against the Lions, who have been inconsistent in the past month despite notching a 3-1 record in that time. Still, if this one comes down to the final minutes again, I know I trust the Lions more than I do the Bears.  

49ers over Seahawks

For my own sanity, I would love to see the Seahawks pull off the upset this week. I just can’t wrap my head around Brock Purdy being the NFL MVP frontrunner. He’s not even the MVP of his own team! We don’t have to do this! Just give the award to a non-QB: There are plenty of good options out there.

Ugh. Anyway, the Niners beat the Seahawks in Seattle by 18 points on Thanksgiving night. I’m not getting my hopes up that the rematch, just a couple of weeks later, will be much different.

Cowboys over Eagles 

As promised last month, I’m taking the Cowboys in their rematch with the Eagles. Although it’s been more than two years since Jalen Hurts has lost back-to-back games, the Cowboys are a juggernaut at home. They’ve won 14 straight in Dallas, and they’ve put up more than 40 points in the last five of those.

Mike McCarthy is expected to be on the sideline after undergoing surgery, but if he’s not, well that’s just one more reason to believe in the Cowboys. 

Dolphins over Titans

Will Levis has now started half of the Titans’ games and has been mostly fine. That said, he has looked like a rookie against the best defenses he’s faced. Last week, the Colts racked up six sacks against him and forced him to fumble three times. Levis has also thrown just three total touchdowns since his four-TD debut against the Falcons.

In the last five games, Miami’s defense has allowed just six passing touchdowns, created at least one takeaway each week, and recorded 17 sacks. I don’t think that Levis — or the Titans’ secondary having to try to slow down the Tua-Tyreek connection — is in for a fun Monday night in Miami.

The “just flip a coin” picks

Guess what, we have even more turmoil and quarterback uncertainty in this section.

Saints over Panthers

At this point, I don’t know if Derek Carr is starting Sunday or not. He left last week’s loss to the Lions with several injuries, including his second concussion in a month. That alone makes me think he shouldn’t play, but he has returned to practice while remaining in concussion protocol, so your guess is as good as mine. I also don’t know if it’d be better or worse if Jameis Winston starts for New Orleans in his place. Certainly more exciting. 

The Panthers narrowly lost to the Saints in Week 2 and have also narrowly lost in three of their last four matchups. In theory, they should be able to steal another win before the season is over. Carolina is such a mess, however — “a ‘Hunger Games’ culture”?? — that I don’t want to give the Panthers any benefit of the doubt.

Texans over Jets

While we’re on the topic of messy franchises, let’s talk about the Jets. This past week, they released the ineffective Tim Boyle and went back to Zach Wilson, who had to deny rumors that he was “reluctant” to be the starter again. Maybe this is the fire Wilson needs to end the season on a high note. 

That didn’t happen last year, when the Jets also benched Wilson in November and then returned to him in December. Wilson had a few good moments in his first game back (and a couple of bad ones too), but the Jets failed to secure the win. Or any other wins the rest of the season. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if a similar storyline played out on Sunday. The Jets’ defense could throw a few things at C.J. Stroud that he hasn’t seen elsewhere, and once again, a Texans game might go down to the wire. But with the way that Houston’s defense has played lately, and the general dysfunction of the Jets’ offense no matter who is at QB, I have to side with the Texans. 

Buccaneers over Falcons

I don’t want to predict who will win the NFC South, but I do kinda hope the Bucs, Falcons, and Saints all end up 1-1 against each other. That would require Tampa to win the rematch in Atlanta, and since I don’t want to think any more deeply about this terrible division, that’s what I’ll pick. 

Chiefs over Bills

The Chiefs are 2-3 in their last five matchups, their worst stretch since early 2021. The Bills are 6-6, their worst record at this point in the season since the early part of the Sean McDermott era.

Speaking of McDermott, a report — backed by a number of anonymous sources — came out that, among other things, he had used the 9/11 terrorists in a speech to his players as an example of teamwork. Soon after, he confirmed the report by offering a public apology. Though this incident took place a few years ago, it was enough for me to stop entertaining the Bills as an upset pick this Sunday.

Broncos over Chargers

Last week, the Broncos’ five-game winning streak ended on a last-second interception in the end zone. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ three-game losing skid was snapped thanks to two field goals — the only points in their 6-0 victory in New England. 

The Chargers need a win more than the Broncos do this week to try to resuscitate their fading playoff hopes, and they have the talent advantage in this AFC West showdown. But they’re also the Chargers, meaning they disappoint far more often than they delight. Plus, plain and simple, Denver has been the better team recently.