NFL picks for a compelling Conference Championship Round
A rematch in the Super Bowl awaits us, no matter who wins this Sunday.
In last week’s Divisional Round, three of the four games were rematches from earlier in the regular season. The good news is that neither the Chiefs and Ravens, nor the Lions and 49ers, faced off in 2023. Coincidentally, the last time they played each other was in September 2021.
The bad news is that the Super Bowl is guaranteed to be a rematch of some sort. The Ravens beat both the Lions and 49ers this season. The Lions topped the Chiefs in Week 1. And, even though the 49ers and Chiefs did not meet in 2023, they did square off in a recent Super Bowl.
So, which rematch will we see in Las Vegas in just over two weeks? Ever since Christmas, I’ve had the feeling that we were barreling toward Ravens vs. 49ers: Part 2. While no outcome this weekend would surprise me, I’m sticking with my original prediction. I’ll even put the picks in bold like I usually do, and list the odds, for all the readers who are just scrolling through:
Chiefs at Ravens (-4)
Lions at 49ers (-7.5)
After a terrible showing in the Wild Card Round, I bounced back with a perfect 4-0 Divisional Round. Based on the law of averages, I should probably expect to go 1-1 over Conference Championship Weekend, which is how I will finish if Christian is correct with his picks.
But I do have legitimate reasons for taking the Ravens and 49ers on Sunday — and not because I thought we’ve been heading in that direction for weeks.
Ravens over Chiefs
One week after another epic edition of the ongoing Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen QB duel, Mahomes will battle a different MVP finalist. Lamar Jackson and Mahomes have gone up against each other four times in their career. The Chiefs are 3-1 in those matchups, three of which were decided by one score. However, the Ravens’ lone win came in their most recent clash back in 2021.
Three reasons I think the Ravens will win
1. Lamar Jackson is locked in.
As I said in my previous newsletter, Jackson is a man on a mission this season. He must agree, because earlier this week, he told reporters that “the mission isn’t complete.”
But don’t think that Jackson will be caught looking ahead. He knows that the Ravens have to focus on what’s immediately ahead of them. This week, that just so happens to be the defending Super Bowl champs.
That’s a challenge for Baltimore, but Jackson himself is a problem for any defense.
Let’s take a look at his stats since the start of December, a span which includes four regular season games against three playoff teams (Rams, 49ers, and Dolphins, plus the Jags) and a postseason win over the Texans. In that time, Jackson has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 242.4 yards per game, thrown 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions, and posted a passer rating of 115.7. On the ground, he has averaged 69.4 yards per outing, with two rushing touchdowns and zero fumbles to add to his total.
For the most part, those numbers are higher than his already-good season averages. Or, in other words, as the stakes have gotten higher and the competition has gotten stiffer, the MVP favorite has played even better.
Last weekend, the Texans and Ravens were tied going into halftime. After a few adjustments, Jackson was practically unstoppable in the second half. He only had two incompletions as he led three straight touchdown drives — in which he accounted for all three TDs, either as a runner (2) or passer (1) — to put the game away. On the day, Jackson ran for 100 yards, vaulting into the top five in postseason rushing yards for a quarterback.
One player who ranks ahead of him in that category is Josh Allen, who carried the ball 12 times for a team-high 72 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Kansas City’s formidable defense was missing a couple of starters in the second half, most notably linebacker Willie Gay, who was tasked with spying on Allen. If Gay’s neck injury keeps him out on Sunday, or limits him in any way, who the heck is going to slow down Jackson?
That’ll especially be the case if Jackson’s favorite target, Mark Andrews, returns to the field. With the hot streak that Isaiah Likely is on, the Ravens could bust out the two-tight end sets more often. On the rare occasions that both Likely and Andrews have played together this season, Jackson has feasted against defenses. Well, even more than he usually does.
