What would be the most boring Super Bowl 59 matchup?
I'm not saying the next Super Bowl will suck, but we'll get another stinker eventually.
Welcome back to The Post Route, NFL fans. I’d like to apologize for my absence so far this summer, which turned into a longer break than I initially anticipated.
There are a few reasons that I’ve been away, but No. 1 on that list is that I’m currently in the process of major home renovations and had to move everything out of my house, including myself. My whole routine has been thrown off ever since.
At the same time, nothing much was happening in the NFL world, while entirely too much was happening in the real world. The last 10 days alone have felt like a decade’s worth of news stories. And for about, oh, a month, I’ve had a hard time concentrating on anything besides this election season.
But with training camps starting up, I figured it was time to dip my toes back into the football waters. I’m not sure how often I’ll write before the season starts; my remodel isn’t anywhere near the finish line, and the upcoming Olympics will capture my attention for the next couple of weeks. However, I won’t simply disappear again.
Speaking of the Olympics, I’m looking forward to them as I always do, but I’m probably more amped than usual. I think that’s because of how disappointed I’ve been lately as a sports fan. Once the Super Bowl ended and basketball took over the spotlight, the results were double-digit wins in the NCAA men’s and women’s championship games, and a completely unforgettable NBA Finals (the WNBA season has been killing it so far, I should note). My baseball team is below .500, as they have been for most of the season and most of my adult life. Copa América was a disaster for the USMNT. The Stanley Cup Final did go to Game 7, though most of those games were blowouts.
So the NHL at least gave us a little drama with a championship on the line, which is more than I can say for most pro sports leagues outside the NFL lately. That said, I’m worried we’re due for a boring Super Bowl sometime soon. We usually get a couple of duds every decade, and we haven’t had one that fits the category since the 2020 season, when Tom Brady and, most especially, the Bucs’ defense rolled over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
That got me thinking about what potential Super Bowl 59 matchup would deliver the kind of snoozer that the NFL has avoided for the last few years. I’m not talking about, like, Panthers vs. Broncos. Neither of those teams has a prayer at the Lombardi Trophy this coming season. Instead, I mean which realistic Super Bowl matchup might produce the least compelling game.
Based on my own methodology, I think I have an answer.
A couple of quick notes. First, I focused solely on eight teams with the best Super Bowl odds at the moment. And because I wanted an even number of squads from each conference, I had to leave off the Texans, who are currently tied with the Cowboys for the eighth-best odds. That doesn’t mean they, or any other team listed below them, can’t make it to the Superdome next February. But to make it cleaner for myself, I limited this breakdown to four teams in the NFC and four in the AFC.
Second, I came up with a formula to evaluate these eight franchises. Here are the five factors I used to rate each team, all on a scale of 1-5:
1. Is the starting QB exciting to watch? 1 would be like late-career Ben Roethlisberger (a big lump of potato out there dragging everyone down), and 5 would be a QB like Mahomes.
2. Are the skill positions loaded with household names? 1 would be like the 2023 Panthers, and 5 would be the Greatest Show on Turf.
3. Can the defense get after it? 1 would be like the Broncos in their hellish afternoon against the Dolphins last September, and 5 would be the ‘85 Bears.
4. Would they bring new blood to the Super Bowl? 1 would be like the Belichick/Brady Patriots, and 5 would be like the Browns/Lions/Texans/Jaguars, the only four franchises that have never been to the Super Bowl.
5. Do they have a coach that you’d want to play for? 1 would be like Urban Meyer with the Jaguars, and 5 would be a high-energy, fun-loving motivator like Dan Campbell or Andy Reid (both of whom earned an A+ from players on the NFLPA report cards).
You might disagree with my ratings, but that’s OK. This is all subjective! Now let’s take a closer look at the eight most likely Super Bowl candidates.
San Francisco 49ers
QB: 2
Brock Purdy may have proven he can be more than a game manager, but sorry, I will never be excited about watching him play.
