Fine, let’s talk about Le’Veon Bell
Plus, ranking Week 1's games and revisiting 2018 first-round picks
29 free agent NFL running backs have signed new contracts this offseason. None of them were Le’Veon Bell.
Few players in the league have fallen off a bigger production cliff before turning 30 than the former three-time All-Pro. Bell overplayed his hand when it came to demanding market-setting contract guarantees from a Steelers franchise that simply doesn’t do that unless you’re a quarterback. He held out his age 26 season — the same age Derrick Henry was in his 2,027-yard campaign — then signed with the Jets … only to be immediately ostracized by new head coach/haunted mannequin Adam Gase.
Bell was mostly forgettable in New York, because that’s been the high mark of what a Jet is capable of over the last five years. The team released him after only 17 games in green and white (he’d signed a four-year, $52 million deal there). Fantasy owners who’d stubbornly held on to him beyond his sell-by date rejoiced when he signed with the Chiefs, but their satisfaction was short-lived. Bell had only 353 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in nine regular season games. He added only two touches in the lone postseason game in which he saw the field: a Divisional Round win over the Browns.
This failed to inspire confidence in his future. Bell is 29 years old. While his relatively light workload the last three years may have recharged his batteries — his 411 touches between 2018-2020 were 20 fewer than he had in 2017 alone — that argument hasn’t swayed NFL executives. The former Steeler now sits in a pile of unwanted toys that includes former notables such as Todd Gurley, Dion Lewis, Duke Johnson, and LeSean McCoy.
Bell’s brief time with the Chiefs showed what he can (and can’t) do now
One thing stands out about Bell’s half(ish) season with the Chiefs. It’s clear his vision and patience are still intact, but the first-step acceleration that separated him from traffic in Pittsburgh rarely shows up on recent tape. Bell was never a straight-line burner; he ran a 4.60s 40 at the 2013 NFL Combine. In 2020, he looks like the kind of runner who’d get chased down by every defensive back on the field:
Here’s a telling carry from one of his first games in Kansas City — a revenge showdown against the Jets. Bell has a hole open up between his center and right guard for a likely gain of five-ish yards. Instead, he overruns it before realizing his mistake. There’s still room to save the run with a cut back, but he can’t explode to his left at a 90 degree angle to take advantage of a quickly closing hole. The combination of hesitation and limited speed instead pushes him into his own lineman and allows Henry Anderson to make the stop for behind after limited progress.
The end result was one of the worst ground performances of his career in what was supposed to be a “shove it” game. Bell had only seven yards on six carries. This was one of three games in 2020 in which he averaged fewer than 2.4 yards per rush.
There were positives in Bell’s brief stint in Kansas City. He played 31 snaps in the Chiefs’ Week 15 win over the Saints, turning that into 16 touches for 76 total yards and one touchdown (albeit a kinda fluky one):
Still, there were several examples where a quicker player like, say, teammate Clyde Edwards-Helaire would have been able to turn a modest gain into a big chunk of positive yards.
It’s also notable that in key moments where Bell’s versatility shined he was often off the field. He played in a third of the Chiefs’ snaps in New Orleans, but was rarely Andy Reid’s choice on third and fourth downs. Instead, those carries, targets, or pass blocking assignments went to rookie Edwards-Helaire or veteran Darrel Williams. This was one of Bell’s best days of the ‘20 season. He had 15 carries for 62 yards and 1.7 yards per rush after contact against a stingy Saints D. Edwards-Helaire, on the other hand … had 14 carries for 79 yards and 3.1 yards per rush after contact.
So, not great! Bell was flanked by one of the league’s top offenses and still struggled to shine. His 4.0 yards per carry was barely better than the 3.9 mark he had in two games as a Jet that season. He can still be a change-of-pace player out of the backfield — at 6’1 and 225 pounds there’s still some thump to his game and he still does a good job of falling forward after contact — but his days atop a depth chart are likely over based on his 2020.
