2021's NFL comeback candidates
There were a lot of top names on the shelf last year, so the race for the Comeback Player of the Year should be a good one.
All 32 NFL teams will look a little different in 2021 than they did in 2020. Changes to the roster, through free agency, trades, and the draft, will bring new faces who will contribute this coming season. But those players aren’t the only ones who are set to make a fresh impact — some were already on the roster and are prime candidates to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors.
Most years, the CPOTY award goes to a player who has rebounded from a major injury, including the most recent winner, Alex Smith. That could very well happen again, especially after an increase in injuries in 2020. However, there’s another group that will earn consideration when the next NFL Honors roll around: anyone who sat out last season due to Covid concerns.
As such, we’ll welcome an unusually high number of players back to the fold in September. Below, we decided to narrow down the list to those we think will make the biggest difference on the football field this season — and who, in turn, could be Comeback Player of the Year frontrunners.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Like most awards, and like the NFL in general, CPOTY is heavily biased toward quarterbacks. Despite that built-in advantage, Dak Prescott is an easy choice for the player whose return will matter most to his team. In fact, he has the best odds of anyone to be named the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
Before he was lost for the season with a fractured ankle, Prescott was on pace for the best statistical year of his already-great career. He led the league in passing yards and net yards per attempt, and was even on his way to breaking NFL records.
Still, Prescott’s early-season heroics couldn’t save the Cowboys from getting off to a disappointing start in Mike McCarthy’s tenure as head coach. (The defense, which ranked in the bottom third in the league based on both traditional and advanced stats, deserved a lot of the blame.)
But could he have been the difference between the Cowboys winning the NFC East and finishing in third place? Absolutely, especially since 6-10 Dallas was still in contention for the division title in the final week of the season.
As a result, though, the Cowboys will enter 2021 with a healthy Prescott (who has finally gotten his long-overdue extension) and an easier schedulethan Washington, the defending NFC East champs. Even if Prescott doesn’t pick up exactly where he left off, he’s still the best quarterback in the division, by far. Just like every other season of his career, he’ll have the Cowboys in the thick of the NFC East race. If Prescott leads Dallas back to the playoffs, then he’ll be the favorite to take home some hardware at the end of season too. — SH
Von Miller, Edge, Broncos
Since entering the NFL in 2011, Von Miller has only twice had fewer than eight sacks in a season. It happened in 2013, when he played in just nine games; he tore his ACL late that year and then managed to notch 14 sacks the next year. And technically, Miller had fewer than eight sacks last year too, but that’s because he missed the entire season due to an ankle injury.
Now the question is if the 32-year-old Miller can bounce back like he did when he was 25. Broncos coach Vic Fangio has zero doubts he can (in old white guy fashion, he used Phil Mickelson as an example). Miller himself thinks that he’s still the same player he’s always been.
We won’t know for certain until we see it on the field, but there’s one reason — well, besides the 106 regular season sacks and Super Bowl MVP to his name — to believe Miller can still get to the quarterback with regularity. In 2018, Miller put up the second-best sack number (14.5) of his career. He played all season alongside then-rookie Bradley Chubb, who accounted for 12 sacks of his own. Then the next year, Chubb appeared in just four games before tearing his ACL. Miller’s sack total dropped to single digits (8), though he was getting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
If both stay healthy, Miller and Chubb will be playing together in a full season for just the second time, and having a QB-terrorizing pairing like them is extra important in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr, I guess:
Miller’s return won’t fix all of the Broncos’ problems, particularly their issues under center. But it will be a big boost for their solid (and improving) defense. — SH
C.J. Mosley, Linebacker, Jets
Two years ago, C.J. Mosley was one of the Jets’ splashy, big-money additions in free agency. Like Le’Veon Bell, Mosley hasn’t worked out like the Jets had hoped. Unlike Bell, Mosley still has a shot at changing that narrative.
Mosley was active for just two games in 2019 due to injury, then opted out of the 2020 season. He’s coming into 2021 free of the Mensa duo of Adam Gase/Gregg Williams and will be well-rested … or does that mean rusty?
Mosley and his new coach, former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, think he’ll be back to his Pro Bowl form. If so, that’s good news for a defense that has to deal with its share of mobile quarterbacks in the AFC East.
One uncertainty is how Mosley will adjust to the Jets’ new 4-3 defense, but it shouldn’t be too tough of a transition for an athletic linebacker who can make plays from anywhere and is still only 28.