2. Baltimore’s defense is on a historic pace.
The Ravens finished the regular season with the No. 1 ranking in overall team DVOA, defensive DVOA, and pass defense DVOA. That is impressive in itself, but when you look at weighted DVOA, which gives more importance to more recent games, then you can really see how great this defense is.
Including the win over the Texans, Baltimore’s defense is on pace to be the best ever in weighted DVOA. It currently ranks higher than the vaunted 1985 Bears defense, at least through the Divisional Round.
Another team in the top five was the 2020 Bills … who fell to Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game. I’m not sure how comparable the situations are, though. The Bills didn’t have anyone who could stop Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce. Hill is no longer in Kansas City, while the Ravens’ top-rated pass defense has All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton and could be getting Marlon Humphrey back.
On top of that, Mahomes’ offensive line was struggling, with both injuries and performance, at the end of that 2020 season. Although that Buffalo defense — which ranked in the middle of the league in sacks — took Mahomes down just once, he was pressured constantly in the Super Bowl by the Bucs’ better pass rush. Fast forward to today, and Mahomes’ offensive line, which is one of the weakest he’s ever had in Kansas City, will probably be without its top player, guard Joe Thuney. He’ll also be staring across from a defense that racked up the most sacks (60) this season, and did so without blitzing much.
To me, this doesn’t feel like 2020 Bills vs. Chiefs, but rather it’s more like 2020 Bucs vs. Chiefs. Except, I think the 2023 Ravens are better than even that year’s Super Bowl champions.
3. The Ravens have demolished good opponents all season.
Baltimore has lost four games this year and one of those came in the final week of the regular season when they rested most of their starters. In those other three losses, none of which happened after Week 10, the Ravens came up short by a combined 12 points.
So they don’t lose often or by many points. Their wins are a completely different story. In their seven victories against playoff teams, the Ravens won by an average of 22 points. On nine occasions, they beat a team that finished above .500 by double digits.
They have been, by far, the most complete team in the NFL this season. The Ravens aren’t inevitable, but they’d have to make several mistakes, and their opponent would need to engineer some heroics of their own, to lose again. While that’s certainly possible, I’m not banking on it.
The best hope for the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, duh
One of the reasons I picked the Chiefs last week is because I said I couldn’t bet against Mahomes … which is what I’m doing this week, perhaps foolishly. In the past, Mahomes has played great against the Ravens (his averages include 370 yards per game and a 119.1 passer rating). Despite a somewhat rocky season, Mahomes has put KC on his back during the playoffs, as you might expect from a generational talent who collected two NFL MVP and two Super Bowl MVP awards before his 28th birthday.
Mahomes simply doesn’t get rattled. If anyone can make this Ravens defense look mortal, it’d be him. I’m just not sure the rest of his teammates are up for the challenge.
49ers over Lions
If the Lions are going to win their first championship since 1957, they’ll have to go through San Francisco, just like they did 66 years ago. That was the last time the Lions won a playoff contest on the road, a losing streak that currently sits at 11 games.
That was also the first of only two times these teams have met in the postseason. The second time came 40 years ago when Joe Montana led a late touchdown drive and Detroit kicker Eddie Murray (not to be confused with the MLB Hall of Famer) missed a potential game-winning field goal.
More recently, the Lions and 49ers played in Week 1 of the 2021 season, which was Dan Campbell’s first game as Detroit’s head coach. The heavily favored 49ers raced out to a 38-10 lead and then had to hold on for a 41-33 win.
Three reasons I think the 49ers will win
1. The weather in Santa Clara will be much more pleasant than it was a week ago.
The rainy conditions at Levi’s Stadium caused all kinds of problems for the 49ers last Saturday. Brock Purdy couldn’t properly grip the ball and had accuracy issues all evening, leading to his worst outing since his four-interception nightmare against the Ravens. His receivers (as well as a couple of Packers defenders) couldn’t hold on to his passes. A few defenders slipped on the wet grass, and those missed tackles turned into first downs (or touchdowns) for Green Bay.