But Bell can still bring value to the right offense
Bell’s game has never been reduced solely to his running. A big part of his contract impasse in Pittsburgh was that he wanted to be paid like a top running back AND a No. 2 wide receiver, all in one. He averaged at least 5.2 catches per game in three of his first five seasons in the NFL.
He hasn’t been that prolific in the years since but still brings reliable hands out of the backfield, albeit with a limited, screen-heavy route tree. Bell’s average depth of target last season in Kansas City was 0.6 yards BEHIND the line of scrimmage, yet he still averaged a healthy 6.9 yards per target last fall — a number that would have been fourth-best among qualified RBs if he’d played enough snaps. His 80 percent catch rate was slightly higher than his career average.
While the bulk of his targets come from screen passes, he’s still capable of revving through a linebacker mismatch with a well-timed wheel route or lining up in the slot to create leverage in the mid-range aerial game. He won’t be the prolific pass catcher he was as a Steeler after seeing his target share drop from 17 percent his final three seasons in Pittsburgh to four percent in a stacked Chiefs offense, but he could still be a difference maker in a tailback platoon. Give him James White’s playbook — four to six targets per game and three to eight carries — and he can be a valuable piece of an NFL offense, particularly on the third downs Reid didn’t quite trust him with after having to learn the KC playbook on the fly last season.
Who could use a player like that? The Falcons’ top two backs are Mike Davis and Qadree Ollison right now, but they may avoid a damaged goods player like Bell after getting very little from Todd Gurley last season. The Bengals could use a player in the Gio Bernard mode after releasing the veteran earlier this year. The Lions are always looking for the next tailback to not record a 100-yard game for them.
Tennessee could use a pass catching alternative to Derrick Henry’s ground-based attack. Jon Gruden appears content to add players regardless of cost or need, so sure, why not? The Steelers almost certainly don’t want him back and Pittsburgh fans may revolt at the idea of a Bell reunion, but you could do worse as a veteran option behind rookie Najee Harris than the former All-Pro.
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Honestly, Bell’s dropoff isn’t totally surprising. He was a first team All-Pro in 2017, but if you looked beyond the “big numbers for a good team” stat sheet you could see the inefficiencies. He averaged just four yards per carry that season and didn’t break a single run of more than 27 yards. Without a league-high 406 touches (in 15 games!) he would have likely been regarded among peers like Jordan Howard and Melvin Gordon instead of default RB1 status.
The time off didn’t roll back his odometer. Playing under Adam Gase was the football equivalent of taking a sports car and filling its gas tank with plastic army men. Now Bell has plenty to prove, but he’ll have to turn back the clock to 2016 to be a valued piece for a contender’s roster. That’s a pretty big ask!
But in the right place with the right expectations, he can still be a useful piece for a contending offense (just, probably, not as a run-first tailback). The question now is if that right place is looking for his services, or if he’ll continue to founder while looking for the right place to ride out the final act of his NFL career. — CD
Take a bow, the 2018 draft class
I don’t know how many years it takes to properly evaluate a draft class, and I know that you can’t judge one based solely on its first round. However, the recent fifth-year option deadline seems like a good omen for how history will remember the 2018 class.
First, a quick refresher: In 2011, the NFL’s then-new collective bargaining agreement included a fifth-year option teams could use on their first-round picks. Since then, teams have until May of a first-rounder’s fourth year to exercise that option. If they don’t, then that player becomes a free agent after the season, when his rookie contract runs out.
The deadline for the 2018 draft class was last week, and only 10 players saw their options declined. The other 22 either got their option picked up or have already received a new contract — the second-most ever in a year. Only the 2014 class, with 23, had more. One of those was Blake Bortles, though, so I’m not sure how much better its hit rate was. But at least the 2018 class has bragging rights in one regard: a record-number nine top-10 picks got their options picked up (poor, poor Josh Rosen is the lone exception).
