Zach Wilson will make the Jets watchable again
Until, of course, they break him. Plus, the curse corrupting Cardinals' coaching.
The Jets didn’t have to worry about making a difficult decision in the first round of this year’s draft. Their logic was simple; hope for the Jaguars to biff the Trevor Lawrence pick, then happily settle for 2021’s second-best quarterback prospect.
That’s how BYU star Zach Wilson landed in New York. Wilson didn’t look like a guaranteed top five pick headed into last year’s pandemic season, but a stellar 2020 installed him as a franchise cornerstone. Wilson lit Division I competition on fire, raising his completion rate from 62 percent to 73 and turning an unimpressive 11:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio to a 33:3 mark in 12 games last fall. He even added 10 rushing touchdowns to power Brigham Young to its highest postseason ranking since 1996.
Now he has to prove this massive improvement was an indicator of future success rather than an outlier. He aced his pre-draft workouts, suggesting he has the arm strength and athleticism to command an evolving NFL offense:
But looking good in front of scouts and actually producing as a rookie are two very different challenges. Wilson’s quest for relevance on Sundays will require him to drag the league’s 31st-ranked offense to respectability. That’s something the team’s last first round quarterback, Sam Darnold, failed to do. In fact, it’s a rich tradition paved by other Day 1 or 2 selections like Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, and Christian Hackenburg as well. The only quarterback to lead the team in approximate value since 1991 was … Josh McCown. For comparison, a quarterback (mostly Tom Brady, but also Drew Bledsoe and Matt by-god Cassel) has been the Patriots’ most impactful player 17 times in that same span.
Wilson has the chops to break from the Jets’ saddest custom. Here’s why.
Wilson’s 2020 is reminiscent of Joe Burrow’s breakthrough — and Burrow made a solid transition to a hopeless NFL team
The Jets are slated to throw Wilson right into the starting lineup and allow him to learn on the job. Reports from the team’s summer workouts suggest as much. The team’s current QB depth chart — where Wilson is flanked by non-stars James Morgan and Mike White — confirms it.
That’s similar to what the Bengals did last fall with another rookie quarterback who became a top two pick on the basis of a breakthrough final year of college. Burrow found his groove at LSU to put together one of the finest seasons the NCAA’s ever seen en route to a national championship. His gaudy numbers — 5,600 yards, 60 touchdowns, and only six interceptions in 15 games — weren’t a function of safe short passes and long runs after the catch (those definitely happened, but it wasn’t the crux of the Tigers’ passing offense by a long shot). His touch on deep and intermediate passes was undeniable, utilizing his team’s absurd depth at wideout to consistently torch opponents 10+ yards from the line of scrimmage.
That big play success rate is a torch Wilson carried into *his* breakthrough college season. PFF rated him the top quarterback in the nation when it came to intermediate passes (10-19 yards downfield) after completing 69 percent of his passes for more than 15 yards per attempt. He was even better with deep balls (20+ yards) — his 99.9 grade is the highest PFF can award.
It wasn’t like he was throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, either. His top three receivers combined for 60 catches and 878 yards their previous season before Wilson’s breakthrough. If his top option wasn’t open, he had no problem scrolling down his route tree and finding whichever Romney was waiting further down his target list:
This bodes well. Burrow was the guy who effectively broke PFF’s grading curve for quarterbacks. His rookie campaign in Cincinnati was not only good (though sometimes built more on volume than efficiency) but also light years better than the alternative for the Bengals. That built genuine hope for the future -- so much so the team spent its fifth overall pick to reunite Burrow and Chase this spring. If Wilson can follow a similar path he’ll create a similar sparkle in the eyes of fans across New York.
The Jets badly need someone who can throw them into the modern NFL
The BYU quarterback was, by all accounts, ***that guy.*** His ability to sling it will be the balm in Gilead for a Jets team that was awful to watch throughout the brief Sam Darnold era. In those three seasons, New York ranked 29th, 32nd, and 32nd in total yards gained and 23rd, 31st, and 32nd in points scored. Darnold in particular seemed resigned to low-impact plays thanks to Adam Gase’s occasionally baffling playcalling and a lackluster group of targets around him. His average completion distance dropped from 6.7 yards as a rookie (ninth-highest in the NFL) to 4.9 yards last fall (39th-best).
