NFL picks for an opportunistic Week 10

The award races are starting to kick into high gear.

Most of the NFL awards will be decided between now and the end of the season. I say “most” and not “all” because Damar Hamlin has been a shoo-in, and rightfully so, for Comeback Player of the Year as soon as the season began.

Three of the four teams that have their bye this week are the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Eagles. They all have an MVP candidate at quarterback, along with a couple of contenders for other awards. That gives their competition a chance to stand out in Week 10.

Before we discuss who can make a push for which awards, let’s first take a look at this weekend’s schedule. There are several decent matchups scattered in there, bookended by a few stinkers (kinda like the Bears-Panthers game on TNF but hopefully not as dire). My picks are in bold, listed with the odds as of Thursday night:

Colts “at” Patriots (+2)

Texans at Bengals (-6.5)

49ers at Jaguars (+3)

Browns at Ravens (-6.5)

Packers at Steelers (-3)

Saints at Vikings (+3)

Titans at Buccaneers (-1)

Falcons at Cardinals (+2)

Lions at Chargers (+3)

Giants at Cowboys (-17)

Commanders at Seahawks (-6.5)

Jets at Raiders (+1)

Broncos at Bills (-7)

Yep, the morning and primetime contests are rancid, as Christian noted in his picks post at FTW. The NFL could have flexed Jets vs. Raiders out of the Sunday Night Football slot, but for some reason decided to punish the fans instead.

Luckily, there are better games and storylines to follow on Sunday.

Award candidate vs. award candidate showdown

In each matchup below, both sides have a player with a realistic shot at winning one of the league’s major awards.

Bengals over Texans

After what we witnessed last week from C.J. Stroud, I don’t think we can count out the Texans in any of their remaining games this year. But their trip to Cincinnati against the red-hot Bengals is their toughest matchup left. 

Stroud may have already sewn up Offensive Rookie of the Year honors after his record-setting day, while a healthy Joe Burrow has seen his MVP odds increase each week during the Bengals’ four-game winning streak. If Stroud had a vote, Burrow might just be the winner.

One potential roadblock to Burrow’s MVP candidacy this week is the status of his top receivers. Ja’Marr Chase is dealing with a sore back (which Cris Collinsworth warned us about as soon as it happened), and Tee Higgins is likely out with a hamstring injury. Even still, Cincy’s defense has been locked in recently and has already proven it can carry the load when the offense isn’t at full strength.

49ers over Jaguars

Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa has the fourth-best odds to take home the award again, but he’s also a ways behind the frontrunners. Perhaps pairing him up with former college teammate Chase Young will free up Bosa more and let him go on a tear in the second half. The Niners will need both pass rushers to pressure Trevor Lawrence, an MVP candidate with slightly longer odds than others, to disrupt his rhythm.

The 49ers’ best bet at individual hardware is Christian McCaffrey earning the Offensive Player of the Year Award. McCaffrey currently ranks No. 1 in the NFL in both rushing yards and touchdowns, and he could be getting a key blocker — left tackle Trent Williams — back this week. Williams’ presence would be most welcome against a stout Jaguars defense that is only giving up 3.6 yards per carry, fourth-fewest in the NFL. 

In the end, I think San Francisco’s star players will make the difference and hand the 49ers their first win since Week 5 and hand the Jags their first loss since Week 3.

Ravens over Browns

If the season ended today, Lamar Jackson would be my MVP pick. His stats aren’t always eye-popping, but they also don’t tell the whole story. Because when you watch Jackson, you can see how expertly he runs the show in Baltimore and how special he truly is. 

Jackson already dunked all over the Browns earlier this season, even without a couple of receivers and starting linemen. Cleveland was also short-handed on offense, and rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was overwhelmed in his first start. Not that I can blame him since he was thrown into the fire against the Ravens’ nasty defense. Myles Garrett, one of the Defensive Player of the Year co-leaders at the moment, harassed Jackson to the tune of three QB hits and a sack in their first meeting — and it didn’t make much of a difference in the outcome of the game. We very well could see a similar narrative play out in the rematch, though Jackson will have extra bragging rights when it’s done. 

A one-man showcase

This section is devoted to the games in which only one team has a player or coach in the running for an award.

Steelers over Packers

T.J. Watt, another Defensive Player of the Year hopeful, has only gone sack-less in one game this season: in a win over against the Rams, though he did have an interception that led to a touchdown. Watt will probably acquaint himself with Jordan Love very quickly on Sunday, and the Steelers should inch ever closer to another winning season under Mike Tomlin. 

I should note that Tomlin has never won AP Coach of the Year, but that could change if he drags this mostly unwatchable team into the playoffs.

Lions over Chargers

The Chargers have made it back to .500 after a rough start to the year, which takes a little heat off coach Brandon Staley for now. Unfortunately for them, the Lions are coming to town with Coach of the Year candidate Dan Campbell at the helm.

Although LA’s defense is healthier and has put together two straight strong outings, those games came against the Bears (led by rookie UDFA QB Tyson Bagent) and the Jets. The Lions’ offense is on the complete other spectrum — except in the red zone, where both Detroit’s offense and defense have struggled.

After a bye week that gave the coaching staff a chance to work out some kinks, I believe the Lions can find more success in the red zone this week.

