4 questions I have about the 1st round of the 2024 NFL Draft

Only three weeks to go!

As I said last week, I planned to turn my attention to the NFL Draft as soon as April arrived. Then the NFL had to go and drop a huge trade on us: The Bills are sending Stefon Diggs to the Texans. 

I like this move for the Texans. They’re continuing to go all-in while taking advantage of having a QB on a rookie deal. C.J. Stroud gets a big-time weapon in Diggs and one who complements the other receivers on the team. And all for the price of a future second-round draft pick that they received from the Vikings. 

It makes sense from the Bills’ side of things, too. Diggs carries a massive cap hit ($19 million) and had been noticeably frustrated in Buffalo. 

Perhaps the Bills won’t be alone in this regard. The 49ers could deal Brandon Aiyuk, who has been the subject of trade rumors for a while now, or maybe the Bengals will bid farewell to Tee Higgins. After all, this would be as good of a time as any to have an opening at wide receiver. This upcoming draft class is loaded with premium talent at the position. 

Ah yes, the draft, the event that kicks off in just three short — or, if the discourse becomes too painful, three long — weeks. As I did last year, I decided that the best way to start studying up for the draft was to put together a list of questions I had about how the first round could unfold.

How many QBs will be selected in the top 10 — and where will they go?

I suppose I should amend that second part to “and where will the quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams go?”

For the first time in three years, there is total certainty about what will happen with the first pick: the Bears will draft Williams and almost everyone will agree that it’s the right decision. 

After that is where things get interesting. As a reminder, this is “lying season,” so please take any draft rumors you come across with a grain of salt. Like I said last year when the Texans selected Stroud after the weird smear campaign against him, “we can remember not to pay these kinds of flimsy pre-draft reports any mind in the future, right?”

All we know for sure about the second pick is that the Commanders will draft a quarterback. For most of the 2023 season, Drake Maye was expected to be the second QB taken after Williams, but then Heisman winner Jayden Daniels started climbing up the rankings. So did Michigan’s  J.J. McCarthy, though to a lesser degree. I’ve been keeping track of how different publications are ranking this year’s prospects. The highest I’ve seen McCarthy rank is 14th overall (via Mel Kiper), and the lowest is 54th (via Bleacher Report). His average puts him at about No. 25, but several teams need a quarterback this year, which means there could be an early run on the position. 

For a while, Daniels overtook Maye as the most likely choice for the Commanders due to his apparent fit with OC Kliff Kingsbury. Now, however, Maye is back to being the betting favorite. That’s the way I would lean right now, too. As Bill Connelly wrote in his draft QB breakdown, Daniels is sack-prone and needs, perhaps more than any other top prospect, the right environment to excel. I’m not sure that Washington, with its sack-happy OL, is the place for him. 

There was even a little bit of buzz the other week that McCarthy could be the second pick. I’m inclined to chalk this up to the usual pre-draft nonsense, like a year ago when there were whispers that Will Levis could be the No. 2 pick or three years ago when “Mac Jones to the 49ers” seemed like a legit outcome. 

While McCarthy’s stock has risen in the past couple months, he is much more of a question mark than Maye or Daniels. No one knows if McCarthy can put a team on his back because Michigan never asked him to. Maybe that’s because, as his fans would say, UM didn’t need him to do much more than manage games. But here’s my question: Why not at least let him shine every now and then? The Wolverines’ coaching staff could have helped McCarthy’s development by giving him more to do, especially in games they were already going to win and especially when they knew what the other teams were doing, courtesy of Connor Stalions. And they still didn’t!

That doesn’t mean McCarthy is a bust waiting to happen. He just turned 21 and potentially has a high ceiling, particularly if he lands in an offense where he’s not expected to be a main playmaker. I simply think the risk is too great for the Commanders to take that chance. 

That said, the talk about McCarthy going in the top 10 seems real to me, even if the noise surrounding him — like Jim Harbaugh constantly gassing him up — means it’s not a slam dunk. So much depends on what the teams with the next three picks decide to do. 

The Patriots will probably grab a quarterback at No. 3, most likely whoever is remaining between Maye and Daniels (I’m also not buying the gossip about New England’s de facto GM pushing for McCarthy). But we can’t discount the idea of them trading down and waiting until later to get a QB. 

If the Pats stay put, the Cardinals at No. 4 and the Chargers at No. 5 could also work out a trade with a franchise that, unlike them, is looking for a new quarterback. The Vikings, who own two first-round picks, are the obvious candidate to trade into the top 10 for one. McCarthy is currently the favorite to wind up in Minnesota, and if so, he’d be walking into about the best situation he could ask for as a rookie. 

I wouldn’t bet Bo Nix is drafted in the top 10, but I won’t write it off, either. Michael Penix Jr. is much more of a long shot, and may or may not hear his name called on Day 1. The Broncos, at No. 12, are a popular landing spot for Nix. But if they like another quarterback better, or feel like they have to trade up a few picks to snag Nix, then it’s possible that five quarterbacks will be off the board within the first 10 selections. 

I still think four quarterbacks in the top 10 is what we should expect, even if the draft tends to throw us curveballs every year. 

Will there be any shakeup in the WR order?

For two years now, Marvin Harrison Jr. has been WR1. As in, if he were eligible for the draft last year, he would have been the first receiver taken. That should still be the case this year, though it’s perhaps not quite as unanimous as it once was. 

