Let's break down the NFL's dishiest trade rumors

It's been a gossipy week around the league.

The NFL rumor mill is always in overdrive in April, aka silly season. Most of the buzz is usually concerning the draft, though this year we’re getting a wide range of gossip that includes both current and former players (no, Tom Brady and Reese Witherspoon are not dating, in case you were wondering). 

Below, I picked the three most headline-grabbing rumors that I’ve seen this week. Then I examined why each could be true, why it might not be, and how likely it is to happen.

Quick note: Tweets are not embedding properly because Elon Musk is a giant diaper baby.

Rumor: The Patriots might be trying to trade Mac Jones

Earlier this week, Mike Florio reported that Bill Belichick had shopped starting quarterback Mac Jones to a few different teams. This was after Florio’s colleague Chris Simms relayed how Jones had reached out to Alabama coaches last season about how to run the Patriots’ dysfunctional offense. That apparently didn’t sit well with Belichick.

Why it could be true: While Jones had a successful rookie season, he struggled throughout his second year, with an injury and without a real offensive coordinator. His passer rating dropped from 92.5 to 84.8 and his QBR went from a respectable 50.9 down to 36.2, fourth-worst in the league. 

There’s no guarantee Jones will bounce back, even with Bill O’Brien, and not a defensive coach like Matt Patricia, calling his plays. After all, rookie Bailey Zappe performed better, on average, than Jones when Zappe played in relief of the injured starter. If the Patriots felt that Zappe could give them the same level of production at quarterback, then they might be willing to part with Jones, who has reportedly rubbed Belichick the wrong way more than once.

https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/1598532632035328007

Speaking of Belichick, he’s got a legacy to uphold. He has more Super Bowl titles than any coach in NFL history and trails only Don Shula in career wins (playoffs included). Yet he hasn’t won a Super Bowl, or even an AFC East championship, without Tom Brady as his quarterback — while Brady added another ring without Belichick. 

If Belichick has doubts that Jones has what it takes to lead New England back to the football promised land, then it might make sense why he’d want to cut bait, especially when the other teams in the division are built to win now (assuming the Jets finalize their trade for Aaron Rodgers). 

In that case, Zappe probably wouldn’t be the Pats’ solution, either. So which quarterback would be? Not Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, or any of the other free agents available. Franchise-tagged Lamar Jackson, whom Belichick has repeatedly praised in the past, would be an intriguing fit, and according to part-time NFL insider (I guess!) Meek Mill, Jackson wants to play for Belichick. Hmm…

Why it could be false: Well, first of all, landing Jackson is a long shot, not only because of how much money it’d cost — Gronk agrees that’s not Belichick’s approach — but also because the Ravens could match the Patriots’ offer and leave New England back where it started. 

It’s also been just two years since Belichick drafted Jones, who made the Pro Bowl that season and finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. He’s still on a rookie contract, leaving the Patriots with more money to spend elsewhere on the roster. 

There are other reports that dispute that Belichick ever tried to deal Jones, who might not have a ton of trade value at the moment anyway:

https://twitter.com/ByMarkDaniels/status/1643317612548349954?t=OfNgSh9SHjCmPihGz9d7GA&s=19

Chance it happens (0-10): 3

I don’t think we can completely dismiss the latest drama in the Patriots’ locker room, but I don’t see any easy fixes either. The most likely scenario is what Jason McCourty said: Jones will get another chance, this time with an actual offensive coordinator, to prove he can be New England’s franchise quarterback. 

Rumor: The Titans could trade up to the No. 3 pick

The Cardinals are in a prime spot in the draft order with the No. 3 pick. They can trade down with a quarterback-needy team and accrue a few more picks for their rebuild. On his podcast, NFL Network draft guru Daniel Jeremiah singled out two franchises that just might try to make that deal with Arizona: the Raiders (obvious choice) and the Titans (less obvious). 

Why it could be true: This year, no team should trade up to No. 3 unless it plans to draft a quarterback. The Titans have not confirmed they want to select another passer, though new general manager Ran Carthon has maintained that current starter Ryan Tannehill will be on the roster this year despite the salary cap relief that would come with cutting (or trading) him.

That doesn’t rule out Carthon’s interest in any other quarterbacks, particularly considering Tannehill’s age (he’ll be 35 in July), injury history (he missed five games due to an ankle sprain in 2022), and contract (he’ll be a free agent next year). Carthon and/or coach Mike Vrabel attended the pro days for each of the top four QB prospects and also hosted Hendon Hooker on a pre-draft visit. 

