Where every 2-0 or 0-2 NFL team stands, plus Week 3 picks
Plus, 1,200 words on Oktoberfest and why you should celebrate it.
This season, an NFL-record 11 teams have started 2-0. That includes both the expected (Ravens, Chiefs) and unexpected (Cardinals, Raiders). The same could be said for the 11 teams that started 0-2. We figured the Jets and Giants would be here, but we’re surprised to see the Vikings and Eagles still searching for their first win.
The Dolphins were in the same winless boat until Thursday Night Football. Their convincing 31-13 victory over the Jaguars brought Miami to 1-2. Now, there are 21 teams either unbeaten or without a win. That’s a lot! And on the surface, it might seem like we already know what the playoff picture will look like come January.
(Fitz’s current team? Not 0-2. However, three of his former teams are.)
There’s still a lot of season left to play, though. The 2-0 teams aren’t guaranteed to make the playoffs. Since 1990, when the NFL switched to a 12-team playoff format, just 61.9 percent of teams that began 2-0 eventually went on to the postseason. It isn’t hopeless for the 0-2 clubs either. In that same span, 12.1 percent of 0-2 teams got into the playoffs. Yes, that’s only 30 teams in 30 seasons, but remember, the NFL is expanding the postseason field to 14 teams this year.
We still have a fairly good idea about which teams are for real, which aren’t, and which ones can still be contenders. We decided to sort them for both our benefit and yours — it’s an efficient way to discuss two-thirds of the NFL — and we ended up with six different tiers, three for the 2-0 teams and three for the 0-2 gang.
Tier I: 2-0 teams that are, without a doubt, Super Bowl contenders
Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks
You know they’re for real, we know they’re for real. Let’s just list ‘em and move on.
Tier II: 2-0 teams that are, at the very least, Super Bowl hopefuls
Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
The Bills can go from playoff team to legit contender if Josh Allen can be a stable quarterback. Through two games he’s got a 122.8 passer rating — more than 40 points higher than his career average — but that performance came against the Dolphins and Jets, which isn’t super inspiring. Green Bay looks great but has a similarly thin resume, questions about its wideout and tight end depth, and the lingering stigma of being the NFC’s least threatening 13-win team last fall.
The Steelers look rejuvenated at every position after last year’s lost season, even at quarterback. Their second-ranked defense (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric) has the chops to make up for any lapses Big Ben or a suspect running game churns up. However, like the first two teams on this list, they’ve only played winless teams. Tennessee has so far proven Ryan Tannehill’s breakthrough 2019 was no outlier, but his relative absence in last year’s postseason (123 passing yards per game) will loom large over the Titans’ Super Bowl hopes. And how does this offense look if they lose Derrick Henry for any period of time?
Tier III: 2-0 teams that we have some questions about
Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ revival depends on Jared Goff playing like his pre-Super Bowl self. That’s what LA has gotten through two wins over disheveled piles formerly known as NFC East teams (Cowboys, Eagles). Unfortunately, the Rams play in a much tougher division and the West could grind them — and Goff’s return to above-averageness — like gears in a clock.
The Bears have gotten three good quarters from Mitchell Trubisky. They’ve played eight, so that’s not ideal. The Raiders look feisty, but their passing defense has so far been tested by two of 2019’s biggest checkdown QBs: Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees. Their pass rush has one sack in two games. Let’s take them seriously after they’ve stopped Patrick Mahomes.
The Cardinals will go as far as Kyler Murray takes them. His adept running has prevented a sophomore season slump, but his passing still needs work. Even with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, Murray has seen his touchdown rate drop and interception rate rise despite throwing, on average, shorter passes to better receivers in 2020.
Tier IV: 0-2 teams that we shouldn’t write off just yet
Houston Texans
Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota Vikings
Houston has been bombarded by a brutal start to its schedule (Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers) but that softens up next week with the Vikings and Jaguars on tap and gets less consistently brutal in the second half of the year. That should give Bill O’Brien just enough time to build some hope, rally to his 9-7 destiny, and then vomit all over himself in the postseason, as is tradition.