I’ve seen a couple different draft analysts rank, or suggest that others rank, Route Man Marv (™ – C.J. Stroud) below Malik Nabers and/or Rome Odunze. I don’t know if that’s out of boredom, or contrarians liking attention, or some talking heads getting way too agitated about MHJ not working out at the combine and his pro day (fwiw, the NFL teams he spoke to told him that he did not have to work out). Or maybe some folks are just overthinking things.

I’m not saying that everyone has to agree on every prospect, and no player is without his faults, but there is also no major weakness in Marv’s game. He produced at an elite level, first with Stroud as his QB and then when he downgraded to Kyle McCord, while being constantly double-teamed. He once caught a ball like this:

I just don’t see how any WR-needy team could pass on him. 

If the Cardinals hold at No. 4, then I’m pretty confident they’ll draft Harrison and this entire “debate” will be forgotten. If the Cardinals trade down, however, then maybe there will be a little bit of shuffling. The Chargers at No. 5 are in desperate need of receiver help after trading Keenan Allen to the Bears, and they could prefer Nabers’ athleticism or Odunze’s size. Nothing would surprise me about Jim Harbaugh, and honestly, I don’t really want to try to figure out what he’s ever thinking about (“milk” is the safe answer). 

Most mock drafts I’ve seen have Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze going in that order, often 4-5-6 (with the Giants landing Odunze). But again, that’s if no team trades up into the top six for a quarterback.

Those three should be the first receivers selected, but they won’t be the only ones taken on the first night of the draft. Brian Thomas Jr. is the near-consensus fourth receiver in this draft class, and after him, the opinions are all over the place. Some draftniks like Texas’ Adonai Mitchell and others prefer his teammate, 40-yard dash record breaker Xavier Worthy. Georgia’s Ladd McConkey has his fans, as does FSU’s Keon Coleman and Oregon’s Troy Franklin.

I’m not sure how many will end up as first-round picks. The Bills are now a prime candidate to go after a receiver later in the first round. So are, possibly, the Bears (with the No. 9 pick), Jaguars, Chiefs, and Jets. Depending on how many address the position immediately, there’s a chance that a record number of wide receivers will be drafted on Day 1.

Who will be the first defensive player drafted?

Offense will dominate the first round of the draft this year. We’ve already discussed quarterbacks and receivers, but offensive linemen will come flying off the board in Round 1, too. 

I feel like a broken record at this point, but which teams trade up, and where, will determine when the first defensive player is drafted.

As the order currently stands, the Falcons are the first team most likely to zero in on a defensive prospect, and they don’t pick until No. 8. That would only be the second time this millennium — it also happened in 2021 — that a defender wasn’t drafted in the first seven picks. 

The Falcons’ biggest needs are at edge and cornerback. The most-mocked player to them is Alabama edge Dallas Turner, with UCLA edge Laiatu Latu and Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell showing up in a couple mocks too. By my calculations, Turner and Mitchell are the top-rated prospects at their positions. 

Of course, there’s no guarantee that Atlanta even stays at No. 8. The Falcons could work out a trade with a franchise looking for QB/WR/OT help and end up picking later in the first round. In that case, we might see an unprecedented scenario: zero defensive players drafted in the top 10. It has never happened in the common draft era.

Will any teams target a position that they rarely have in the early rounds?

The other day, I came across a chart that laid out the last time every franchise drafted each position, special teamers excluded, in the first two rounds. For example, it’s only been one year since the Texans drafted a QB that high, but it’s been 21 years — or when Stroud was around 18 months old — since they took a tight end early. (That tight end, Bennie Joppru, was a second-round pick who appeared in just one game for Houston. Luckily for the Texans, their first pick that year was Andre Johnson.) 

That won’t change this year. The Texans are set at tight end, with Dalton Schultz and Brevin Jordan both still around, and this isn’t a particularly strong draft at that position anyway. Most likely, Houston will use its first pick on a defensive player. And maybe its second too, especially after the trade for Diggs. 

But what about some of the streaks that could end? Kansas City hasn’t drafted an offensive tackle in Round 1 or 2 since using the first overall pick on Eric Fisher in 2013, but there is an opening on the roster. Donovan Smith, KC’s starting left tackle in 2023, remains a free agent. Quite a few mock drafts have the Chiefs addressing the position with either of their first two picks, though there’s no consensus on what they’ll do.

The Rams will almost assuredly bolster their defense with their first-round pick — the first time in the Sean McVay era when they’ve had a first-rounder. They have holes to fill at basically every spot on defense, most notably at DT after Aaron Donald decided to retire and await his Hall of Fame induction. LA hasn’t selected a defensive tackle in the first two rounds since Donald 10 years ago. Texas defensive lineman Byron Murphy II is a popular pick for the Rams in mock drafts, but they could also go with an edge defender or cornerback. It’s been just as long as they took a CB in one of those rounds, and longer — 2011 — since they did so with an edge. 

The longest droughts belong at the quarterback position. The Seahawks haven’t used a high draft pick on a quarterback since 1993 (Rick Mirer, No. 2 overall), while the Saints have done it just once in franchise history: Archie Manning, also the No. 2 overall pick, all the way back in 1971. 

It’s highly improbable, but not completely impossible, that either team will change course in this draft.