What should the five most interesting teams at the 2021 NFL Draft do?

It's not all about quarterbacks, mostly, but not all!

We already know who the top two picks of the 2021 NFL Draft will be. Trevor Lawrence will be a Jaguar. Zach Wilson has -5000 odds to become a Jet. And while we don’t know who the 49ers will choose, we do know it will be a quarterback after throwing a hefty ransom Miami’s way for the right to make Thursday night’s third selection.

Then things get interesting. Teams with top 10 draft picks will hold auctions hoping to entice QB-needy clubs into an overpay. Wideouts with game-changing speed and versatility will pair with general managers in search of the next Justin Jefferson. The Giants will make a pick that fails to improve their team in any meaningful way. 

The first round of this year’s event will be loaded with surprises that reduce the hit rate of even the best mock draft to somewhere around 20 percent. There will be common sense moves and decisions that seem to make absolutely no sense. The biggest stories of 2021’s offseason will likely revolve around what five teams at major inflection points do on Day 1. 

So let’s make things a little easier for them.

What should the Atlanta Falcons do with the fourth overall pick?

Christian D’Andrea: Wait and see if Justin Fields is on the board. If he’s not, they should trade back to amass the kind of young defensive assets they so badly need. Bringing an instant-impact playmaker like Ja’Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts aboard would make an entertaining team even more fun to watch, but it probably wouldn’t make Atlanta a contender in 2021 or beyond.

Instead, GM Terry Fontenot can signal a new era in Georgia by amassing inexpensive draft picks capable of balancing off a top-heavy cap sheet. A modest move backward — say into the 10-15 range — would return at least one bonus first-round pick and put the Falcons in position to take an impact defender like Micah Parsons or Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and a couple more in the early stages of Round 2. And hell, this might be a good strategy even if Fields is available, since Fontenot might be able to trade back and still snag his future franchise QB should things get chaotic.

Ryan Van Bibber: Christian’s scenario is definitely the best option. While Matt Ryan’s contract stinks, he’s definitely still above average. He’s going to be 36 this year, which can be early middle age for a certain level of QBs now, and he’s really never had to contend with the kind of injuries that usually shorten a career. I think he’s a fine option under center for another year or two.

On the other hand, maybe the Falcons are best served trading down. Surely they can get a couple of first-round picks over the next year or two. Those smaller rookie contracts would make it a lot easier to live with Ryan’s contract on the books for two more years. 

If they went that route, Kyle Pitts could take over for tight end Hayden Hurst, a pretty underwhelming free agent signing last year. That would give them a new top-flight playmaker on offense for the inevitable departure of Julio Jones after this season. I’d assume they re-sign Calvin Ridley after this season, and that would give them a real solid 1-2 punch for offensive skill guys. 

Sarah Hardy: As much sense as Fields or Trey Lance (with a chance to redshirt behind Ryan) would be, I think the Falcons should trade down, too, and focus on fixing their defense. More than anything, the Falcons need a cornerback or pass rusher, but this is not the year to draft one within the top five picks. 

At least one team will likely want to trade up to No. 4 for a quarterback. If the Falcons only trade down a few spots (with, say, the Broncos), then they’d be in a prime spot to nab one of the top cornerbacks (like Patrick Surtain II or Jaycee Horn). If the Falcons trade down 10+ spots (with, say, the Patriots), then they could go get perhaps the best edge rusher in this class, Kwity Paye. 

What should the Detroit Lions do with the seventh overall pick?

CD: Don’t draft a quarterback. Do draft a top wideout talent so their 2022 rookie QB isn’t totally screwed.

With the Matthew Stafford era over in Michigan, the Lions will be taking a Jaguars year in 2021. The goal this fall will be to churn up next year’s draft board like The Beatles conquering the Billboard charts of the 60s. Detroit will be bad no matter what, so it might as well be the best at it. 

Next year’s QB crop isn’t as loaded as this year’s, but the top prospect next spring — Sam Howell? Kedon Slovis? Desmond Ridder? — should be better than the fifth-best guy this spring. Drafting a wideout like DeVonta Smith or Chase or, if Detroit gets lucky* Pitts would help restock a pass-catching corps that lost Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay this offseason.

*Detroit never gets lucky

SH: I don’t want to sound like a broken record but: trade down! That is, unless Ja’Marr Chase is still available at No. 7. I would not recommend passing on him. Otherwise, this class is loaded with potential stars at the wide receiver position. The Lions could find their own Justin Jefferson (perhaps Rashod Bateman?) if they moved down the draft board. Plus, with only six picks this year, they could use the extra capital. 

RVB: It seems fitting for the Lions to have a great receiver as the main draw for a crappy team. Salute to Megatron. Could they get a quarterback with that pick? Maybe? It’d be hard to justify a second season with Jared Goff on top of the depth chart.  

What should the Denver Broncos do with the ninth overall pick?

CD: Use it as ammunition to trade up for a quarterback. Denver probably can’t get a win-now QB with Lawrence and Wilson locked down, but it *can* find a potential franchise cornerstone or, at the very least, find someone better than Drew Lock to top its depth chart. 

