Unexpected pleasures and a requiem for beleaguered fantasy commissioners
Plus, our can't-miss Week 4 picks!
Think back for a second to when you were in elementary school and starting a new grade. With a mix of nerves and excitement, you walk into your new classroom, decked out in fresh threads from JcPenney. You breathe in that distinctive aroma of construction paper, industrial disinfectant, and pencil shavings.
You glance around the room and familiarize yourself with the layout before searching for the desk that’s home to a decorative placard bearing your name. When you don’t immediately spot it, anxiety starts kicking in — What if your teacher forgot about you? What if you accidentally walked into the wrong classroom? — and then, there it is. Your name in glitter, next to a sticker of a neon pineapple wearing sunglasses. You exhale and walk confidently over to your desk and set your designer series Trapper Keeper down. Out of the corner of your eye, you see a figure sit next to you and when you look over, there’s someone with the exact same designer series Trapper Keeper. You share a shy smile and suddenly, you have a new best friend.
Then the kid in front of you turns around and tries to start a conversation about horses. She *really* loves horses. But hello, can’t she see that you and your new best friend are trying to bond here? She’s probably perfectly nice and all, but would she please leave you alone? Surely she can go find another hippophile in this class and chat them up.
Anyway, I maybe got a little too into this metaphor, but that’s what a new season of the NFL can feel like. There’s a team that, seemingly out of nowhere, you’re really excited to check out each week. On the opposite end, there’s another team that, for whatever reason, you’re not feeling. And I don’t mean because they’re dreadful, like the Jets. No one, not even Jets fans, wants to watch the Jets. No, I mean teams that many other football fans like to watch, but they’re just not for you.
These are the teams that fit each of those descriptions for us, at least through the first few weeks of the season. — SH
Team I unexpectedly enjoy watching
Bills
If you’ve read, edited, or even barely glanced at my work in the past, you know I have a deep appreciation for Mike Vrabel’s Titans. Bringing back the old-school RB1 while simultaneously turning Ryan Tannehill into the league’s most efficient quarterback? HELL YES.
But since I’ve driven that point into the ground like a recurring SNL sketch, allow me to pivot. I expected the Bills to be a defense-first, grind-it-out football team highlighted by short bursts of deep ball play and social media drama, both catalyzed by Stefon Diggs. Instead, the Bills have scored more points than anyone in the AFC while Josh Allen — JOSH ALLEN — has emerged as one of the game’s top quarterbacks (in a small sample size).
Let’s talk about Allen. He improved from Year 1 to Year 2 in the NFL by curbing his instinct to throw deep passes into bad situations. He’s continued to tone down those impulses — his average air yards per throw have fallen from 10.2 to 8.7 to 8.4 this fall — while making his deep shots count more than ever. After completing just 25.8 percent of his deep attempts in 2018 and 2019, he’s made eight of 14 such throws through three games in 2020 — a 57 percent conversion rate that’s tied for second-best among starting QBs.
In 12 games as a rookie, the former Wyoming standout had a 10:12 TD:INT ratio. In three games in 2020, he’s got 10 touchdowns and a single interception. He’s also got the club’s only rushing touchdowns. That means EVERY time the AFC’s top offense has found the end zone, it’s revolved around JOSH ALLEN.
Phew.
Let’s also talk about how this team turns clear-cut wins into nailbiters. They trailed the rebuilding Dolphins in the fourth quarter of their Week 2 matchup before rallying for a three-point win. They let a 28-3 lead fall by the wayside in Week 3, only to rally and stun the Rams with a game-winning touchdown with 21 seconds to play. The Bills are, as the youths say, extremely extra. It’s delightful. — CD
Bengals
The Bengals are not a good team. They have yet to win a game — though they do have a tie! — and are staring down another top-10, perhaps top-five, draft pick. None of that is a surprise. What is surprising is how they’re making things interesting each week.
Joe Burrow deserves a lot of credit for that. He plays with the kind of maturity (so many empty formations!) and innate tenacity that few other rookie quarterbacks possess. That means never giving up on a play, even when Zac Taylor is screaming, “Throw it away!” Instead, Burrow laughs at his coach after doing this:
Burrow is keeping the Bengals competitive each week, something that we couldn’t say last year about this team. He rallied them back against the Chargers (only for the game to be lost on a missed kick), battled against the Browns, and went toe-to-toe against a veteran Eagles team. Now imagine what he could do with an NFL-caliber offensive line.
