5 questions I have about the 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft
5 questions I have about the 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft
All will be revealed, in exactly one month.
Like most sports fans, I’ve been enjoying the heck out of the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments. What I haven’t been enjoying is the discourse, particularly about this year’s men’s tourney, which has been producing historically chaotic results.
One common complaint I’ve seen is that this format isn’t the most optimal way to determine which team was truly the best all season. My response is twofold: 1) Yeah, that’s part of the magic and 2) Shut up, nerds, do you even like sports?!
Anyway, I hope you’ve been having fun watching March Madness, too. If basketball isn’t your sport, though, good news: The NFL Draft is fast approaching.
To help get myself prepped, I put together a list of questions I have about the first round, all of which will be answered one month from now.
Which quarterback will the Panthers take with the No. 1 pick?
The Panthers have been busy during free agency, bringing in a solid group of veterans to help out whoever will be under center. But, on that note, their biggest move wasn’t who they signed. It was trading up for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Frank Reich will have his choice of rookie quarterbacks. The early scuttlebutt was that Carolina was interested in either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud (Adam Schefter heard that Reich preferred Stroud but team owner David Tepper was high on Young). Whether true or just a smokescreen, the Panthers are doing their homework on the top passers in this class.
They sent seemingly their entire staff to check out Stroud’s pro day, then Young’s, then Will Levis’ (Anthony Richardson is up later this week when Florida holds its pro day). Reich maintains that they haven’t made up their mind yet and are considering all four prospects. While longtime Panthers linebacker Thomas Davis suggested that Richardson would be the pick, QBs coach Josh McCown might have tipped his hand during this exchange with Stroud:
Stroud is now the heavy favorite to go No. 1, followed by Young. That sounds right to me. I wouldn’t count Young out, but either way, I’d be surprised if he and Stroud aren’t the first two names called on draft night.
Will any other teams move up for a quarterback?
The Cardinals, who hold the third overall pick, are the only team in the top five that definitely won’t draft a quarterback. The Colts, who are right behind them, definitely will. The question is if the Colts will stay put.
With the fourth pick, Indy would be guaranteed to land either Levis or Richardson, both of whom are high-risk, high-reward types. Yet if the Colts had their hearts set on one in particular, they could trade up to No. 3 to try to block any other team that might want to jump them.
If they’re not sold on the long-term potential of Levis and Richardson, they could also trade down and wait for another QB later in the draft. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who is coming off a torn ACL, has gained some steam — but it’s still fairly improbable that the Colts will go that route.
The other team in the top 10 most likely to target a quarterback is Las Vegas. The Raiders signed free agent Jimmy Garoppolo, who will serve a familiar role: starter for now, until the younger guy, whoever that may be, is ready to take over.
With the No. 7 pick, Vegas isn’t assured of securing one of the top four QBs. It could make a move up to No. 3, not only to get ahead of the Colts but also any surprise teams. The Seahawks (No. 5 pick) and Lions (No. 6 pick) don’t need a quarterback right now. However, both will probably be too competitive this coming season to warrant a high pick in 2024. It’s not impossible that one of them will grab a quarterback early and let him sit and learn for at least a year.
Or they could trade down, acquire more draft picks, and continue building a playoff-contending roster.
A few other franchises that will probably take a quarterback at some point in the draft could also be candidates to trade into the top 10. That group includes the Titans, Vikings, and depending on how things unfold with Lamar Jackson, maybe even the Ravens.
How many defensive players will be drafted in the top 10?
Last year, the first five picks in the draft were all on defense, before there was a run on offensive linemen and wide receivers.
This year’s draft won’t follow that same script, though we might see another 50-50 split on offensive and defensive players in the top 10. As I covered in the section above, so much hinges on which teams, if any, trade up for a quarterback.
The Seahawks and Lions will zero in on a defensive guy if they don’t draft a quarterback. The Raiders are in the same boat, except the conditional clauses are switched around: If they don’t draft a quarterback, they’ll zero in on a defensive guy.
As the order stands now, the Cardinals will be the first team to select a defensive prospect, most likely Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., who recently received the nicest (?) compliment from Nick Saban:
The Falcons, at No. 8, are also practically a lock to shore up the defense. I mean, when are they not in desperate need for help on that side of the ball?
The Bears and Eagles could go either way, to round out the first 10 picks on Day 1.
