What happens if the Patriots actually trade *up* for a change?
Plus, a farewell to Alex Smith and Jordan Reed ... and the Raiders' latest spring screw up
Bill Belichick is one of the most prolific traders in NFL Draft history. Few executives, if any, have created more excess value from their cache of picks than the Patriots’ longtime head coach and de facto general manager.
But the trades Belichick usually makes involve a spot at the end of each round and a quick sojourn backward in the draft order thanks to Tom Brady and a roster stuck in “win now” mode. After last year’s 7-9 season, he’s staring at his highest home-brewed draft position since 2001. At 15th overall, he’ll have his earliest pick since drafting Jerod Mayo 10th in 2008.
Further complicating things is Brady’s absence. Cam Newton re-signed for another bite at the apple in New England, but his play in 2020 and the one-year contract he inked makes him an unlikely long-term solution. This year’s draft is stocked with strong passing prospects, but the five best could all be selected in the top 10 — well before a patient Belichick could find his guy. There’s a chance a top player slides, but the pickings at No. 15 have been slim lately; quarterbacks selected there or later in the first round the past decade include:
Jordan Love
Dwayne Haskins
Lamar Jackson
Paxton Lynch
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
and Brandon Weeden
That’s … grim. While there have been some bargains, the hit rate is much higher for passers respected enough to earn a top 12 selection. Unless Belichick lucks out or knows something the rest of the scouting world doesn’t about guys like Kellen Mond or Davis Mills (history has shown, he very well may), the Patriots will have to swim upstream to find a franchise cornerstone in 2021. New England will have to give up coveted draft capital and force its way into the top 10 to find Newton’s replacement.
What will that look like? How likely is it? How will it turn out? Let’s take a look at the past to see if we can untangle the Pats’ draft future.
The Patriots don’t trade up often, but it typically works out for them
Since Belichick took the reins in 2000, New England has traded its Day 1 pick for other picks — not including veteran-involved deals like their swap for Brandin Cooks in 2017 — 14 times. Here’s how those deals worked out in table form (click to embiggen):
Ten of these 14 trades saw the Pats give up position to acquire assets either later in the draft or in high-value slots the following year. They’ve only moved to improve their spot four times. Each deal worked in Belichick’s favor.
2002 saw Daniel Graham, an 11-year veteran and early pillar of New England’s two-TE offenses, arrive in exchange for Tulane QB Patrick Ramsey
2003 brought a modest, one-spot swap that delivered future All-Pro Ty Warren to the defensive line
2012 was the backdrop for two different trade-ups that recharged a championship defense with Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower.
Per Belichick’s proprietary draft trade calculator — helpfully parsed here by old friend and Pats Pulpit scribe Rich Hill — he gleaned more value than he traded away in three of those deals, amassing extra picks worth the equivalent of the 79th overall selection in the process. Potential trade partners might try to hold New England’s feet to the fire next Thursday, but odds are they’ll be trying to squeeze blood from a stone. Even the Bengals, who scored a rare value victory in 2012, only got what amounts (per the formula) to a bonus sixth-round pick in a deal that made Jones a Patriot.
Let’s say Belichick doesn’t want to pay the sky-high prices a marketplace wrecked by the 49ers overpay in a trade for the third pick set and decides to wait for a quarterback on Day 2. If New England opts to trade back, as it has in nearly half its drafts over the past two decades, it will likely work in the team’s favor … as long as they aren’t selecting a wideout. Those deals have returned starters like Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork, Devin McCourty, and Jamie Collins. They also introduced receivers Brandon Tate, Taylor Price, and Josh Boyce to Foxborough (combined receptions as Patriots: 36).
Belichick brought in more value than he shipped out in his first-round trade-backs in eight of 10 moves. The excess value he returned over the course of two decades is worth more than 1,700 value points — the equivalent of the fifth overall pick in any given draft.
Of course, just because the Patriots *used* to do something a certain way doesn’t mean they’ll continue the pattern in the post-Brady era. New England rarely splurged on free agents the previous two decades, yet outlaid more than $100 million in contracts this offseason. That included market-value pricing on tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, potential overpays on players like Jalen Mills and Devon Godchaux, and a definite overpay for Nelson by-god Agholor. Predicting what the oft-inscrutable Belichick might do after that spree is more difficult than ever.
That uncharacteristic spending also puts more value on the team’s draft picks. Young contributors on below-market rookie contracts will be vital in keeping the team stocked with talent, even with the salary cap likely to explode in 2022 and beyond. The Patriots will have to balance the need for cheap contributors versus the desire to get their next Brady accordingly.
Belichick trading up in the first round is rare. Him giving away draft leverage to move up is even rarer. But after missing the postseason for the first time since 2008, New England is nearing a crisis point. With a relatively weak crop of QBs set to hit the league in 2022, an overpay may be his best chance to secure the franchise quarterback capable of making the Patriots the PATRIOTS again.
But if history is any indication, he’ll probably just get the better of an overeager trade partner, move back a few slots, and draft a defensive star instead. —CD
Happy (and hopefully healthy) retirement, Alex Smith and Jordan Reed
The NFL has had what has felt like an abnormally large number of retirements this offseason. (Is it really more than usual? I don’t know, please don’t have me fact-check something that doesn’t really matter to the point I’m trying to make.) Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Matt Schaub have all called it a career, leaving Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger as the only active quarterbacks in the 39-and-over club. Jason Witten’s retirement put a bow on the 2003 draft class — assuming Terrell Suggs, who did not play in 2020, is done in the NFL. The Pouncey brothers coordinated like the identical twins they are and left the league at the same time. We all considered Julian Edelman’s legacy following his recent retirement, which also kept the hot-takes machine busy for at least 48 hours.
