Which surprising stats will survive 2020?
There are some head-scratching names atop the leader boards after two weeks. Plus, our picks for when all the Florida men meet on Thursday night.
We’re only two weeks into the NFL season, but we know a few things. The Patriots, as it turns out, are not ready for a eulogy. Gardner Minshew has no interest in being replaced by Trevor Lawrence. The 49ers have angered the football gods, and their penance can only be paid in blood and ligaments.
Some of these trends will carry on through January (or whenever the season ends, pandemic pending). Some of them will fade into the ether before Halloween. The hard part is figuring out what’s for real and what’s not.
Josh Allen *probably* won’t set a single-season passer rating record at 122.9. The Texans will *probably* win a game this fall. And the Lions may, in fact, blow a double-digit lead in every one of their losses in 2020.
Let’s talk about individual statistics today. Through two games, the NFL’s leaderboards are topped by some names we expected and others we did not. Who has the juice to go (almost) wire-to-wire and claim a league crown? Let’s break down six surprising leaders early in the season and gauge their chances of staying atop the stat charts through Week 17.
Joe Burrow will lead the league in passing attempts
Verdict: True.
In two professional games, Burrow has thrown 97 passes. It’s unlikely he’ll scrape a 50 pass-per-Sunday average in his rookie campaign, but there’s plenty of reason to believe Cincinnati will continue to throw the hell out of the ball in 2020.
The first reason is obvious: the Bengals still aren’t very good. The franchise put in solid work at this year’s draft to create an influx of young talent, but a long history of poor free agency decisions has left Cincinnati with holes at many positions. That means Burrow is going to be playing from behind throughout the season, and that means more passes rather than clock-grinding runs. This is how Blake Bortles wound up throwing 1,200+ times from 2015-16 despite being objectively bad at it.
The other factor working in his favor is an absolutely stacked group of targets. Although A.J. Green’s dropoff is concerning (eight catches on 22 targets) and C.J. Uzomah’s season-ending Achilles tear is a problem, the Bengals have surrounded their first-year QB with one of the league’s deepest receiving corps. Tyler Boyd, John Ross, and Alex Erickson all have 100-yard receiving games in their NFL careers. Rookie Tee Higgins hauled in 25 touchdown passes his final two seasons at Clemson. Burrow has even guided former Rams special teamer Mike Thomas to career bests in receptions and touchdowns in just two games.
While Matt Ryan and the ever-flailing Falcons could come after Burrow atop the leaderboard, there’s a good chance the guy who threw the ball 35+ times per game en route to a CFP championship will continue to sling the ball in the NFL. Burrow has the chops, the personnel, and the circumstance to throw more passes than anyone this year. If he does, he’ll be the first rookie to lead the league in attempts since Peyton Manning in 1998.
Joe Burrow will finish last among starting QBs in yards per pass
Verdict: False.
Burrow’s high volume of throws hasn’t led to a similarly prolific chunk of yardage. In two games he’s averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt, which would be the lowest YPA number from a qualified quarterback since Jimmy Clausen in 2010.
That number should climb as he adjusts to NFL defenses — remember, he didn’t get a preseason to hone his game — and gets in tune with the aforementioned stacked WR corps. If Burrow only shows moderate improvement with his downfield decisions, there’s a good chance he’ll be usurped at the bottom of the YPA ranks by a quarterback nearly two decades older than him. Through two games, Drew Brees’ average pass has traveled a meager 4.1 yards past the line of scrimmage — worse than anyone in the league but 49ers backup Nick Mullens.
Even though some of that punchless passing game can be attributed to Michael Thomas’s high ankle sprain, it’s also the continuation of a worrying trend for New Orleans. Brees has become more and more of a checkdown passer as he plays into his 40s. His average throw depth has fallen in five of the last six seasons, dropping from 7.8 in 2015 to the current 4.1. Burrow is averaging 7.7 yards per pass, which suggests his number will rise while Brees’s could fall.
Aaron Jones will lead the league in yards from scrimmage
Verdict: True.
This season’s top runner, so far, has been this beautiful beefy man:
Packers tailback Aaron Jones has 34 more rushing yards than second-place Derrick Henry despite taking 22 fewer carries. Add in eight catches for 78 yards, and you’ve got the player who currently leads the league in total yards gained by a wide margin.
Jones has always been capable of producing lead back numbers, but his place in a platoon for a pass-first offense kept him from exploding. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry his first two seasons, then broke out in 2019 as a bonafide three-down back by making 49 catches. That receiving skill has not been lost in 2020:
Jones has only been on the field for 51 percent of his team’s snaps so far, yet he’s gotten the ball or been targeted on 48 of those 77 plays. When he’s on the field, there’s been a 62.3 percent chance he’s Aaron Rodgers’ huckleberry. That’s probably not sustainable, but neither is that 51 percent snap rate.
That number could go up significantly in the coming weeks thanks to Davante Adams’ nagging hamstring injury. While 2020 has been a revival year for Aaron Rodgers, Adams has taken up 40 percent of his wideout/tight end targets. If he misses extended time or is limited on the field, it could mark a shift to more runs in Green Bay — and bigger numbers for Jones.
Also, yards-from-scrimmage beasts Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey suffered injuries in Week 2. That thins out Jones’ competition significantly.
Derrick Henry will lead the league in rushing attempts
Verdict: False.