Weapons: 4
The NFL’s best supporting cast from last season should return mostly intact, depending on what happens with the Brandon Aiyuk contract situation. Last year, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle, and fullback Kyle Juszczyk were all named first-team All-Pros, and all four are still in San Francisco.
Defense: 4
Despite another change at defensive coordinator, San Francisco returns most of its core players on that side of the ball, including Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. As such, the Niners should continue to have one of the top defenses in the NFL … except when it’s late in the game against Patrick Mahomes.
New blood: 2
The 49ers have been to the Super Bowl three times in just over a decade and have five championships in franchise history. The only reason I gave them a “2” instead of a “1” is because they haven’t won it all in 30 years.
Coach: 3
I think Kyle Shanahan has a smart football mind and mostly gets results on the field, but he also has this habit of coldly casting aside players. So he might not be the most fun guy to play for, unless you’re one of his favorites.
Total: 15
Kansas City Chiefs
QB: 5
Whatever problems that KC’s offense had throughout the 2023 regular season, Mahomes was still out there making chicken salad out of chicken, uh, feathers. He, along with the Chiefs’ resurgent defense, dragged Kansas City to its second straight title, with Mahomes earning Super Bowl MVP honors for the third time.
Weapons: 2
The only truly reliable weapon for Mahomes last season was Travis Kelce, who is doing most of the heavy lifting here. Rashee Rice emerged in the second half, though he’s facing legal issues. Xavier Worthy could also turn into a consistent playmaker, depending on how long it takes for the rookie to adjust to the NFL, while Hollywood Brown has the potential to bounce back from an underwhelming stint with the Cardinals.
Defense: 3
KC’s defense was a revelation last year — by far the best unit that Mahomes has ever been paired with in his career. The two more important pieces, DC Steve Spagnuolo and star lineman Chris Jones, will be back. However, the loss of three starters (Willie Gay, L'Jarius Sneed, and Mike Edwards) has me in wait-and-see mode with the 2024 version of the defense. I think the Chiefs will still field a good defense, but TBD on whether it can reach “elite” heights again.
New blood: 1
The Chiefs have appeared in four of the past five Super Bowls and have won three of those. And just when we finally stopped seeing the Patriots make the trip nearly every year.
Coach: 5
Mahomes’ mom may have had her doubts about Andy Reid, but there’s a reason he’s one of the most beloved figures in football. Many reasons, in fact.
Total: 16
Baltimore Ravens
QB: 5
Last season, MVP Lamar Jackson reminded anyone who doubted him — again — he’s still the most exciting player in the NFL when he has the ball in his hands.
Weapons: 2
While I might be low-balling the Ravens here, they can also improve this number with better luck than last year. A healthy Mark Andrews, paired with Isaiah Likely, is one of the best tight end duos in the NFL. The running back room should also rank near the top of the league, if injuries don’t decimate the depth again and if 30-year-old Derrick Henry can still be a workhorse away from Tennessee. The receiving corps lacks star power, but that can change a little if Zay Flowers continues his upward trajectory.
Defense: 4
I’m trusting that Baltimore, even after losing DC Mike Macdonald, linebacker Patrick Queen, and safety Geno Stone this offseason, will still be a force to be reckoned with on defense. That’s because 1) the Ravens have, on a near-annual basis, enjoyed a strong defense since the days of Ray Lewis and 2) All-Pros Kyle Hamilton, Justin Madubuike, and Roquan Smith all return.
New blood: 3
In less than 30 years, the Ravens have made two Super Bowls and won them both. However, their last title came over a decade ago, and Jackson’s otherwise impressive resume is missing an appearance in the big game.
Coach: 3
Although I personally recoil at the idea of playing for a Harbaugh, John Harbaugh must be doing something right. He’s the second-longest-tenured coach in the NFL (after Mike Tomlin) and respects his players and knows how to get through to them.