The Cincinnati defense remains a work in progress (but improved from last year), and Burrow is starting to develop a good rapport with fellow rookie Tee Higgins. You can see glimpses of what this team can be, and it’s that promise of a better future that I find myself drawn to, in spite of the Bengals still looking for their first win of the season. — SH
Cardinals
There used to be a pervasive feeling within the industry of old white men in pleated khakis covering the NFL that too much offense was a bad thing. The real heads wanted to see running backs ground and pound the ball with a healthy dose of running between the guards, a modest amount of drump-offs to a guy in the flat, and the occasional downfield throw. Defensive struggles were like fine wine to be savored.
Here’s the thing. That kind of football is boring. Fine wine just makes me fall asleep. The game is evolving, FINALLY, to where the kind of offensive innovations happening at the lower levels have seeped into the mainstream NFL. That’s why the Ravens and the Chiefs are so incredibly fun to watch; it’s also a big reason why one is the defending Super Bowl champ and the other is a betting favorite to win it all this year.
And now you have the upstart Cardinals, led by Kyler Murray. Arizona is a long way from competing at the level of those two teams, but it doesn’t matter. They’re incredibly fun to watch. Part of it is that is the need to go all out and do whatever it takes to run with much better teams. A conservative, “football guy” approach, and the Cardinals would finish the season with three wins. They have the perfect quarterback to do that with in Murray.
I never know what’s going to happen on any given offensive snap with this team. Sure, I can see they’re lined up in a classic 11 formation, and the next thing I know, Murray’s burning down the field with the ball in his hands. Every play is a surprise. That’s must-see TV. — RVB
Team I just can’t get into
Saints
Are the Saints fun anymore? This is a question I started asking myself sometime around last winter’s playoff loss to the Vikings. I still have no answer.
Drew Brees has gone from “surprisingly spry” to “kinda sad” as he’s devolved into a checkdown passer, especially without Michael Thomas in the lineup. Throws he used to be able to force through tight windows in a stunning display of arm strength no longer even get attempted. His average throw depth, once a solid 7.8 yards downfield in 2015, fell to 6.2 in 2019. This year, it sits at 4.6 yards — dead last among starting quarterbacks and a full yard behind second-worst QB Jared Goff.
Brees has attempted ONE throw of 20+ yards this fall, per SIS. This is the same exact number as teammate Taysom Hill, who has thrown one pass all season.
Let’s talk about Hill, who is making $16.3 million to run gadget plays that mostly fail to surprise defenses (4.7 yards per touch) while simultaneously depriving us of Alvin Kamara moments (7.6 YPT). This would be fine if FOX broadcasters weren’t contractually obliged to gush over the former BYU star every time he touches the ball. He may be a Swiss Army Knife in Sean Payton’s offense, but 18 of his 20 functions are just corkscrews.
But hey, that Brees-Brady rematch with two healthy WR corps should be pretty neat. — CD
Packers
Without looking it up, which team do you think is leading the NFL in scoring right now?
The answer? The Packers. That doesn’t seem right, does it? But it’s true. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Packers are averaging 40.7 points per game. And, just like last season when they somehow went 13-3, I still find them boring as hell.
Aaron Rodgers is off to his best start since 2016. Aaron Jones is second in the NFL in rushing. Six different players have caught a touchdown pass. The offensive line has allowed just two sacks. The Packers haven’t turned the ball over once. The defense is fine, not exceptional. They’re solid on special teams.
In all, Green Bay is a very efficient team in a soul-suckingly sterile way, like so many of the Tom Brady-led Patriots teams of the past decade. The Packers are good at everything but they don’t do anything well enough to make me care about them. They wait for their opponents to shoot themselves in the foot — like Taysom Hill fumbling on a critical second down — and pounce. Then Rodgers will draw the defense offside and get a free play out of it, connecting with a non-first-round wideout for a big gain. Yawn, we’ve seen this movie so many times before.
Coming into the season, I didn’t think the Packers had much of a chance of replicating last year’s success. They played more like a 10-win team that got a few lucky bounces go their way and then didn’t make any moves to get better in the offseason. I no longer think that, especially after looking at the rest of their schedule. They’ll rack up wins by holding on to the ball and making a big play at a pivotal moment, and I’ll hate it. But then they’ll meet a team that doesn’t put me to sleep, like the Seahawks, in the playoffs and lose. And that’s when I’ll finally enjoy watching the Packers. — SH
Broncos vs. Jets, in five words or fewer:
Poor, poor Sam Darnold.
