The deals we love — and two teams we hate — after 48 hours of NFL free agency
New England's tight ends, the Chargers OL, and Andy damn Dalton
Technically, the NFL free agency window opens up today at 4 p.m. ET. That’s when the overworked, underpaid social media staff for every team can begin publicly welcoming all the new players:
In reality, we already know where about 60 percent of the top free agents will be playing in 2021. Sure, that means a decent chunk of high-profile names are still available, such as (at least right now), Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Richard Sherman. But after a run on quarterbacks, it also leaves Mitchell Trubisky as the best free agent option for any team looking to add a passer (and a Nickelodeon Valuable Player, a description that should always be included in any Trubisky reference, even in his obituary one day).
There have been enough — more than enough really, because we could easily go over the word count limit if we wanted — signings so far for us to start judging our most and least favorites.
We love ...
Marvin Jones, Jaguars
Depth isn’t sexy, until you need it. This was a great get for Jacksonville, giving them a solid second outside receiver for less than $15 million over two years. Jones is a nice second option with D.J. Chark, and if Chark’s health struggles continue into 2021, we’ve seen Jones succeed as a replacement for a No. 1 receiver in Detroit (free agent prize Kenny Golladay). Plus, he’s getting back together with Darrell Bevell, giving him some offensive continuity. — RVB
Tyrod Taylor, Texans
Taylor did not look good last year (important counterpoint: he only played one game before the Chargers’ legendary training staff nearly killed him with a needle, so who knows? — CD). The reason I like this signing is because it just adds more fuel to the speculation and needless blog posts about Houston trading Deshaun Watson, which absolutely has to happen this year. To wit:
Bang it here for more Deshaun talk! — RVB
William Jackson, WFT
I’m not sure how to live in a world where the Washington Football Team is good, like really good--not winning the NFC East by default good. But, that’s the reality we’re going to have to confront in 2021 and maybe beyond that even.
WFT signed a No. 1 cornerback to No. 2 money, just three years and $42 million with $26 million guaranteed, which makes him the 12th highest paid CB, so far, based on annual average.
Their defense had the third best DVOA last season (-18.3%) and the second best pass defense (-18.0% DVOA.) Now, they’ve just drastically improved the secondary, which pairs well with a homewrecking defensive line. — RVB
The Patriots’ throwback to 2011 (with, ideally, fewer murderers)
On day one of the legal tampering period, Bill Belichick made Jonnu Smith the highest-paid tight end not named George Kittle or Travis Kelce in the NFL. On day two, he gave Hunter Henry the same annual $12.5 million salary.
It’s a massive reaction to New England’s post-Rob Gronkowski era. In his final season as a Patriot, Gronk made 47 catches for 682 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games for a Super Bowl champion. In the two years since, the Pats’ tight ends — an uninspiring budget cruise line buffet featuring a 39-year-old Ben Watson and such non-stars as Ryan Izzo, Matt LaCosse, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Thomas, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene — combined for 55 catches, 670 yards, and three touchdowns. They have won zero playoff games.
So it makes sense Belichick would break his own spendthrift free agency rules to haul in the top two tight ends on the market — a pair of players who had 101 catches for 1,108 yards and 13 total touchdowns last fall. Though it cost New England more than $56 million in guarantees, Henry and Smith give offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels a traditional space-creating target over the middle and a zone-busting, throw him anywhere presence capable of making up for his team’s lack of a true threat at wideout.
Smith will serve as Bill Belichick’s latest Swiss Army Knife. His 4.6s 40 speed gives him linebacker-roasting bonafides, but he’s also athletic enough to place in the slot or in motion to sow chaos in opposing backfields. When the Titans faced the Colts in Week 10, Indianapolis had yet to allow an opposing tight end to score a touchdown against them. That forced former Belichick pupil Mike Vrabel to get creative with how he used Smith. This was the result.
That kind of pre-snap motion sweep is exactly the kind of play New England would have run with [REDACTED DECEASED TIGHT END]. Smith has six career carries for 82 yards, and I’d bet both those numbers will jump in 2021.
Henry is the more established player of the two, and his time with the Chargers showed he was capable of being a mid-range option for a veteran quarterback (10.2 air yards per target with Philip Rivers in 2019) and a shorter safety net for a rookie (8.0 AYPT with Justin Herbert last season). This is meaningful for a team likely to throw a glitchy Cam Newton and whomever the team drafts into the mix behind center.
