The biggest concern for each top QB prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft
The biggest concern for each top QB prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft
Who should, and who shouldn't, start as a rookie?
It’s not officially draft season until 300+ prospects gather at Lucas Oil Stadium for the NFL Scouting Combine, and then members of the media and fans alike freak out about the 40 times of all the 21/22-year-olds wearing compression shorts.
OK, I’m being a little facetious. I think the combine can be useful, and even kinda fun, if you approach it with the right mindset.
Don’t just use the combine to confirm your priors (though in some cases that’ll happen naturally). But more importantly, don’t overreact to any workouts, good or bad1.
A player’s testing results are not the final word on what kind of pro he’ll be, but they are part of the puzzle. Take the combine numbers — position drills especially — and look at the tape; that should give you a clearer picture of how he projects in the NFL.
While quite a few players turned heads at this year’s combine, Anthony Richardson was probably the most talked-about man of the weekend. I saw an array of reactions about his record-setting showing, from the hyperbolic praise of “QB1” to wet-blanket negativism of “yeah, but did you watch him in college?”
In the end, Richardson most certainly improved his draft stock. The top quarterbacks who participated in drills all acquitted themselves well enough that we should expect four of them to be taken in the top 10.
That’s a far cry from last year, when zero quarterbacks were selected in the top 10 and only Kenny Pickett was a first-round pick. However, it’d be similar to the 2021 class. That year, four quarterbacks were off the board in the first 11 picks (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields) and another (Mac Jones) went four spots later.
The parallels don’t end there, either — and, in one case, can perhaps serve as a cautionary tale.
So let’s talk a little more about the top prospects in the 2023 QB class and the biggest concern each one is facing. First, I should note that I am not an expert quarterback evaluator and sometimes a prospect I think will work out in the NFL doesn’t (and vice versa). But I watch a good amount of college football, and I’m right more often than I am wrong.
Bryce Young
Biggest concern: His size
Two years ago, Trevor Lawrence was the consensus No. 1 pick. This year, Bryce Young is the favorite to go first overall — if the Bears trade out of the top spot as expected — but it’s not a guarantee. Like Lawrence, Young was a winner in college. He makes sound decisions and has the arm talent to succeed at the next level. Unlike Lawrence, Young lacks the prototypical size for an NFL quarterback. He weighed in, no doubt after loading up on carbs, 10 pounds heavier and almost two inches shorter than his listed measurements at Alabama.
That puts his size on par with another Heisman winner and former No. 1 pick: Kyler Murray.
Murray has been fine, sometimes great, as a pro, but he’s also dealt with major injuries the past two seasons. That said, his game isn’t really analogous to Young’s. Murray is a true dual-threat quarterback who is explosive as a runner and passer. Young isn’t that kind of elite athlete, though he can run and does when he needs to. Still, he’d rather buy time with his legs to make a pinpoint throw to his target:
He has a high football IQ, sees the field well, and is smart with the ball — those are the kind of characteristics that translate to the NFL.
Can he start right away? Yes.
It’s not that I think questions about Young’s size are unwarranted. I just think too much weight, no pun intended, has been put into his physique. (Admittedly, Young not participating in any drills at 200+ pounds during the combine was more fuel for his critics.)
There’s no evidence to suggest Young can’t hold up to the rigors of the NFL season. Alabama’s offensive line was uncharacteristically bad in 2021 and only slightly better in 2022. In those two seasons, Young was sacked 57 times. He only missed one start in that time due to injury, last year when he landed awkwardly on his shoulder during a scramble.
Young can throw all over the field and doesn’t get balls batted down often. Whenever I’ve watched him play, I came away thinking, “this guy’s got ‘it,’” that ineffable quality that has made him a star at every level of football so far. The NFL is next.
C.J. Stroud
Biggest concern: His mobility
I don’t blame anyone who has C.J Stroud as QB1 over Young, or Young as QB1 over Stroud. I go back and forth on it myself, despite my own personal desire to see Stroud excel every time he steps on a football field.
I believed in Stroud from day one, even as he had his share of struggles in his first couple starts. He was 19 years old and it felt unfair that fans were bashing him simply because he wasn’t Justin Fields. I also followed the Ohio State beat close enough that I knew, based on what was happening in practice and what his coaches and teammates had to say, that it was only a matter of time until Stroud was balling out.
He never became Fields, but that was never Stroud’s game anyway. Instead, he became college football’s best passer of the past two seasons and the absolutely smoothest passer in this draft.
But one criticism that consistently dogged him was his hesitancy to take off and run when the play broke down. Often, he’d extend plays by moving out of the pocket until one of his many five-star receivers got open, and then Stroud would fire a strike:
Other times, there would be nothing but green in front of him and he would try to force a throw rather than pick up some free yards. Only on rare occasions would he tuck it and run.
In his final game as a Buckeye — to bookend his first ever appearance as a Buckeye — Stroud really showed off his running ability. In the College Football Playoff semifinal against Georgia, Stroud’s legs were a big reason Ohio State almost pulled off the upset.
At the combine, Stroud lamented that he didn’t run more in college and, like any good candidate during a job interview, promised he would do better in the future. And he shouldn’t hesitate to run when necessary, especially since the NFL has become more and more of a mobile quarterback league. Yet Stroud, who only participated in the position drills, is not as natural of an athlete as Fields and will never look as fluid of a runner as his predecessor. So the question is whether Stroud can run the ball more often, particularly when the defense is aware that he’s a threat to do just that.
