NFL picks for an extreme Week 9
What a wild week it's already been.
Week 9 is off to a rousing start, and I’m not talking about the actual games. The NFL had an eventful trade deadline on Tuesday, but the biggest news of the night came late, when Raiders owner Mark Davis decided to fire Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler.
McDaniels’ firing seemed inevitable as soon as the Raiders hired him a year and a half ago, and the on-field product did nothing but confirm those suspicions. I’m sure McDaniels will land somewhere, probably back on the Patriots’ coaching staff at some point. But I hope no team ever hires him as a head coach again1. Two failed and short-lived stints more than a decade apart should be enough evidence that this guy is not head coaching material.
As for the action on the field, this week lives on the extremes. On one end, we have several high-profile matchups between contenders, starting bright and early on Sunday morning in Germany. On the other end, quite a few backup quarterbacks will be in the starting lineup, and most of those games will likely be ugly. Kinda like the Steelers’ win over the Titans on Thursday night.
Here’s a look at the rest of this week’s schedule, with my picks in bold (the odds are also listed, as of early Friday):
Dolphins “at” Chiefs (-2)
Seahawks at Ravens (-6)
Cardinals at Browns (-8)
Bears at Saints (-8.5)
Commanders at Patriots (-3)
Vikings at Falcons (-4)
Buccaneers at Texans (-3)
Rams at Packers (-3)
Colts at Panthers (+2.5)
Cowboys at Eagles (-3)
Giants at Raiders (-1.5)
Bills at Bengals (-2)
Chargers at Jets (+3.5)
Byes are back, so four teams are off this week. Unfortunately, that means we have to wait a little while longer to see the reunion between Nick Bosa and Chase Young.
Before we take a closer look at the teams that are playing, you should head over to FTW to check out Christian’s picks. Now let’s get to the good, the bad, and the ugly of Week 9.
The games that should be good
I’d call four matchups this week “must-watch,” and lucky us, they’re spread throughout Sunday: one in the early morning, one in the early afternoon, one in the late afternoon, and one in the evening.
Chiefs over Dolphins
When the 2023 schedule first came out, I thought the NFL had blessed Germany with a high-octane shootout. That could still be the case, but somewhat surprisingly, the Chiefs might prevent it from happening.
Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been as potent as we’re used to it being; only twice have the Chiefs scored more than 30 points. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain two of the most dynamic playmakers in the league, but their surrounding cast hasn’t been very steady. Kansas City’s defense, however, has stepped up while the offense has regressed a little. The Chiefs rank in the top 10 in most statistical categories, including touchdowns allowed, yards per play, points surrendered, and sacks.
More importantly, Steve Spagnuolo might just have the kind of defense that can slow down Tua Tagovailoa and his speedy receivers and mess up their timing. The Chiefs are also extremely familiar with Tyreek Hill’s game, both his strengths and weaknesses.
Miami’s defense is on the upswing now that Jalen Ramsey is back, but the Dolphins have yet to beat a team with a winning record. While it’d be quite the statement if they ended that streak against the defending Super Bowl champs, the Chiefs haven’t lost two straight since September 2021. After their embarrassing performance against the Broncos last week, I imagine they’ll be ready to atone on Sunday morning.
Ravens over Seahawks
For the third week in a row, I will point to Lamar Jackson’s preposterous record against NFC teams (17-1!) and for the third week in a row, I refuse to bet against him. Even though all eyes will be on Jackson during his MVP push, the defenses might be the real stars of the afternoon.
The Ravens, who were already No. 1 in overall DVOA, overtook the Browns for the No. 1 defense too. They give up just 4.2 yards per play, fewer than every other defense in the NFL by a wide margin. Meanwhile, once the calendar turned to October, the Seahawks have been back to their Legion of Boom days. Last month, Seattle’s defense topped the NFL in points allowed and EPA.
However, Jackson and Baltimore’s offense will present a much bigger challenge than the Seahawks faced all last month and perhaps all season. With Seattle’s offense being a little helter-skelter lately, I’m sticking with the Ravens.
Eagles over Cowboys
The Eagles have been more consistent than the Cowboys this year, but the Cowboys’ best football has been better than the Eagles’. Overall, these two bitter rivals are pretty evenly matched — Dallas is No. 8 in team DVOA, while Philly is No. 9.
So why not revisit the approach that worked for me last year? I’m picking the Eagles at home and then, barring any major injuries, will go with the Cowboys for the rematch. Spoiler alert for Week 14!
Bengals over Bills
It’ll be an emotional evening in Cincinnati, on the same field where Damar Hamlin collapsed 10 months ago. The Bengals and Bills have met since that harrowing night, in Buffalo during the postseason. The Bengals came away with the win then, just as I predict they will this time.
The Bills have been all over the map this year, sometimes playing like a contender and sometimes playing down to the competition. Buffalo’s defense has been hit hard by injuries, though reinforcements are coming soon (and maybe this weekend). For the last five weeks, the Bills have traded wins and losses, and if they keep up that pace, they’re due for another loss.
At the same time, the Bengals have caught fire, reeling off three straight wins. Joe Burrow is officially back to his old self, which is great news for Cincinnati and bad news for the rest of the AFC. I’m riding with the hot hand at home, but the outcome depends on which version of the Bills shows up on Sunday night.
The games with the messiest QB situations
Several backups are officially starting this week, either due to injury or because the starter was benched. There are also a couple QBs whose status remains up in the air.
