The trends from the 2023 NFL Draft that could be here to stay
Not every trend we saw will pop up in next year's draft, however.
By and large, I thought GMs across the league did a great job over the weekend. I’m not the only one either, as evidenced by the number of “A’s” handed out in every major outlet’s post-draft grades article.
While there was no haul that I actively hated, I didn’t particularly like what the 49ers and Dolphins did. The Niners didn’t have any selections until the third round, when they decided to take safety Ji'Ayir Brown (good pick!), tight end Cameron Latu (totally fine!) … and kicker Jake Moody (a kicker, in the third round. Just no). A couple weeks ago, I singled out offensive tackle as the one position they had to target in the draft, and even with nine picks, they managed to completely ignore my advice. Rude!
The Dolphins didn’t, but they did wait until the seventh round to finally grab an offensive lineman. With only four total selections, the Dolphins should have shown a little more urgency to shore up actual weaknesses rather than add another cornerback and small but speedy running back. Then again, Cam Smith and Devon Achane are talented players who will undoubtedly make the team better. Neither will be blocking for the oft-injured Tua Tagovailoa, though.
The Lions were a Day 1 loser in my book after overdrafting at two positions (running back, off-the-ball linebacker) that aren’t as valuable in today’s NFL. I changed my mind a bit once Day 2 came around and they somehow landed three players — TE Sam LaPorta, S Brian Branch, and QB Hendon Hooker — who were all potential first-round picks. Bad process, good result, I guess.
Maybe the Lions started a trend and more teams will Mr. Magoo their way into a decent draft haul. Who knows?
Speaking of trends, I noticed a few that kept popping up throughout the three days of the draft. In my final draft-related newsletter of 2023, I decided to take a closer look at them, as well as weigh in on whether those trends will likely continue in future drafts.
Trend: Trades and more trades
When I first started covering the NFL Draft about a decade ago, I was one of several people who would take turns updating a picks tracker. After every selection was made, we’d add the player, the pick number, the team he was drafted to, and his position to a spreadsheet and then update it on the website. As you can imagine, that got to be pretty hectic by Day 3, when the announcements always come fast and furious. On top of that, we had to keep track of any trades and update the spreadsheet accordingly. By Saturday night, I was a cross-eyed zombie who could only speak in “fire bad, tree pretty” type of sentences.
So I do not envy anyone who was tasked with keeping up with every single transaction in this year’s draft. There were a record number of trades over the weekend — 43 to be exact, three more than the previous high from 2019.
Wheeling and dealing is a part of any draft, but I don’t think we’ll see a new record next year. I believe the main reason this draft was so trade-happy was this class as a whole wasn’t widely regarded. Without as many top-rated prospects, perhaps front offices were more willing to move around the draft board and not worry about potentially missing out on a future superstar. That won’t be the case every year.
Surprising to me is that only two current NFL players were dealt this weekend. The first was D’Andre Swift, who became the approximately 47th former Georgia Bulldog to join the Eagles. His time with the Lions was clearly running out once they drafted running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round.
The second was tight end Adam Trautman, who wanted a change of scenery and a chance to do more than just block. The Saints granted him his trade request, and he’s been reunited with Sean Payton in Denver.
Those moves were a little underwhelming to me because I was expecting DeAndre Hopkins, at the very least, to end up on a new team. Somehow, he’s still with the Cardinals — for now.
Trend: It’s a family affair
Bloodlines run deep in the NFL, where there’s a rich history of brothers playing in the league, cousins, fathers and sons, uncles and nephews, and even grandfathers and grandsons. This year, even more familial connections were added to the list, most notably between fathers and sons.
First, the Cardinals elevated their offensive line with Paris Johnson Jr., much to the delight of his new BFF, Kyler Murray. The tackle was drafted 24 years after his father, who was also drafted by the Cardinals but lasted just one season. Johnson Jr. said he wanted to “finish what my dad started,” and he’ll get to do so in a very familiar uniform, in more ways than one.
If Murray isn’t ready for the start of the season, there’s a chance Johnson Jr. will be blocking for fellow rookie Clayton Tune, who is also a Cardinals legacy of sorts. Tune’s great-great uncle was the franchise’s first draft pick, all the way back in 1936.
On Day 2 of the draft, the Steelers were on the clock first and they selected a player who had been heavily mocked to them in the first round: Joey Porter Jr. The cornerback spent a lot of time on Pittsburgh’s sideline as a kid when his dad played for and then coached for the Steelers.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have been a close-knit team, but they’ve had an affinity for siblings in recent years. A year ago, Connor Heyward joined his older brother, Cameron (sons of the late “Ironhead” Heyward) on the roster. This year, Pittsburgh added linebacker Nick Herbig in the fourth round (another great value pick) after signing his big bro, Nate, in free agency.
The most moving father-son moment came in the sixth round, when Cowboys scout Chris Vaughn had the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to tell his son that he was getting drafted … by the same team Chris works for:
https://twitter.com/dallascowboys/status/1652465564231561217?s=20
Deuce Vaughn was a ton of fun to watch at Kansas State — most notably his electric 130-yard performance against TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game — but he’s only 5’5 and 179 yards, which could limit his production in the NFL. Still, he left his mark in college football and can do the same in Dallas, if the Cowboys can find ways to use him.