Can he start right away? Yes.
Stroud impressed everyone with his dimes at the combine, and not just his deep balls:
Stroud throwing the ball is a work of art. Less so when he runs, but again, Stroud doesn’t need to be Fields or Jalen Hurts, who strike fear in the heart of a defense whenever they’re on the move. He just needs to, like Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence, be comfortable taking what the defense gives him, even when that means running the ball and not waiting for his receiver to break free.
He’ll always be a pocket passer first, but I think, after seeing what happens when he confidently runs like he did against Georgia, Stroud can incorporate that in his game more in the NFL and flourish. My belief in him has been right off so far, so I’m not about to stop now.
Anthony Richardson
Biggest concern: His accuracy
Early in the 2022 season, I remember seeing some buzz about Anthony Richardson as perhaps the best QB prospect for 2023. Then after watching him play a couple times, I couldn’t get Killmonger’s “is this your king?” quote out of my head.
Richardson’s athleticism was evident all along, specifically his speed and his big arm. However, in his first (and only) season as the full-time starter, he couldn’t put it all together. He completed just 53.8 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while adding 654 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.
Richardson didn’t always get help from his receivers or from Florida’s coaching staff, but he didn’t always help himself either with a number of baffling throws:
Yet some analysts and scouts, who are more well-versed in breaking down game tape than I am, have been high on his potential for months, even before his incredible combine workout. I have heard several comparisons, one from Richardson himself, to Cam Newton. I’ve also seen Richardson and Josh Allen mentioned in the same breath.
I think both are premature. Newton was a great college quarterback — much, much better than the erratic Richardson was. Newton won the Heisman and a national championship, putting up monster numbers as a runner and passer that season.
Allen, like Richardson, did not complete a high percentage of his throws in college (56.2), but he was a good quarterback at Wyoming, one who supposedly had the physical tools to improve his ball placement in the NFL. While that did end up happening, the advanced stats said it shouldn’t have.
I can kinda understand the similarities to Allen, though Richardson is the more elusive and agile runner. Still, it’s worth pointing out that Allen is an outlier, and there are multiple reasons why he was able to develop. His success isn’t easily replicated.
Can he start right away? Please don’t try!
Two years ago, the pre-draft hype surrounding Zach Wilson got a little out of control. The Jets fell in love with his athleticism and potential, and then put him under center in Week 1. Their former OC later admitted they should have been more patient, but the damage is done. Wilson may never be a starter in the NFL again.
There’s a lesson to be learned here, for whoever drafts Richardson: Don’t rush him out there before he’s ready. If his footwork is the key to correcting Richardson’s accuracy, then give him time to learn what he should be doing. Let him sit behind a veteran and learn how to process and read the field better.
In short, give him the Mahomes treatment (not that I think he’s Mahomes-like!). I hope he lands with a team that understands how raw he is and knows that if he has any chance of living up to his promise (which I believe is possible but a gamble), then he shouldn’t be their starting quarterback in 2023.
Will Levis
Biggest concern: His decision-making
The first time I heard “Will Levis” and “potential No. 1 pick” in the same sentence was in 2019, when Chase Young (who ended up as the No. 2 pick) made life hell for the then-Penn State quarterback.
Seriously, though, it was in September. In an interview with ESPN, Kentucky OC Rich Scangarello said he thought Levis would be the first overall pick. A week later, after UK’s loss to Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin had a little fun with that declaration.
For the rest of the season, Levis was hot and cold — and really, his entire career. Only seven of his 19 touchdown passes, as well as six of his 10 interceptions, came in the second half of 2022. In two of those games, against Missouri and Louisville, he combined to throw for 358 yards, five TDs, and 0 INTs. In two others, against the not-particularly-stout defenses of Tennessee and Vanderbilt, he combined to throw for 207 yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs.
It can be a bit of a roller coaster watching him play. He would take a lot of chances, some that worked out:
And others that would turn into easy interceptions:
His risk-taking, toughness as a runner, and fastball have once again brought out comparisons to Josh Allen (who, I will remind you once again, is an outlier). Levis has his fans, like Mel Kiper, who will excuse away his hero-ball moments, because he has that ideal quarterback size.
But as we know, an NFL quarterback needs to do more than look the part and have a cannon arm to thrive2. He has to be consistent and not prone to mistakes. At least at the college level, that wasn’t Levis.
Can he start right away: I guess if he absolutely had to, but I wouldn’t recommend it.
I’m not all that high on Levis, who is too all over the place for my liking. He lacks touch and doesn’t always seem to trust his teammates, and in turn can become a wild card. I understand that he wasn’t throwing the ball to the genetic clone of an NFL Hall of Fame WR like Stroud was, but Levis needs to get a better feel for when he should try to make a play and when he should just toss the ball away. That would help cut down on his mistakes.
His control issues are partly why I don’t think he should start right away. Let him clean up his technique and work on the mental aspect of his game first. A team should only put him under center as a rookie if, like the 49ers, they run out of healthy quarterbacks. Even if Levis might be able to put together a highlight or two, we’d see a lot more blunders and bewildering decisions from him. And to be honest, I’m not sure if those will ever go away.
I’ve helped cover both historically great and historically awful performances, and sometimes neither translates to the football field. John Ross, who set the 40-yard dash record, has struggled to find his footing in the NFL. On the other hand, Orlando Brown Jr. is a perennial Pro Bowler and just won a Super Bowl.
Or else someone like Mitchell Trubisky would be more than just a backup, which might be Levis’ future as well.