NFL picks for a hectic Week 11
Chaos may be in the air this weekend.
This week’s newsletter is a little late because I’ve spent the last few days moving (for the second time in six months and hopefully the last time in a long time). As you can imagine, it’s been a hectic week for me.
I don’t know if the NFL and I are wavelengthing so much that Week 11 will be similarly chaotic, especially with four teams on a bye. But I do think we could be in for some mayhem, based entirely on this week’s slate of tough-to-call games.
Let’s take a look at my picks below, listed in bold along with the odds from DraftKings (as of Friday).
Packers at Bears (+5.5)
Jaguars at Lions (-13.5)
Ravens at Steelers (+3.5)
Vikings at Titans (+6)
Raiders at Dolphins (-7)
Rams at Patriots (+4.5)
Colts at Jets (-4)
Browns at Saints (+1)
Seahawks at 49ers (-6.5)
Falcons at Broncos (-2)
Chiefs at Bills (-2)
Bengals at Chargers (-1.5)
Texans at Cowboys (+7.5)
Because of my busy week, I’m going to speed-run through my explanations. You can also read up on Christian’s picks at FTW.
Week 11 picks
Thirteen more matchups are on tap this week, and I’d say about half of them are coin-flip games.
Packers over Bears
It’s possible Chicago’s offense will get a boost after firing OC Shane Waldron (JSN knew all along), but I need to see actual improvement before I can trust the Bears again.
Lions over Jaguars
At first I did a double-take at this line, but then I remembered the Jaguars will be starting Mac Jones for another week.
Ravens over Steelers
Lamar Jackson has struggled against the Steelers in his career, but he’s been on such a tear in the past month (14 TDs, 0 INTs) — and he’ll have Derrick Henry to carry some of the load this time against Pittsburgh.
Vikings over Titans
Sam Darnold has come back to earth a bit in recent weeks, but if this comes down to turnovers, one team (Minnesota) leads the NFL in takeaways and the other (Tennessee) is near the bottom.
Dolphins over Raiders
I don’t think the Dolphins are “back” necessarily, but they have put up more than 20 points for three straight weeks now and seem to be finding a rhythm — something the Raiders have lacked all year.
Rams over Patriots
The Rams have yet to win this season while venturing outside their time zone, but I think they’ll be ready to shake off their sloppy effort against Miami last week.
Colts over Jets
The Colts are messy, but probably less so than the Jets. I don’t know if going back to Anthony Richardson will fix the Colts, though I do think he can put up yards on the ground against NY’s shaky run defense.
Browns over Saints
A Jameis Winston revenge game? No matter who wins, I expect the ending to be dumb.
49ers over Seahawks
The Niners are getting healthier, and the Seahawks are still figuring out their identity on defense — which has led to some unexpected changes. Gotta go with the team in the better flow.
Broncos over Falcons
Sean Payton just has a way of getting under the Falcons’ skin.
Bills over Chiefs
A few weeks ago, I circled this game to be KC’s first loss. The Chiefs are technically underdogs, which makes me doubt my prediction a bit, but I may as well stick with it.
Bengals over Chargers
This is, maybe, the hardest game to pick of the week. I ultimately went with the Bengals, who have lost several close contests this season and are due for a little luck on their side.
Texans over Cowboys
The banged-up Texans should have beaten the Lions last week, while the banged-up Cowboys didn’t have much of a chance against the Eagles. Both are still banged up, but if Nico Collins is back (and it seems to be trending that way) then I like Houston in this Texas showdown.