Lock backslid mightily after a useful, if unimpressive, five-game audition as a rookie. The other passers currently under contract are Brett Rypien and Jeff Driskel. This is a bad scene.

The good news is the rest of the lineup is loaded with talent, and it may just take a game-manager QB to push the Broncos to their first winning season since 2016. Should Mac Jones slide, he could be the kind of high-floor prospect who can deliver in Year 1. Trey Lance would be more of a project, but also has a higher ceiling. Either could probably deliver the kind of baseline play Lock gave Denver in 2020 (16 touchdowns, a league-worst 15 interceptions, and a 75.4 passer rating).

SH: Well, the first two teams on this list need a trade partner, if they decide to follow my advice; enter the Broncos, who need more playmaking from the quarterback position. Of course, they could also wait to see how the draft starts to unfold and hope that one of the Tier 1 quarterbacks falls to them at No. 9, but that carries a huge risk of getting outsmarted by Bill Belichick.  

If, for some reason, they decide Lock deserves another chance to prove himself as a franchise quarterback, they could also just target a top prospect at another position of need, such as OT Rashawn Slater or LB Micah Parsons.

RVB: What would it take to get Teddy Bridgewater? They have to keep themselves as close to the Chiefs as possible, and another way to do that would find defensive talent for the front seven with that pick too. 

What should the Philadelphia Eagles do with the 12th overall pick?

CD: Take the best player available (or wait for a Godfather trade offer), no matter the position. The Eagles are following the Lions’ route of bottoming out, especially with $33 million of dead cap space still attached to current Indianapolis Colt Carson Wentz. This is going to be a bad year for Philly, who are throwing Jalen Hurts into Gardner Minshew duty.

The Eagles ranked 29th in passing DVOA last season and 24th in passing defense. 12th could be a great spot to stop the slide for any of 2021’s top four pass catchers OR to take what could be the draft’s first defensive back (Patrick Surtain, Jaycee Horn, or maybe late-rising safety Trevon Moehrig could fit the bill). Even an offensive lineman like Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater makes sense. Whomever provides the best draft value, regardless of where he plays, should be the guy.

SH: I wouldn’t overthink this one. Take the best receiver available and hope he’s not cursed by whatever WR-hating god has brought his wrath unto the Eagles the past two seasons.

RVB: They could stand to get a cornerback here too. Maybe Surtain is available? I am convinced that they won’t go for a quarterback, but the 12th spot does kind of make me wonder about how the QB order shakes out in the draft. With such a well-regarded group of players this year, I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to see those players going off the board way sooner than we’re all expecting them to go. We’ve seen this movie before, teams get desperate. Plus, it makes sense to have a potential franchise QB with a fifth-year contract option for pennies on the dollar. Like I said, I don’t think that’s the direction the Eagles will go, but it could really start to send teams scrambling to the phone lines looking to move up. 

What should the New England Patriots do with the 15th overall pick?

CD: Trade up if a top five QB prospect slides out of the top 10 picks. Trade down if not.

Bill Belichick rarely trades up, and when he does, he rarely overpays. This is not a great year to try to vault up the draft board and into the top five after San Francisco’s massive deal for #3. The Patriots need a franchise QB, but giving up future firsts — which in Belichick’s eyes are really dozens of future seconds and thirds — is a tough sell for a coach/GM who’s never done so on draft day.

Should New England stand pat, there will be plenty of talented players that could beef up its roster. Linebackers like Parsons or Owusu-Koramoah would rebuild a championship unit, and project edge defenders like Jaelan Phillips or Rhode Island high school legend Kwity Paye could punch up an underpowered pass rush. 

But a handful of those players are destined to languish until the late first or second rounds, which means Belichick could pick up extra picks, take his typical shotgun approach to landing talent, and still get one of the guys he targeted at No. 15. That’d be the smart move if a QB becomes too expensive an acquisition, so that’s probably what the Patriots will do.

SH: I like that Belichick has been willing to try something new after the Patriots’ worst season since his first year as head coach. First, the Patriots spent big in free agency, which is not Belichick’s usual MO. Next, he could draft a quarterback in the first round for the first time ever, and he could trade up to do so. 

That’s what I think the Patriots should do — as long as they’re not trading up for Mac Jones. Otherwise, they can just stay where they are and select the best player available. Or, maybe the old Belichick will return and he’ll trade down to accumulate more picks. Isn’t it nice to know, for once, that we don’t know what the Patriots will do in the draft? 

RVB: I like the idea of the Patriots trading up, but like Sarah said, NOT for Mac Jones. No team over the years has had a better handle on the match between pick value and players. Usually we see that play out with Belichick trading down, but there’s value in trading up too. Maybe they can do it without paying a king’s ransom, like if they’re only moving up five to seven slots. Then again, if Belichick feels like he can get the quarterback he wants, wouldn’t that be worth a future first-rounder or more? I think it would. 

On the other hand, let’s not discount the scenario that Belichick nabs someone like Jamie Newman late on day two and turning him into a superstar, just because cursed Patriot magic.