The Titans currently have the No. 11 pick in the draft and would need to trade up to No. 3 to bypass the divisional rival Colts and land either C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, or Will Levis. It’d most likely be one of the latter two, since Stroud and Young have the best odds to go 1-2. 

If Tannehill is indeed staying in Tennessee this season, then Richardson or Levis could sit back and learn as a rookie before taking over the starting role — which is what both should probably do no matter where they’re drafted. 

This past season, the Titans would have won the AFC South if they had had a stable QB situation. But Tannehill was too banged up, and rookie Malik Willis was too raw, that they ended up losing the divisional title in Week 18, when they started the recently signed Josh Dobbs (who tried valiantly!). So if Carthon sees one of these prospects as the long-term answer at quarterback, then Tennessee could pull off a deal with new Cardinals GM (and former Titans player of personnel) Monti Ossenfort for the third overall selection.

Why it could be false: One report from last month said the Titans were big fans of Stroud, but it’d be a surprise if he were still available at No. 3. After getting a chance to watch the other quarterbacks up close, maybe Carthon would be willing to make a blockbuster move to grab a different guy, though it’s not something first-time GMs do very often (and with good reason).

It’s also not clear what the organization thinks of Willis; if Vrabel & Co. still have hope that he can develop, then giving up a haul for a rookie quarterback doesn’t seem worth the cost. After all, Tennessee could add some competition for Willis without trading up: by waiting for Hooker (assuming he lasts until the second round). 

Besides, the Titans have quite a few other holes to fill in the draft and could acquire a top receiver or offensive tackle if they stay at No. 11. 

Chance it happens (0-10): 4

No one can tell if the Titans are in a rebuild or not, and Carthon is a bit of an unknown heading into his first draft as a GM. That uncertainty leaves room for the Titans to go any number of directions in the first round. 

Still, if Carthon is going to part with as much draft capital as it would take to jump to No. 3, then he has to be very sure he’s getting the right quarterback. And I don’t think anyone that would be available at that point is a slam dunk. 

Rumor: The 49ers are talking to the Packers about Aaron Rodgers

Florio was in a gossipy mood this week when he also revealed that there had been scuttlebutt during the NFL Combine about the 49ers trading for Kirk Cousins. However, as he later explained, the Niners will probably wait until next year to revisit this scenario. At that point, Cousins will be a free agent and San Francisco will have a better sense of whether Trey Lance or Brock Purdy is a viable full-time starter.

That is, unless SF trades for Aaron Rodgers in the meantime. Rodgers has revealed that he wants to play for the Jets, but so far no deal has materialized. And if the Packers and Jets can’t agree to terms, the 49ers could be waiting in the wings:

https://twitter.com/TheCartonShow/status/1643245660152446977?s=20

Why it could be true: The Packers and Rodgers both seem ready to move on from one another. But the Jets and Packers remain at a standstill over the details of a trade. 

In the meantime, Rodgers is in his home state of California, where he was recently spotted buying healing crystals. We already knew that Rodgers has certain “woo-woo” beliefs, so what if these crystals, or a psychic, or some ‘shrooms inspire him to change his mind and decide he instead wants to play for his childhood team, the Niners? 

A healthy, capable quarterback is the main reason — maybe the only reason — San Francisco hasn’t won a Super Bowl in the past few years. With Rodgers, the 49ers would have an established quarterback who can win right away and doesn’t have a lengthy injury history. He hasn’t missed a start due to injury since 2017. 

Why it could be false: The 49ers have 11 draft picks this year but none in the first two rounds. As such, they’d once again have to sacrifice future draft picks for a quarterback, this time a 39-year-old one who wasn’t particularly good last season. 

They also have two quarterbacks on rookie contracts — Lance and Purdy — and Sam Darnold, who can start if they need him to, on a one-year deal. The Niners already proved they can win with Purdy simply managing games, and presumably want to find out if Purdy can replicate that performance again, as well as what a healthy Lance can do. 

Plus, the Jets and Rodgers are operating as if it’s only a matter of time until the trade is finalized. The Jets, after bringing on Rodgers’ former OC (Nathaniel Hackett) and a favorite WR (Allen Lazard), just signed Rodgers’ one-time backup, Tim Boyle. Rodgers himself has been seen working out with Lazard. No one appears worried that this deal will fall through. 

Chance it happens (0-10): 1

It’s still expected that the Jets and Packers will complete the trade in the coming weeks. But Green Bay is perhaps just trying to hurry things along by leaking rumors about other teams being interested in Rodgers. 

Then again, this is Rodgers, so maybe we shouldn’t count anything out completely.