We demand these 5 NFL trades!
In no small part because we want to see the chaos improved Seahawks and Cardinals teams would create this season. Also, Week 8 picks! And finally a definitive ranking of Halloween candy.
The 5 trades we want to see before the NFL’s deadline
The 2020 NFL trade deadline is already more interesting than most. Two veteran Pro Bowl defensive ends have already switched teams. Everson Griffen escaped the Cowboys’ sinking ship and decamped to the Lions, a team he’s tormented throughout his career. Carlos Dunlap, furious enough with the way the Bengals have managed his playing time to create an impromptu house listing on Twitter, followed soon after in a deal with the Seahawks.
That’s a good start. It could lead to a better finish. The 2020 season has been racked with injuries and COVID-19 opt-outs, leaving teams shorthanded in their quest to make the biggest playoff field in NFL history. Twenty teams are either on pace to make the postseason or a game or less behind in the playoff race. Their seller’s market will be robust; a salary cap downturn to an estimated $175 million suggests several highly paid veterans will be available in exchange for inexpensive draft picks.
Respected stars and fantasy league standbys like Stephon Gilmore, Will Fuller, Evan Engram, and many more could all be on the move. Many of these trades will make sense. A few — likely those from Giants general manager Dave Gettleman — will not.
So what theoretical moves are both realistic and capable of pushing a contender to the Super Bowl? I’ve got five trades in mind, ranging from modest pillagings of the New York franchises to the relocation of a pair of former All-Pros. Let’s dig in.
Evan Engram to the Arizona Cardinals
The Giants are shopping their starting tight end, even if they’re saying they aren’t. If that wasn’t evident by the team’s 1-6 record, it sure as hell was after a showcase Thursday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Engram was either targeted or handed the ball 12 times out of his 50 snaps in primetime, by far the most of any member of the New York receiving corps (breakout WR Darius Slayton, for comparison, had only four targets) and the most looks he’s had all season. Engram took this opportunity to boost his value on the trade market and … promptly crapped all over it:
He dropped a fourth-quarter pass that would have likely secured a Giants victory and had another drop on a slant route that led to a Philadelphia interception. His final stat line says eight total touches for 49 yards, but his actual impact on the game was much, much worse.
That said, he’s a valuable commodity in an NFL that’s trending harder and harder toward Air Raid-esque offenses. Engram is a legitimate burner capable of running a 4.42s 40-yard dash at 240 pounds. While his in-line blocking remains a work in progress, he’s able to split out to the slot and overpower cornerbacks, roast heavy-footed linebackers, or an ungodly combination of both. He’s useful both as a YAC machine near the line of scrimmage or as an up-the-seam threat.
Engram would look good next to a number of mobile quarterbacks in need of a punch-up. He could solve the injury-riddled Eagles’ issues at tight end if Gettleman were willing to ship him to a division rival. He could provide the kind of TE2 option Hayden Hurst had previously provided in Baltimore before being traded to Atlanta. But his best option may be to use his burner speed in a vertical offense built for a threat like himself.
That’s Arizona, where Kliff Kingsbury is harnessing Kyler Murray’s chaos into a possible playoff run. The Cardinals currently have Dan Arnold as their lead tight end, but he has only 11 catches in seven games so far. While the team has tried to work him into its vertical game — his average depth of target is just under 12 yards downfield — his average catch comes only 7.8 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Engram hasn’t been tasked with filling that kind of role as a Giant (he’s averaged only 5.4 air yards per target alongside Daniel Jones), but his track record at Ole Miss, where he averaged more than 14 yards per catch, suggests he could handle assignments down the field. He’s also extremely capable of snapping off short, horizontal routes and then making hay in the space created by deeper gambits from potential teammates like DeAndre Hopkins, Andy Isabella, and Christian Kirk.
The Cardinals need all the firepower they can get to stay afloat in a brutal NFC West. Engram isn’t a perfect fit for Kingsbury, but he’d give an already versatile offense a ton of new looks for opposing defenses to worry about.
J.J. Watt to the Packers
Unless a massive contract restructuring takes place, Watt won’t be back with the Texans in 2021. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year is set to earn $17.5 million, none of which is guaranteed. Releasing Watt or trading him before next season would clear the entirety of that from its salary cap, which is important because Houston is expected to be nearly $12 million over next year’s spending limit.
The logical next step in a rebuild that saw Bill O’Brien jettisoned after four weeks would be to cut the former All-Pro loose, even given his hero status in Houston. A trade to Green Bay would boost a pass rush that’s underwhelmed through the early stages of 2020. The Packers have only managed 15 sacks through six games, and their 28 quarterback hits ranks 27th in the league. The Texans’ longtime star hasn’t played up to his normal standard (and probably won’t at age 31), but he’s stayed healthy en route to three sacks, six QB hits, and six QB hurries — all of which would either rank first or second among Green Bay’s defenders.
