The perfect NFL trade
Also, welcome back Dez! And our Thursday night picks.
The Bills’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs was the perfect NFL trade
Everyone won, and now two cursed franchises are holding down playoff spots
Stefon Diggs was not happy in Minnesota.
This was a sentence that could have applied at various points between 2017 and 2019, but it was especially true toward the end of last season. The talented wideout and the franchise that drafted him suffered through what the Star Tribune called “irreconcilable differences” as head coach Mike Zimmer attempted to balance a dominant tailback, two Pro Bowl wide receivers, and a large bowl of ranch dressing disguised as a quarterback in the Vikings offense. Diggs was rumored to be unhappy with his targets, his route tree, and his role in general in Minneapolis.
Though Diggs played down these issues publicly, it had become clear a change of scenery was imminent. The wideout, only 26 years old and playing on a relatively cheap five-year, $72 million contract extension, was a commodity thanks to both his production and the team control that came with acquiring him. And so the Bills were forced to give up a package of draft picks headlined by a 2020 first-rounder in order to extract him from the Twin Cities and into a similarly snowy environment.
This was a great move for both parties.
The Bills got the WR1 for whom they’d been searching since the days of … Stevie Johnson? Sammy Watkins? Eeesh. Anyway, the Vikings offloaded an unhappy player for a solid return before any trade demands could tank his value. As a result, each team is currently slated for a playoff appearance (though it’s tenuous in Minnesota).
What did this trade mean for two potent passing offenses that came into 2020 with questionable quarterbacks? And who won this deal? Let’s take a look at not just the primary parties in this offseason deal, but what they’ve meant for their passing offenses as a whole.
Diggs has pushed Josh Allen (and the Bills’ offense) to new heights
Allen has unlocked the next level of his game as an NFL quarterback. His passer rating has risen from 85.3 in his second season as a pro to 105.9 this fall. The completion rate that stood out as a Tribute to the Troops-sized red flag as a college prospect has increased from the 50s to 69.9 percent, fourth-best among starting quarterbacks. He’s set career highs in touchdown passes and passing yards by a wide margin … and he’s only 12 games into the season.
Credit belongs to a player whose tools had exceeded his production early in his career. Allen spent his first two seasons in the league looking like a top-gear quarterback until he had to take snaps in pressure situations. This could have defined him (as it currently threatens to do with Jets QB Sam Darnold), but he rebuffed that narrative with incremental improvements along the way.
That work manifested into an explosion in 2020.
His bad throw rate clocked in at dead last in the NFL as a rookie at 25.7 percent (Josh Rosen, who finished second-worst, landed at 20.5 percent). Allen’s 13.5 rate this season ranks SIXTH-BEST among all starters. This has been a function of taking fewer crazy risks downfield — his average passing distance is down from 11 yards to eight in that span — but mostly it’s the product of a hyped prospect whose progress has been a best case scenario of player development.
Then you add Diggs into the mix, and YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING DRASTIC GO UP.
While the surface numbers are great — a league-leading 90 receptions, 1,000+ yards, and a catch rate nearing a career high — the value the newly added WR1 brings sends ripples through the rest of the roster. Allen has been slightly more efficient targeting Diggs (a 103.9 passer rating on balls thrown his way thanks, in part, to eight drops) as he was throwing to then-top wideout John Brown in 2019 (99.2). But Allen’s issue last year wasn’t throwing to his top guy; it was getting the ball to everyone else when that guy was covered.
With Diggs in tow, almost everyone in the Bills lineup has gotten better looks and bigger, more efficient gains. The only holdover among main WR/TE targets *not* to see a growth in passer rating when targeted is Dawson Knox, whose number dropped by fewer than two points. The improvements elsewhere, particularly for guys lower on the depth chart like Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Tyler Kroft, and 2020 rookie Gabriel Davis, have been significant.
Diggs’ value goes just beyond his ability to stretch the field and boost Josh Allen to new heights. He also does the little things that lifts his offense, which was on full display Monday night when he cleared space for Knox to turn a short pass into a touchdown:
These developments aren’t all laid at Diggs’ feet. There have been other roster upgrades, new offensive game plans, and other factors that have all contributed to Buffalo’s rising tide. Still, the Bills have seen their passing game DVOA rise from 20th in the NFL in 2019 to fourth in 2020. That’s a massive jump, and the first reaction would be to look at what changed this past offseason. Clearly, Diggs’ arrival has been a major factor in the Bills’ rise to AFC contender.
The Vikings got what they needed at the top of their depth chart
Minnesota acquired low-cost assets in exchange for Diggs, which left general manager Rick Spielman with work to be done. Adam Thielen needed a proper receiving threat to keep teams from automatically double-teaming him. Dalvin Cook needed a field-stretching presence to prevent opponents from stuffing the box and clogging his running lanes. Kirk Cousins needed a wideout who could make the decision to pay him $96 million guaranteed through 2022 look reasonable.
Fortunately, the Bills’ trade package was loaded with picks in a draft absolutely flush with wide receiver talent. LSU standout Justin Jefferson was the fifth wideout off the board when Minnesota selected him with the first-round pick the Bills had shipped westward (22nd overall). He’s emerged as the top talent in a class filled with future stars.
Through 12 games (10 starts) Jefferson has 1,039 receiving yards — or two more than Diggs at this point in the season. He’s been the exact kind of long route counterpunch Minnesota had searched for in order to create space for both Thielen and Cook. His 11.9 air yards per reception ranks higher than NFL deep threats like Will Fuller and Tyreek Hill. Cousins, who had a 107.1 passer rating when targeting Diggs last season, has a 122.1 rating when he dials up his rookie receiver’s number this fall.