Total: 17
Detroit Lions
QB: 3
Just a few years ago, Jared Goff was unceremoniously dumped by the Rams and seemed fated to an eventual journeyman career. Instead, he found himself a new long-term home in Detroit, where he’s been a good fit for the offense. He isn’t asked to do too much, but he’s more than a game manager.
Weapons: 3
The Lions’ biggest playmakers — receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam LaPorta, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs — are all under 25 years old. Even better for Detroit, they could just be getting started, especially in the case of 2023 draftmates LaPorta and Gibbs.
Defense: 3
Perhaps I’m being a bit bullish on the defense, whose collapse in the NFC title game cost the Lions a shot at the Super Bowl. But overall, the unit was better than you might think last season and can make another leap if the revamped secondary works out.
New blood: 5
One of the NFL’s oldest franchises hasn’t won a championship since the 1950s, a decade before the first Super Bowl. In fact, the Lions have never even qualified for the Super Bowl, though they did come agonizingly close to doing so this past January.
Coach: 5
Dan Campbell is not the first coach to give a fiery speech and inspire everyone who heard it to say, “I’d run through a brick wall for him.” But he is now the first coach I think of whenever I hear that phrase.
Total: 19
Cincinnati Bengals
QB: 4
I’m giving Joe Burrow the benefit of the doubt that he can come back from another injury like he did three years ago. That season, he won Comeback Player of the Year honors and led the Bengals to the Super Bowl.
Weapons: 3
As long as Burrow returns to form, a healthy Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should as well. As lethal as that 1-2 punch is, the rest of the supporting class is a bit uncertain. Maybe rookie Jermaine Burton can fill the void left by Tyler Boyd, and maybe the combination of Chase Brown and Zack Moss can do the same at running back after Joe Mixon’s departure. TBD.
Defense: 3
Last season, Cincinnati’s defense took a big step back, giving up a whopping 82 plays of 20+ yards. It’s hard to imagine that Lou Anarumo’s secondary won’t improve this coming season, particularly after the veteran additions of Vonn Bell and Geno Stone at safety.
New blood: 4
On the one hand, it’s been less than 30 months since the Bengals last played in the Super Bowl, their third appearance in franchise history. On the other hand, they’ve never actually won the whole thing.
Coach: 3
I remember not being very impressed with Zac Taylor when the Bengals first hired him. He’s been a better coach than I expected him to be, though I still don’t know how good he is from a football perspective. From a human perspective, he won my respect with the way he handled the aftermath of Damar Hamlin’s injury in Cincinnati.
Total: 17
Philadelphia Eagles
QB: 4
I’m still high on Jalen Hurts even in spite of his second-half struggles last season. After all, the Tush Push continues to be legal. And with a better offensive plan that maximizes his legs — as well as cutting down on all those turnovers that he had in 2023 — Hurts can regain some of his 2022 magic.
Weapons: 4
The Eagles already had one of the NFL’s best WR duos with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Then they went out and signed Saquon Barkley, who has proven over the last two seasons that he still has plenty of burst when healthy. Add in tight end Dallas Goedert and a perennially stout OL (albeit one now without Jason Kelce), and Hurts has one of the most enviable supporting casts in the NFL.
Defense: 3
While I have concerns about Philly’s defense after a disastrous season, I think new DC Vic Fangio can whip his players into shape. Even if the defense doesn’t reach its 2022 highs, it should be far, far better than its 2023 Matt Patricia-induced lows.
New blood: 2
The Eagles have been to four Super Bowls, two of which have come in the last seven years. They only won one of those — Super Bowl 52 in February 2018 — so they’d only be somewhat of an old face.
Coach: 2
Nick Sirianni was almost fired after last season’s collapse, and he has kind of an off relationship with Hurts. But, if Jeffrey Lurie is to be believed, Sirianni has the right tools to become an all-time great coach. I remain skeptical, if open-minded, to the possibility.
Total: 15
Buffalo Bills
QB: 5
Picture Air Bud playing QB (remember, he was a receiver in the sequel). That’s Josh Allen.