Then there’s the whole homecoming angle. Watt grew up in Pewaukee, two hours south of Lambeau Field. He played his college ball at the University of Wisconsin after a brief detour at Central Michigan. The Packers would have to carve out some cap space to fit him in the lineup and he would likely be an eight-game rental, but he’d be another high-profile acquisition for a general manager becoming known for them. Brian Gutekunst made an uncharacteristic move for the franchise by shelling out nine figures in contracts to bring Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Adrian Amos to town. Trading for Watt would be an extension of that philosophy.
Stephon Gilmore to the Seahawks
A star Patriot cornerback famously cost Pete Carroll one Super Bowl. Another could be the key to winning another.
Seattle added a major piece to its passing defense by freeing Carlos Dunlap from the Bengals. Dunlap may no longer be a borderline All-Pro at age 31, but he averaged nine sacks per season the prior five years before being shuffled out of the Cincinnati pass rush this fall. He’ll have a chance to immediately prove his value in the NFC.
That helps, but the Seahawks need more talent to improve the league’s 30th-ranked passing defense. That could come from a New England franchise that’s barreling into a rebuild for the first time in two decades. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon GIlmore is slated to play the last season of a five-year, $65 million contract with the Patriots next year at a bargain salary of $7.5 million. He’s due for a significant raise, which may not sit well with a club looking for a fresh start — even if New England is set to have $70 million in cap space next season.
Gilmore is 30 years old and hasn’t been the play-disrupting menace he was last year. He’s allowing just a 53 percent completion rate and 74.0 passer rating in coverage, both of which are upper-tier numbers but also a solid dropoff from 2019 (50 percent, 44.1 rating allowed). He’s playing at a Pro Bowl level and has Super Bowl bonafides, and not even the lingering concern of a 2021 extension will be enough to scare needy teams away from inquiring about the man coverage maven.
Seattle may be at the top of that list. Opponents have thrown all over the Seahawks, chalking up a league-high 368 passing yards per game against them — most in the league by more than 30 yards. Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar have been solid in spurts but inconsistent. Adding a lockdown outside corner in Gilmore would allow Griffin to shift inside to the slot, where his speed and shiftiness may be a better fit. It would also reduce the team’s reliance on Tre Flowers, who was torched in a playoff loss to the Packers last winter and is currently allowing an 81.2 percent completion rate in coverage.
Gilmore would solidify the Seahawks’ status as the NFC’s top contender. While salary cap concerns are an issue — the team only has $1.2 million in spending space this year and $17 million next year — an impact defender may be too alluring to pass up. The current Patriot fits that bill perfectly, and alongside Jamal Adams could help usher in a new Legion of Boom in Seattle.
Neville Hewitt to the Browns
The Jets have no interest in winning games this fall — that would limit their chances to pick first in next year’s draft — so casting off veteran talent should be a priority at the trade deadline. Hewitt has been a rare positive in New York’s defense, but he’s also bound for free agency next spring. Trading him would make the Jets worse and bring in rebuilding assets for the near future. That’s good!
The Browns, conversely, are trying to drill through the impenetrable crust of their own shittiness and into the molten core of a playoff bid. Cleveland is 5-2 for the first time since being reborn in 1999 and pacing toward a wild card spot despite embarrassing losses to the Steelers and Ravens. Even though Baker Mayfield’s career remains a series of blindfolded throws at a dartboard of regret, shoring up a middling defense would mitigate the risk of a passing game implosion.
Hewitt could lend valuable experience to a roster filled with talented young prospects but few calming leaders to lead by example. The former undrafted free agent, whose stints in Miami and New York have prepared him for the eventual heartbreak of a Browns season, would present stability and a likely upgrade for a linebacking corps currently headed by Sione Takitaki, B.J. Goodson, and Mack Wilson.
Hewitt may not be a household name, but he’s a sideline-to-sideline tackler capable of providing support against both the run and pass. He’s held opposing quarterbacks to an 81.1 passer rating in coverage, which is valuable in an AFC filled with dynamic tight ends and pass-catching running backs. He’s also on pace to set career highs in both tackles and tackles for loss, which is more a function of being a full-time starter for the first time in his NFL life than anything else but, hey, he’s turning opportunity into production!
A Jets castoff may not be the kind of headlining move around which Browns fans can rally, but it would be a steady, low-cost acquisition for a unit in need of steady play and leadership. Hewitt can give Cleveland both. A place on a winning team instead of the Emmett Kelly painting he’s currently trapped in could unlock a new level to his play as well.
Golden Tate to the Ravens
Lamar Jackson’s passer rating has dropped from 113.3 to 99.2 this season. There’s a reason for that beyond just “teams are getting used to him.” Miles Boykin and Willie Snead, ostensibly the Ravens’ WR2 and WR3, have combined for a whopping 45 receiving yards per game so far this season. While Hollywood Brown has emerged as a valuable deep threat, teams — particularly the Chiefs — have found ways to limit his impact and effectively ground Baltimore’s wideouts.