Week 4 picks
For the second time the season, the entire panel is going into the weekend with a 1-0 record. Granted, it’s pretty easy picking a game when one of the teams is the Jets.
Even after their penalty-laden 37-28 loss to the previously winless Broncos, the Jets don’t plan on firing Adam Gase. This week, anyway. Take one look at their upcoming schedule and you know that could change quickly.
While the Broncos earned our confidence by virtue of not being the Jets, that’s not the only Week 4 matchup that has us all in agreement. In fact, we reached a consensus on 10 other games this weekend and it would’ve been 11 if Titans-Steelers hadn’t been postponed until later in the season.
Admittedly, we’re playing with fire here because chances are, we’re going to whiff on at least one of those games. If so, please direct all complaints to this week’s guest picker, Louis Bien.
Just kidding, do not do that. Louis is much too nice for that. Plus, he’s a longtime Lions fan, so he’s suffered enough.
Louis was a do-everything editor and writer at SB Nation for nine years. Currently, he’s the editor-in-chief of Publication to Be Named Later, an independent quarterly that aims to tell unique sports stories from some of your favorite writers on the internet. You can order the first edition right here, for as little as $1. You can also follow Louis on Twitter and sign up for his newsletter, I Dream In Polka Dot.
The “I really wanted to pick the underdog here, but it’s the Browns” pick: Browns vs. Cowboys
I like what Kevin Stefanski has done in Cleveland so far. Granted, it hasn’t been too much more than “let his young players cook and stay out of the way,” but you can see how he’s building Baker Mayfield back up. After Mayfield evolved into mid-range Jameis Winston in 2019, Stefanski has rebuilt Mayfield’s pocket presence and patience, allowing him greater latitude to scan the field and find open targets. His sack rate has dropped from 6.7 to 4.3 percent, and his completion rate has risen while his interception rate has moved in the opposite direction.
All these are good things for a team that sits over .500 for the first time since 2014. Cleveland isn’t fixed, but it has momentum. There’s a reason to believe things will be different for the Browns.
And that’s exactly where, for the past 50 years, everything goes to shit. Mayfield and a potent running game have the chops to carve up a Dallas defense that’s given up nearly 100 points in three weeks. An offensive line without La’el Collins and, possibly, Tyron Smith (neck) is ripe to be exploited by a solid Cleveland pass rush (eight sacks, 14 QB hits in September). Throw in the general malaise of the NFC East, and you’ve got the recipe for an upset.
But … but the Browns of it all. Man, I really want to believe, but decades of experience tells me that’s exactly when I shouldn’t. Can Stefanski buck history and get Cleveland off to a 3-1 start for the first time since 2001? Ugh. I don’t know. — CD
The “Nick Foles is fooling y’all again” pick: Colts vs. Bears
Folks, I saw Nick Foles win a Super Bowl. I know first hand he’s capable of putting together a good game or two. The problem is all the bad games he puts between those actually good ones. We saw a little bit of good Foles last week, when he took over for Mitchell Trubisky and led the Bears past… the Falcons. He still managed to throw a pick in that one, along with his three touchdowns, against Atlanta’s great-job-good-effort defense. The Colts defense is way better. And this is still Nick Foles. The Bears’ win streak ends this week. — RVB
The “can we postpone this game too?” pick: Eagles vs. 49ers
Let’s check out the latest injury report the Eagles:
Ick. Now, the 49ers:
Double ick.
I’m sure when the schedule makers assigned this to the Sunday Night Football timeslot, they thought it’d be a must-watch matchup between two reigning division champs instead of the winless Eagles limping into Levi’s Stadium against the 49ers’ MASH unit.
We’re all siding with the 49ers in this one, because we trust Nick Mullens more than Carson Wentz right now.
That’s 2020 for ya. — SH
A requiem for fantasy commissioners
This season was always going to be a mess. The MLB experience of non-bubbled national sports set a template for positive Covid tests and postponed or canceled games. The lack of a preseason meant a likely deluge of injuries that came to fruition in Week 2.
This all sucks for the NFL. Therefore, it sucks for the millions of fantasy football players out there as well. It sucks even more for the unlucky few tasked with running their leagues. Actually, it’s not that brutal for the organized, "I run this league like a business" fantasy commissioners. Instead, it’s a bloodletting for the ones who looked at a lazy crowd of 12 people, shrugged, and said "I guess I can figure out a draft time for everyone."
