The Dak Prescott extension feels about right
The Dak Prescott extension feels about right
Plus, a celebration of franchise tag fallout
Dak Prescott will not be hitting the free agent market. He won’t have to worry about playing a second straight season under the franchise tag, either.
Prescott’s rise from fourth-round draft pick to top 10 starting quarterback was rewarded Monday when Jerry Jones and the Cowboys signed him to a four-year, $160 million contract extension that will pay him no less than $126 million in guarantees. With one move, Prescott’s 2021 more than doubled his prior salary — he’ll make $75 million this year — while simultaneously easing his short-term financial burden for a cash-strapped Cowboy team. Instead of costing $37.7m on a one-year tag, he’ll count only $22.2m against the salary cap this season.
It’s a validation of Prescott’s place in the league. He emerged from eye-opening, low-impact, low-risk field general his first two seasons — 218 passing yards per game and 45 passing touchdowns in 32 games — to the kind of prolific gunslinger capable of throwing for 330 yards per game and 39 TDs in his last 20 games before last fall’s broken ankle. That injury ended his season but also convinced Jones he’s worth a big-time investment; the Cowboys stuttered to a 4-7 finish and fell from the league’s third-ranked scoring offense to No. 28.
That 25-spot difference was worth nine figures to Jones, who finally buckled down and rewarded a player who’d never had a losing season in his first four seasons in the league — and earned $2.72 million total in the process. Prescott finally got the payday he was due. Waiting out Jones and rejecting lowball contract offers paid off. Moreso for him and not his franchise, because ...
Waiting cost the Cowboys so much money
The standoff between Jones and Prescott threatened to leave Dallas without a franchise quarterback and doom the team to another 25 years of wandering the NFC desert. Instead, the two sides came to a long-term agreement — and it cost the Cowboys much more than it could have.
This is great news for Prescott, who has done nothing but evolve as a quarterback in the NFL. It could be tough for his supporting cast, however, as he joins the ranks of dazzling, expensive skyscrapers Jones insists on building atop the growing swamp of poor defensive and line-building decisions. Prescott, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, and DeMarcus Lawrence will each carry average salaries of at least $15 million through 2023, which will make it difficult to punch up the lackluster defense and degraded offensive line that proved fatal last fall.
But Jones loves stars, and he got his biggest one locked down for the near future … at a tremendous price
When you factor in Prescott’s franchise year in 2020, the math on the quarterback’s post-rookie contract deal in Dallas comes out to five years and $197.7 million (with incentives capable of boosting that to $201.7m). With 2020 included, the Cowboys will have paid Dak nearly $164 million in total guaranteed money — *significantly* more than the record-setting $141m Patrick Mahomes earned in one fell swoopwhen the Chiefs inked him to his extension last summer.
Let’s compare this to the extensions 2016 draftmates Carson Wentz and Jared Goff signed in 2019 and see how much money Jones could have saved by locking down Prescott earlier in his career.
The Rams awarded Goff a $134m deal with $110m in guarantees — an average annual value of $33.5m — to keep him under contract through 2024. The Eagles gave Wentz a $128m deal with roughly $108m in guarantees — an average annual value of $32m thanks to injury concerns — to keep him under contract through 2024. The Cowboys’ last two deals with Prescott will pay him at least $50 million more in guarantees than either of his colleagues. His average salary in that span will be $6 million more than Goff was contracted for.
Extending Prescott early was a risk. Both Goff and Wentz became cap albatrosses (albatrossi?) after their level of play eroded. Neither currently remains with the team that drafted, then extended them despite early success.
But Prescott looked like the best player of the three before the offseason that begat nine-figure deals for his class’s other QBs. When Wentz and Goff faded in 2019, Prescott transformed himself into a high-volume passer with a rating nearly seven points higher than either of those two. This would have been a tremendous opportunity for Jones to lock his guy down for something in the market of Russell Wilson’s four-year, $140 million deal. It wouldn’t have been egregiously more than the team was reportedly offering in terms of annual salary last year:
Instead, Prescott and his team got pretty much everything for which they’d hoped. The four-year deal benefits the QB, who will be nearing his next extension before the 2024 season — when he’ll only be 30 years old and still in his prime years. He even worked in a promise that he won’t be tagged again when this deal is up. When all is said and done, his total earnings from 2020 to 2029 could eclipse the half-billion dollar contract Patrick Mahomes signed.
The Cowboys aren’t completely tied up in cap woes, however
Jones isn’t done paying up for his star quarterback yet, but his decision to wait may not be as damaging as it currently appears. That’s because the NFL may be days away from announcing a new rights deal that would likely more than double current TV revenue thanks, in part, to the addition of a 17th game on the upcoming schedule. That will send a reviving jolt into a moribund cap salary cap situation. 2021’s $180ish million limit could rocket up to $225m or more. That would make the deferred cash on Prescott’s deal a lot more palatable — and free up the room needed to make the defensive upgrade Dallas badly needs (or to sign Ezekiel Elliott for six more years. Either/or).