The implosion of Kirk Cousins has been the headline to Minnesota’s awful start — he’s got a 2:4 TD:INT ratio and has thrown for only 186 yards per game — but the defense deserves special mention as well. It turns out losing more than half your starters in free agency is a *bad* thing.
The Eagles’ pact with Satan granted them a Super Bowl win at the expense of Carson Wentz’s potential and 50 more years without an NFL title. This is the only explanation for how he’s gone from MVP candidate to “Badlands Brock Osweiler” so rapidly. He has the same TD:INT ratio as Cousins, but not the ignominy of blowing a 17-0 lead to Washington. Injuries to the offensive line and wide receivers haven’t helped. But someone’s gotta win the NFC East.
Tier V: 0-2 teams that will get better, but don’t expect miracles
Atlanta Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals
Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions
The Falcons and Lions are each playing for their coaches’ jobs, and both Dan Quinn and Matt Patricia seem destined for midseason firings unless they can turn things around. Both teams are led by veteran quarterbacks and are otherwise too talented to linger at the bottom of their divisions. Even so, the stunning come-from-ahead losses Atlanta and Detroit have already engineered suggest they may not be done drilling toward rock bottom just yet.
The Bengals remain the Bengals, but Joe Burrow looks capable of eventually being the first Cincinnati QB to win a playoff game since … 1990, holy shit.
First-year coach Matt Rhule has some positives working in his favor, including coaxing more accurate passes from Teddy Bridgewater despite throwing more (and deeper) than he ever did as a Saint. But the offseason saw an exodus of talent in Charlotte, and Christian McCaffrey is out for at least four to six weeks. This remains a rebuilding year for the Panthers.
Tier VI: 0-2 teams that should be scouting the 2021 draft class already
Denver Broncos
New York Giants
New York Jets
The Broncos weren’t supposed to compete in 2020 as they assessed just what they had in second-year quarterback Drew Lock. Instead, Lock is out for at least a handful of games and the offense is in the hands of Jeff Driskel, who is 1-9 in games where he’s thrown at least 19 passes. Additionally, the guys who were arguably the top players on each side of the ball — Courtland Sutton and Von Miller — are done for the season due to injury. Things are bad!
The Giants weren’t very good before losing Saquon Barkley, so the primary focus of their season now should be ensuring Daniel Jones doesn’t take a step backward (or get sacked 56 times, which he is currently on pace to do).
The Jets under Adam Gase are total dog shit.
Dolphins vs. Jaguars, in five words or fewer
Beard > Mustache
Week 3 picks
Last week’s games were pretty easy to pick, thanks in part to how few upsets there were. If the Chiefs, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Titans hadn’t come through with close wins, then we’d be singing a different tune. As things stand, though, we aced Week 2 — and that includes this week’s guest picker, James Brady.
James was the utility man at SB Nation for many years and spent the 2019 season as a member of the NFL team. These days he has his own newsletter called Start Screen Pass, where he writes mostly about video games but he’s also making weekly NFL picks throughout the season. You should sign up (it’s free!) and follow James on Twitter (also free!).
Admittedly, the games on deck for Week 3 are tougher calls than last week, so we probably won’t be quite as accurate this time. Probably.
The “someone’s gonna hate how this game ends” pick: Bears vs. Falcons
A moderately stoppable force meets a very moveable object. The Bears had engineered 2020’s biggest comeback in Week 1, only to be usurped in Week 2 when the Falcons stared down their 20-0 second quarter lead against the Cowboys and said “not today.” Mitchell Trubisky, having faced lackluster Lions and Giants defenses to start his season, will get his opportunity to shine against a secondary that allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 450 yards (but only one touchdown. Silver lining, Atlanta!).
Trubisky works best when he can buy time in the pocket with his legs.
Working in the Falcons’ favor is the fact Prescott ran for just 18 yards on five carries last Sunday. Working against them is the fact 60 percent of those runs were cut off by the end zone as he scored three times. This seems like a setup to get the Bears to 3-0 while simultaneously exciting no one in Illinois. At the very least, Matt Ryan battling the Chicago secondary should be fun. — CD
The “regress to the mean” pick: Texans vs. Steelers
The Texans are a good, not great team that hasn’t looked very competitive for the early part of the season. They’ve also had the misfortune of going up against the AFC’s two elite teams. This week, things get a little easier, but not much, when they visit the Steelers. With a killer defense and a competent quarterback again, the Steelers are off to a 2-0 start.
