Which team can be the next Buccaneers?
If anyone is going to flip the switch from non-winning record to Super Bowl champs, it'll be one of these six teams.
In hindsight, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an unsurprising championship team. They spent last offseason adding the NFL’s winningest Super Bowl quarterback to an already talented roster, along with a few experienced vets and several promising draft prospects. They boasted an adept and well-regarded coaching staff. And they got healthy and hot at just the right time.
But they were an unusual winner in a couple of other ways. The Bucs hadn’t made the playoffs since 2007. They were just the seventh wild card team to ever win a Super Bowl. They also had one of the best turnarounds in NFL history, becoming only the ninth squad to go from a non-winning record to Super Bowl champs in just one season.
The entire list:
Super Bowl XVI: 49ers (6-10 in 1980)
Super Bowl XVII: Washington (8-8 in 1981)
Super Bowl XXXIV: Rams (4-12 in 1998)
Super Bowl XXXV: Ravens (8-8 in 1999)
Super Bowl XXXVI: Patriots (5-11 in 2000)
Super Bowl XLII: Giants (6-10 in 2006)
Super Bowl XLIV: Saints (8-8 in 2008)
Super Bowl LII: Eagles (7-9 in 2016)
Super Bowl LV: Bucs (7-9 in 2019)
As you can see, though such a drastic improvement is rare overall, it’s happened a few times in consecutive years. That means it wouldn’t be unprecedented if another team followed in the Bucs’ footsteps in 2021 — and there’s no shortage of possible candidates.
So let’s narrow it down a bit. First, we’ll start with the teams that put up a non-winning record. In 2020, there were 19 that finished at .500 or below. But two of them — 7-9 Washington and 8-8 Bears — made the playoffs, so we can eliminate them from the conversation.
That leaves us with 17 teams that could potentially make a Bucs-like leap. However, even if most are better in 2021, the Super Bowl hopes for some of them are negligible. It’d be quite unexpected, or take an act of god in a few cases, if the Jets, Bengals, Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Eagles, Lions, Panthers, or Falcons win it all. Do I really want to waste our time trying to form an argument about how each one could accomplish that near-impossible task? I do not.
Now we’re down to six teams, a much more reasonable number. Though none will have Tom Brady at quarterback, each one at least has a somewhat realistic path to the Super Bowl. Let’s take a closer look.
Arizona Cardinals (2020 record: 8-8)
What’s working for them: Kyler Murray is one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL, and while he has yet to lead the Cardinals to the playoffs, they were thiiiiis close to getting there in 2020, if not for a late-season collapse. If Murray continues to develop as a passer and cut down on his mistakes (12 INTs and 9 fumbles last year), then the Cardinals can get back to the postseason for the first time since 2015.
And there’s little reason to think he won’t improve, so long as he’s healthy. The Cardinals’ priority is building the team around Murray, as we saw last year when they traded for DeAndre Hopkins, who had instant chemistry with his new quarterback. This offseason, Arizona brought in another veteran receiver (A.J. Green), a speedy rookie receiver (Rondale Moore), a workhorse running back (James Conner), and a solid center (Rodney Hudson). All should give the offense a boost, as well as Murray’s chances of taking that next step.
Though a competitive NFC West makes earning a playoff bid a little tougher, if they do, they’d be battle-tested when January arrives.
What’s working against them: Even with the addition of J.J. Watt, the defense is a bit of a question mark, especially now that Chandler Jones wants out. Last year’s sack leader, Haason Reddick, signed with the Panthers during free agency, and Watt’s last double-digit sack season was in 2018. Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins are both young, intriguing first-rounders but are still relatively unproven.
Kliff Kingsbury’s ability to adapt his offense and his coaching decisions in general are another concern. He’s entering a pivotal third season as the head coach and if he doesn’t get results this year, the front office could be ready to move on.
(The possibility of losing their No. 1 receiver to the Covid list would also worry me if I were the Cardinals.)
Dallas Cowboys (2020 record: 6-10)
What’s working for them: Dak Prescott is back, bag finally secured and ready to pick up where he left off before he fractured his ankle — that is, putting up the best stats of his career. Ezekiel Elliott has worked hard this offseason, highly motivated to bounce back from a disappointing 2020. The offensive line is healthy again, which will make life easier for both Dak and Zeke. This offense has all the tools and personnel, including a dynamic trio of wide receivers (Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup), to be one of the most fun and efficient offenses in the NFL.
