The Texans are gonna be a nightmare in 2021 (and that's okay!)
Plus, the Bills are better at this public health thing than we thought.
Deshaun Watson was, by several measures, one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL last season. This did not matter. His Texans not only failed to win more than four games, but also passed up the top three draft pick that was supposed to put a slight glimmer on their ongoing crapulence thanks to Bill O’Brien’s horrific general managing.
The good news is that O’Brien is gone after being fired in the middle of last year’s implosion. The bad news is the mess he left behind remains. A roster with limited star power will be without starters like JJ Watt and Will Fuller this fall. Watson might not be there either; he kicked off his offseason amid trade rumors before a number of sexual assault accusations threw his NFL career into doubt. No quarterback in the league has a murkier future, and any momentum he’d built with 2020’s on-field play has been erased by his actions off the field.
That leaves first-year head coach David Culley -- a longtime NFL assistant whose full-time coordinator background is limited to a 1989-90 stint running the offense at UTEP -- to oversee Houston’s chattering skeleton of a roster. He doesn’t know who his quarterback will be. He has only three former Texan first round picks to build around on his roster, and one is Watson. He has a 32-man free agent class to introduce to his system, but the most expensive addition was punter Cameron Johnston.
So just how bad will this team be in 2021?
The Texans have the worst roster in football
Over in the NHL, the newly-founded Seattle Kraken will build their debut roster through an expansion draft that allows them their pick of players not quite important enough to be protected by their current teams.
That’s what this current Texans build reminds me of. A bunch of hastily assembled castoffs, some moderate upside young veterans, and one or two building blocks for the future.
The only real franchise player at the moment is Laremy Tunsil, who Miami turned into five first round picks via 2019’s trade with O’Brien. Watson would also qualify if Houston had any idea when or if he’ll take the field in a Texans jersey again. Zach Cunningham, he of the recent $58 million extension, will count if he shows he’s capable of generating a little more heat in the middle of the field this fall.
Then come the players with familiar names and their best seasons behind them; Whitney Mercilus. David Johnson. Brandin Cooks. Randall Cobb. Bradley Roby. Mark Ingram. Rex Burkhead, for some reason.
They’re supported by this year’s 30+ man free agent haul designed to build inexpensive depth. Only one member of that class is signed for more than two seasons, which provides some useful insight into GM Nick Caserio’s blueprint. This year isn’t about winning, it’s about creating opportunities for the future.
Even with Tunsil and Watson’s top-of-the-market contracts, Houston is slated to have more than $23 million in salary cap space in 2022 (assuming they jettison Cobb and Cooks). That number skyrockets to $103 million in 2023. The team will also have all their draft picks in the first three rounds for only the second time since 2018 next spring.
That makes 2021 (and likely 2022) a gap year. A Jaguars year. A chance to sink all the way to the top of the draft order and possibly raffle off some productive veterans for extra picks. And with the aforementioned lineup and Watson’s future unclear at best, it’s tough to argue against it.
When could Houston contend again?
When Houston had an actual expansion roster, it took the franchise seven years before it turned in a winning season and nine before the club’s first playoff berth. These Texans should have better luck, though Watson’s availability will severely impact that timeline.
The Texans weren’t as bad as their record suggested last year. They were 2-8 in games decided by eight points or fewer last season, reflecting a combination of bad luck and awful timing. Their expected win/loss total pegged them at a little better than six wins, which still sucks but at least would have dulled the pain of trading away that year’s first round pick. Houston either had the lead or were tied in the fourth quarter of six of those losses, which reflects just how brutal their 30th-ranked defense really was.
It’s tough to feel much better about that unit given its lack of upper-crust talent, but Caserio and Culley took a very Patriots-esque approach to begin fixing it. Former starters and early-round picks like Christian Kirksey, Vernon Hargreaves, Shaq Lawson, Jordan Jenkins, Derek Rivers, and Desmond King will all get the chance to rebuild their NFL value with the ample snaps a bad Texans team should provide.
Last year’s 21st-ranked special teams unit will get a major boost thanks to the depth acquired this offseason. Johnston will be a modest upgrade over Brian Anger at punter. Acquiring Andre Roberts, a Pro Bowler each of the last three seasons, gives the team an established kick and punt return threat. All those aforementioned veteran defenders can also provide help in the third phase of the game.
That brings us to an offense that could be led by Tyrod Taylor or rookie Davis Mills at varying points in 2021. David Johnson was better than expected last season but will turn 30 this season. Phillip Lindsay’s yards per carry AND yards per target numbers have dropped every year since his breakthrough 2018 rookie campaign. Mark Ingram is old. Rex Burkhead is an electrical plug with several weird prongs, and the only team with the correct adapter to turn him on is the Patriots.
Brandin Cooks had a big comeback season in 2020, in part because Watson had to throw the ball non-stop and there were few other options -- he had 44 more targets than anyone else on the team. He’ll have to carry a similar load unless unproven players like Nico Collins or Isaiah Coulter step up or veteran additions Chris Conley, Alex Erickson, or Donte Moncrief take advantage of this vacuum to have productive seasons. At the very least the blocking should be ...fine; flanking Tunsil will be former Patriot Marcus Cannon, 2019 first/second round picks Tytus Howard and Max Scharping, and former Seahawk Justin Britt.
So, like I said, this team will not be good, but that’s ok! Houston would have gained very little by struggling for contention this season. O’Brien’s management left the cupboard bare in terms of young, inexpensive talent. Culley’s to-do list should read:
Identify emerging talent
Stockpile assets and cap space for 2023
Embarrass myself less than Bill O’Brien
with a check mark penciled in next to that last one because hoooooo buddy, did you see that roster he left behind?
If Watson comes back, you can expect a few more wins from the Texans. But not more than five, because that isn’t the plan. Houston is a tear-down job this year and likely the next, but there’s a dim light on the horizon for wayward fans who’ve spent the last two decades wandering in search of something better than a trip to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. - CD
The Bills aren’t the worst!
I owe the Bills an apology. I had assumed they were the most vaccine-hostile team in the NFL, but that’s not the case. On Thursday, the AP reported that four teams were not even 50 percent vaccinated: the Chargers, Cardinals, Colts, and Washington Football Team. On Friday, that was down to two just the Colts and Washington.
I can’t say I’m surprised by either. The Colts reside in a state that’s in the bottom quarter of vaccination rate (57.3 percent, just a hair better than Missouri). A few members of WFT had been vocal about not getting the vaccine, and despite Ron Rivera’s best efforts, a majority is still not taking the safe, simple, smart option to protect themselves, their loved ones, anyone they might come in contact with, and their cancer-surviving coach. Then again, when has this franchise ever been anything but dysfunctional?
In the last five or so years, there’s an ever-growing list of things I’ll never be able to forgive of my fellow citizens — the inaction on climate change because of selfish, money-grubbing men in power; the fealty to a narcissistic, dangerous liar; the politicalization of public health and a life-saving shot.
It’s easy to get lost in the despair of it all, and I try hard, sometimes failing, not to let it overwhelm me. I know that attitude doesn’t help anything, and to be honest, it’s lazy and defeatist to live in a constant state of doomscrolling.
So I try to take wins where I see them. The Bills are not one of the least-vaccinated teams, even after a publicly hesitant Josh Allen, Jordan Poyer’s anti-vaxxer wife’s tirades, and an increasingly unhinged Cole Beasley.
They’ve done better than I expected them to do, and maybe that’s the tiniest bit of hope I needed that others who have refused to get the vaccine can still be convinced, even if it’s just those at the margins. — SH