Besides Anderson, the other defensive players who will hear their name called early are cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon, edge rusher Tyree Wilson, and defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who isn’t expected to fall out of the top 10.
Who will be the first receiver selected — and when?
The 2022 wide receiver draft class was loaded; six were drafted in the top 18 picks and seven more were second-rounders.
Do not expect receivers to fly off the board like that this year. Still, at least 3-4 of them will officially be NFL players by the time Round 1 is over.
I think if Jaxon Smith-Njigba had been healthy in 2022, he’d be the clear-cut WR1 in this draft class. For some, he still is — and his strong performance at the combine and his pro day only solidified their belief that yes, the guy who recorded 347 receiving yards in the Rose Bowl is in fact the best receiver this year (but perhaps only because teammate Marvin Harrison Jr. isn’t eligible).
But JSN’s hamstring injury might scare some teams off. He’s also not the tallest or fastest, so if size and/or speed is what a GM values above all else, then another prospect — say TCU’s Quentin Johnston or Boston College’s Zay Flowers — could go ahead of Smith-Njigba. USC’s Jordan Addison, who is neither tall nor especially quick but is quite talented, also has his fans.
Most of the receiver-needy teams will be selecting in the second half of the first round, but there are a few in the first half too. JSN to the Texans at No. 12 is starting to become a popular pick, though maybe DeMeco Ryans will try to persuade GM Nick Caserio to draft a defensive player there. The Titans (No. 11) and Patriots (No. 14) almost always need reinforcements at receiver, but neither has had much luck with first-round WRs.
In his latest mock draft, Mel Kiper doesn’t project a wide receiver going until pick No. 20: JSN to the Seahawks. One of my former colleagues, Adam Stites, put together a mock draft with the NFL Wire editors, and they have Johnston penciled in as the first receiver taken at No. 22 to the Ravens, followed by JSN to the Vikings at No. 23. Another former colleague, Charles McDonald, has Johnston going to the Texans with the 12th pick and JSN headed to Green Bay three spots later.
There doesn’t appear to be any consensus about this year’s receiver class, other than it’d be a minor upset if any are selected in the top 10.
Who will be the surprise first-rounders?
It happens every year, usually courtesy of the Patriots or Seahawks: a team will use its first-round pick on a player that leaves many of us asking, “who is that?” and then heading straight for Google.
I don’t know if we’ll get a repeat of the strange Cole Strange pick this year, but there are a handful of prospects I’ve seen pop up on individual mock drafts that could sneak their way into the first round.
One of them is Hendon Hooker. Last week, Daniel Jeremiah mocked him to the Vikings at No. 23. Hooker might be tempting if a team is worried he won’t be available when it picks again in the second round, but I can’t recommend anyone reaching for a 25-year-old rookie QB like that.
I’ll say the same about Dawand Jones, as much as I’m rooting for the extremely large tackle nicknamed “Big Thanos.” He’s strong and allowed zero sacks last season as Ohio State’s right tackle, but he has to clean up his technique, such as his footwork, a little more to be a consistent starter in the NFL. While the potential is there, I’d wait until the second round to draft him (yet if the Bengals took him at No. 28, I won’t complain because it’d be more protection for Joe Burrow, which is always a good thing.)
NFL fans can be intensely opinionated about the value of running backs, particularly drafting one in the first round. Texas’ Bijan Robinson is a slam dunk first-rounder — maybe even, *gasp* a top-10 pick — but there’s a small chance he isn’t the only Day 1 running back. Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs, already on fantasy football’s radar, is the next-best RB prospect after Robinson. I would not bet on him being a first-round pick, because it’s such a luxury to draft a back that high, but when I saw that College Sports Wire sent him to the Cowboys at No. 26, I thought, “huh, I could see Jerry Jones doing that.”
Jack Campbell was an awesome college player. Last season, he was a first-team All-American and won the Butkus Award, which honors the top linebacker in the country. He’s smart, both on and off the field, and he can make plays, even if he’s not the most athletic player at his position:
That said, Campbell isn’t a fit for every defense in the NFL, which is probably why his projected draft spot is all over the place. My feeling is that any franchise that covets him could wait until Day 2. However, if a team like the Bills, which is picking late in the first round, doesn’t want to risk losing out on him, then Campbell could be off the board on the first night of the draft.
Or maybe Bill Belichick will trade down in the first round and land Campbell then. Come to think of it, that’d be a very Belichick move.