The defense, well … it really doesn’t have anywhere to go but up. Luckily, that should happen and not just because they used eight draft picks on defensive players this year. The unit will likely enjoy playing for Dan Quinn, who replaces Mike Nolan at coordinator and will bring proper leadership to the role. A healthy DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory can give last year’s lackluster pass rush a lift. Rookies Micah Parsons and Kelvin Joseph can contribute immediately.
Although the Cowboys were a mess in Mike McCarthy’s first year, the benefit from that is an easier schedule this season, in what’s already a winnable division. Dallas has the talent to go far, if everything goes as planned.
What’s working against them: The Cowboys are optimistic, which is ominous because any time that’s been the case in the last 25 years, they’ve failed to live up to expectations. What if Prescott struggles to regain his form after missing games for the first time in his career, or is starting to become injury prone? What if Zeke still has fumble issues, or the OL can’t stay healthy?
The bigger question is on the other side of the ball: Did they make enough changes to their defense to make it *good*?
Los Angeles Chargers (2020 record: 7-9)
What’s working for them: Justin Herbert exceeded expectations in his first season in LA, and the Chargers smartly chose to upgrade the unit charged with protecting the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. They signed savvy former Packers center Corey Linsley and guards Matt Feiler and Oday Aboushi during free agency, then drafted highly regarded left tackle Rashawn Slater in the first round.
Herbert will still have the strong wide receiver tandem of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, though he’ll be without one of his favorite targets from last season: tight end Hunter Henry, who joined the Patriots. The Chargers recruited veteran help to replace Henry; Jared Cook has been quite the red zone weapon in his 30s, recording 22 of his 41 career touchdowns in just the last three seasons.
The Chargers are hoping those new faces can get them over the hump in close games — in typical Chargers fashion, seven of their nine losses came by eight points or fewer a year ago. That and better coaching. Brandon Staley has taken over the headset and the former Rams DC will have a few players with All-Pro pedigree to work with, like Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and Chris Harris. If they can stay healthy, that is.
It’s an uphill battle to beat out Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC West, but as the Bucs proved, you don’t need a division title to become Super Bowl champs. The Chargers just need to turn a few of those almost-wins into actual wins, make the playoffs, and try to hit their stride then.
What’s working against them: Only their franchise’s history of extraordinarily bad luck. Well, not only that. Staley might have been able to work defensive wonders with LA’s other team, but the unit is still worrisome, especially as it continues to adapt to Staley’s complicated scheme. The pass rush (minus Bosa) is no sure thing, and neither is the secondary. They need to be, not just because they’ll face Mahomes twice a year but also if they want to play, and keep playing, into January.
Minnesota Vikings (2020 record: 7-9)
What’s working for them: We’re in an odd-numbered year, and going by recent history, that means the Vikings are due to make the postseason. Once they get there, they’re not an easy out either, at least not if you’re the Saints.
Despite not always looking the part, the offense was one of the league’s most productive last season (the Vikings finished eighth in offensive DVOA). That’s the benefit of having Dalvin Cook, who’s a top-five running back in the NFL right now, and drafting Justin Jefferson to take over for Stefon Diggs. As a rookie, Jefferson led the team with 88 catches and exactly 1,400 receiving yards, and also hauled in seven touchdowns.
Kirk Cousins was very Kick Cousins-y, in that he was efficient (105 passer rating) but also made too many mistakes (13 INTs, 9 fumbles). Cousins was sacked 39 times, often in pivotal situations, a problem that can be both attributed to Cousins himself and his protection, or lack thereof. The Vikings opted to beef up their OL in the draft with first-round tackle Christian Darrisaw and guard Wyatt Davis, a potential steal in the third round.
Luckily, the Vikings can still win with Cousins being Cousins — if their defense can rebound from last year’s mediocrity. The defense lost a number of key players before (such as Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Mackensie Alexander) and during the season (Danielle Hunter, Mike Hughes, Eric Kendricks). After fielding a unit that ranked in the top seven of defensive DVOA from 2016-2019, it plummeted to 18th in 2020.
Now that the defense is healthier again, and added contributors like Sheldon Richardson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and Alexander again, it should bounce back.
What’s working against them: The pressure is on the Vikings, particularly Cousins and head coach Mike Zimmer. And well, when has Cousins ever responded well to pressure? (Except, of course, in that overtime playoff win over the Saints two years ago.)
He could still be, quite literally, facing a ton of pressure on the field because even with the reinforcements, how good his OL will be is still up in the air.