Weapons: 2
Who is Allen’s top receiver right now? Khalil Shakir? Curtis Samuel? Rookie Keon Coleman? All talented, but none — at least as of now — are a true WR1. RB James Cook and TE Dalton Kincaid have flashed in their young careers, even if they have yet to put it all together.
Defense: 3
Buffalo’s defense was pretty good last season, finishing 12th in defensive DVOA. This year’s unit will look quite a bit different, however, particularly in the secondary, where the Bills had to make several cost-related cuts. I might be a little generous with this number given all the uncertainty, but the Bills have rarely fielded a bad defense in Sean McDermott’s tenure as head coach.
New blood: 4
Unlike the similarly hard-luck Lions, the Bills have actually been to the Super Bowl. In four straight years, in fact. Those, as it is well known, were all losses — and they occurred before most of the current Buffalo players were even born.
Coach: 3
I know I would be horrified if I ever had a coach who used the 9/11 terrorists as a source of motivation, but I will give McDermott some credit for 1) rallying his team to five consecutive wins and a spot in the playoffs after those comments were leaked, 2) his leadership after Hamlin’s injury, and 3) the “A” grade he received from his players.
Total: 17
Dallas Cowboys
QB: 4
Let’s ignore his postseason struggles, and his (very loud-mouthed) critics, for a minute. Dak Prescott is an upper-tier quarterback in the NFL right now. Last season, he led the league in touchdown passes (36) and EPA (106.7), and ranked second in QBR (72.7) and passer rating (105.9) despite not having a ton of weapons. He also came in second in the MVP voting. All that’s missing is that breakthrough in the playoffs, though the same could be said for a lot of non-Mahomes quarterbacks.
Weapons: 2
The Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb, one of the most dangerous receiving threats in the league. Other than that, uh … excuse me, I have to look at the roster. Oh, Jake Ferguson stood out at tight end last season. I guess 30-year-old Brandin Cooks had his moments, and Jalen Tolbert could be due for a breakout campaign. Ezekiel Elliott is also back in Dallas — a fan favorite, even if he’s now 29 and has lost a couple of steps.
Defense: 3
Although Dallas’ top-five defense lost Dan Quinn and several other key members, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence haven’t gone anywhere, nor have DaRon Bland and a hopefully healthy Trevon Diggs. Plus, Mike Zimmer returns to an NFL sideline, in the same place where his NFL career began three decades ago. Even if the defense isn’t as dominant as last season, and even if the players take time to adapt to Zimmer’s scheme, the pieces are there for it to remain a strength of the team.
New blood: 3
The Cowboys were a familiar fixture in the Super Bowl … in the 1970s and 1990s. In a 25-year span, they were a Super Bowl participant eight different times. Yet it’s been even longer — 28 years and counting — since they’ve even sniffed the NFC title game. At this point, Dallas is known more for its playoff failures than those championship heydays.
Coach: 2
I know that Mike McCarthy has a Super Bowl win on his resume, but every criticism of him as a head coach was on display in the Cowboys’ complete meltdown against Green Bay in the playoffs. He doesn’t seem like a bad guy, though, so I guess a point for that.
Total: 14
And the most boring (realistic) Super Bowl would be …
When I first started this exercise, I thought the answer would be Chiefs-49ers or Chiefs-Eagles, matchups we’ve seen in three of the last five Super Bowls. But that wasn’t the case — and, to be fair, all three of those games were thrillers.
I was half-right, though. The Chiefs indeed ended up with the lowest score in the AFC, thanks mostly to their less-regarded supporting cast and their frequent appearances in the Super Bowl recently. The NFC was represented by the Cowboys, thanks mostly to the lack of offensive firepower and less-than-inspiring coach.
I think the hype surrounding a Chiefs vs. Cowboys showdown in the Super Bowl would be out of control, and maybe the game itself would be fun. Or maybe it would unfold like their last meeting three years ago: a slogfest with too many turnovers and not enough scoring.