NFL picks for a critical Week 11
This could be a turning point for the teams just on the edge of the playoff race.
Heading into Week 11, more than one-third of the league — 12 teams, to be precise — is sitting right around .500, with four or five wins apiece.
Last year at this point, four five-win squads went on to secure a playoff berth (Bengals, Bucs, Chargers, 49ers). In 2021, two teams with four wins (49ers, Eagles) made it to the postseason, as did two others with five wins (Bengals, Raiders).
Who will join them in 2023? Well, if Joe Burrow misses any significant time with the wrist injury he sustained Thursday night against the Ravens, I don’t have much faith that the Bengals will accomplish that feat for the third straight year.
Based on the NY Times’ playoff simulator and ESPN’s FPI projections, the Saints, Texans, Chargers, and Bucs have the most hope. Still, a lot can change between now and Week 18. Step one for those teams — at least the ones not on their bye — is to focus on Week 11.
Let’s start there, with a look at this weekend’s schedule. My picks are in bold, listed with the odds as of Thursday night:
Cowboys at Panthers (+10.5)
Raiders at Dolphins (-13)
Bears at Lions (-7.5)
Cardinals at Texans (-5)
Giants at Commanders (-8.5)
Steelers at Browns (-1.5)
Titans at Jaguars (-7)
Chargers at Packers (+3)
Buccaneers at 49ers (-12)
Jets at Bills (-7)
Seahawks at Rams (+1)
Vikings at Broncos (-2)
Eagles at Chiefs (-2.5)
I was barely over .500 with my picks last week, so please do yourself a favor and get a second opinion from Christian’s FTW column. For my own ego, I’m hoping to avoid another subpar week, but it’s a much more critical point for the teams that are actually playing.
The “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?” matchups
Several four- and five-win teams have a decent shot at obtaining what they want — unlike Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber. But before they can think ahead to the postseason, they first need a win on Sunday.
Texans over Cardinals
Two weeks ago, this might have been a gimme win for the Texans. But now the Cardinals have Kyler Murray back, and based on his physics-defying heroics in Week 10, he is fully recovered from his ACL tear. Murray, a Texas native, has never lost an NFL game in his home state. He’s even perfect in AT&T Stadium throughout his entire football-playing career.
The Texans, of course, do not play at AT&T Stadium. Murray’s only game against Houston came two years ago in Arizona. The Cardinals cruised to a win in a season when they went 11-6 and the Texans stumbled to 4-13 with Davis Mills at quarterback. These are two vastly different teams two years later: the Cards have one of the worst records in the league, while the Texans would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, thanks in large part to rookie sensation C.J. Stroud.
Stroud and the offense can continue to light it up Sunday, but the defense might have its hands full trying to slow down Murray, especially without second-leading tackler Denzel Perryman. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is familiar with Murray, though, from his days as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator, so Houston should be able to rise to the occasion and stay in the postseason hunt.
Commanders over Giants
The Giants beat the Commanders last month for their second win of the season — and maybe final, unless backup Tyrod Taylor returns. For now, the Giants keep rolling with undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito, who is averaging just 4.8 yards per throw and has been sacked 13 times in three games. He also has the worst dream dinner guest list I have ever seen.
I normally don’t have a ton of confidence in the Commanders, but they should win their rematch against the Giants fairly easily and improve to .500. In turn, their playoff chances will jump to a whopping 7 percent!
Chargers over Packers
Last week, the Chargers became the first NFL team to lose after scoring a touchdown on every possession in the final 40 minutes of a game. It was also the 13th time they’ve lost by three points or fewer in the Justin Herbert era.
That all sounds on brand for them, but if there’s a silver lining for LA, it’s this: the Lions are one of the top teams in the NFL this season, and the Packers are not. The Chargers are also not out of the playoff race by any means, though their best bet is to win at least six of the remaining eight contests. That’s doable, so long as they don’t drop one they shouldn’t, like their matchup in Green Bay. I’m giving the Chargers the benefit of the doubt here because, with the exception of a Week 2 loss to the Titans, they almost always handle their business against inferior opponents.
Bills over Jets
As it turns out, the Bills’ collapse against the Jets in Week 1 was a harbinger of things to come. On a much-too-regular basis this season, Buffalo’s offense can’t get out of its own way, Buffalo’s defense can’t get a stop when it needs to, and Sean McDermott is somehow getting worse at coaching. I wasn’t really worried about their postseason hopes until last week’s loss to the Broncos.
Meanwhile, the Jets are more or less reliving their 2022 season, when they are sometimes competitive and sometimes an embarrassment; when every week Robert Saleh is forced to defend Zach Wilson; when the defensive players do their best not to point fingers at the offense, but we all know that’s what’s holding the Jets back.
In any given week, these two teams are as capable of flopping as they are of putting together a victory. But only one of them has proven it can score at least 32 points in a single game, which is why I’m taking the Bills. A win won’t resuscitate their suddenly shaky playoff odds, or get Ken Dorsey his job back, but it could be a jumping-off point for the Bills to finish the season strong.
Broncos over Vikings
Well, well, well, look who we have here. After the first month of the season, we were all ready to stick a fork in the Broncos and Vikings. Now, they’re two of the hottest teams in the NFL. Minnesota is riding a league-high five-game winning streak into Sunday night. Denver is not far behind with three straight victories, including statement wins over the Chiefs and Bills.