Cowboys over Giants

The Cowboys feasted on their NY rivals all the way back in Week 1, when the Giants were actually healthy — which they definitely aren’t now. This is a golden opportunity for Micah Parsons to gain ground on his Defensive Player of the Year competition Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt, who have two more sacks than Parsons right now.

Sacks are not the be-all, end-all of stats, for both an individual pass rusher and the defense as a whole. Still, more sacks is never a bad thing for them. The Giants have surrendered an NFL-high 49 sacks this year. Undrafted rookie QB Tommy DeVito, who is getting his first start and will help set an NFL record in the process, has already been sacked eight times in limited action. Parsons is coming off an admirable performance — a game-high 1.5 sacks and 3 QB hits — in a loss to the Eagles. I expect domination this week, from Parsons and the Cowboys in general.

Seahawks over Commanders

The Seahawks need a bounce-back game in the worst of ways after getting shellacked by the Ravens last Sunday. This week, they face a Commanders team fresh off a win over the Patriots, which isn’t so impressive these days. 

Sam Howell has now thrown for more than 300 yards in consecutive weeks — and he also leads the league in interceptions and sacks taken. That gives Seattle first-round pick Devon Witherspoon a chance to add to his Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign. The cornerback has one pick and two sacks so far in his career, all of which came in October, when he was named Rookie of the Month on defense. He has excelled both in the slot and on the outside, allowing a mere 5.4 yards per target. Another big outing from him — and more “splash” plays to add to his rookie-high 16 — will only help his cause. And I think Witherspoon will star on Sunday in a Seahawks win.

Bills over Broncos

The Broncos, once on pace to have the worst defense in NFL history, have turned a corner on that side of the ball. In fact, in the past month, Denver’s defense has been better than Buffalo’s. 

The last time we saw the Broncos, they were shutting down Patrick Mahomes. Next up, they’ll try to do the same to another MVP candidate, Josh Allen. Though Allen has been a little hot and cold this season, he’s not the main reason his team has been so inconsistent (blame injuries and a lack of playmakers outside of Allen and Stefon Diggs). It’s not out of the question that the Bills, like the Chiefs two weeks ago, can’t get out of their own way and implode against the Broncos. However, Allen and the Bills know that at 5-4, they can’t afford to lose winnable games from here on out. I expect them to play like they’re on a mission in front of a rowdy home crowd on Monday night.

The “just flip a coin” picks

I don’t know why I didn’t call for any upsets this week, but surely there will be some — and probably at least one from this group.

Colts over Patriots

The good news for the Patriots is that they haven’t been blown out in a month, and Mac Jones hasn’t thrown a pick-six in that time. The bad news is that Jones still leads the league in pick-sixes this season with three, and next he’ll encounter Kenny Moore II, who recorded two of them a week ago. 

The Colts have, at times, looked like a solid team, while the Patriots are staring down their first top-five pick in 30 years. I’m still not convinced that the Pats are as awful as their record, and they could step up their game on Sunday for all their German fans. I’m also not convinced they can limit enough big plays, or create ones of their own, to leave Europe with a victory.

Saints over Vikings

Joshua Dobbs has been one of the greatest stories of this NFL season, and now that he’s no longer with the Cardinals, he has an actual defense complementing him on the other side of the ball. 

The Saints have been tough to figure out all season, and they’re still working through their chemistry issues on offense. The New Orleans defense is legit, however. With so many of Minnesota’s weapons injured, I’m taking the Saints, but I’m also familiar enough with this rivalry to know better than to outright dismiss the Vikings.

Buccaneers over Titans 

The Bucs just gave up five touchdown passes last week to a rookie quarterback and now face another, Will Levis, who threw four TDs of his own in his debut a couple of weeks ago. Levis will assuredly take downfield shots, probably mostly to DeAndre Hopkins, and connect on some of those passes. But based on his college tape, he’s much more prone to turning the ball over than C.J. Stroud.

Baker Mayfield can march his offense down the field too, and he’s doing a good job of taking care of the ball. His interception percentage is currently a career-low 1.4. If this contest comes down to the turnover battle, I like Tampa.

Falcons over Cardinals

Kyler Murray is back for the first time in 11 months, and I don’t think anyone knows what to expect from the once-dynamic quarterback after his ACL injury. Considering that Atlanta’s defense was punked, in back-to-back weeks, by a rookie QB in his first ever game and another QB who had joined his new team only days prior, I have a feeling Murray will look pretty good. I can’t say the same for Arizona’s defense, though, which ranks second-to-last in DVOA.

Honestly, I might just keep picking the Falcons until they finally get another W because I know if I were to side against them, they’d spite me and win. 

Jets over Raiders

In Week 9, the Raiders looked rejuvenated as they ushered in the post-Josh McDaniels era with a win. One day later, the Jets looked like, well, the Raiders when McDaniels was their coach. 

The Raiders could absolutely keep their momentum going, but I’m curious to see how rookie Aidan O'Connell handles all the pressure the Jets throw at him. And while I’m not anticipating a stellar performance from Zach Wilson or anything, the Vegas defense doesn’t have anyone besides Maxx Crosby who can get after the quarterback. Not that Crosby couldn’t single-handedly take over the game.

I don’t feel great about this pick, but the Jets — even Wilson! — have had some surprising moments of competency this season. Maybe it’ll happen again this week.