Judging by the number of “Jr.” recruits and college players there are nowadays, this family ties trend will only grow. Per ESPN, the percentage of second-generation players in the league jumped to 3.4% in 2021 (it was 1.8% in 2001).
Next year’s draft will feature at least one more: the much-celebrated Marvin Harrison Jr., who is already penciled in as a top-five pick (maybe even top-two) in 2024. So the Colts will have to be preeeeeetty bad in 2023 if they want to bring Route Man Marv back to his dad’s old stomping grounds.
Trend: Trying to find a Day 3 QB gem
There wasn’t much debate about who the top quarterbacks in this draft were, even if there wasn’t a consensus on which order they should be ranked: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis. Sometimes Hendon Hooker would sneak his way into the conversation too.
The first four were supposed to be taken early, while Hooker was a possible, if unlikely, first-round candidate. And that’s exactly how this draft began: Young, Stroud, and Richardson were off the board within the first four selections, only the fourth time three QBs have been drafted that quickly (and the second time since 2021). All three landed in good spots — Young and Stroud, in particular, will probably be ready to start in Week 1.
But Levis kept waiting, and waiting, and waiting to hear his name called. It got super-awkward, as it does every year when a camera is glued to a player who falls further than he was projected to go. Eventually, Levis went to the Titans (not a surprise) in the second round (a surprise). Hooker went to the Lions in the next round, another pairing that makes a lot of sense. Neither will be expected to start as rookies, but if they do, or if they show enough promise, both teams can move on from their veteran quarterbacks (Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff) easily next year.
Those were the only five quarterbacks drafted in the first two days, which is what you’d predict from a class that was solid but not spectacular. However, the real action began on Day 3, when suddenly the QBs were flying off the shelves: three in the fourth round, four in the fifth round, one each in the sixth and seven rounds. I didn’t think several of them would even be drafted, and instead, this group set records for the most quarterbacks selected in the first 150 picks (11) and the most quarterbacks (12) selected in the first five rounds:
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1652387421491789825
Some are calling it the “Brock Purdy effect,” after the 2022 Mr. Irrelevant was thrust into the 49ers’ lineup late last year and guided them all the way to the NFC title game. After all, Purdy was a competent, experienced college quarterback, as were many of the mid-to-late round passers this year (Stetson Bennett, Jaren Hall, Max Duggan).
I think it’s a little too simplistic to credit Purdy’s performance for the run on QBs, though. I mean, it’s been 23 years since Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick. If he didn’t start a trend, then why would Purdy, who has started fewer games and didn’t win a Super Bowl like Brady when he Wally Pipped Drew Bledsoe all those years ago?
But Purdy may have, even inadvertently, played a part in teams looking for cheap insurance under center. Three teams in the playoffs — the 49ers, Dolphins, and Ravens — were forced to start backups in the postseason due to injuries. The Niners and Dolphins had to turn to a third-string late-round rookie. Those situations served as yet another reminder of the importance the quarterback position has in the NFL, but also that you can never have too much depth there. And if the league passes the “emergency QB” rule later this month, then more teams will carry three quarterbacks on their roster and this trend could continue in future drafts.
FWIW, the Day 3 QB/team fits that I liked best were Jake Haener/ Saints, Dorian Thompson-Robinson/Browns, and Aidan O’Connell/Raiders. All three will likely be third-stringers who won’t play much or at all in 2023, barring injury. But I think they can carve out a nice backup role and could surprise folks if they were pressed into duty.
Trend: Saucy fans announcing picks
Roger Goodell is kind of like the host of an award ceremony. He guides us through the early part of the show, then emerges now and again while sharing the spotlight with other presenters.
For the most part, the special guests are a treat1. The former players who are invited to announce a pick often honor their one-time franchise (as Robert Smith did), talk a bunch of mess (as Jason McCourty did), or do a little of both (as Drew Pearson did, again).
The NFL also likes to flaunt its global reach — from the Patriots fans in Germany who got to pronounce “Kayshon Boutte,” to the Broncos and Steelers making selections from Mexico, to the surprise appearance of two Ted Lasso cast members who read one of the Dolphins’ picks from Tottenham Stadium.
However, the fans who come out on stage are the real stars of this part of the draft. Their genuine delight for having a small role in the festivities shines through, and that in turn livens up the crowd. Their enthusiasm is even contagious for those of us watching at home.
This year, those fans brought a little bit of sass, too. There was the Bengals diehard who took a shot at the NFL with his coin flip pantomime right before revealing the team’s Charlie Jones pick.
https://twitter.com/Bengals/status/1652377573169438720?s=20
The Falcons fan who, we can only hope, put a stop to unfunny 28-3 jokes once and for all. And then the TikTok star (but the good kind) who repped the Chiefs and reminded the Eagles — who received a lot of praise during draft weekend — who the actual champions are.
This is what sports fans are like: full of love for their team and always ready to clap back at anyone who disrespects them. I’m glad we saw such personality on display; hopefully a new tradition has begun.
The less said about anyone labeled an “influencer,” the better.