But I think it’s fair to say the Texans are better than their record indicates and the Steelers are a little worse. Deshaun Watson is capable of taking over any game and will offer the Pittsburgh defense much more of a challenge than either opposing quarterbacks they’ve played so far (Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel). The Steelers have yet to dominate a game, despite the easy slate — last week, they barely held off Denver, which didn’t have Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, or Von Miller.
Houston’s defense has struggled overall, especially against the run, but the Steelers haven’t been able to get much going on the ground. The Texans should also be able to get to Ben Roethlisberger better than they could against Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. Look for J.J. Watt to add to his sack total this week. He’ll be playing with extra motivation facing off against his two brothers and could overtake T.J. as the NFL’s sack leader. Such a big brother move. — SH
The “everyone’s injured” pick: Giants vs. 49ers
The 49ers are so beat up it's crazy, but the Giants don't have Saquon Barkley. If Jimmy G. can't play, then Nick Mullens should be capable of beating them. If he isn't, the 49ers are in even bigger trouble than they know. — JB
The “AFC Championship Game preview” pick: Ravens vs. Chiefs
Monday Night Football will host the most anticipated game of the regular season. It also might just be a sneak peek at the AFC Championship Game in four months.
This will be the third time in their young careers that Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have faced off. The Chiefs won the first two contests, but so far this season, the Ravens have looked just a bit better and like the more complete team. The Chiefs were lucky to escape the Chargers last week, and really only did so because the Chargers’ inherent Chargerness took over. The Kansas City defense in particular was plagued by poor tackling, and now it gets to try to tackle Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown … need I go on?
Right now, the Ravens are the NFL’s most efficient team and don’t have an obvious weakness. I think they’ll hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season. Of course, it could be a different story if these two meet again in January. — SH
What you should be drinking to celebrate your socially-distanced Oktoberfest
The final two weeks of September are, in adulthood, my favorite time of the year. The weather has cooled off but remains perfect for tailgating. Football floods the weekends and occasional weeknights. The impetus to enjoy the world before it becomes a hellscape lives in harmony with 65 degree afternoons and nights perfect for sleeping.
And, most importantly, the world comes together to celebrate the marriage of Kronprinz Ludwig to Princess Therese of Saxe-Hildburghausen some 200 years ago.
This weekend — actually, Thursday through Sunday — was supposed to be my local Oktoberfest, celebrated some 30 minutes from Madison in the stunning town of New Glarus. New Glarus, a city known for its brewery (unlike the rest of the cities in Wisconsin, which are known for... different breweries), shuts down its main street to erect a tent over the whole damn thing. For $5, you can get a half liter of New Glarus' Staghorn (a malty Oktoberfest marzen) or Moon Man (IPA) or Two Women (lager) or the company's flagship Spotted Cow (farmhouse ale). For $10, they'll fill up a whole damn German Maß, assuming you brought your own.
In the background, strangers gather at long tables striped by wooden plank seating almost certainly borrowed from the dugout of the local Little League field. On Saturday, TVs over the taps showcase the latest class of corn-fed farm boys the Badgers will develop into NFL tackles. The day's entertainment starts with traditional German polka that sounds like a carousel whose operator has slumped over the controls, cranking the speed to dervish levels. The nights are headlined by local country music bands smart enough to know the way into a drunk crowd's heart is through cover songs but talented enough to know "Wagon Wheel" should not be one of them.
Of course, that won't happen this year. New Glarus isn't having an Oktoberfest. Neither is La Crosse. Hell, the real deal in Munich won't be taking place either, marking the first time since the 1940s the city won't have its proper beerfest. (Aside: remember when we all came together to agree that Nazis were bad? How did that become an argument again?)
This does not mean there will be no Oktoberfest. Like the dream of a year-round McRib, it lives on inside each of us. I'd like to guide you through your own tuba-soundtracked bacchanalia. These are my beer recommendations for you, friends of the Post Route.