While expectations aren’t very high for the Jets this season, Mosley can anchor an up-and-coming defense and prove that, even after two years removed from major game action, he never really went anywhere. — SH
Joe Burrow, Quarterback, Bengals
Quick aside, holy shit, I kinda forgot just how many high profile players got hurt last season.
Another thing I kinda forgot about was that Joe Burrow was having a decent rookie season before he blew out his left knee. In my defense, it is awfully easy to overlook the Bengals. Through 10 games, the rookie rolled up 13 touchdowns, five interceptions, 2,688 yards, and another three rushing touchdowns. I realize those numbers don’t jump off the page in an era of gaudy QB fantasy stats, but that’s a real nice start to build on.
After a long rehab, all signs point to Burrow being ready to go for Week 1. This year, they added blue chip No. 1 receiver Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth pick in the draft. Burrow’s stats could really leap off the page this year. However, the Bengals better hope that their second-round pick, Cleson tackle Jackson Carman, can shore up that offensive line, because if Burrow gets sacked at a rate like last year, 32 times in 10 games, again this season, he’s in trouble. —RVB
Christian McCaffrey, Running Back, Panthers
McCaffrey is only 24. It just seems like he’s been around forever. He hadn’t missed a game in four seasons until last year, when a cascade of ailments limited his work to just three. I’m sure that has nothing to do with 429 touches during his incredible 2019 season, when he topped 1,000 yards rushing and receiving.
He still managed to score six times in those three games he did play. With Sam Darnold under center in Carolina (related: whyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?), the Panthers will have to lean on McCaffrey just as much as they did two seasons ago. They won’t win enough games to put him in the MVP conversation, but I could easily see him stealing the Comeback award from a quarterback this year, if he can stay healthy. —RVB
A.J. Green, Cardinals
Well, most of the good candidates have already been taken. Let’s go with a guy I °want° to bounce back, even if that seems unlikely.
Green went from perennial Pro Bowl talent to sub-replacement player over the last three seasons. After missing all of 2019 due to an ankle injury, his 2020 comeback was derailed by a lack of connection with rookie QB Burrow and the litany of scrubs who came after. His 5.0 yards per target and 32 yards per game were both career lows by a wide margin.
Now he’ll have to connect with a different former No. 1 overall pick in Arizona. The Cardinals’ efforts to surround Kyler Murray with weapons includes DeAndre Hopkins, second-round picks Andy Isabella and Rondale Moore, and now Green, who signed a one year, $6 million contract with the club. He’ll have less pressure on his shoulders as the second or third option in an aerial-based offense, but should see several opportunities to contribute. Kliff Kingsbury’s club threw the ball 56 percent of the time, including 72 targets for a 37-year-old Larry Fitzgerald.
If Green can get back to even 85 percent of what he once was -- and he’s only 32, so it’s very possible -- he can thrive in the veteran wideout role Fitz so proudly held down in the desert. —CD
Saquon Barkley, Giants
We can’t have McCaffrey in here without the other guy who ruined your fantasy seasons last year. Barkley was awful on the ground in Week 1 last fall and then only made it a quarter into Week 2 before disaster struck. Despite a major dropoff in tailback production thanks to that torn ACL, the Giants don’t seem interested in developing a high level RB2; their current backups are Devontae Booker, Ryquell Armstead, Corey Clement, and Gary Brightwell.
That means Barkley is going to come back to a major workload. Fortunately, there will be some help carrying New York’s offensive burden. General manager Dave Gettleman, fully aware that if quarterback Daniel Jones doesn’t make the leap from “horrible” to “competent” he’s getting fired, has upgraded the passing game with veterans like Kenny Golladay, Kyle Rudolph, and human lottery ticket John Ross. He also traded down in the draft for the first time, netting Florida playmaker Kadarius Toney.
That arsenal will reduce the number of eight-man boxes that impeded Barkley’s progress in his 15-carry, six-yard season opener from 2020. The 235-pound tailback eats up defensive backs. Having more of them on the field to shadow Golladay, Toney, and Sterling Shepard will only make his life easier.
Barkley has plenty to prove in 2021, especially as his general manager deals with the lingering effects of drafting a running back with the second overall pick. Crushing his comeback season would go a long way in stabilizing the Giants -- and make him a reliable season-long fantasy first round pick once more. —CD