There’s a good chance this winds up looking like a great deal for both sides, especially as market-resetting extensions come down the line for Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson — all of whom are eligible now that they’ve played through three of the five years included on their rookie deals. Prescott’s guarantees will remain eye-opening, but he may not even enter next season as one of the top three highest-paid players in the game.
But if the first quarter of 2020 was any indication, he might end up playing like one. — CD
At least Allen Robinson is getting a lot of money
Chicago, a team already slated to be $2 million over this year’s salary cap, franchised tagged Robinson. Barring some shocking front office maneuvers and the reversal of some four decades of franchise history, 2021 will mark the 11th straight year Robinson has had to toil with a quarterback more likely to be the punchline to a talk radio joke than a Pro Bowl vote-getter.
Who can the Bears add at quarterback now that they need to shed salary headed into the roster-building stage of the offseason? This makes mid-level trade targets like Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold a tougher sell, and any free agent addition will either have to be excessively cheap or signed to a multi-year deal that pushes the bulk of their cap hit into 2022 or beyond. Keeping Robinson undoubtedly makes Chicago’s receiving corps better, but it may come at the expense of sustaining a long lineage of frustrating quarterbacks whose peaks top off at “mediocre.”
God dammit, Bears. — CD
That’s a wrap on the franchise tag
The franchise tag deadline has now passed, with technically 10 but really nine players getting tagged. Here’s a quick rundown on who I’m most happy for, and who I feel sorry for, as we head into the new league year next week.
Time to celebrate
Shaq Barrett
It made perfect sense for the Buccaneers to place the franchise tag on Barrett last year. The undrafted free agent went from 14 total sacks in five years with the Broncos to a league-leading 19.5 in Tampa. So they kept him around, on the one-year tender, to see if Barrett’s 2019 season was an aberration. Although his production unsurprisingly declined, Barrett still had eight sacks and was an effective pass rusher for the Super Bowl champs. Now he gets the chance to cash in, with the Bucs or a new team.
Kenny Golladay and Will Fuller
Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin would’ve been the most coveted receivers in free agency if they hadn’t been tagged. But they were, while Golladay and Fuller were spared. That opens them up for big paydays. Bonus: They can finally escape the hapless franchises that drafted them.
Anthony Harris and John Johnson
Just like with wide receiver, the safety market was expected to be booming once free agency began (Pro Football Focus called the position the best one this cycle). It took a bit of a hit when three safeties — Marcus Maye, Justin Simmons, and Marcus Williams — received the tag. But that could be good news for Harris and Johnson, a couple of other top 25 free agents— specifically, for their bank accounts.
Dak Prescott
Prescott *did* get the franchise tag again, but the move was to pretty much guarantee he won’t be tagged a third time in his career. His long-awaited new contract finally came with the $160 million extension, a number that could’ve been a lot lower if Jerry Jones hadn’t dragged his feet for two years. So Prescott gets a huge deal, long-term security, and he’s making Jones pay more for his hesitation.
Joe Thuney
The Patriots declined to tag Thuney for the second year in a row, meaning the 28-year-old can hit free agency. With Washington tagging Brandon Scherff again, Thuney will be the top guard on the open market (by a lot!). Get that money, big man.
Teams in the market for a tight end
The Chargers didn’t give Hunter Henry the tag this year. Same for the Titans with Jonnu Smith. Both are young, athletic tight ends who can be the favorite new red zone target for a couple of lucky quarterbacks.
Time to wallow
Allen Robinson
The franchise tag is inherently anti-player, so I never cheer when anyone receives it, but I feel bad for Robinson most of all this year. He doesn’t get the chance to test the free agent waters when his value has never been higher, and he’ll once again be stuck with whatever potato sack is under center for the Bears in 2021. With his Job-like quarterback luck, it’ll probably be this guy:
Aaron Rodgers, for now anyway
Not only is Rodgers set to lose his longtime center, Corey Linsley, but now leading rusher Aaron Jones will be a free agent (unless the Packers can work out a long-term deal with him before next week). At least it’s nice to know that some things never change, like the Packers making offseason moves (or not making moves) that will do nothing but enrage their MVP quarterback.
The Saints’ cap guy
Every year, the Saints’ salary cap situation is messier than the streets of New Orleans the day after Mardi Gras. And every year, they managed to pull off whatever financial gymnastics is needed to stay under the cap. The Saints are currently a league-worst $58 million over the cap and still decided to keep Marcus Williams around on an $11 million tag. Luckily for them, they didn’t lose their salary cap guru to the Falcons. Unluckily for him, this will be his biggest challenge yet. — SH