Henry has 56 carries already, but Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is right behind him with 52 attempts. Although it’s fair to say both players are the centerpiece of their respective offenses, the difference for the Titans is they aren’t afraid to use their passing game. The Raiders and Derek Carr, despite a decent start, just don’t boast the same kind of air attack. Carr doesn’t have the receivers outside of tight end Darren Waller. Even after an upset win over the Saints, he has not pushed the ball downfield much. Over the course of the season, that’s going to mean more work for Jacobs and the NFL lead in carries.
The bigger concern is volume for both players. Henry is now on pace for an incredible 448 carries. Jacobs is looking at 416 at his current rate.
Only five players since the merger have had more than 400 carries in a season — the last to do it was Larry Johnson with the Chiefs in 2006. Those numbers are unheard of in the NFL today. Over the last 10 years, only two players have had more than 350 carries in a season: Arian Foster in 2012 with 351 and DeMarco Murray in 2014 with 392. Their careers were never the same after that.
That kind of workload just isn’t tenable, and neither team can afford to be without its featured back for the near future (remember, the Titans signed Henry to a four-year, $50 million deal before the season).
Jacobs will lead the league in rushing attempts, but that number won’t/shouldn’t come close to 400 carries.
Kyler Murray will lead the NFL in yards per rushing attempt
Verdict: True.
Arizona’s offense got a huge upgrade with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, but it’s nothing without Kyler Murray’s legs. That was key to minimizing the damage from Washington’s defensive line last week. And it’ll be the main ingredient for keeping defenses on their heels all season.
This was Lamar Jackson’s beat last year, with the reigning MVP going on to lead the NFL with a blustery 6.9 yards per rushing attempt on his way to a record-breaking 1,206 rushing yards. This year he’s passing the torch for most exciting quarterback to Murray.
Chase Young or T.J. Watt will lead the league in sacks
Verdict: False for Young, true for Watt.
Young averaged 1.08 sacks per game in his final two seasons at Ohio State, so it’s not surprising to see the No. 2 overall pick tied with Watt for the league lead with 2.5 each. Not only is the rookie a physical marvel, but he’s also part of a Washington defensive front made up solely of former first-round picks. That lightened load has helped clear his path to the quarterback in the Football Team’s 1-1 start.
As good as Young can be, the early numbers don’t suggest he’s capable of sustaining this pace. His 8.3 percent pressure rate fails to rank among the top 25 defensive linemen in the league. In fact, it isn’t even tops on his own team; that would be Matt Ioannidis at 22.7 percent. Watt, for comparison, has generated pressure on 15.2 percent of his rushes.
Like Young, Watt benefits from a team effort around him. Fellow edge rusher Bud Dupree has been instrumental in sewing chaos with his 22.9 percent pressure rate. Together, they’ve combined for 10 QB hits, which indicates the Steelers’ 11 percent sack rate won’t be an outlier as the season wears on. Pittsburgh has been more willing to diversify its blitz packages in 2020 as well, leading to sacks from secondary members Mike Hilton and Terrell Edmunds.
While Washington can provide a potent push up front, the Steelers are a more complete defense. Watt may have some of his potential sacks stolen or split thanks to a strong team effort, but that group should provide greater opportunity for the Pittsburgh pass rusher to claim his first sack crown.
Thursday Night Football picks
Last week, Thursday Night Football gave us the Battle of Ohio. This week, it’s the Battle of Florida. Yeah yeah, we get it. It’s an election year. WE KNOW.
(Here’s a quick reminder to make a plan for when and how you’re going to vote. I’m opting to vote in person on the very first day of early voting, probably about mid-afternoon to avoid the lunch crowd.)
The Dolphins will travel up to Jacksonville looking for their first win of the season. The Jaguars have been surprisingly competitive and, even more surprisingly, entertaining so far this season, and if they can hold off Miami this week, they’ll be over .500 for the first time since early 2018.
Forget about all that, though. There’s only one matchup that matters on Thursday night, and that’s the beard vs. ‘stache feud between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew:
Joining us as this week’s guest picker is someone who has more impressive facial hair than both quarterbacks put together. Please welcome another of our former colleagues, James Brady. James was at SB Nation longer than any of us, and in his years there, he wrote about pretty much everything, including the NFL, tennis, boxing, Formula 1, the Iditarod (when forced), and the handsomeness of Jimmy Garoppolo.
When he found the time, James would also dabble in writing about another subject near and dear to his heart: video games. I’ve never met anyone who knows more about video games, especially the obscure ones, than James. Now, James is sharing his expertise on a regular basis with his newsletter Start Screen Pass.
If you’d like the full rundown on everything from the new Madden to Super Blood Hockey, then please sign up. James is also making NFL picks throughout the season in his newsletter, if you’re into that sort of thing. I mean, you’re reading this right now so you probably are.
Speaking of, let’s get to our Thursday Night Football picks. The Jaguars are the favorites, according to both Vegas and our panel.
I’m the lone dissenter. That’s not because I necessarily believe the Dolphins will win, but more because I was the last one to make a pick for this game and if there’s one lesson I’ve learned as an “expert,” it’s that we should avoid a consensus during primetime games. Otherwise if we’re wrong, the winning team’s fans will find us and they will dunk on us for DAYS.
It’s super annoying, so I’ll fall on that sword by taking the underdog. Long live the Beard. — SH