Here’s a list of the 10 players whose options were not exercised, and as a side note, please remember that Lamar Jackson was passed over until pick No. 32:
Josh Rosen (Pick No. 10)
Leighton Vander Esch (Pick No. 19)
Billy Price (Pick No. 21)
Rashaan Evans (Pick No. 22)
Hayden Hurst (Pick No. 23)
Rashaad Penny (Pick No. 27)
Terrell Edmunds (Pick No. 28)
Taven Bryan (Pick No. 29)
Mike Hughes (Pick No. 30)
Sony Michel (Pick No. 31)
That bunch is a mix of underperformers, the injury-plagued, and/or running backs, but Rosen is the only one I’d consider a high-profile bust. Of course, our view of this draft class can change in a hurry if 2021 brings misfortune to some of its more notable members. Maybe Baker Mayfield reverts back to his 2019/early 2020 form. Maybe Saquon Barkely suffers another major injury. Maybe Sam Darnold flames out with the Panthers. All very possible outcomes!
On the flip side, the 2017 and 2013 draft classes had the fewest option pickups/extensions (18 each). The 2013 draft class is a no-doubt stinker — arguably the worst of the century. The 2017 class had some first-round misses, but it also boasts the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Myles Garrett, and non-first-rounders Alvin Kamara, George Kittle, and Kenny Golladay.
So while the number of fifth-year options exercised doesn’t tell the entire story of a draft class, it can give us a window into its successes and failures. Right now, that means the 2018 class is sitting pretty. Next year, though, the 2019 class will have its turn and ... uh, that’s looking less positive. — SH
Week 1 from Worst to Best
IT’S SCHEDULE ANNOUNCEMENT DAY!!!
Or, as we used to call it back in the day on the newsdesk: another long ass work day.
It’s really not that exciting, not exciting enough to merit a three-hour primetime special and a cascade of content that nobody will be interested in after 24 hours have passed. But anyway … we got the Week 1 slate early, and since we’re here, let’s go ahead and make our viewing plans for more than three months from now.
Don’t bother with these games
Dolphins at Patriots (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
Has there ever been an interesting Patriots/Phins game? Certainly not. And there’s even less to see here now.
Jets at Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
Oof, this one is gonna be rough.
Broncos at Giants (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
There’s no way Drew Lock is the Broncos’ starting quarterback at this point, right? We know that Daniel Jones will be for the Giants, which means this game could be real ugly. Skip it.
Chargers at Washington (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
Vikings at Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
49ers at Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
A new QB, but they’ll have him playing really conservatively.
Moderately interesting, but these teams might need some more time to care about
Seahawks at Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
Offseason quarterback drama!!! But it’ll all be forgotten by then. I get the feeling that the Seahawks will start the season looking good and then fade when Pete Carroll goes all conservative old man again.
Eagles at Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
This is the kind of game where the Falcons could come out and hang 50 points on the Iggles, make everyone think this team is going to be exciting to watch, then let their fans down a couple weeks later. Falcons football, catch the fever!
Cowboys at Buccaneers (Thursday night kickoff game, 8:20 p.m.)
The NFL found a way to force feed America EVEN MORE Tom Brady AND the NFC East.
Jaguars at Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
Sure, the Jags have an exciting rookie QB, but we all know the main attraction here is definitely going to be their new tight end, the Northern Florida version of Taysom Hill, only much worse. Forget the game, just watch Jags Twitter.
Also, I get the feeling that Deshaun Watson might not be playing in this one.
Packers at Saints (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
You and I both know that the Aaron Rodgers stuff will be resolved, at least temporarily by this point. Rodgers will start the season, happy to be a Packer and pissed off at the media for daring to ask about the whole affair he himself made such a big deal of. Check back in with the Packers in November or December, when Rodgers is pissed off at the team again.
Bears at Rams (Sunday night game)
Justin Fields, meet Aaron Donald.
Steelers at Bills (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
Join me hate watching an aging quarterback hold back a team with Super Bowl intentions.
Cardinals at Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
Sure, why not!
3. Appointment viewing
Browns at Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
The Chiefs haven’t lost in Week 1 since Andy Reid started coaching there. They’re easily the most exciting team in football, whether you like them or not. But the Browns are also really good now, and one of the few teams in the AFC that can legit give Mahomes and Co. a run for their money. I’m already stoked for the rematch in late January. —RVB