The Vikings have the personnel to win, but they also play one of the toughest schedules this season. And their training camp isn’t exactly off to a rousing start. Zimmer is frustrated with the members of his team — including Cousins and former OL coach Rick Dennison — who haven’t been vaccinated (and anyone else):
New England Patriots (2020 record: 7-9)
What’s working for them: You can blame the Patriots’ 2020 disappointment on a number of factors: losing Tom Brady and not bringing in Cam Newton until midsummer; Covid, both opt-outs and players, including Newton, missing time due to positive tests; and a lack of offensive firepower.
All of those issues are, if not fixed, at least mended. Newton is no longer learning the offense on the fly, and even if his struggles continue, the Patriots have first-round quarterback Mac Jones waiting in the wings.
Dont’a Hightower is back after sitting out last season and doesn’t seem to have missed a step. Uncharacteristically, the Patriots spent big in free agency to give Newton and/or Jones a few more weapons, including wide receiver Nelson Agholor and tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. They also brought back two old friends, Kyle Van Noy and Trent Brown, to bolster the defense and OL, respectively.
The defense is primed to return to its usual dominant self, and not just because Hightower’s and Van Noy’s homecoming. They also signed free agents Matt Judon and Jalen Mills, and then drafted defensive linemen Christian Barmore and Ronnie Perkins, both of whom can make an impact right away.
Oh yeah, and Bill Belichick is still the coach. He’s pretty good! He’s also likely to be extra motivated, though he would never admit it, to prove he can win without Brady after Brady just proved he can win without Belichick.
The Patriots aren’t the kings of the AFC East anymore thanks to the Bills’ resurgence, but they don’t have to be either. Once they can get to the playoffs — which shouldn’t be a tall task with their easy schedule — they’ll have the leadership to know what to do from there.
What’s working against them: Barring unforeseen circumstances, both the offense and defense will be better in 2021. Will they be able to perform up to the standards of other recent Patriots teams? And although they were aggressive in free agency, will their new players be worth the price they paid? Those are the million dollar questions.
The quarterback position remains a concern as well. It’s unclear if Newton can ever regain his top-tier form, and if he’s truly past his prime, Jones isn’t a slam dunk NFL starter, not without the huge talent advantage he had surrounding him at Alabama.
San Francisco 49ers (2020 record: 6-10)
What’s working for them: A roster we know can make the Super Bowl because, well, they did. This isn’t the exact group who were eight minutes away from winning Super 54, but it’s more or less the same team.
They could’ve been right back in contention if not for the rash of injuries last year. The 49ers’ injuries accounted for 166.6 adjusted games lost, per Football Outsiders, which is more than any other team, except the 2016 Bears, since 2001. Major players like Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel all missed significant time, and all are set to return to the field in 2021.
Joining them will be crucial pieces who were not part of the roster in 2019. That includes trusty left tackle Trent Williams, promising second-year defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, rising star Brandon Aiyuk at receiver, hard-running rookie Trey Sermon, and perhaps more importantly to their future, first-round quarterback Trey Lance.
Garoppolo is currently the starter and appears to be liberated rather than upset by the competition. Lance has been nothing but complimentary of Garoppolo while also performing well enough during training camp to leave us wondering if the rookie will be QB1 sooner than we thought.
As things stand now, the 49ers have plenty of reasons to feel hopeful about this season and beyond.
What’s working against them: Even though they’re mostly healthy right now, there’s no guarantee they’ll stay that way. While it’s extremely unlikely they’ll be decimated by as many high-profile injuries as they experienced last season, the 49ers have had a disconcerting number in recent history. It’s difficult to compete, particularly in the NFC’s most loaded division, when your best players are hurt all the time.
As stout as the defense has been the last two seasons — No. 6 in defensive DVOA in 2020, No. 2 in 2019 — topnotch DC Robert Saleh is now the head coach of the Jets (godspeed). There shouldn’t be that much change, considering DeMeco Ryans has been on the coaching staff since 2017, but Ryans is a first-time coordinator and has big shoes to fill.
The quarterback situation is far from settled, too. If Garoppolo can’t stay healthy or is ineffective, then Lance will get thrown into the fire. It’s great that the 21-year-old impressed in training camp, but a real NFL game is a much different story. At this point, it’s too soon to know if he’s ready to lead a championship-caliber team just yet.
Great article. Sums everything up and makes you want the NFL season to start.