The second-year NFL breakout candidates to know on offense
There are a lot of promising players this year, even if not all of them will make the jump.
NFL training camps have begun, and as they do every year, they bring both good tidings and bad. Soon after Joe Burrow gave us all a scare with his (hopefully minor) calf injury, news came that Jalen Ramsey could miss significant time with a knee injury. Blech!
On a happier note, young players around the league are starting to build hype. Not all of them will end up making a splash, but some will, either this year or in the future.
For a lot of them, especially the highly touted prospects, their biggest growth often happens between their first and second year. That’s why I’d like to turn my attention to which players I think could break out in Year 2.
I think there are a lot of worthy candidates to consider as second-year leap guys, but I decided to highlight one player per position, to keep this newsletter from getting too long. And then, well, it started to get too long. So I pivoted a little and will break this topic up into two separate newsletters. Part 1, focused on the offense, is below. Keep an eye out for the defensive group early next week.
QB: Desmond Ridder, Falcons
The 2022 season wasn’t very old when Falcons fans started calling for third-round pick Desmond Ridder to replace Marcus Mariota. They ended up having to wait until December to get their wish. Ridder was under center for the final four games of the season. He struggled at times in the harsh environments of New Orleans and Baltimore, but he acquitted himself well in two wins against the Cardinals and Bucs.
Not that those last two games were all that challenging. Still, Ridder showed the Atlanta coaching staff enough to make him the full-fledged QB1 in 2023. Though he’s not on the same talent level as Jalen Hurts, Ridder can take a page from Hurts’ playbook and use all the weapons around him to make himself a better quarterback. One area he needs to improve most is his accuracy, which should be easy to do surrounded by both dynamic youngsters (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier) and veterans alike (Cordarrelle Patterson, Jonnu Smith).
Plus, Ridder has the football IQ and work ethic to make the potentially entertaining Falcons offense hum.
Other candidates:
Kenny Pickett, who has more starts under his belt than any other sophomore QB (and since he has already solidified himself as the Steelers’ starter, I was less inclined to consider him as a true breakout candidate).
Sam Howell, who now has Eric Bieniemy as his OC.
Malik Willis, who has impressed more than Will Levis so far this offseason.
RB: James Cook, Bills
Maybe this is a “fool me once” situation, because it’s been a bit risky expecting a huge season from any Buffalo running back since Josh Allen became quarterback. Yet Allen has resolved not to run as much for the sake of his own health (and career longevity). Not only that, but Devin Singletary is now with the Texans, while Nyheim Hines will miss all of 2023 after a freak jet ski accident.
All of that opens the door for Cook to become the primary rusher on the team. As a rookie, he led all Bills running backs in yards per carry average (5.7), though he was second in total yards behind Singletary (819 vs. 507). Cook also put his receiving skills on display, with 21 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. With that dimension to his game, the shifty Cook has the tools to be a reliable playmaker in Buffalo’s high-octane offense. Even if he’s not a bruiser, OC Ken Dorsey believes Cook can be a three-down back. Besides, the Bills can always turn to Damien Harris or Latavius Murray when they need a couple of hard-earned yards, and then go back to Cook when they need a big gain.
Other candidates:
Rachaad White, who is aiming for 1,000+ rushing yards now that Leonard Fournette is no longer in Tampa.
Breece Hall, whose promising rookie campaign was cut short by an ACL tear (then again, the Jets are flirting with Dalvin Cook now).
Zamir White, who is expected to get more playing time whether Josh Jacobs continues to hold out or not.
Isaiah Spiller, who is expected to have a bigger role in Kellen Moore’s offense.
WR: Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys
Jalen Tolbert has earned rave reviews this summer, most recently during the early part of the Cowboys’ training camp. Sometimes, that’s a good omen for a player’s upcoming season; other times, it turns out to be nothing more than offseason hopeium. I’m choosing to take the former approach with Tolbert, even if I’m wary of trusting Mike McCarthy as the Dallas playcaller.
In his rookie year, the third-round pick didn’t get on the field much, despite the Cowboys having issues at the WR position (outside of CeeDee Lamb anyway). But Tolbert has decided to treat his rocky first season as a learning experience and is feeling more self-assured heading into his second year. Although Tolbert will be the fourth receiver behind Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup, he seems to be thriving in a more clearly defined role and has displayed strong chemistry with Dak Prescott. If Tolbert earns Prescott’s trust, expect the second-year receiver to see a decent number of targets this year, particularly when defenses sell out to try to stop Lamb and Cooks.
Other candidates:
Treylon Burks, who could make a formidable tag team with new Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
John Metchie III, who has been cleared for Texans training camp after missing his rookie season due to a leukemia diagnosis.
Alec Pierce, who flashed as a rookie and can be a larger threat if he becomes more consistent.
Jahan Dotson, who can live up to his first-round draft status if he stays healthy and if the Commanders’ quarterback situation finally improves this year.
TE: Jelani Woods, Colts
Jelani Woods’ rookie numbers might not look all that impressive — 25 catches for 311 yards and three TD receptions — but they actually are, with more context. For one, the Colts were a mess last year, cycling between ineffective and/or washed options at quarterback (Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, Nick Foles). Second, Woods was fourth on the team in receiving yards and tied for second in receiving touchdowns — and he wasn’t even the starting tight end. And third, remember that this team had Jeff Saturday as its coach for half the season.
Under better circumstances, Woods could be a major contributor in Indy. While the offense doesn’t have anywhere to go but up, there are still plenty of questions to be answered at the QB position, like who the starter will be and what to expect from Anthony Richardson this year and beyond. Nevertheless, new coach Shane Steichen loves to get his tight ends in open space and let them work. Woods is a massive target at 6’7, 253 pounds, but he’s also super athletic and moves down the field like he’s a few inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter. He has the potential to become Richardson’s and/or Gardner Minshew’s safety blanket before too long.
Other candidates:
Trey McBride, who played well as a rookie after Zach Ertz’s season ended.
Jeremy Ruckert, who is ready to put his tough first year with the Jets behind him.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, who came on strong for the Titans at the end of last year.
Greg Dulcich, who might be Sean Payton’s new favorite player.
OL: Ikem Ekwonu, Panthers
For three straight drafts, the Panthers declined to use their top-10 draft pick on a quarterback. They learned their lesson this year, when they traded up to No. 1 to land Bryce Young, who has already been named their starter.
The job of protecting the savior of the franchise’s blindside goes to Ikem Ekwonu, the No. 7 overall pick last year. The left tackle allowed two sacks in his first ever game (to be fair, he was lining up against Myles Garrett), and three more in his last five games. But he also went 10 straight games without surrendering a sack, even in the midst of the Panthers’ coaching change and QB carousel.
This year, the Panthers should have more stability under center and on the sideline. Though Carolina mostly overhauled its coaching staff, Frank Reich retained offensive line coach James Campen, which has helped Ekwonu’s development and the rest of the starting OL’s (who all return, if/when healthy). Ekwonu has already emerged as a leader in the locker room, and now that he’s more acclimated to the NFL, we should see his growth on the field as well.
Other candidates:
Zion Johnson, who will move over to left guard, his more natural position, for the Chargers.
Tyler Smith, who exceeded expectations filling in for Tyron Smith at LT and is now back at LG (for now).
Dylan Parham, who can play wherever the Raiders need him.
Trevor Penning, who has the Saints feeling optimistic … if he can just stay healthy.
Stay tuned for Part 2 next week!