(also, what the hell is the title of this highlight? How can Justin Jefferson look *too* good? Answer me, NFL social media team)
The Vikings are 4-2 when Jefferson has at least four catches and 2-4 when he doesn’t. But while Diggs’ teammates have thrived in the space he’s created in 2020, the targets further down the team’s receiving wishlist haven’t had a similar rise:
Cousins has taken a step backward in a career where his numbers have always looked better than his play on the field, but there’s a silver lining to his uneven play. While Allen has tamped down his instincts to take risks and throw long, Cousins has gone in the opposite direction and embraced bigger risks with Jefferson in the lineup. He’d averaged 7.3 air yards per throw in his first two seasons as a Viking, but dialed that up to 8.7 this fall. He’s never thrown more than 58 deep passes (20+ air yards) in a season with Minnesota, but is on pace for 70 such attempts in 2020.
The bad news is his completion rate and passer rating have both dipped from his 2019 highs and his 3.3 percent interception rate is the highest of his career as a full time starter. The good news is he’s getting reps in situations that could be the tipping point in important games this winter. Cousins remains a frustrating passer, but much like in last year’s playoff win over the Saints, he’s capable of giving you enough hope to stick to his hype train each offseason.
What’s the lesson here? Is it that Diggs does a better job of creating space for his teammates? That opposing defenses aren’t giving rookie Jefferson the kind of focus they’d given the more established Diggs the year prior? That the Bills have more playmaking depth than the Vikings? That Kirk Cousins is kinda/sorta bad? Honestly, it’s probably a little of all four, which is an area Minnesota will have to monitor as 2020 rolls into 2021.
Whatever Jefferson’s overall value to the Vikings, it doesn’t stop when he leaves the field. His rookie contract will cost the team just about $10.5 million in salary cap space between 2021 and 2023 -- or roughly $24 million less than Diggs is scheduled to make over that same span. That’s immensely valuable for a franchise that’s been mired in salary cap hell the past two seasons.
Minnesota was forced to dismantle a once-potent defense due to cap concerns in 2019 and 2020. Even with Jefferson swapped in for Diggs, the Vikings are still projected to be more than $5 million over a $178 million cap for 2021. The most obvious cost-cutting moves could further diminish that defense — signing Harrison Smith to an extension would help reduce his $10m+ cap hit, but other veterans like Shamar Stephen and Michael Pierce may be moved — which would only make the team’s passing game more important.
Jefferson wasn’t alone in bringing low cost help to the Minnesota lineup. The rest of the trade packaged he headlined developed into productive Michigan State defensive end/linebacker Kenny Willekes (36 tackles for loss in his last two seasons in college, but hasn’t played in 2020 due to injuries), two 2021 fourth round picks, and a 2021 fifth-rounder. None of those players or picks is certain to contribute, but the Vikings could turn that haul into an affordable starter or two for the near future.
***
This is all a very long-winded way to say this trade was a win-win. The Bills got the veteran wideout who could spur improvement from a young quarterback while making the weapons around him better. The Vikings got a younger, cheaper version of the player they traded away and kept their offense from sustaining any significant downturn. The early edge goes to Buffalo, in large part due to the ridiculous growth Allen’s shown — but even if Jefferson only keeps his 2020 pace without making significant improvements he could still swing the deal in Minnesota’s favor over time.
Either way, each side is happy with the deal. And they should be for years to come. — CD
Ravens vs. Cowboys, in five words or fewer
Now, just a few more thoughts ...
It’s been a long road back to the NFL for Dez Bryant, who finally made his return to an active roster a few weeks ago. On Tuesday night, he was about to get his chance to play his former team when he was pulled off the field during warmups because his Covid test, which had previously been inconclusive, came back positive.
It’s understandable why Bryant was emotional about the development. He also raised an important question:
According to ESPN, the NFL and NFLPA weren’t concerned about Bryant having any high-risk close contacts. Meaning his maskless conversations and hugs with members of the Cowboys didn’t count because they were “brief”:
Why was Bryant even on the field? No one knows:
But the game, which had been pushed back to accommodate Baltimore’s schedule after its coronavirus outbreak, went on (and the Ravens had to play a man down because the NFL wouldn’t allow them to activate another player). Lamar Jackson, who contracted the virus two weeks ago, was back in the lineup and accounted for three touchdowns despite still dealing with Covid aftereffects:
None of this is very reassuring!
The game itself was uncomfortable to watch, mostly because it was yet another reminder of how the NFL doesn’t really care about player safety, but also because of other factors, like Troy Aikman ripping his old team (and not unfairly!). Bryant ended up having the right idea on how to get through watching it:
Thursday Night Football picks
We have a Thursday night Super Bowl rematch on tap this week, with the New England Patriots traveling to Stan Kroenke’s gilded palace of sports and entertainment for a game against the team formerly known as the St. Louis Rams (which was formerly known as the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Rams before that).
While the Patriots have lost most of their dynasty era luster — ya hate to see it, folks — they’re not exactly a pushover. And with Jared Goff under center for the Rams, you really never know if the offense is going to get rolling or if he’s going to turn the ball over four times. It seems to alternate from week to week.
Anyway, this week our panel is joined by one of my oldest cronies in the blogging game, Joe McAtee, otherwise known as 3k. I’ve known Joe since the earliest days of Turf Show Times, like all the way back when Scott Linehan was the Rams’ bright future and Sam Bradford was just a dude at Oklahoma.
No picks for the Pats, which seems about right. Whatever limitations come from having Goff at QB, is nicely balanced out by a defense that includes Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. We’ll be back with our other Week 14 picks on Friday. — RVB