Browns over Cardinals
I, for one, am hoping that Kyler Murray won’t start this weekend because the last thing I want to see is for him to be Myles Garrett’s next meal. Sorry, Clayton Tune. I know it’s not particularly fair if his first ever start is against the Browns’ nasty defense, but Murray is just coming back from a torn ACL and I do not wish for him to be immediately injured again.
And once again, no one has any idea, including the man himself, if Deshaun Watson will suit up or not. As we’ve already seen, the Browns can win without him (and sometimes in spite of him).
Saints over Bears
I don’t know if the Saints have fixed their offensive inconsistencies, but Derek Carr and Co. looked like a more cohesive unit last week, with season highs in points (38), total yards (511), passing yards (350), rushing yards (161), and yards per play (7.7). I expect them to continue to jell this week.
Even if the Bears get a boost from new pass rusher Montez Sweat, their defense ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories — and No. 30 in DVOA. Tyson Bagent, still in the lineup for Justin Fields, has a tough test in the Superdome. After Bagent and Chicago’s offense couldn’t get much going against the Chargers last week, I don’t have high hopes for them against a much more stout defense in New Orleans.
Falcons over Vikings
I made the mistake last week of believing that the Falcons could beat a rookie QB in his starting debut. So let’s try again this week!
Really, though, the Falcons already have a couple of wins against first-year quarterbacks this season, and unlike Will Levis last week, Jaren Hall will not be throwing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. If Kirk Cousins and/or Justin Jefferson were healthy, I’d probably be taking the Vikings on the road. Alas, they are not.
I do think Minnesota’s ever-improving defense — now No. 10 in DVOA! — can make things difficult for Taylor Heinicke in his first start of the season, but I don’t have high hopes for the offense without Cousins right now.
Packers over Rams
At this point, I don’t know if Matthew Stafford will play on Sunday. If he’s out, or even if he plays injured, the Packers have a great opportunity to get off the schneid. They’ve now dropped four in a row and are in the midst of their worst start since 2005.
This is the best chance all month for Green Bay to end its skid. The Packers are back home, and the Rams haven’t won a contest at Lambeau Field since 2006. Plus, Matt LaFleur has never lost to his good buddy Sean McVay.
Raiders over Giants
It’s only been two years since the Raiders dealt with an in-season coaching change, and they won their first game with an interim coach. It’s only been one year since the Raiders have faced an interim coach in his first game, and they lost that one … to Jeff Saturday, in his only win with the Colts.
Sure, that’s a small sample size, but it’s not hard to understand why players tend to have a little extra fire after their head coach is fired. The Raiders’ locker room looks like a weight has been lifted off their shoulders after being free from Josh McDaniels. Considering the praise that Davante Adams has had for both interim HC Antonio Pierce and new starter Aidan O’Connell, I’ve got to take Vegas in front of a home crowd ready to welcome in the post-McDaniels era.
The “just flip a coin” picks
I have my doubts that any of the following games will be aesthetically pleasing, but they should at least be competitive.
Patriots over Commanders
The Commanders played well enough last week to beat the Eagles, but they came up short in end, just like their previous matchup this season. Now 3-5, they have their sights set on the future after trading away valuable assets.
That doesn’t mean Washington is giving up on the season, but its already disappointing defense just got worse, so let’s be real. The Commanders probably won’t win a ton more games this year. The Patriots might not either, but they’re playing at home and Mac Jones hasn’t been a complete disaster the last couple weeks. As such, I’m giving them the nod.
Buccaneers over Texans
These two teams both exceeded expectations to start the season but have suffered setbacks recently. The Bucs are now on a three-game losing streak. The Texans just became the first team to lose the Panthers and haven’t scored more than 20 points in their last three matchups. I’m not optimistic that will change against a Tampa defense that allows just 18.3 points each week, especially when Houston could be missing a couple of key players.
Then again, the Buccaneers have had their own issues on offense. They average fewer points (17.3) than the Texans (21.1), and their red zone success and running game are in slightly worse shape. Still, I think the Bucs’ experience gives them the edge — that, and I’m guessing Texan natives Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans will want to show out in their home state.
Panthers over Colts
Frank Reich won’t call it a revenge game, but I will. While I don’t think Reich wishes any ill will toward his former players, I wouldn’t blame him if he wanted to get the last laugh against Colts owner Jim Irsay.
The Panthers finally got in the win column last week, and sometimes winning can be contagious. Although they’ve had a bumpy road this season, getting that monkey off their back could loosen them up a bit. Indy has been better than Carolina this season, so it won’t be easy, but if the Panthers can continue to take care of the ball — they haven’t turned the ball over since Week 5 — I believe they can put together their first winning streak of the year.
Chargers over Jets
Honestly, you could probably just wait to tune in until the final few minutes of this week’s Monday Night Football clash. At that point, I’d assume the Chargers would have a lead, no more than a touchdown, and the Jets would have the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. Will LA’s defense crumble again late, against a quarterback, Zach Wilson, who somehow leads the league in comeback wins this year? Or will Wilson run out of luck this time, against a franchise that might be more cursed than his own?
It could go either way! Justin Herbert’s mini-slump, which began when he injured his finger, appears to be over. He could also be getting another weapon back for the first time this season, which would be most welcome against the Jets’ QB-hating defense. Ultimately, my faith in Herbert is what tipped me toward the Chargers this week.
Unless Michigan hires him, the funniest possible conclusion to the Connor Stalions saga.