Like Smith, Henry can work in-line or out of the slot, and his specialty is identifying weaknesses in zone coverage and creating gains.
There’s a little sparkle of Gronk in Henry’s routes and coverage-loosening releases, which gives New England a target in the middle of the field capable of running more than low-reward crossing patterns. He also knows how to get to the sticks; 154 of his 196 career catches — 79 percent — have gone for either first downs or touchdowns.
The presence of Smith AND Henry takes pressure from a beleaguered receiving corps that swang for a bloop single by adding Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne on the first day of free agency. The Patriots are loaded up with WR2/3/4 types, but the lack of an alpha atop the depth chart is easier to mitigate with a pair of true TE1s. We’ll get a better idea of what Newton still has in the tank thanks to these changes — and a better idea if the Pats’ dynasty really was the Tom Brady Show. — CD
The Browns’ reinforcements on defense
John Johnson was one of the best safeties on the free agent market, and the Browns didn’t have to overspend to land him with a reasonable three-year, $33.75 million deal. Johnson is just 25, but he also brings experience to Cleveland after starting for most of his four seasons with the Rams. He’ll also be a major upgrade to their free safety position.
Last year, safety was a glaring weakness for the Browns, who put their fans — who have cast-iron stomachs due to both their kielbasa/beer diets and to their years of allegiance to the Browns — through agony with the Andrew Sendejo experience. This year, it can be a strength, especially if Grant Delpit, the 2020 second-round pick who missed his rookie year with an injury, is healthy. Johnson, Delpit, and Ronnie Harrison are the kind of young, versatile playmakers the back end of the defense needs.
The Browns were also in the market for pass rushing help and likely still are after taking a flier on former Falcons first-rounder Takk McKinley. The 25-year-old flamed out after a promising start in Atlanta (13 sacks in his first two seasons), but his one-year, $4 million deal with Cleveland is a win for both parties. McKinley has the chance to revive his career, while the Browns are taking a cheap gamble on an edge rusher who has the potential to fill a need. If it works out, great. If not, it won’t cost them much. — SH
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team-er
Washington couldn’t snag Matthew Stafford or Carson Wentz, so it got a much cheaper option who could provide a major boost to its offense. The Football Team won the bulk of its 2020 games behind a passing offense as dangerous as a cup of frozen yogurt. Alex Smith’s average completion traveled fewer than four yards downfield, effectively neutering an explosive young core of targets.
Signing Fitzpatrick, who brings greater risks and greater downfield rewards, should dislodge a passing game that was stuck in low gear. While he isn’t quite the bomb-lobber he was in Tampa — his 9.1 air yards per completion was third-most in the NFL — he’s still significantly more dangerous as a home run hitter than any of the three QBs Washington started in 2020. Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith combined for 51 throws of 20+ yards last season and completed only 14 of them (27 percent). Fitzpatrick completed 60 percent of his throws (12 of 20) despite an uneven receiving corps in Miami.
This is great news for a rising young group of targets in the nation’s capital. Terry McLaurin emerged as a Pro Bowler despite a carousel of rotting jack-o-lanterns at quarterback. Logan Thomas looks like a solid tight end after a long conversion process from college QB. Antonio Gibson can do just about anything out of the backfield.
One guy we’re not talking about? Cam Sims. The third-year wideout averaged 14.9 yards per catch from a rotating cast of clogged garden hoses. When Taylor Heinicke, who spent the majority of 2020 as a non-football playing online college attendee, took the reins in the postseason, Sims responded with a seven-catch, 104-yard performance against the Super Bowl champions. Imagine what he can do with a veteran quarterback unafraid to sling the ball more than 10 yards downfield.
Fitzpatrick doesn’t have to be good for the WFT to build on last year’s seven-win season. He just has to be his typical late-stage self. If nothing else, it’ll be fun to watch — and that’s something we haven’t said about Washington football in a looooong time.
(Still, if the Football Team wants to snag Kenny Golladay I wouldn’t complain.)
— CD
The Chargers’ OL additions
Last week, I singled out the Chargers as a perfect landing spot for longtime Packers center Corey Linsley. The Chargers agreed, making the recent All-Pro the highest-paid center in the league with a five-year, $62.5 million deal. It’s not hard to see why the Chargers made this decision. Reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert played behind a high number of offensive line combinations in 2020, and most of those linemen were, at best, serviceable and are now free agents. Linsley will take over for Dan Feeney, who switched to guard following now-retired Mike Pouncey’s injury, and he can bring much-needed stability to a line that has to protect Herbert. The same guy who had Aaron Rodgers’ trust for seven seasons will be an asset in Herbert’s continued development.