Adding Tate would provide a steady short-range target who can feast when defenses double Brown. He can also create the space needed for the young speedster to thrive. Tate’s average catch the past two years with the Giants has come only 7.6 yards downfield, but he’s turned 47 of those 69 catches into either first downs or touchdowns. That’s the kind of efficiency opposing defenses cannot afford to ignore — exactly the kind of presence Boykin and Snead have struggled to create.
Tate would keep opposing safeties from cheating to cut off the Ravens’ deep routes as well. Brown’s catch rate has dropped in 2020 because Jackson has been eager to launch the ball his way; the second-year wideout’s average pass has come 16 yards downfield, which is second-longest in the NFL among all players with at least 35 targets. He’s on pace for a 1,000-yard season because he’s been able to catch roughly 60 percent of those throws; he could spring for even more if opponents suddenly have a second wide receiver to worry about.
The Ravens acknowledged their lack of wideouts by signing Dez Bryant, nearly three years removed from his last NFL reception, to their practice squad this week. Tate is roughly the same age as Bryant and has, you know, played meaningful football the last two seasons. He’s under contract for the next two seasons for a combined $14.5 million, but could be released next spring at a reasonable $4.7m dead cap hit. With an estimated $81 million in cap space in 2021, he’s affordable if he works out and affordable if he has to be cut as dead weight.
Plus, there’s a chance we’d get to see Tate fight Jalen Ramsey in a Rams-Ravens Super Bowl. Win/win. — CD
Falcons vs. Panthers
Week 8 picks
On Thursday night, the Falcons defied the odds and held on to a close lead for the entire second half of a game — yes, that even includes the fourth quarter! As such, the Post Route crew is headed into Sunday with an 0-1 record. However, this week’s guest, Adam Stites, is a perfect 1-0 so far.
Adam is a longtime Jaguars fan, and his Duval credentials are legit. A few years ago, he named his pup, an Australian cattle dog mix, Ramsey after Jalen Ramsey.
It can’t be easy being a Jaguars fan, so we decided to give him a break by asking him to pick games with us during Jacksonville’s bye week. Still, Adam is a professional who does not let personal bias get in the way of his predictions. He took the Jags’ two biggest rivals — the Bills and Titans — to win their respective games this weekend. So did the rest of us:
There was some dissent elsewhere, though. Three of us believe the Steelers will lose their first game, while RVB thinks they’ll stay undefeated. Adam doesn’t trust the Chargers not to Charger it up in Denver (fair). And the two contests that split us 50-50 were the same two that I struggled with the most: Rams-Dolphins and Raiders-Browns.
I’ve correctly called two straight Browns results, my longest streak of the season. Can I extend that week to three games? We’ll see. When has putting faith in the Browns ever backfired? — SH
The “It’s Tua time!” game: Rams vs. Dolphins
It’s not a surprise that Tua Tagovailoa is starting as a rookie, but the timing of his first start is. The Dolphins are 3-3 and are right in the thick of the AFC East race. Ryan Fitzpatrick had been playing fairly well, with a respectable 95 passer rating, a career-high 70.1 completion percentage, and an 82.5 QBR (fifth in the league).
That Brian Flores decided to switch to Tua now suggests to me that he’s not just healthy, but that he’s ready to light up some NFL defenses.
It’s a tall task in Week 8. Miami’s offensive line has allowed quarterback pressure on 28.6 percent of dropbacks this season and will have to line up against Aaron Donald next. But Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are proving their top-10 draft pick bonafides on a weekly basis, and Tua arguably has more natural talent than both of them. (Of course, both Herbert and Burrow had to wait a few weeks to earn their first win as a starter in the NFL.)
I don’t really have a gut feeling that the Dolphins will win. I’m just choosing to be optimistic about Tua’s chances. Either way, a combination of his skill set (big, accurate arm; RPO master) and a fresh Dolphins team coming off a bye will be a tough challenge for the Rams, who are traveling from the West Coast and playing on a short week. — SH
The “scariest story you can tell in three words” game: Jets vs. Chiefs
If you’re into celebrating Halloween a day late, we’ve got the most terrifying matchup on the entire 2020 NFL schedule this Sunday.
I don’t know why Jets-Chiefs is even happening. Why should any of the players, on either team, risk getting Covid or an injury for a game that will likely feature a heavy dose of Chad Henne by early in the fourth quarter?
The line on this game is Chiefs -19.5. I don’t bet, and I would never offer gambling advice to others, but if I did, I’d take the Chiefs against the spread too. — SH
The “IDK, toss a coin or something” game: Steelers vs. Ravens
These teams are so similar, and so good. They’re second (Ravens) and third (Steelers) according to Football Outsiders team efficiency rankings (Baltimore has a slight edge because of their special teams.) The Ravens are favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under is 46.5 points. But that feels a little low to me. Yeah, both teams have good defenses, but they can score damn near any way they want to. But to me, and the reason I’m making this slightly informed guess, is that the Steelers just seem to have more ways to get points, and I think that will be the difference here. — RVB
Halloween candy ranking
Here’s my definitive ranking of Halloween candy:
1. All Halloween candy
The end.
— SH