The Broncos’ game plan was similar in those upsets: the defense forced a lot of turnovers, and the offense capitalized off of them with an efficient performance. The Vikings have done a much better job lately than they did earlier in the season of taking care of the football, but Joshua Dobbs leads the NFL in fumbles this season with 11 (eight of which came when he was with the Cardinals).
The Broncos can work their magic once again and reach .500 for the first time all season. They’d still be a long shot to make the playoffs — and the Vikings would still have very good odds with a loss — but that’s an impressive turnaround nonetheless.
The “What are my chances? Not good” matchups
And like Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber, the odds are long on these games for a reason.
Cowboys over Panthers
Poor Bryce Young. His rookie season has been a slog, and his head coach’s flip-flopping about who is calling plays can’t be helping.
You know what else won’t help? His offensive line trying to fend off the Dallas pass rush. Young has been sacked 29 times in eight games already this year, and the Cowboys rank No. 1 in the league in pass rush win rate.
Dolphins over Raiders
The Raiders are clearly better off without Josh McDaniels, a declaration I would make even if they weren’t 2-0 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Those two wins, though, came against the Giants and Jets and their moribund offenses.
The Dolphins’ offense is more on par with the Bills’ and Lions’, who both erupted for 450+ yards against Vegas this season. The Raiders just don’t have the makeup to get in a track meet in Miami and should fall below .500 again.
Lions over Bears
Justin Fields returns to the lineup this week, and it’s a little unfair for him that he’s healthy again in time to meet the Lions when, in his absence, the Bears played winnable games against the Raiders (pre-McDaniels’ firing) and Panthers.
Alas, that’s the kind of bad luck that has defined Fields’ career so far. While Montez Sweat has provided a much-needed upgrade to Chicago’s pass rush, the Bears don’t have the talent on either side to have much hope in pulling off the upset.
Jaguars over Titans
As overwhelmed as the Jaguars looked last week against the 49ers, they’re still in good shape at the moment. They’re all alone atop the AFC South and can improve their divisional record to 3-1 with a win over the visiting Titans.
I think Jacksonville will bounce back this week against a Tennessee team that is winless on the road this year. The Jags have a healthy perspective about their loss to the Niners and know they can’t take the Titans lightly, particularly when they have a difficult stretch of games coming up soon.
49ers over Buccaneers
Well, I think that week off “fixed” the 49ers. After their bye, they looked like a Super Bowl contender again in a rout over the Jaguars. They also enjoyed a boost from the return of key players (Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams) and the addition of another (Chase Young).
The Bucs have a manageable schedule after this week and will have a shot at another NFC South title, win or lose. But it’ll almost certainly be “lose.”
The “just flip a coin” picks
On the menu this week: two hated rivalries and a Super Bowl rematch. Spicy!
Rams over Seahawks
Although the Seahawks are 6-3, they haven’t looked all that dominant. Sometimes, they’re the ones getting dominated — like in Week 1 against the Rams.
The Rams tend to play the Seahawks tough. Even last season when Seattle swept the series, LA lost both games by a total of seven points. And that was with John Wolford and Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Matthew Stafford, who has never lost to the Seahawks in a Rams uniform, will be back this weekend. I think he can get the Rams back in the winning column and prevent the Seahawks from keeping pace with the 49ers at the top of the NFC West.
Browns over Steelers
I’m taking a little bit of a risk here, considering two factors: 1) rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start for Cleveland and 2) the Steelers are the NFL equivalent of the “he can’t keep getting away with it” Jesse Pinkman meme.
I liked DTR in college and in the preseason, and I believe he won’t look nearly as overmatched in his second start as he was in his first. That time, the coaching staff didn’t tell him he’d be playing until hours before … against the Ravens’ nasty defense, no less. This time, he’s much more prepared. The Browns have beaten better teams than the Steelers with terrible quarterback play this season, and they should have beaten the Steelers when they first met this season — and maybe they would have if Deshaun Watson hadn’t gift-wrapped two touchdowns to the Pittsburgh defense.
I know better than to count out the Steelers, who keep finding ways to win even if they benefit from a couple of lucky breaks. But it’s redemption time for the Browns: to avenge their previous loss to Pittsburgh and for DTR to prove that his first start wasn’t indicative of the kind of NFL quarterback he can be.
Chiefs over Eagles
It’s been just over nine months since the Chiefs and Eagles faced off in the Super Bowl. Some things haven’t changed much at all — they’re still two of the best teams in the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are MVP candidates.
But this isn’t exactly a Super Bowl 57 repeat, even if the ratings will be astronomical. For one, Kansas City’s defense has taken a big step forward this year. For two, Hurts has an even stronger supporting cast this season (the temporary loss of Dallas Goedert hurts, however, no pun intended).
History might be on Philly’s side, but I’m going with the Chiefs for two reasons. First, this primetime clash is at Arrowhead Stadium. Second, while the Eagles might be 8-1, I don’t know that they’ve played a complete game this year, when all sides are working together as a cohesive unit. There’s still plenty of time for the Eagles to hit their stride, but I don’t think we’ve seen it yet and I don’t think we will on Monday night either.