Darnold struggles can be chalked up, in part, to an offensive line that allowed him to get mashed at a bottom five rate and one of the league’s worst collections of skill players. His top wideout in that span was Jamison Crowder, a player so respected by the Jets front office they forced him to take a pay cut this offseason. Last year’s top two wideouts were Chris Herndon IV and Ryan Griffin, who barely had 400 receiving yards between them. The team’s running backs overproduced, but were still mostly bad:
Wilson should inherit a replenished cupboard, but the Jets brought home more of an Aldi haul than a Whole Foods spread. Recent first-round picks Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker will lock down the left side of the offensive line. Corey Davis will join Crowder and recent second-round selections Denzel Mins and Elijah Moore to provide a talented, if unproven, group of wideouts. The running back rotation is still questionable, but Sarah really likes rookie fourth-rounder Michael Carter and she’s usually right about these things!
Davis in particular could ignite a rookie of the year campaign. The former sixth overall pick broke through for the Titans last season, posting career highs in both catches and receiving yards. More importantly, he developed as a legit downfield threat; his 10.7 average yards before catch was a top 20 mark that put him ahead of deep ball savants like T.Y. Hilton, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, and D.J. Chark. He had just three drops in 2020 and pushed Ryan Tannehill to a 123.6 passer rating when targeted.
He could be the foundation that allows Mims — who looks and plays a lot like Davis — to break through in his second year. Mims led the offensively challenged Jets in average target depth (15.3 yards downfield) and may shine with a more talented wideout than Breshad Perriman distracting safeties with vertical routes. No one is going to confuse those two with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but that’s a useful duo.
If Wilson’s blocking holds up and his receiving corps meets its potential, he’ll have a great opportunity to lay the foundation for a stellar career in New York. That’s a very big “if,” and the Jets have typically found ways to drain the optimism around even the sunniest situations lately. Still, Wilson could be good enough to blossom despite the concrete garden that’s been the Jets QB room. — CD
The secret curse that’s haunting the Cardinals
Sports fans like to talk about curses. It’s easier to blame an unseen divine force for thwarting your team’s (and your own) happiness than to attribute their bad luck to randomness or worse, ineptitude.
The Curse of the Bambino, the Curse of the Billy Goat, and the Lombardi Curse were all fun while they lasted, and not just because they helped humble obnoxious fanbases for decades. It’s because there was a story behind each one, a tale of woe that was passed down for generations.
The Arizona Cardinals have one of their own that dates back nearly 100 years. In 1925, the Pottsville Maroons — a real team, not a fictionalized one coached by Jimmy Stewart in a Frank Capra parable — beat the then-Chicago Cardinals in the final week of the season. The NFL declared the Maroons champions, until they played an unsanctioned exhibition game against the University of Notre Dame All-Stars. For that transgression, the league revoked their title and gave it to the Cardinals instead.
The Pottsville Curse has been mostly effective since then. The Cardinals did claim another championship in 1947, but they have never won a Super Bowl (and have appeared in just one).
However, I believe there is a different curse that’s plaguing the Cardinals — one that is 100 percent effective. I’m going to call it the Curse of Paddy Driscoll, trademark pending.
Based on his name, I’m guessing you realize Paddy Driscoll was a football figure from the 1920s. In fact, he was a player and a coach for the Cardinals — the first recognized coach in franchise history. He was a player-coach from 1920-22 and then continued to star as a drop-kick virtuoso for the team through the 1925 season. One of his biggest claims to fame was punting away from Red Grange in the latter’s pro football debut, much to the crowd’s displeasure in a 0-0 Thanksgiving Day game.
The following season, Driscoll was traded to the Bears, where he finished his career as a player and then, years later, as a coach and then team executive.
In that entire time, the Cardinals have never had a coach who has lasted more than six seasons, like a less extreme version of the jinx Tom Riddle put on the Defense Against the Dark Arts teaching position. Most recently, two men came close. Ken Whisenhunt (who led them to their only Super Bowl trip) was fired after his sixth season in Arizona, while Bruce Arians retired, briefly, after his fifth season with the team. (As a reminder for those with Memento disease, he would later un-retire and win a Super Bowl with the Bucs.)
None of this bodes well for Kliff Kingsbury, who is entering his third season as Cardinals coach, who has yet to guide them to the playoffs, and who already shares one thing in common with Driscoll:
Judging by GM Steve Keim’s expectations for the team and quarterback Kyler Murray, this upcoming season could be the make-or-break time for Kingsbury. If the Cardinals can’t get above .500 and miss out on the postseason once again, and if Murray doesn’t take that next step in his development, then Kingsbury might not make it to Year 4.
If they can get over the hump in 2021, though, that’s just the beginning. The real test will come a few years later to see if Kingsbury can be the one who finally breaks through the Curse of Paddy Driscoll, trademark still pending. — SH