The Chargers also made another less flashy move to bolster the unit, signing Matt Feiler to a three-year deal. Although he’s less of a name, the former Steeler is a valuable addition with experience playing both guard and tackle. — SH
We do NOT love ...
The Jaguars’ use of their cap space
Jacksonville is headed into a new era with a new head coach (Urban Meyer) and, barring a major upset, a new franchise quarterback (Trevor Lawrence). A season of sucking and jettisoning talent set the Jags up to dispense more than $80 million in 2021 cash this offseason. But while the Patriots were busy spending like drunken sailors, the Jags opted to throw big sums of cash at more modest players.
Shaquill Griffin is getting paid like a top 12 cornerback when he’s more of a top 30 guy. He has six career interceptions in four seasons and has never allowed a passer rating below 93.0 in that stretch. The Jaguars’ contract structure with him will make it difficult to justify keeping him when cap hits of $16.5m and then $17.5m come due in 2022 and 2023 if he doesn’t improve. He may not see more than the opening stages of his team’s rebuild, so this whole signing feels … pointless? He’s better than what the Jaguars had, so at least there’s that.
The other big secondary addition was former Chargers safety Rayshawn Jenkins, who got a four-year $35 million deal. That’s fine if his stock continues to rise like it did after a career-best 2020, but he was unremarkable in the three years prior and only has two seasons as a starter under his belt. He’s a solid center fielder but, like Griffin, not the kind of signing that’s going to pop the fans at TIAA Bank Stadium.
And speaking of strong and unspectacular, here’s Roy Robertson-Harris! He’s a perfectly useful defensive lineman who never played more than 51 percent of the Bears’ defensive snaps in any of his four seasons in the league. While his situational pass rushing numbers were decent — 26 QB hits in his last 36 games — they may also have been the effect of playing in a top-five defense where bigger stars (Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, etc) took the blocking focus from his shoulders. The Jags gave him a three-year, $24 million contract to find out.
Jacksonville also devoted more than $14 million (over three years) to special teams ace Jamal Agnew, which feels like the kind of move only the Patriots can pull off. It’s worth noting he’ll only be 26 years old and has been working his way from defensive back to a spot in the offense, but even that carries a lot of Devin Hester/Cordarrelle Patterson “what do we DO with this guy?” vibes. He gained 89 yards on 20 targets last year as a receiver which, gah.
In all, the biggest signing of the early FA period may have been Marvin Jones Jr. Despite RVB’s praise, he’s still a 31-year-old wideout who averaged 3.1 catches and 38.5 yards per game in the first eight games of 2020 before coming alive in the latter half of the Lions’ lost season. He’s a potent red zone threat next to D.J. Chark, but a decline may be forthcoming. That’s not a very exciting way to set up the next era of Jaguars football, but it does feel very on-brand. — CD
Andy Dalton?? Whyyyy?
As I outlined earlier this week, the Bears’ quarterback situation was one of the free agent storylines I was monitoring closely. I did not believe they could pull off a trade for Russell Wilson, despite their obvious thirst for him, because I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
But they still had realistic ways to improve the position. Trade for a young quarterback who still has potential and won’t eat up a ton of cap room, like Marcus Mariota or Sam Darnold. Hold off and see if any other quarterback, like Deshaun Watson, is dealt and what the domino effect of that might be. Look ahead to the draft, which has several high-caliber quarterbacks in this class.
Instead, they signed Andy Dalton on a one-year, $10 million deal. Huh?
To clarify, I think Dalton is a relatively OK quarterback. At this stage of his career, though, he’s most valuable as a backup. So I would actually understand this move —if they didn’t already have Nick Foles on the roster. Dalton is just a slightly better (?), slightly older Foles, minus the postseason success.
The Bears’ biggest hurdle to becoming legit contenders was the quarterback position. Specifically, they needed a major upgrade over NVP Mitchell Trubisky, and this doesn’t do that:
I don’t know what GM Ryan Pace’s plan is here, but to be honest, I never know what his plan is at quarterback. All I ask is that he please trade poor Allen Robinson. — SH