5. Leinenkugel's Oktoberfest, because it's currently free
Normally Leinie's wouldn't make the cut, but the company is currently running a deal. You listen to a minute of polka music, they give you the code to redeem a rebate for a full six-pack of their Oktoberfest. Like most Leinenkugel offerings, it's slightly better than what you'd get from most U.S. macro breweries and probably worse than what your local craft place has cooked up for the season. That's still a decent marzen and it's, you know, free.
4. Lowenbrau
I spent a lot of time at my best friend Chad's house growing up. It's important to note his father was a world-class drinker. A former college rugby player and traveling salesman, Neil drove a diesel Mercedes-Benz that ran so loud he had to shut it off in drive-thrus so the good folks at Wendy's could hear his order. He knew everyone in the neighborhood and grilled for each of them, many times in their own backyards. Whenever we had sleepovers, he'd be waiting for us in the kitchen every morning, aviators on, cooking eggs, and humming the theme song to Shaft. He was a mountain of a human being in a town where no one owned skis.
Every day, on the bottom rack of a refrigerator whose light bulb had burned out sometime in the Reagan administration and was never replaced, were 24 perfectly chilled Lowenbraus, each one with its label facing outward. It's the coolest fucking beer in the world.
It tastes... fine, The Oktoberfest is a whole lot better.
3. Great Lakes Oktoberfest
American breweries make genuinely great marzens, and since my favorite — the aforementioned Staghorn — is only legally sold in the state of Wisconsin, let's go with my No. 2. Pretty much everything Great Lakes makes is extremely good. The Oktoberfest is no exception. If you're in a store and debating between dropping $4 on a four-pack of Old Style Oktoberfest or upgrading to the $9 six-pack of Great Lakes, treat yourself. It's only Oktoberfest once, you know (for 17 days, but still).
2. Ayinger Oktoberfest
Only the six Munich-area breweries — Lowenbrau, Spaten, Augustiner, Paulaner, Hofbrau, and Hacker-Pschorr — have the honor of seeing their beers hoisted, 12 liters at a time, by strong-armed waitresses on the Oktoberfest grounds. That leaves several German beermakers on the sideline, including Warsteiner (not bad), Schneider (better), Weihenstephaner (often very good) and Andechs (extremely good). Ayinger may be the most notable omission.
Their Oktoberfest pours smooth and malty and smells like a Hinterland meadow tinged with dew. Near the forest, a maiden beckons to you. She is wearing the same dirnl your mother once wore on Hapstaucht evenings while tucking you into bed. Her hair, golden as a field of wheat, is tied in pretzel braids except for a short awning hovering over her gentle forehead. She is holding gingerbread. She smiles, and you know you are home.
That's Ayinger.
1. Augustiner Dunkel
The toughest of the Munich breweries to find in America, but one of the most rewarding. Augustiner tastes like a parade of malt has come down your local main street, showing off a fleet of draft horses 20 strong but giving plenty of time for the local Shriners' temple to drive through in go-carts, tossing candy to children and wearing tiny hats. Later, the mummers come, zydeco instruments adorned with flamboyant trinkets, to signify the end of another prosperous harvest; another year without drought. All the sacrifices, you think as you transition from sip to swallow, have paid off. "We did it," you whisper to yourself. "Another year older. Another year better."
Augustiner also comes wrapped with gold or silver foil around the cap of each beer. "What is this, a present? For me? WHY THANK YOU, BEER!," you'll exclaim as you open them three at a time to pour into your stein. Augustiner will tell you you're welcome simply by being delicious. Every. Damn. Time.
Officially, the Maximator is their top beer, but since that's not available until Lent, the Dunkel will do.
There is no Oktoberfest — in the real world or our hearts — without music. The fairgrounds is a place where you go arm-over-shoulder with strangers who may not even speak the same language as you, all to scream some John Denver lyrics into the ether with the backing of a 20-piece brass band. There is no greater Oktoberfest song than Der Fliegerlied, however, as it encourages its audience (children for 348 days of the year, but drunks for two-plus weeks in autumn) to be strong like a tiger, tall like a giraffe and, most of all, be airplanes.
Happy Oktoberfest. I love you. — Christian D'Andrea