Fortunately for the players, the forecast this Sunday calls for warmer and dry weather. In theory, that should help both teams equally, but I think last week served as a proper scare for the Niners and they’ll be less inclined to have a letdown. If anything, their comeback win gave them more confidence. The 49ers now know that when everything isn’t going their way, they can still band together and do whatever it takes to get the victory.
2. San Francisco’s defense can disrupt Jared Goff.
Admittedly, the Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Right tackle Penei Sewell earned All-Pro honors this year, and rightfully so. Center Frank Ragnow is a warrior, while Taylor Decker is a mainstay at left tackle.
But, they will be missing one key player — left guard Jonah Jackson — which presents an opportunity for Nick Bosa and Company. Kayode Awosika, who took over for the injured Jackson in the second quarter against Tampa, allowed seven pressures on 28 passing plays. If San Francisco’s pass rush can get to Jared Goff, even if they don’t sack him, they can force him into making mistakes. That’s what happened last week with Jordan Love, who wasn’t sacked but was picked off twice in the same game for the first time since November.
Goff likes to throw to the middle of the field, but Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw defending that area will make things more difficult for the quarterback. No one knows that more than Goff, who has thrown pick-sixes to both of those linebackers before.
How can the Niners do it again? To paraphrase what Bosa told the media, the best way to neutralize Goff is to get him off schedule. That means bringing the pressure, and more specifically, they need “quick pressure” from the interior defenders, who can take advantage of a banged-up Ragnow and the absence of Jackson.
3. The Lions’ secondary will have their hands full.
Last week, Purdy clearly missed Deebo Samuel, who left early with a shoulder injury and whose status on Sunday is still a question mark. In a positive sign, Samuel returned to practice on Thursday.
But if Samuel is unable to go against the Lions, Kyle Shanahan will have had time to prepare for that possibility, rather than try to adjust without him on the fly like the Niners had to do in the Divisional Round.
Whether Samuel plays or not, SF’s offense is loaded with playmakers who are a threat to score any time the ball touches their hands, such as Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings. Considering that the Lions’ most glaring weakness is their secondary, that’s uh, a daunting undertaking.
The Lions have surrendered at least 140 receiving yards to one receiver in five straight games, including the playoffs. Last week, it was Mike Evans (8 catches, 147 yards). In the Wild Card Round, it was Puka Nacua (9 catches, 181 yards). Luckily for Detroit, the offense was able to do its part and counteract those huge performances. However, if you look at the Lions’ five losses, more than one receiver has gone off against the secondary. Most recently, CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks combined for 18 catches, 287 yards, and two touchdowns in Dallas.
Unless the 49ers run out of healthy quarterbacks for the second straight NFC title game, at least one of Purdy’s targets is practically guaranteed to put up big-time stats against Detroit. Most likely, it’ll be more than one player, though.
The best hope for the Lions: Their run game
Like I said last week, offenses can run on San Francisco’s defense, just as Aaron Jones (18 carries for 108 yards) did. Collectively, the Lions didn’t produce gaudy rushing numbers against a much more stout Tampa run defense, but they were effective on the ground. Rookie sensation Jahmyr Gibbs averaged a whopping 8.2 yards per carry and had All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. in hell on a 31-yard rushing touchdown. On fourth-and-goal in a tie game, Craig Reynolds burst through the end zone for the score, his first carry since October.
David Montgomery wasn’t as successful against the Bucs, but he did average 2.3 yards after contact his season, which ranked third among rushers in the league.
Montgomery could help on short-yardage runs, where the 49ers are vulnerable. Yet you should expect to see a heavy dose of Gibbs, who is tough to tackle in space and who can, like Jones last week, gain a lot of yards on the outside.
That might not be enough for the Lions to earn their first ever trip to a Super Bowl, but I think their ground attack can at least keep the Lions competitive. And if it’s close late in the game, then who knows what could happen. Hopefully for Detroit’s sake, it’s not another missed kick at the end like the Lions’ last postseason trip in San Francisco.