Low-key leaders whose previous duties had been to collect dues and figure out the one time per year 12 friends could carve out two consecutive hours for fake football now have to communicate rapid-fire rule changes on the fly. This will not be a problem for the three people who regularly check their message board and read “hottest add/drops!” three times per week. It will be for the person who threw Derrick Henry in his starting lineup Tuesday morning and then neglected to log back in until 12:50 pm Sunday afternoon.
I am in one of the latter leagues. Before the season, we voted to hold an IR spot for the first time ever, to be used only for players placed on the COVID-19 restricted list. And by "we," I mean 11 of us and not the one guy who decided to stash a non-corona'ed Deebo Samuel there, got called out for it, and promptly lost his mind about it four days later once he finally read the group chat and realized his cherished WR had been released to the waiver wire.
This set off a tempest of indignation. In this case, one that went on for 400+ words over five messages and 30+ minutes. Here are the excerpts, at least the ones I'm comfortable printing, censored when necessary:
Shoot, sorry I didn’t respond between 5 and 10 am while I was employed by an actual job that requires more investment than watching a vhs from my desk titled ‘Best of showering/upshorts creep shots’.
There are people at yahoo who are paid to set the parameters of what can be modified within a league. When the commissioner starts making new rules that are “sent to a vote” beyond the normal stipulations of universal fantasy football and instead are tailored to what benefits a very unique set of circumstances, paying members of a league should have to sit off on and attest to the new rules for the season
I was unaware of these rules of dipshittery. You texting me and telling me to make it easier by dropping Deebo on my own or else you’d do it for me literally meant nothing to me: I didn’t refuse to respond because I was “bucking the system”, I didn’t respond bc I thought u were attempting to be funny (which you suck at) and talking shit to me about the Doyle thing that I thought I’d fixed based on your dumbass rules
I can’t decide whether I want to drop a bunch of other key players for no reason as inopportune times and let the waiver wire feast, or whether I’ll just bench my entire team when I want to purposely f*ck up the standings of the league. But I’ll definitely do something. It wasn’t voted on before the season that an owner can’t do those things, right commish?
Go F*CK YOURSELF, and I hope this “by the books” season of rule following is as enjoyable as you intended
Some artists paint in the afternoon. This one paints at 3:50 AM on a Saturday morning.
Finding new, gaping contradictions in the wild is always exciting. In this case, that screed is museum quality, a Jackson Pollack splatter of impotent rage and ad hominem attacks flicked against the pristine canvas of an early fall morning in New England. Every valid point is wrapped in two insults and a threat. It is brilliant and undeniably stupid at once. It is the most important thing in one world and entirely meaningless in the rest. It is probable cause for a DUI field test and subsequent blood draw in most states.
The catalyst for this manifesto was, again, Deebo goddamn Samuel, who hasn't played a snap in 2020.
Despite the myriad personal insults, this was not taken personally. We, a group of Rhode Island scumbags, know exactly who we are. This is why the league is called the "Rhode Island Scumbag League." We lack nuance, politeness, and in many cases, sobriety. The league was created for moments like these, as well as to serve as methadone top-offs for the gambling degenerates among us unable to make the trip across state borders to Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
Still, it's tough not to feel bad for our commish. He instituted a common sense rule only to have it completely blanked by one-third of the league, then dragged into the spotlight reeking of Aviation gin and Marlboro Lights. Then, when he woke up early to feed his infant daughter on what was probably going to be a nice little Saturday — pumpkin patch, a couple of craft IPAs, maybe a brisket on the smoker, all done while wearing cargo shorts — he groggily scrolled through his phone, sighed, and realized his weekend was instead caked in bullshit.
It probably goes without saying, but don't be the guy who wakes up the rest of the league with 45 minutes of gchat slurs in the middle of the weekend. The NFL is a billion dollar company and it still allowed the Titans to play after a coach tested positive and currently seems baffled on what to do with the Tennessee-Pittsburgh game next. Holding someone up against Roger Goodell as any kind of standard is never a great idea, but if the league is content to shrug its way through a public health crisis, maybe don't get so mad if the person in charge of a $25/person league is similarly unsure.
2020 is chaos. Be patient. Be nice. Wait until at least the third sentence of your manifesto before calling your commissioner a pervert.