The second-year NFL breakout candidates to know on defense
Last time, we looked at offense. Now it's the defense's turn to get in on the fun.
How do you know when a player has broken out? I don’t think there are any hard-and-fast rules that decide who has “made it” and who is still striving to get there. Personally, I take a Potter Stewart-type approach and know it when I see it.
So my definition of a breakout candidate might differ from yours, and that’s OK. Something I think most of us can agree on, though: each year, only a select number of rookies are bonafide stars, but more from their draft class join them the following season.
Maybe they had to sit behind veterans in Year 1. Maybe an injury sidelined them for a time. Maybe it took until late in their first NFL season for things to really click. Those are the kind of players primed to take a big step in Year 2.
In my previous newsletter, I selected one second-year player at each offensive position who I believe will do just that. As promised, here’s Part 2, focused on the defensive side of the ball.
LB: Nakobe Dean, Eagles
In 2021, Nakobe Dean won the Butkus Award and was a major disruptor (10.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, two INTs) for Georgia’s national championship-winning defense. Despite his impressive resume, Dean fell all the way to the third round of the draft due to his injury history and lack of size. At the time, he seemed like a steal for the Eagles, a take that ended up aging nicely.
In 2022, Dean appeared in all 17 regular season games for the NFC champions, as well as all three postseason contests. Although most of his playing time came on special teams, Dean is in line for a starting linebacker spot this year after T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White signed elsewhere. During training camp, Dean has been the “green dot” guy in the huddle who communicates the play calls from the coaches to the players. He’s taken his leadership role seriously, something both his coaches and teammates have noticed. Philly’s defense should be among the NFL’s best again this season — expect Dean to play a big part in that success.
Other candidates:
Devin Lloyd, who had an up-and-down rookie season but is now finding his footing for the Jaguars.
Troy Andersen, whose athleticism has the Falcons’ new DC excited.
Damone Clark, who is healthy and making his presence known for the Cowboys.
Christian Harris, who should be even better in Year 2 under the tutelage of Texans coach (and former linebacker) DeMeco Ryans.
Edge: George Karlaftis, Chiefs
In some ways, George Karlaftis has arrived. The first-round pick started every game last season and registered six sacks and eight tackles for loss. In another sense, though, Karlaftis was more of a role player — he was on the field for 64 percent of Kansas City’s defensive snaps last year, not a particularly high number for a starter.
At this point, I think Karlaftis has only shown us a fraction of the kind of impactful player he can be. We saw glimpses of that pass-rushing menace, particularly in the second half of last season, as 5.5 of his sacks came in the final seven weeks. With Frank Clark now with the Broncos, Karlaftis is set for a starring role alongside Chris Jones. He knows he has to be more consistent in his second year, and this summer, he’s put in the work to get stronger while training with Chiefs legend Tamba Hali. Karlaftis already had football smarts, but learning from Hali, who ranks second in franchise history in total sacks, should help his mental game, as well.
Other candidates:
Kayvon Thibodeaux, who is appalled to watch his game film last year … even though he came in fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting (and thus has probably already “broken out”).
Sam Williams, who was a terror on the field for the Cowboys even though he played just 27 percent of the team’s defensive snaps.
David Ojabo, who is eying double-digit sacks in his first fully healthy season in Baltimore.
James Houston IV, who is aiming to build off his incredible second-half performance … and rack up a whopping 16 sacks for the Lions.
DL: Devonte Wyatt, Packers
Like Dean and Karlaftis, Devonte Wyatt saw action in a lot of games (16) but didn’t earn a high percentage of defensive snaps (23%). And like Dean and Karlaftis, Wyatt’s playing time will increase significantly in 2023 after a couple of departures (Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry).
A big chunk of Wyatt’s snaps last season came in the final three weeks of the season, when Lowry was out with a calf injury. In that limited time, Wyatt showed promise, especially against the pass. Earlier this offseason, Packers DL coach Jerry Montgomery said he anticipates a second-year leap from Wyatt, who understands the defense and his assignments better. His teammates have noticed, too, while Wyatt himself is planning to hit the ground running this year. Though he didn’t outright predict his own breakout season, Wyatt did declare that Green Bay’s defense would create some noise in 2023.
Other candidates:
Jordan Davis, whose praises have been sung by pretty much the entire Eagles defense during training camp.
Neil Farrell Jr., who has a real opportunity to become an impact player for the Raiders, if he can seize it.
Micheal Clemons, who is out to show — and I quote — “That the Jets got a f*ing monster.”
CB: Derek Stingley Jr., Texans
Last year, rookie cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Tariq Woolen came out of the gates on fire, as did Texans safety Jalen Pitre. Derek Stingley Jr., who was drafted higher than all of them at No. 3 overall, wasn’t so lucky. Injuries, as they did in his final seasons at LSU, stymied Stingley’s progress. While he started every game he played and put up respectable numbers (43 tackles, 5 passes defended, 1 INT, 1 sack, 78.4 passer rating when targeted), Stingley missed the entire second half of the season.
Right now, he’s healthy, stronger, and has dominated Texans training camp, which has caught new head coach DeMeco Ryans’ attention. That should be no surprise — Stingley’s instincts and aggressiveness are a perfect fit for Ryans’ defense, as he showed when he snagged a pick-six in practice.
https://twitter.com/HoustonTexans/status/1686080664532090911?s=20
Houston might not be projected to win many games, but the defense is guaranteed to be better. Stingley should be a big part of that improvement, if he can stay healthy.
Other candidates:
Cam Taylor-Britt, who will take on a full-time starting job for the Bengals.
Alontae Taylor, who will likely play in the slot more after filling in admirably for Marshon Lattimore last year.
Kader Kohou, who will help the Dolphins survive the next couple months without Jalen Ramsey.
Kyler Gordon, who has been given the nickname “Spider Man” due to his instinctual play during Bears camp.
S: Kerby Joseph, Lions
Ravens first-round safety Kyle Hamilton didn’t record any interceptions as a rookie. Kerby Joseph, a third-round pick for Detroit, had four. So why do I consider the latter a “leap” candidate while the former has already broken out? To me, it’s about consistency. Hamilton had such a strong close to his season that I think his real breakthrough happened around December. I have no doubts about him entering this year. But Joseph’s performances were more boom or bust, which has left me a little more uncertain about which version we’ll see in 2023.
I’m optimistic, however, that Joseph can continue to develop, especially after fellow defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson raved about how far along Joseph is for a second-year player. Lions coach Dan Campbell wants to see Joseph handle his assignments better, but in typical Campbell fashion, he’s excited to see what Joseph will do next. He’s not alone in that regard.
Other candidates:
Jaquan Brisker, who is ready to be a game-changer this year for the Bears.
Reed Blankenship, who went from UDFA to rotational safety to full-time starter for the Eagles, in just over a year.