I don’t have a strong opinion about the timing of those players’ exits, whether they could have kept going or whether they should have called it quits earlier. I’m glad that they, more or less, could retire on their own terms and I wish all of them a happy post-NFL life, especially because of how hard former players have said the adjustment can be.
But there are two players who, when they retired this week, I felt an overwhelming sense of relief.
Football is a brutal game, an obvious statement Alex Smith and Jordan Reed know better than anyone. Smith suffered a leg injury so catastrophic that he had to undergo 17 surgeries and, oh yeah, almost died. Reed was diagnosed with seven concussions during his eight-year career and dealt with other injuries, never playing a full 16-game season.
Both Smith and Reed saw the field in 2020, which gave them each a comeback story to end their careers on.
Two years after he left the field on a stretcher, Smith took over as Washington’s starting quarterback. He was noticeably limited but still led the team to a 5-1 record as the starter and an eventual NFC East title, although he wasn’t able to play in the Wild Card Round due to a calf strain. Washington released Smith, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year, in March and despite interest from other teams, he decided to retire:
Anyone who saw him play last season probably agrees that he made the right decision. In his return to game action, he had to face Aaron Donald and the Rams and was sacked six times. That ended up being a season high, but it was still straight-up uncomfortable watching Smith out there at times, with the hits he’d take often due to his lack of mobility.
But he got a chance to prove to himself and everyone else that he could recover from a life-threatening injury and still play in the NFL. Even though he said he could’ve kept going, I’m glad that Smith ultimately didn’t feel he needed to prove anything else.
Reed’s situation is a little different — and scarier, considering the link between concussions and CTE. During a preseason game in 2019, Reed suffered his seventh documented concussion and missed the entire season. Many thought his career was over then, but he signed with the 49ers last offseason. Though he never regained his Pro Bowl form, he played in 10 games and finished second on the team in receiving touchdowns. He did not miss any games in 2020 due to concussions, but it was nerve-racking to watch him on the field, potentially risking another head injury.
Reed hadn’t planned on retiring, but he knew something wasn’t right and recently underwent a brain scan. After the results came in, he was advised by doctors to stop playing, and he agreed. He never had the career he could’ve had because of those injuries, but the hope is that Reed retired in time and won’t be dealing with the effects of concussions for the rest of his life. — SH
Stop Skinny Shaming DeVonta Smith
Reigning Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith checked in at just over 6 feet tall and weighing a mere 166 pounds. My first thought was “damn, 166 pounds … I wish could get down to 166 pounds.” But the draft industrial complex is fretting. That is awfully skinny for an NFL wide receiver. Typically, the lightest receivers will be in the 170-175 range. (Oh, to be 170 again …)
At Alabama he was listed at 175 pounds, and it certainly didn’t seem to impact his play. Still, I wouldn’t stress it too much. Whichever team drafts him will have a training staff and nutritionists who can help him add back five to 10 pounds. No player in the draft is a sure thing, but it seems unlikely that Smith’s career is doomed from the start because of four-nine pounds. —RVB
Mark Davis Is Not a Smart Man
Hard to believe a guy who looks like this could be so out-of-touch with the realities of racial injustice and the inherent flaws baked into our criminal justice system that he would take credit for making the worst tweet of the year.
Davis tried explaining the rationale behind the team’s unfortunate social media message—though it wasn’t especially convincing. And he even went so far as to claim that he made the tweet himself. He’s obviously lying about that part. He gave it away with this:
“I don’t want anyone in the organization taking heat. I take full responsibility for that.”
On the one hand, maybe it is somewhat admirable that he took the blame himself rather than throw the dunderheaded underpaid social media “expert” who really fired off that message. But his overall explanation/justification reveals someone who lives in a very tightly sealed bubble without much contact or understanding of the world beyond the rich people who populate his Vegas suites or the staff serving him at P.F. Changs or whatever chain restaurant he’s frequenting these days.
And for what it’s worth, I believe the part he said about not being aware of the racist nuts who used the “I Can Breath” phrase to openly mock a man being murdered and the justifiable protests touched off by his death. It’s unlikely he would have know about that because it’s unlikely he would be so curious about the problems facing anyone other than himself.
There’s a much wider-ranging discussion to be had about the how brands weigh in on various issues. I’m not getting into that. What I’m mostly taken aback by here, beyond the obvious tone deafness of the tweet, is the Raiders’ colossal unforced error. The NFL made its statement first, and most teams took their queue from that. I don’t know if the league’s statement or the teams that followed suit has any sincerity behind it, but, again, that’s beyond the scope of this missive. All the Raiders had to do was follow that, and the only thing we’d be talking about with regard to the Silver and Black is just how likely they are to fuck up their draft instead of confirming for the world that a wealthy old man with a bowl haircut and the people who serve him are so sequestered from reality that they would actually send that message into the world convinced it was actually good.
Wisely, the NFL has let the players take the lead on social justice issues over the last year. Of course, it only came after they blackballed one player for making a peaceful statement about racism deeply embedded in the legal system. That, and finally realizing that no matter what they did short of pissing off players to the extent that they wouldn’t play anymore would appease the big orange idiot and his followers who hate everything that doesn’t bow to their status at the top of their sick world view. Like soooooooo many people, Davis would do better to listen to others and try to understand the world beyond his suite that to just start firing off tweets. —RVB
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